Dirty Dozen Charts, Anthropic’s S-1, Amazon Earnings Preview, Cost of Capital Hits AI

Anthropic

Across the shows: 65 speakers in other episodes, 52 bullish and 51 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Anthropic's S-1 numbers look strong: small burn, broad customer base, low concentration, so short-term questions are answered.

  The S-1 shows about $141B raised in aggregate, $112B in cash and $19B in short-term investments as of June 30, 2026. Operating losses for the six months to June were about $693M, down from $2.79B, which Batnick calls small versus expectations. More than 11,900 customers spent $100K or more, about 1,900 spent $1M or more, and about 250 spent $10M or more. No single customer was over 10% of revenue for the nine months to September, and about 79% of revenue came from outside the top five customers. He says the short-term questions have been answered, while the long-term contract commitments remain open.

  “they're burning some money, but it's... I think it's pretty encouraging.”at 6:28

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Anthropic's first-half operating loss came in far better than expected, and enterprise AI spend is still a small share.

  Brown argues the headline $80B loss is an accounting treatment of committed spending, not cash that has to be handed over. The real measure is operating loss, which was under $1B for the first half of 2026. He says nobody expected that. He also cites the Gavin Baker figure that Fortune 500 customers paying about $100K a year average under 0.1% of their total expenses, and calls that a drop in the bucket, which is bullish because the penetration runway is long.

  “The real number is the operating loss. And as you pointed out, it was under 1,000,000,000 for the first half of the year. I don't think anybody expected that.”at 10:01

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Anthropic's IPO will be upsized to about $120B and be heavily oversubscribed, with a strong debut.

  Anthropic already raised about $140B privately, so a $100B public raise looks like a layup. Brown expects it to be upsized before November 16 unless the Nasdaq has a rough stretch, and he expects about five times oversubscription. He is comparing a $1.5T to $2T valuation range. At $1.5T the stock comes out strongly higher, and at $2T the price acts as a seatbelt on enthusiasm, though he still expects the deal to go well.

  “I think that gets upsized between now and November 16, if I had to guess. Unless the Nasdaq has a really rough stretch, I bet you that 100 goes to one twenty.”at 10:55

• Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  A $1.5T Anthropic IPO valuation looks reasonable; $2T would be too high.

  Batnick says a $2T valuation would be high, but at $1.5T he feels much better about the deal than he did about SpaceX's IPO. He admits he doesn't know whether $1.5T is too high or too low. He argues the valuation was earned, since revenue growth and spending have been very strong.

  “2,000,000,000,000 would be high. At 1.5, I feel a lot better about this than I did about SpaceX.”at 11:47

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Anthropic's revenue growth will decelerate from its 1,300% pace to around 50% a year.

  Anthropic reported first-half revenue growth of about 1,300%, going from about $1B to about $16B year on year. Brown says that rate cannot persist, so growth will come down. He expects the growth rate to settle at around 50% a year, which he treats as a strong grower and the basis for how people will set the valuation multiple.

  “They are not gonna do that again. So it's not gonna be 1600%, 3100% growth year after year after year. It's it's coming down.”at 13:33

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Anthropic's market cap could reach about $8 trillion in five years.

  Brown argues the bear case has never been that Anthropic can't grow sales. The real debates are whether its models have a moat that survives price cuts and whether falling token costs can be offset by usage growth. He says that if the company keeps executing, its market cap could be about $8T five years out.

  “Five years later, it's whatever. The market cap is 8,000,000,000,000.”at 14:43

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementUncertain

  Anthropic and OpenAI renting rather than owning compute may matter as the market separates AI players.

  Brown notes Anthropic says building its own compute will be extremely costly. Only Alphabet (Gemini) and Meta, which now has its Muse agentic platform, both serve consumers and own their compute end to end. Anthropic and OpenAI rent compute under leases and locked-up agreements. He thinks the market may start to distinguish players with their own compute, perhaps next year. He also floats the idea that Anthropic could benefit from the neocloud financing stress and buy CoreWeave.

  “At some point in the future, that might become important... the market starts to distinguish these AI players have their own compute and these don't. And that might matter.”at 16:57

Robinhood Markets

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBearish

  Robinhood's diversification story is overstated; crypto is the revenue that matters, and it is falling.

  Brown says Robinhood's many new business lines are overstated. The one market that really matters is crypto, and crypto revenue is down about 50% in a year. He says prediction markets are not a real business, and the company is not meaningful in wealth management. Stock trading is free, and payment for order flow is a fractions-of-a-penny business. Options are large, but crypto is the core. He concludes the revenue base is weaker than the narrative.

  “They're not in wealth management in any substantial way that adds up to any money.”at 23:38

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementUncertain

  Robinhood's business is in great shape because customers rarely move accounts, but the stock looks ugly.

  Brown says he wants to turn bullish on Robinhood because he thinks it has a bright future and its business is in great shape. Customers aren't going to leave, and people rarely move brokerage accounts, so Robinhood's traders stay on the platform. He still won't buy the stock because the chart looks ugly and he doesn't know what's ailing it. He also says Robinhood is too dependent on crypto, which makes the story harder for him to like.

