Speaker · Updated
Michael Batnick: latest market views
Ritholtz Wealth Management
Summary
Michael Batnick is Chief Investment Officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, author of 'Big Mistakes' and co-host of The Compound and Friends podcast.
Chorus has 88 views from Michael Batnick across 14 episodes on The Compound and Friends and Animal Spirits since September 30, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Anthropic, Roundhill Memory ETF, Toll Brothers and Sphere Entertainment Co.; bearish on Netflix, IQVIA Holdings, Meta Platforms and CoreWeave.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- AnthropicBullish ·
- NetflixBearish ·
- Roundhill Memory ETFBullish ·
- Toll BrothersBullish ·
- IQVIA HoldingsBearish ·
- Sphere Entertainment Co.Bullish ·
- Meta PlatformsBearish ·
- CoreWeaveBearish ·
- The Charles SchwabBullish ·
- LennarBearish ·
- KB HomeBearish ·
- NikeBearish ·
- Paramount SkydanceBearish ·
- PulteGroupBearish ·
- The Walt Disney CompanyBullish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Market sentiment, positioning & volatility
Retail dip-buying has been right this cycle and has outperformed institutional portfolios.
Michael challenges the 'dumb money' label for retail investors. He argues retail has been right this cycle by buying dips, and that retail portfolios would have outperformed institutional portfolios. Alex then credits this to retail's greater holding power.
“I feel like they've been pretty damn right the past this this cycle with buying dips. Vast majority of retail would... Our portfolios would have outperformed institutional portfolios.”at 19:35
The Compound and Friends: The Bulls Are Trapped with Alex Altmann ·
Stock correlations have broken down this year, with a negative-beta effect driving narrow index moves.
Michael cites a SocGen chart showing about 40% of possible S&P 500 stock pairs are currently negatively correlated, far above the historical average. He says the index often moves one way while the average stock goes the other, a negative-beta effect. Drivers have rotated through energy, rates-sensitive sectors such as staples, REITs and utilities, Apple, and AI- and software-driven days. He notes that on the day he is discussing, equal-weight rose 98 basis points while the S&P fell 53.
“There are a lot of days where the stock market does X and the average stock goes the other way. So there's this weird negative beta effect.”at 33:14
The Compound and Friends: The Bulls Are Trapped with Alex Altmann ·
Profit margins won't mean-revert because competing now requires huge capital, deterring rivals.
The textbook view is that competition erodes margins. Michael argues that this no longer works because competing with modern monopolies requires raising around a trillion dollars, which most companies cannot do. Only firms like OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX have that access to capital, so the usual economic forces that compress margins do not apply.
“But officially, it's gone because in order to compete effectively with these modern monopolies, you need to raise a trillion dollars. And most companies can't do that.”at 5:05
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
AnthropicBullish
Anthropic's financials look strong: well funded with losses narrowing sharply.
From Anthropic's preliminary S-1, Michael notes it has raised about $141B in aggregate, with $112B in cash and equivalents and $19B in short-term investments, so roughly $130B remains after burn. Its operating loss fell from $2.135B in the six months to 2025 to $693M in the six months to June 2026. He calls these numbers extraordinary and says they undercut the view that the company is burning cash unsustainably.
“The operating loss for the six months ending June 2026, only $693,000,000. That's pretty extraordinary.”at 16:22
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
Bull market likely continues; bearish fear is already priced in, so caution may look wrong later.
Michael says the market is already pricing in a lot of risk: forward multiples have contracted and everyone talks about risk. He leans toward the bull market continuing and finds the bust case less compelling. He cites AI firms with large cash balances and improving losses, and the Polymarket bubble definition, which he thinks requires extreme outcomes. He suggests that in a few years people may ask why they were so bearish.
“Isn't there also another world where three years from now, four years from now, ten years from now, we were like, why were we so bearish?”at 17:19
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Main AI bear risk is access to capital; if the funding spigot shuts off, buildout stalls.
Michael says the bear case is access to capital for AI infrastructure. He points to a neocloud CEO who said last week that the company could not raise more money. Ben adds that AI firms are turning to equity raises to avoid relying on debt markets, and that Nvidia is investing in a Meta equity raise. If that funding dries up, the buildout would be at risk.
“To me is [the] bear case. Like, the access to capital, if that spigot turns off...”at 21:41
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
Roundhill Memory ETFBullish
Would buy the memory chip ETF DRAM after its 40% drawdown.
Ben points out that semiconductor earnings are up 176% year over year while the industry's P/E multiples have collapsed. The DRAM ETF is about 40% below its highs but still up 75% year to date. Michael says that if he had to buy or sell, he would buy. He does not currently own the fund.
