Closing Bell 10/23/26

OpenAI

Across the shows: 21 speakers in other episodes, 10 bullish and 17 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Alex Kantrowitz · Big TechnologyBearish

  OpenAI missing its $1.4T target suggests strategic backers have tapped out.

  Kantrowitz says a round below the $1.4 trillion target suggests companies have invested all they can in OpenAI. The lead investors were from the UAE, and Microsoft and Nvidia did not take part, which he reads as those companies having made their play. He cites a Financial Times report that investors show indigestion, after previously clamoring for OpenAI stock that now lands with a thud. He concludes there is a limit to how much more money the company can raise privately before its IPO.

  “the fact that they didn't raise at their target does suggest that companies have basically invested all they can into OpenAI.”at 28:08

Anthropic

Across the shows: 41 speakers in other episodes, 24 bullish and 43 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Alex Kantrowitz · Big TechnologyBearish

  Any Anthropic IPO delay signals slowdown and weak expected stock performance.

  Kantrowitz says Anthropic is going public in an uncertain market where investors are unsure how they feel about the AI trade. Its IPO will depend on the latest numbers, and any sign of a slowdown in Claude Code or Cowork revenue would be a problem. He argues a delay would suggest Anthropic believes its stock will not perform well at listing. He adds that if OpenAI shows better enterprise growth first, Anthropic would be on the back foot, and a delay would add more doubts about the AI trade.

  “It suggests slowdown. It suggests that it believes that its stock isn't gonna do as well when it initially comes out.”at 29:41

Alphabet

Across the shows: 10 speakers in other episodes, 9 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Alex Kantrowitz · Big TechnologyBullish

  Google is well placed across the AI stack if it balances cloud compute against AI research.

  Kantrowitz says Google has a fast-growing cloud business, with Google Cloud growing 82% last quarter, and a chance to overtake Azure for second place. Pichai said cloud is forgoing short-term revenue for compute trade-offs to support frontier AI. Kantrowitz argues Google has a play in every part of the AI moment, including the Gemini agent, search, cloud, and Waymo, plus a large Anthropic investment. He says if the compute balancing act is done right, Google is in great shape, while getting it wrong could hurt its competitiveness.

  “if everything goes right for Google, he has basically a play in every bit of this AI moment.”at 31:32

Space Exploration Technologies

Across the shows: 28 speakers in other episodes, 21 bullish and 12 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Oliver Renick · CNBCNeutral

  SpaceX options look cheap: its volatility has halved and it trades largely independently of big tech.

  Renick says SpaceX has held steady near $1.45 for about two months even though the market has been volatile. Its 60-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 is 0.6 and with the S&P 500 is 0.4, so it trades fairly independently of big tech. SpaceX's volatility is now half what it was three months ago while index volatility has risen. He concludes that SpaceX options look very cheap, and big-money traders are selling options in both directions to bet the stock stays stable.

  “SpaceX vol is now half what it was three months ago, while index vol for stocks has gone up. So it's options for SpaceX that arguably look very cheap.”at 41:12

US stock market outlook

• Jeremy Siegel · WisdomTree

  Market is not in trouble; value indexes hit record highs despite the AI trade wobbling.

  Siegel points to the Russell 1000 Value index hitting an all-time high the previous day, and the S&P value index also at a record. He says this makes it hard to argue the market is in trouble. He acknowledges the AI trade, which has been the winning trade, has wobbled and says investors should balance portfolios. His overall read is that the broad market is healthy even as AI leadership weakens.

  “the Russell 1,000 value index... hit an all time high. ... So, you know, it's hard to say the market's in trouble.”at 1:57

• Warren Pies · 3Fourteen Research

  S&P 500 likely higher by year-end, reaching 8,000, after a choppy near-term window.

  Pies expects the S&P 500 to be higher on December 31 and thinks it still has a good chance of hitting 8,000. He expects the next two weeks to be choppy because of a cluster of events (lab fundraising, the Fed meeting, midterms, earnings) that paralyze institutional investors, plus negative year-end seasonality from mutual fund tax-loss selling. He views these near-term factors as temporary and expects most of them to produce positive market reactions, so he sees the current window of weakness as a time to put money to work.