  “I don't really know what's ailing this name, but I wanna flip bullish on it because I do think they have a bright future.”at 57:23

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 51 speakers in other episodes, 45 bullish and 25 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBearish

  Meta's new $60B share-sale program creates an overhang that will cap the stock into year end.

  Meta raised $12.5B through a 6.5% convertible preferred that converts into common by 2029, then set up an at-the-market program of up to $60B and created a new Class C share. Brown says ATM programs become an overhang because the company can drop shares whenever the stock rallies, undercutting upside. The company has gone from heavy buybacks to selling stock, which changes the narrative. Brown says a stock investor trying to beat a benchmark should avoid adding exposure until the supply overhang is over. He adds that Zuckerberg doesn't care about this near-term dynamic.

  “If you're gonna own a mag seven name from here into year end, you don't wanna own the one that's got $60,000,000,000 of supply just waiting for any kind of upward move in the common.”at 37:54

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementNeutral

  Meta is issuing stock and buying back less to fund AI compute because it wants to own compute rather than rent it.

  Brown explains the rationale behind Meta's capital allocation shift toward equity issuance. He argues Meta sees itself in an existential race and is not focused on reaching AGI. The core logic is that companies either own the compute or are forced to pay for it, and Meta doesn't want to be forced to pay. He says he isn't claiming this will be the right bet, only describing what the bet is.

  “It's just about you either own the compute or you're forced to pay for it. And they don't wanna be forced to pay for it. They wanna own it.”at 39:59

IQVIA Holdings

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  IQVIA is an underappreciated CRO whose proprietary pharma data library is among the most important in the world.

  Brown says IQVIA is a contract research organization that helps pharma companies develop drugs with data, and that it may have the most important proprietary pharma data library on the planet. He says the stock has strong technicals, and his team wrote it up last week. He presents it as a stock almost no one has heard of that could have a durable business behind its chart.

  “They help pharmaceutical companies develop drugs with data. They might have the most important proprietary pharma data library on the planet.”at 49:45

• Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBearish

  IQVIA's chart shows too many sellers, so the July gap around $213 will likely fill within six months.

  Batnick says the chart looks wrong to him because too many sellers keep appearing. He expects the July gap at $213 to get filled over the next six months and says to take that to the bank. Brown disagrees and says the stop is at the gap, so they could be wrong if it fills.

  “This will fill the gap, the July gap at two thirteen over the next six months. Take it to the bank.”at 49:59

Sphere Entertainment Co.

• Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Sphere is a bullish trade: it erased its gap and held $100, so the risk is easy to manage.

  Batnick makes a technical case: Sphere filled its gap, and the stock has defended $100, so the stop is easy to set around $15 lower if it rolls over. He admits the numbers look bad, with the company losing money and growth slowing in the Wizard of Oz show, which is why the stock fell from $1.75 to $100. He still expects revenue of around $400M from the Wizard of Oz show and says a new Rocky Horror Picture Show release is coming next year. He treats this as a story stock and says a rational bet with a clear exit is fine.

  “The gap has been erased, defended it at a $100.”at 52:24

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementUncertain

  Sphere's chart setup is good, but the financing for its planned new venues is an overhang on the stock.

  Brown likes the chart, saying buyers stepped in at $100 and that is the way to trade. He sees a financing risk. Sphere is planning another venue in Maryland with a cost of roughly $2B, and it is also building one in Abu Dhabi. The company doesn't have a clear plan to fund the Maryland build, so it will need to raise money or sell more stock. He says that uncertainty is an overhang, and that heavy short interest reflects it.

  “The project cost is a big open question. They're going to have to fund it somehow or they're going to sell more stock to fund it... So that's an overhang on the stock.”at 54:10

Space Exploration Technologies

Across the shows: 35 speakers in other episodes, 28 bullish and 16 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementNeutral

  SpaceX's IPO was not a great one; the stock fell fast after it priced.

  Batnick says SpaceX went from about $150 at pricing to a high near $180 and then fell back to around $100 quickly. The company raised a lot of money. He concedes the stock has since stabilized and it was not a catastrophe, so the worst fears didn't come true. Still, he says it was not a great IPO, and he feels better about the Anthropic IPO valuation than he did about SpaceX.

  “It was a bad IPO. ... Yeah. Fine. It wasn't a catastrophe... It was not a great IPO.”at 12:18

Amazon.com

Across the shows: 20 speakers in other episodes, 15 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Amazon is undervalued versus hyperscaler peers; growth outpacing capex could take the stock to $275.

  Brown owns Amazon personally. Its EPS has risen steadily while the stock has barely moved over three years. Amazon trades at 16.6x trailing cash flow, below Microsoft at 20.9x and Alphabet at 21.6x. He calls the physical-business discount a bullshit discount. AWS revenue grew 36.7% and backlog rose from $200B to $496B. He argues Amazon's own chips and cheap borrowing make its capex a moat, which looks more attractive as neocloud credit tightens, with CoreWeave bonds at 15-16%. The market has punished capex that runs ahead of growth, and it rewarded July's 37% AWS growth despite a higher capex plan. If Thursday's report shows growth outrunning spend and capex guidance stays contained, the stock could reach $275.

