Speaker · Updated
Josh Brown: latest market views
Ritholtz Wealth Management
Summary
Josh Brown is co-founder and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a CNBC contributor, and co-host of The Compound and Friends podcast.
Chorus has 173 views from Josh Brown across 16 episodes on The Compound and Friends, CNBC Halftime Report and Prof G Markets since September 29, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Alphabet, Amazon.com, Micron Technology and NVIDIA; bearish on Anthropic.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- AlphabetBullish ·
- Amazon.comBullish ·
- AnthropicBearish ·
- Micron TechnologyBullish ·
- NVIDIABullish ·
- Paramount SkydanceBullish ·
- SandiskBullish ·
- Space Exploration TechnologiesBullish ·
- Booking HoldingsBullish ·
- Expedia GroupBullish ·
- MicrosoftBullish ·
- OktaBullish ·
- Expeditors International of WashingtonBullish ·
- FortinetBullish ·
- IQVIA HoldingsBullish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Buybacks, 401(k) money and fee-based wealth management create a relentless bid that dampens volatility.
Josh revisits his 2014 'relentless bid' thesis. Three forces drive it: buybacks shrink the float, 401(k) money keeps coming in, and brokers have shifted from commission trading to fee-based ETF allocation. The fee-based shift puts trillions into the same large stocks on a recurring basis. He argues this is why the VIX evaporates quickly after each spike, since flows arrive within a couple of weeks.
“I argued it's a volatility dampener. There's more guaranteed money into the same 500 stocks every time people allocate to their wealth accounts.”at 27:26
The Compound and Friends: The Bulls Are Trapped with Alex Altmann ·
A prolonged two-year bear market is impossible without a recession, because household wealth is tied to stocks.
Josh argues that stock market and economy are now closely linked. Retirement plans, high-income households' 401(k)s and pay tied to recently listed stock all depend on share prices. Because household spending depends on account values, a long bear market would drag the economy into recession, so a two-year bear market without a recession is not possible.
“You can't have a prolonged two year bear market without a recession. It's impossible because everybody's wealth effect and everyone's mentality is based on how much money their accounts are worth.”at 31:02
The Compound and Friends: The Bulls Are Trapped with Alex Altmann ·
The Fed reacts to equity drawdowns and reverses policy when markets overstep, as in 2018.
Josh says the Fed monitors the stock market, through financial conditions indicators and trend measures like the ten-month moving average. In 2018, after the market fell into a roughly 20% drawdown, the Fed reversed course on Christmas Eve and within a month was talking about cutting rates again. He takes this as evidence the Fed knows when it has tightened too far.
“I think they know when they've overstepped. I watched that play out in 2018.”at 31:36
The Compound and Friends: The Bulls Are Trapped with Alex Altmann ·
AnthropicBullish
Anthropic's revenue growth is remarkable, and its SEC-filed revenue figures are credible.
Anthropic's revenue rose from about $1.2B to $16.3B in the first half of 2026 versus the same period a year earlier, a roughly 1300% increase. Off a low base, but still a stunning pace for a three-year-old company, and on track for more than $30B in its third year. Josh acknowledges customer concentration and questions how the ARR calculation works, but argues that because the figures are in an SEC filing, they should be treated as a reasonably accurate reflection of sales. Even bears would have to admit the growth is impressive.
“So it's off a low base, but it's a 1300% increase for the first six months of this year versus the first six months of last year, the comparable period.”at 4:40
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
AnthropicUncertain
Anthropic's moat is unproven; durability of its revenue matters more than growth rate.
Josh argues the real bear concern is not that headline growth will fall from 1300% but whether the platform is sticky. The key question is how easily a next model that is 10% more capable can take away customers and workflows. He says he cannot say definitively whether Anthropic has a moat, and that this is what gives him pause before agreeing it is worth $2T right away. He compares this with SpaceX, Nvidia and Apple, whose moats he calls unassailable. Against that, he notes Anthropic's enterprise business is further along and less price-sensitive than ChatGPT's, and that momentum favours Anthropic.
“Is there a moat? And I wish I could tell you definitively one way or the other, but that's the thing that might give me pause in saying, yeah, you're right.”at 7:07
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
AnthropicBullish
Anthropic's $80B headline loss is accounting noise; operating loss is narrowing and spending is a land grab.