“But if I had to buy or sell, yeah, I buy.”at 26:21
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
Upper-end services prices, like limited-capacity experiences, will keep rising sharply.
Michael uses a $600 concert ticket at Barclays as an example. In 2021 companies blamed inflation for price hikes even where it did not affect their costs, and he sees no reason they will stop raising prices at the top end. He expects prices for limited-capacity experiences to rise 8-12% a year for the next ten years. He says the inflation is in services rather than goods, and Ben agrees, citing hotel prices.
“The tickets for experiences where it's a limited number is gonna go up eight to 12% a year for the next ten years.”at 29:27
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
AI labor impact is not yet visible in data, but calling the fears overblown is premature.
Michael agrees that layoffs and claims remain low and AI has not yet shown up in the data. He thinks it is premature to call the fears overblown. He cites a Goldman finding that AI adoption among US firms now shows a statistically significant negative correlation with employment growth, which he reads as a sign the impact is spreading beyond tech.
“all of the AI fears overblown, not happening. I still think that is way premature.”at 30:35
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
US consumer spending stays resilient, led by younger and wealthier households, with credit performance steady.
Batnick uses Bank of America card data to argue spending is holding up. Entertainment card transactions rose 7% year over year and dollar volume rose 13%. Travel transactions rose 4% and dollar volume 7%. Retail transactions rose 6% and dollar volume 5%. He says some of the gap reflects inflation. He thinks much of the strength comes from young people: Gen Z and millennials rose from 20% of American Express spending in 2019 to 38% today. He backs this with Synchrony's CEO saying consumers keep spending through higher gas prices and weak confidence, and with its credit data showing net charge-offs flat to down, which he says is main-street consumer data rather than Amex's premium customer base.
“the transaction number is up 7% year over year, but the dollar volume is up 13%.”at 35:21
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
Toll BrothersBullish
Toll Brothers stock looks far better than Lennar because luxury buyers pay cash and prices are rising.
Batnick and Carlson compare the two builders. Lennar, an entry-level builder, is seeing falling prices. Toll Brothers, a luxury builder with an average home price near $1 million, is seeing rising prices. Cash buying is a big part of Toll's business, with about 25% of buyers paying cash in its last earnings report. Carlson links this to people selling homes outright or drawing on equity and parents' portfolios. Batnick says Toll's stock looks way better than Lennar's as a result.
“Guess what? Toll Brothers, the stock looks way better than Lennar.”at 43:19
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
US housing demand is slumping sharply as rates rise, with first-time buyers pulling back most.
Batnick reads Pulte's earnings commentary. Its CEO described a notable slowdown in home-buying demand in the third quarter as interest rates surged higher. Traffic to its communities fell 14% year over year and 11% sequentially. Batnick says most of the missing traffic came from first-time buyers who lack a down payment from selling a previous home, and calls the situation brutal.
“we experienced a notable slowdown in home buying demand as we moved through the third quarter, and interest rates surged higher. They said traffic to our communities was down 14% from the prior year.”at 44:01
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
NetflixBearish
Netflix's growth is rolling over and it won't grow as it once did, despite strong results.
Batnick says the business looks strong: incremental run-rate revenue of about $12.8B over 24 months, more than the direct-to-consumer revenue of Peacock, HBO Max and Paramount individually, and rising operating income. He still says the stock stinks. It is down about 6% over five years despite a 94% rise in queues (probably meaning subscribers, though the transcript says queues). He argues the company is maturing, with no levers left to restore its past growth, and that YouTube has pulled ahead in TV viewing time, with Netflix now at about half of YouTube's. He acknowledges it is not dead and notes caveats such as slowing growth and YouTube competition.
“It will never grow like it has in the past ever again. There's no more levers to... It's more mature company... So the growth is rolling over.”at 52:57
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
AnthropicBullish
Anthropic's S-1 numbers look strong: small burn, broad customer base, low concentration, so short-term questions are answered.
The S-1 shows about $141B raised in aggregate, $112B in cash and $19B in short-term investments as of June 30, 2026. Operating losses for the six months to June were about $693M, down from $2.79B, which Batnick calls small versus expectations. More than 11,900 customers spent $100K or more, about 1,900 spent $1M or more, and about 250 spent $10M or more. No single customer was over 10% of revenue for the nine months to September, and about 79% of revenue came from outside the top five customers. He says the short-term questions have been answered, while the long-term contract commitments remain open.
“they're burning some money, but it's... I think it's pretty encouraging.”at 6:28
The Compound and Friends: Dirty Dozen Charts, Anthropic’s S-1, Amazon Earnings Preview, Cost of Capital Hits AI ·
AnthropicBullish
A $1.5T Anthropic IPO valuation looks reasonable; $2T would be too high.