  “I think if you wake you up at the end of the year on December 31, we're gonna be higher. Good chance that we're still gonna hit 8,000 on the S and P 500, but the next ten days, two weeks, likely to be choppy.”at 43:40

• Warren Pies · 3Fourteen Research

  Forward P/E already corrected about 20%; a 25-26% multiple correction is unlikely, so downside is limited.

  Pies argues the market's forward P/E has already fallen about 20%, which he sees as the most encouraging part of the picture. Calling for much more downside would require a 25-26% P/E correction. He notes such corrections have happened only four times in modern history (2000, 2008, 2020 during COVID, and 2022 when the Fed hiked 550 basis points), and he does not think the current environment resembles those episodes.

  “the big positive that sticks out to me is that PE ratio, [forward P/E] ratio is corrected 20% already. If you're calling for a lot more downside from here, you're calling for, like, a 25, 26% PE correction.”at 44:50

US Treasuries & yields

• Jeremy Siegel · WisdomTree

  Ten-year yield now moves with AI sentiment; positive AI spending news pushes long yields higher.

  Siegel says any news or sentiment suggesting AI spending will pay off sends the AI trade up and also pushes yields up. He says he is thoroughly convinced the ten-year is tightly connected to AI sentiment right now. He describes a seesaw: when long rates fall, financing gets cheaper and value stocks benefit, so the flows between AI and value stocks move with the long rate.

  “I'm thoroughly convinced that ten year is really connected to the hip right now to to that AI, to the AI sentiment.”at 3:16

• Cameron Dawson · NewEdge Wealth

  Two-year yield reversing with Fed on hold suggests something has broken, as in 1994 and 2018.

  Dawson looks at history. The two-year yield has overshot the Fed's expected path to the upside only twice, in 1994 and 2018, and both times something broke. If the two-year is now reversing and the Fed is on hold and possibly considering cuts, she says that suggests something has broken. She treats the two-year reversal as a warning about financial stress rather than a simple expectation of easing.

  “the only times that the two year yield has certainly overshot to the upside of what the Fed was actually going to do is when something broke. The two times were 1994 and 2018.”at 18:27

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Jeremy Siegel · WisdomTree

  Fragile AI sentiment flows now overwhelm individual company earnings in driving stock moves.

  Siegel explains that strong earnings from names like Micron, Lam Research and Western Digital are not lifting their stocks. He argues the big-picture question of whether AI spending pays off overwhelms individual earnings. Strong earners may fall less if sentiment turns, but he says sentiment is so fragile and volatile that it dominates the flows into AI names. He says investors are waiting for more information before the sentiment settles.

  “I think that sentiment is... so fragile, so volatile that that is now dominating these... flows towards the AI.”at 8:16

• Abby Yoder · J.P. Morgan Private Bank

  Week's price action reflects oil, Iran headlines and a momentum unwind, not weak earnings.

  Yoder says earnings were fine, but it is hard to separate them from macro factors. Oil surged the same day, and a report said the administration planned to escalate in Iran after the midterms. She says the market is in an environment where good is not enough late in the cycle. She sees a sentiment overhang and a positioning-driven momentum unwind, shown by defensives and consumer cyclicals both outperforming.

  “this is positioning related as it relates to this momentum unwind is, yes, you're having the defensives outperform... consumer cyclicals outperform”at 19:51

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Abby Yoder · J.P. Morgan Private Bank

  Debt-financed hyperscaler capex will be capped more than the cash-funded 2025 spending spree.

  Yoder contrasts 2025 with today. In 2025 hyperscalers funded capex from cash, so they had free rein to spend. Now the spending is debt-financed at higher rates, which constrains how far they can go. She argues there will be a lid on hyperscaler spending that is much tighter than in 2025. She ties this to the market pulling funding from companies with indebted profiles.

  “You don't have just free rein... to say, I'm gonna spend, you know, to the moon because now it's being debt financed, and you got a higher rate. ... There's gonna be a lid on that much more than there was in 2025.”at 22:27

• Warren Pies · 3Fourteen Research

  GPU rental rates keep rising and GPU availability is at new lows, so the AI story is intact.