The headline loss of about $80.7B reflects how financing and compute are accounted for, so it is not a real cash loss. The number that matters to investors is the operating loss, which fell to $693M from $2.1B a year earlier. Josh likens this stage to a land grab, as John Malone did with cable systems and Bezos did with e-commerce. In such periods, the priority is scale, with profits following. He says that if Dario projected 25% margins now, with OpenAI, Gemini and free open models competing, that would be the wrong move. He sees the battle as potentially a 30-year contest, with year three properly about losing money but making it count.
“the operating loss is the thing that people in New York or people that are managing money are more focused on. And that number, $693,000,000, down from 2,100,000,000 a year earlier. That is the more important number.”at 10:16
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
AnthropicBullish
Anthropic will likely raise $100–140B in its IPO later this month.
Josh says that if you do not think Anthropic will raise $100–140B later this month when it goes public, that would be a huge problem. He thinks it probably will, and he argues that the shareholders who have invested are not widows and orphans or a Scottish insurance company. They are investors like SoftBank, who expect the company to chase scale. His view is that the expected raise is consistent with what those investors want.
“if you don't think that they're gonna raise a 100 to 140,000,000,000 later this month when they go public, then that's a huge problem. But if you think that they probably will, and I do”at 13:49
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
Space Exploration TechnologiesBullish
SpaceX has an unreplicable moat in rockets, launch and Starlink; no real competitor.
SpaceX is the blueprint for going public at a valuation of $1–2 trillion because what Musk built cannot be replicated: the rockets, the payloads, the cost of getting satellites into space and the Starlink network, which now has about 200 million users. Rocket Labs, the only other public space company, is tiny by comparison, with two launch sites and a few rockets a year. Josh uses this to explain what makes a trillion-dollar company: a moat that is almost one-of-a-kind rather than merely hard to compete with.
“SpaceX is sort of like the blueprint for how do you go public worth 1,000,000,000,000 or 2. People understand that what Elon has built is not replicable by any other company.”at 21:07
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
AnthropicBullish
Anthropic's cash position is strong, with most of its capital raised still on hand.
Per the S-1, Anthropic held $112.4B in cash and equivalents as of June 30, about 80% of the $141B it has raised over six years. It also has about $19B in securities and short-term investments, some of which are money market funds. Josh argues the company has managed its capital well, combining the money it raised with cash generated by the business against the costs of running it. This supports the view that it is not about to run out of money despite heavy spending.
“They said in the S1, they have 112,400,000,000 in cash and cash equivalents as of June 30. That's 80 percent of the 141,000,000,000 that they've raised over the course of six years”at 26:00
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
Per-token AI costs fall, but usage growth means total compute spending keeps rising, showing sustainable demand.
Josh agrees that per-token costs are plunging, as they have throughout the history of technology. But usage is growing so fast that total dollars spent on compute are not falling; they are rising. He argues this is a sign of how sustainable the AI demand boom is, because the services are so popular and in such demand that usage outpaces price declines.
“The thing is the usage is going up by so much that the overall dollar amount being spent on compute does not fall, it goes up.”at 32:31
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
Enterprise AI adoption & AI software
Enterprises are rationing AI token spend and can swap providers, a real bear case for AI vendors.
Josh describes the 'real bear case' for AI vendors. Companies pushed AI on employees with little control, and token use spiralled: agents ran for days, and Uber blew through its annual token budget in the first quarter. Companies will now impose company-wide AI budgets and rationalise token use, which Josh calls running a business rather than experiments. Open-weight and free models mean there are essentially no switching costs. When quarterly results miss, Fortune 500 finance teams will trace the shortfall back to the money paid to Anthropic and look for a cheaper harness.
“Number one, there's gonna be some sort of budget on AI use company wide, and they're gonna have to make decisions like, okay, this department gets x dollars in budget for AI.”at 35:19
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
Europe or Asia could force US frontier labs out or require EU-conforming versions; fault lines are unclear.
Brown says the Europeans could decide they don't want US frontier labs in their country, which would require a different version of the product that conforms to EU rules. He says this could happen in Asia too. He thinks the industry is very early in this, and that the true political fault lines are not yet known. He uses this as a reason the market is not pricing in the existential and political risks.