  “If Jassy delivers, keeps a lid on upward guidance to CapEx spend the way that Meta did and can demonstrate that AWS revenue is outpacing the spend, this could be a $275 stock.”at 30:18

Phillips 66

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementUncertain

  Phillips 66 has a strong chart, but its refining crack spread is rolling over, which hits the stock.

  Refiners got slammed on the day, and Brown says these stocks react to the crack spread, which is the gap between raw oil prices and what refiners sell gasoline and distillates for. He says the crack spread has been rolling over, which is why the stocks are being hit. Despite that, he shows Phillips 66's chart as a textbook uptrend with higher lows and higher highs and strong trend velocity. He notes the sell-off could invalidate the chart, which is why stop losses are built into his write-ups.

  “These stocks react to something called the crack spread, which is the difference between the raw oil price versus what they can sell it at... And the crack spread has been rolling over.”at 44:18

Valero Energy

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementUncertain

  Valero has a strong chart, but a refining sell-off tied to the crack spread could break the trend.

  Brown shows Valero on the same chart as Phillips 66 and calls the refiners among the best energy stocks of 2026. Refiners are under pressure because the crack spread is rolling over. He says the sell-off today may end up invalidating the chart, which is why he builds stop losses into his write-ups.

  “Now the sell off today may ultimately end up invalidating it, which is why we have stop losses built into these when we write them up for CNBC Pro.”at 44:51

Marathon Petroleum

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementUncertain

  Marathon Petroleum has a strong chart, but it is exposed to the same refining-margin pressure.

  Brown lists Marathon as the third refiner in his segment, with the same chart pattern as Phillips 66 and Valero. Refiners were hit by the crack spread rolling over. He cites Marathon, along with the other two refiners, as one of the top three performing energy stocks of 2026, and as one of the best stocks in the S&P 500. The chart is strong, but the margin backdrop is the risk.

  “Now the sell off today may ultimately end up invalidating it, which is why we have stop losses built into these when we write them up for CNBC Pro.”at 44:51

Fortinet

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Fortinet has held support through three false breakdowns below its rising 50-day, so the trend looks durable.

  Brown points to three false breakdowns below the rising 50-day moving average that each recovered, and he says every trader who got shaken out has looked foolish. He sees support in the stock and says he can't help but like what he sees. He puts the risk at around $150, a level he sees as meaningful, against a stock price of $183. The trade rests on the technical structure, with the 50-day line as the key level.

  “This is three false breakdowns below the rising 50 day, which is the yellow line. Count up. Four... I see that support in the name and I can't help but like what I'm seeing.”at 47:05

Expeditors International of Washington

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Expeditors is the right stock now because customs confusion and tariffs drive its business.

  Brown says Expeditors has a tenacious trend and buyers step in each time the stock nears its 50-day moving average, which he reads as accumulation. He ties the business to the current environment: Expeditors does well when there is a lot of customs confusion and tariffs. He calls it the right stock for this moment, making a trade on the mechanism of trade disruption plus the chart.

  “Expeditors International does really well when there's a lot of customs related confusion and tariffs... This is the right stock for this moment.”at 48:16

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  AI-trade stocks down about 20% from summer highs may be an opportunity to buy again.

  The AI leaders basket was up nearly 100% by the end of June, then gave all of it back. Semis, neoclouds and power infrastructure fell in the second half. Brown says many AI-trade stocks now sell about 20% below their July and August valuations. With the Fed meeting, Anthropic's IPO and midterms out of the way and investors holding cash, he sees room for enthusiasm to return and the sell-off to become an opportunity.

  “a lot of stocks involved in the AI trade selling at a 20% discount to the valuations they were at this July and August”at 19:34

US stock market outlook

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  Falling interest rates drove the broad stock rebound; further rate relief could keep it going.

  Two weeks earlier the 10-year was near 5% and was seen heading toward 6%. Over the last week rates fell and every stock came back. The median stock rebounded, and the share of stocks hitting new 20-day highs reached a high for the year. Brown argues the basket names that had been pushed down lost their reason to be sold once rates eased. If rates come further off the boil, he expects the broad rally to continue.

  “Over the last week, you've had interest rates fall off, and every stock came back.”at 21:28

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  Big AI buildout funding through equity sales, like Meta's $95B raise, is a scary sign for the rest of the group.

  Meta plans a roughly $95B equity raise, one of the largest public raises ever. Batnick says Meta thinks equity is cheaper than debt, while neocloud borrowing costs have risen to triple-C levels. Debt markets have largely shut off for companies without substantial non-AI revenue, per the Elon quote Batnick cites. He sees public investors being asked to fund the AI buildout that credit markets are nervous about, with dilution as the cost, and he dislikes that.

  “So they think that it's cheaper to sell equity, which is very interesting and kinda scary for what this potentially means for the rest of the group.”at 31:37