  Pies says the AI story is not over and that fears about it are easy to fade. His evidence is that GPU rental rates continue to push higher and that GPU availability is at new lows in his 314 index. He takes tight supply and rising rental prices as proof that compute demand is still outpacing supply.

  “I don't think the AI story is over. I think that it's easy to fade those fears. We see GPU rental rates continuing to push higher. Availability, GPU availability is at new lows in our three fourteen index.”at 45:18

US rates & the Fed

• Jeremy Siegel · WisdomTree

  Fed will not move next week; the meeting will be short and uneventful.

  Siegel expects the Fed to hold at next week's meeting. He notes the last meeting was interesting because it went against Trump's recommendation, but he says this one will be boring. He expects a short news conference, possibly around fifteen minutes, and a five-sentence statement. The Summary of Economic Projections does not come until December, so he sees little for the market to react to.

  “I think next week's meeting is gonna be most boring meetings ever... He's not gonna move.”at 10:28

Credit markets

• Cameron Dawson · NewEdge Wealth

  Around 360bp high-yield spreads aren't a crisis signal; if Fed tightens more, volatility rises.

  Dawson says high-yield spreads near 360 basis points are not historically a sign of a crisis, and so not a reason for the Fed to blink. She sees the key question as whether the Fed wants to tighten financial conditions until they are actually tight to bring inflation lower. If it does, she says investors should expect more equity volatility and more credit volatility. She notes the market is only a few percentage points from all-time highs.

  “something like 360 basis points on high yield spreads is not historically a sign of a crisis and a sign for them to blink... buckle up for more equity volatility, buckle up for more credit volatility.”at 17:48

AI: overall outlook

• Abby Yoder · J.P. Morgan Private Bank

  AI cycle is third to fourth inning, not tied to a mid-to-late economic cycle.

  Yoder separates the economic cycle from the AI cycle. The economy looks mid-to-late cycle given the earnings recovery, growth plateauing, and the shocks of recent years. She argues the AI cycle is about third to fourth inning, so the two are not tied at the hip. She is distinguishing where the economy is from where AI adoption and investment sit.

  “I think the AI cycle is, to your point, like, in the fourth inning... whereas the economic cycle, it's hard to...”at 20:26

AI chips & semiconductors

• Cameron Dawson · NewEdge Wealth

  Semis at 17.5x forward earnings imply market sees 2027 as peak earnings; huge buys if wrong.

  Dawson argues the semiconductor price action is breaking down and testing support at the 200-day, yet fundamentals still show growth. She says semis will peak in price before fundamentals peak. Trading at 17.5 times forward earnings suggests the market is pricing a higher probability that 2027 is peak earnings, not just peak earnings growth. If the market is wrong, these are huge buys. She also recalls 2025, when hyperscaler capex forecasts were revised up and lifted semiconductor earnings.

  “They're trading at 17 and a half times forward earnings... That's indicative that the market is starting to price in a higher probability that 2027 is peak earnings.”at 21:01

Sports, betting & prediction markets

• Alex Sherman · CNBC

  Brewers-Rays World Series will likely draw fewer viewers than the Dodgers' 15M-viewer series.

  Sherman notes the last two World Series, won by the Dodgers, each averaged over 15 million viewers. The 2023 Rangers series averaged under 10 million. He expects the Brewers matchup to resemble the Rangers and Astros series more than the Dodgers series. He argues this supports the debate over whether fans want parity or dynasties, which he says is also a basketball question.

  “I would imagine Brewer's [ratings] is probably gonna fall more in line with what we saw with the Rangers or the Astros the year before that”at 36:19

Frontier AI labs & model race

• Warren Pies · 3Fourteen Research

  Combined annualized revenue of the two leading AI labs should reach $170-190B by year-end, up from $30B.

  Pies projects that combined annual revenue run rate for the two labs will reach $170 billion to $190 billion by the end of the year, starting from $30 billion at the beginning of the year. He calls this huge growth and uses it as evidence that the AI investment story is intact. The transcript does not name the two labs.

  “I think lab ARR when we get to the end of the year combined for the two labs is gonna be, you know, one seventy to one ninety starting the year at 30,000,000,000. That's huge growth. I think it's intact.”at 45:31