“the Europeans decide that they don't really want this in their country... There has to be a different version that conforms to the EU, and this could happen in Asia too.”at 44:13
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
Space Exploration TechnologiesBullish
The company's IPO is timed as enthusiasm peaks, which should help the first days of trading.
Brown argues the company is going public just as excitement around it is peaking. He thinks the timing is good, since it bodes well for the first few days of trading. He contrasts this with the staggered-liquidation structures used in Cerebras and then SpaceX, which he says were learned and will apply to the Anthropic IPO. He concludes the company's bankers nailed the timing. He is focused on the near-term trading, not long-run returns, and his point that enthusiasm will be peaking implies more caution beyond that.
“I think the enthusiasm around this company will be peaking right as it goes public... I actually think they nailed the timing.”at 45:23
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
AI and tech are not a valuation bubble; at most an earnings bubble, with semis driving growth.
Brown argues the market is an anti-bubble because it prices in growth skepticism every day. The only credible claim is an earnings bubble, meaning tech profitability is unsustainable, not a valuation bubble. Tech earnings are estimated to grow 65.6% year over year this quarter, but only 24.9% excluding semiconductors and semi equipment, so semis are the biggest contributors. Western Digital and Oracle beat EPS estimates, yet the SMH semiconductor ETF has had no 52-week highs since July, with no above-average reading in new highs. He calls this inconsistent with a bubble.
“It is an anti bubble. The only thing that you can credibly say is that it's an earnings bubble... You cannot say it's a valuation bubble.”at 48:35
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
SandiskBullish
SanDisk is among the cheapest stocks in the market, with a PEG of 0.08; no bubble in memory names.
Brown names SanDisk as one of the three cheapest stocks in the market, with a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.08. He contrasts this with a bubble, where he says the figure would be around five. The valuation is his evidence that the semis rally is not a valuation bubble.
“SanDisk has a price to earnings growth or peg ratio of 0.08. 0.08. In a bubble, it's like five.”at 50:17
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
Micron TechnologyBullish
Micron is cheap at about 5x earnings with a PEG near 0.1; no bubble in memory stocks.
Brown argues the semiconductor complex is not in a bubble and cites valuations as evidence. Micron's PEG ratio is 0.10 and it trades at about five times earnings. He uses these as the cheapest names in the market, pointing to how far these stocks are from bubble-level pricing. This sits within his broader argument that semis are driving tech earnings growth while the stocks still trade cheaply.
“Micron, point one o... Micron is selling at five times earnings.”at 50:29
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
NVIDIABullish
Nvidia's forward P/E of 15 is the lowest valuation in history; it is not in a bubble.
Brown says Nvidia trades at about 15 times forward earnings, which he believes is the lowest forward valuation he has seen for the stock. He is not claiming it should trade at 30 times, but asks whether 15 is right. If the stock is at 15, any bubble would have to sit in this year's earnings, not in the valuation. He argues the market is pricing Nvidia's growth skeptically rather than in a bubble.
“NVIDIA's forward PE is 15 times earnings. This is the lowest valuation, I think, in history on a forward earnings basis, you have ever had the opportunity to buy Nvidia.”at 50:45
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
Amazon.comBullish
AWS is the winner if neoclouds fail; its backlog and growth are accelerating.
Brown argues that if debt-funded neoclouds shake out, hyperscalers gain. AWS grew 28% in the April quarter and 37% in the July quarter. It reported $496B of backlog at its last report, up from about $200B three quarters earlier. If neoclouds fold, AWS is ready to serve the demand and its backlog will keep growting. Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud also benefit, and he asks what the stock market cares about more, Nebius and CoreWeave or Microsoft and Alphabet.
“If you're AWS... AWS hit 28% growth in the April quarter, 37% growth in the July quarter, they reported $496,000,000,000 in backlog for AWS the last time they reported.”at 53:59
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
AlphabetBullish
Alphabet, with Gemini and its own compute, may matter strategically as investors value end-to-end AI.