Batnick says a $2T valuation would be high, but at $1.5T he feels much better about the deal than he did about SpaceX's IPO. He admits he doesn't know whether $1.5T is too high or too low. He argues the valuation was earned, since revenue growth and spending have been very strong.
“2,000,000,000,000 would be high. At 1.5, I feel a lot better about this than I did about SpaceX.”at 11:47
The Compound and Friends: Dirty Dozen Charts, Anthropic’s S-1, Amazon Earnings Preview, Cost of Capital Hits AI ·
Space Exploration TechnologiesNeutral
SpaceX's IPO was not a great one; the stock fell fast after it priced.
Batnick says SpaceX went from about $150 at pricing to a high near $180 and then fell back to around $100 quickly. The company raised a lot of money. He concedes the stock has since stabilized and it was not a catastrophe, so the worst fears didn't come true. Still, he says it was not a great IPO, and he feels better about the Anthropic IPO valuation than he did about SpaceX.
“It was a bad IPO. ... Yeah. Fine. It wasn't a catastrophe... It was not a great IPO.”at 12:18
The Compound and Friends: Dirty Dozen Charts, Anthropic’s S-1, Amazon Earnings Preview, Cost of Capital Hits AI ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Big AI buildout funding through equity sales, like Meta's $95B raise, is a scary sign for the rest of the group.
Meta plans a roughly $95B equity raise, one of the largest public raises ever. Batnick says Meta thinks equity is cheaper than debt, while neocloud borrowing costs have risen to triple-C levels. Debt markets have largely shut off for companies without substantial non-AI revenue, per the Elon quote Batnick cites. He sees public investors being asked to fund the AI buildout that credit markets are nervous about, with dilution as the cost, and he dislikes that.
“So they think that it's cheaper to sell equity, which is very interesting and kinda scary for what this potentially means for the rest of the group.”at 31:37
The Compound and Friends: Dirty Dozen Charts, Anthropic’s S-1, Amazon Earnings Preview, Cost of Capital Hits AI ·
IQVIA HoldingsBearish
IQVIA's chart shows too many sellers, so the July gap around $213 will likely fill within six months.
Batnick says the chart looks wrong to him because too many sellers keep appearing. He expects the July gap at $213 to get filled over the next six months and says to take that to the bank. Brown disagrees and says the stop is at the gap, so they could be wrong if it fills.
“This will fill the gap, the July gap at two thirteen over the next six months. Take it to the bank.”at 49:59
The Compound and Friends: Dirty Dozen Charts, Anthropic’s S-1, Amazon Earnings Preview, Cost of Capital Hits AI ·
Sphere Entertainment Co.Bullish
Sphere is a bullish trade: it erased its gap and held $100, so the risk is easy to manage.
Batnick makes a technical case: Sphere filled its gap, and the stock has defended $100, so the stop is easy to set around $15 lower if it rolls over. He admits the numbers look bad, with the company losing money and growth slowing in the Wizard of Oz show, which is why the stock fell from $1.75 to $100. He still expects revenue of around $400M from the Wizard of Oz show and says a new Rocky Horror Picture Show release is coming next year. He treats this as a story stock and says a rational bet with a clear exit is fine.
“The gap has been erased, defended it at a $100.”at 52:24
The Compound and Friends: Dirty Dozen Charts, Anthropic’s S-1, Amazon Earnings Preview, Cost of Capital Hits AI ·
Consumer credit is healthy: Bank of America consumer net charge-offs are falling, and jobless claims are near multi-decade lows.
Despite widespread anxiety about affordability, Michael points to hard data as evidence the consumer is fine. Bank of America's consumer net charge-offs, a read on Main Street borrowers, are declining each quarter. Initial jobless claims of 194,000 are the fourth-lowest level going back to the 1960s. He argues that the gap between sentiment and this data reflects media negativity rather than actual consumer stress.
“We have consumer net charge offs, and it's going down... This is Bank of America, and take that literally. Consumer charge offs are going down. We also have today... initial jobless claims down to 194,000, which is the fourth lowest level going back to the 1960s.”at 23:33
The Compound and Friends: An Economy So Good No One Can Live In It with Jill Schlesinger ·
Companies are raising prices at the top end because wealthy buyers seem to pay anything.
Batnick says inflation has hit the bottom half of the K, such as an $8 bottle of water. Companies have now realised there is no limit to what wealthy people will pay for exclusive experiences. He cites United and Delta raising miles prices and Disney raising prices at the top of its range. He treats this as a deliberate shift toward premium pricing.
“But United and Delta are jacking up the miles. Yep. Disney is raising prices at the top of the k because why wouldn't they? There is no limit”at 37:41
The Compound and Friends: An Economy So Good No One Can Live In It with Jill Schlesinger ·
Meta PlatformsBearish
Meta is spending its once-huge profits on AI, with negative free cash flow and still not enough.