Brown says only two publicly traded companies have a premier model and their own compute: Alphabet with Gemini and Meta with Muse. He thinks investors may come to care about a company with AI end to end, one that sells to consumers with its own product and supplies the compute behind it. He says that is not actionable today, but Gemini's position could become strategically important. He contrasts this with Anthropic, which will spend around $900B on compute without supplying any of it.
“At some point, investors might actually care about a company that's got AI end to end.”at 55:36
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
AnthropicBearish
Anthropic lacks its own compute despite planned $900B spending, a structural weakness versus integrated rivals.
Brown contrasts Anthropic with Alphabet and Meta, which control both their model and compute. He says Anthropic is going to spend about $900B on compute but will not supply any of it unless it spends heavily to build its own. That leaves it dependent on others' infrastructure, which he presents as a disadvantage against vertically integrated rivals.
“Unfortunately for Anthropic, they're gonna spend $900,000,000,000 on compute. They're not gonna supply any of it unless they spend a lot of money to build it.”at 55:57
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
Amazon.comBullish
Robots-as-a-service could become a major Amazon business in about three years, like AWS.
Brown likes Galloway's idea and thinks robots-as-a-service is about three years away. He draws a parallel with AWS, which began as internal infrastructure before being opened to others. He suggests Amazon could offer a fleet of millions of capable robots that customers rent rather than own. He says it is not impossible this becomes important.
“I like that idea. I think it's three years from now, but robots as a service, the same way that AWS was initially conceived as being for internal use.”at 1:00:48
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
Large caps keep winning; hardship becomes moat for the biggest companies, which take share.
Brown argues that the S&P 500 is not really corporate America, since the index holds the best companies in each category, with a minimum market cap near $25B and proven profitability. Compliance costs, energy costs, trade issues and international law are headaches for average firms but moats for the biggest, which can staff experts or circumvent them. Mag Seven companies are nation states with ticker symbols. Over 15 years, the Russell 2000 has lagged the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ 100 the Russell 3000, which reflects those advantages. He says the S&P 500 is driven by earnings from 50 or 60 companies, so the question for investors is whether something is good for the Mag Seven or the S&P 100.
“The Mag-seven, these are basically nation states with ticker symbols.”at 1:03:22
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Data center buildout creates millions of construction jobs; unions gain, so backlash is muted.
Brown says Anthropic's spending of about $800–900B on compute has to be built, which means millions of jobs. He argues the construction unions have not spoken out against data centers because the buildout guarantees employment and could let them double membership. He thinks this ripple effect means even without stock options for employees, there is work for a million people, with the dignity and pride that come with it.
“There's a ripple effect anytime a company like Anthropic comes along and spends money the way that they're spending... it's employment for a million people.”at 1:10:25
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
NetflixUncertain
Netflix's stock slump reflects a time-spent comparison with YouTube it cannot control; the business is fixable.
Brown bought Netflix at about $100 (down from $140), added in the 80s and 60s, sold half in the 70s before earnings, and says it is now around 63, calling it a slow bleed. He argues the problem is that Wall Street fixates on time spent, where YouTube has about twice Netflix's viewing time and has lapped it. He discounts how meaningful that is, since autoplay inflates YouTube's hours. Netflix is hugely profitable (around $3B a quarter) and expanding internationally, and its weak programming can be fixed with a $20B annual budget. Premium content that viewers actively choose should signal sticky subscriptions and future cash flows, so Netflix should double down on quality. Trying to be YouTube-light with podcasts and video games will not work. He cites East of Eden as the best thing they've made in five years.
“I think the big problem for Netflix, they're being compared to something that they can't do anything about.”at 1:12:17
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
Paramount SkydanceBullish
Paramount will double down on HBO premium, must-have programming that can support higher prices.
Josh argues Paramount has gotten the memo and will double down on HBO. He says it will make premium-quality shows people cannot live without, which lets it raise prices. Podcasts that anyone can watch on YouTube cannot support that pricing power. He cites the hire of an executive from Disney with a long studio-system background and big sports deals. He says the programming must be something people get upset about missing when everyone is talking about it, pointing to Netflix's House of Cards in 2013 as the template for reinventing a platform. He thinks Paramount can do that again. He rejects the idea that a YouTube-style approach is the solution.
“Paramount's gonna double down on HBO. You'll see premium quality stuff that you can actually raise the prices for because people can't live without it.”at 1:14:40
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
S&P 500 likely peaks in December; year-end rally setup as bull market, midterms and Fed hike pass.
Josh's base rate: when the S&P 500 is up double digits at the midpoint of the year, the year's high almost always falls in December or January, based on about a hundred years of data. He says this is not science but a lot of years of data, and he notes that 2026 is a bull market. October's seasonal volatility has already happened, with real corrections, semis down 29% and some big industrials down 30%. The Fed hike is done, bond yields are backing off and oil is not racing higher. He expects the midterms to pass and investors to be up about 15% by Thanksgiving, and he points to the biggest IPOs in history being priced as part of the setup. He would buy something. His main risk is an exogenous shock nobody sees coming.
“When the S and P is up double digits through the midpoint of the year, you have an 89% chance that the high of the year will take place in December.”at 1:17:13
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
AlphabetUncertain
Chatbots now pose real search competition for Alphabet, but the monetization answer is unresolved.
Brown says the early fear that users would bypass Google for Claude, ChatGPT and Perplexity did not play out at first, since Alphabet leaned into Gemini and AI summaries. He now thinks cannibalization may be arriving, because ChatGPT and Claude have larger user bases and Google faces competition in search for the first time. He does not call it catastrophic and says the market has not decided. He notes query growth is at a five-year high, so people still use Google. But he says AI Mode queries monetize at a lower absolute dollar level, and Google has to find a new model to monetize answers as well as it monetized clicks to sites like Expedia.
“And maybe now that we've got a larger user base on ChatGPT, on Claude, maybe all of a sudden it's becoming apparent. Hey. Look. Google has competition for the first time in search in its entire history.”at 1:58
CNBC Halftime Report: Tech Earnings Weigh on the AI Trade 10/29/26 ·
AlphabetBearish
Alphabet is going free-cash-flow negative and selling stock instead of buying back, with no clear playbook.
Brown says a raised buyback would be the obvious move in a normal environment, but that is not the environment now. He argues these companies are deliberately going free-cash-flow negative to fund AI spending. After spending a decade buying back stock, they are now issuing stock and going to the market for a reason. He says the at-the-market offerings act like a shelf that caps any rally. He says he does not know what the executive playbook is, and notes this was the second or third consecutive quarter with no buyback announcement.
“We're not in a normal environment. These companies are deliberately going free cash flow negative. They spent ten years buying back stock. Now they're selling stock.”at 16:20
CNBC Halftime Report: Tech Earnings Weigh on the AI Trade 10/29/26 ·
MicrosoftBullish
Microsoft is reading the room on AI capex by not stacking more spending on top of prior plans.
Brown says Microsoft did the same thing Oracle did by holding spending steady rather than going further out on capex. The capex number was lower than expected because the delivery timing on a data center slipped. Ignoring that noise, he says Microsoft is not adding another large tranche on top of prior commitments, and he credits the company with reading the room.
“Ignoring all that noise, what they're not doing anymore is throw 20,000,000,000 on top of 27. They're reading the room.”at 19:00
CNBC Halftime Report: Tech Earnings Weigh on the AI Trade 10/29/26 ·
Amazon.comUncertain
Amazon's blocking of outside shopping bots is a real concern, but its own Rufus bot may defend it.
Brown says Amazon is blocking outside personal bots from hitting the site or completing transactions. He thinks that concern is absolutely true, but he does not know how big it is or how quickly it will show up in the numbers. Amazon's answer is Rufus, its shopping bot in the site and app. Brown says he is not sure Amazon cannot match or partner with outside agents if users pick a better one, so the threat is not settled.
“Well, Amazon, basically is blocking other people's personal bots from hitting the site or completing transactions because I think that is absolutely true. That is a concern. I don't know how much of a concern it is or how quickly, like, it'll show up in the numbers.”at 21:21
CNBC Halftime Report: Tech Earnings Weigh on the AI Trade 10/29/26 ·
143 older views from Josh Brown are on the episode pages, and all of them are a question away in your AI with Chorus.
Shows
- The Compound and Friends · 11 episodes
- CNBC Halftime Report · 4 episodes
- Prof G Markets · 1 episode
Ask your AI what Josh Brown thinks
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