Batnick says Meta was one of the most profitable businesses in history and is now spending all of its cash. The quarter showed its first negative free cash flow since 2012. He says that is not enough for Meta, and it needs more. The stock fell about 14% after the report, reversing an early gain.
“This was one of the three most profitable businesses in the history of capitalism. Now they are spending it all.”at 1:06:26
The Compound and Friends: An Economy So Good No One Can Live In It with Jill Schlesinger ·
Inflation is persistent and not just a fuel-price story, the market is finally pricing it.
A hot CPI report last Tuesday triggered a big selloff. He says yields fell as investors concluded that inflation is getting serious, is not going away and is not just fuel prices. He also suggests that the business cycle may be nearing its end.
“This is actually getting kinda serious. The inflation is not going away. It's not just fuel prices.”at 5:01
CoreWeaveBearish
CoreWeave's debt-funded chip buildout is a credible AI canary; company size is irrelevant.
CoreWeave is a neocloud that fills data centers with Nvidia chips and leases them to hyperscalers. It is financing chip purchases worth tens of billions of dollars with a mix of public, private, secured and unsecured debt. Borrowing costs are rising sharply and its bond prices are falling, so he thinks it can be the canary in the coal mine for AI. He says the company's size does not matter, though he admits he does not know whether it will be the end of the story.
“...is that there is a lot of borrowing going on to finance the purchases of these chips that are in the tens of billions of dollars... And the rates are going vertical, and the bond prices are crashing.”at 8:55
Market sentiment, positioning & volatility
Investors are buying sharp selloffs at record pace, which reflects aggressive retail risk-taking.
Sherwood's chart shows five-day net purchases as a share of the maximum, and investors have never bought this many shares over a five-day period as they did last week. He ties this to the CoreWeave selloff and to Dick's, where stocks falling 20% in a day or 40% in five days attract immediate buyers. He treats this reflexive dip-buying as a sign of speculative appetite.
“Sherwood has this chart that shows the five day net purchases as a percentage of the max, meaning, like, investors have never bought this much shares over a five day period as they did last week.”at 12:51
The Charles SchwabBullish
Schwab's record client inflows show retail investors are hard to scare off.
Schwab attracted $190 billion in net new assets last week, up 38% from a year earlier, and clients move about $4 trillion in cash each month. About 70% of new-to-firm retail households are Gen Z or millennials. He concludes it will take a lot to scare these investors away from the market.
“Schwab reported last week. They attracted a $190,000,000,000 in net new assets, up 38% over last year.”at 15:51
AI-driven borrowing, not fiscal deficits, drove last week's surge in interest rates.
He argues that the blow-off top in rates was driven by the AI trade and the large amounts of money AI companies are borrowing, which crowds out other debt, not by fiscal irresponsibility. He hedges ('maybe that is what I'm saying') and adds that he expects the borrowing wave to end, the economy to weaken and money to come down.
“last week, we found out that all of the blow off top in interest rates, how much of it is fiscal irresponsibility, how much of it is the government versus AI, It was all AI.”at 17:54
Market breadth is poor: many stocks are in deep drawdowns, not just the index.
Last week the 25 best-performing stocks of the first half of the year fell 19% on average. He says many consumer staples and discretionary stocks are in smithereens, so the weakness is not confined to the handful of big winners. He disputes the median-stock argument by pointing to how many individual stocks sit in 20% drawdowns.
“Okay. Fine. But if we showed consumer staple stocks or retail... Or discretionary stocks, it's not just these. There are a lot of stocks that are in smithereens, factually speaking.”at 23:25
US inflation is a problem beyond the war, citing a persistent run of readings above 2%.
Michael counters Ben's war-driven explanation by pointing to 66 consecutive months of CPI above 2%. He argues inflation is a problem for reasons beyond the war. He also dismisses his own $40-a-pound skirt steak as a likely data-entry error, but says beef prices are rising like everything else.
“Inflation's a problem. It's not just because of the war.”at 36:04
AI infrastructure & data centers
If the data center buildout fails, it could be the biggest misallocation of capital ever.
Michael frames the risk conditionally: if the companies are wrong about returns, the sheer scale of simultaneous data center spending could be the largest misallocation of capital in history. Ben agrees, noting that every major company is spending together. A land surveyor's email, which says the builders cannot see any ROI, prompted the discussion.
“If they're wrong, this could go down as the biggest misallocation of capital.”at 44:07
58 older views from Michael Batnick are on the episode pages, and all of them are a question away in your AI with Chorus.
Shows
- The Compound and Friends · 8 episodes
- Animal Spirits · 6 episodes
Ask your AI what Michael Batnick thinks
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