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Priya Misra: latest market views
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Summary
Priya Misra is a managing director and portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management who co-manages the JPMorgan Core Plus Bond ETF (JCPB), and previously headed global rates research at TD Securities and US rates research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Chorus has 5 views from Priya Misra across 2 episodes on Bloomberg Talks and Bloomberg Surveillance since October 28, 2026.
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The Fed's policy was sound; the communication failed to explain the hawkish hold.
Misra separates policy from communication. The market reaction showed no sign the Fed is behind the curve on inflation, and the Fed has already hiked and is likely to hike more. She says the market was comfortable with the policy, but the chair did not explain the decision, did not discuss the data or inflation breadth, and left open whether the Fed is removing risk-management cuts, adding hikes, or recalibrating the neutral rate. She reads the Fed's stance as risk management against a supply shock spreading into the economy, and says the market is still pricing three hikes.
“There's a policy and then there's the communication. The policy you saw the market reaction right after. I don't think the market was saying that the Fed's behind the curve on inflation. They've hiked. They're likely to hike some more. I think the market was okay with policy.”at 8:41
Bloomberg Talks: Instant Reaction: Fed Stands Pat; Lisa Cook & Beth Hammack Dissent ·
An AI trade sell-off would tighten financial conditions, so markets would do the Fed's work.
Misra argues the Fed is watching financial conditions because the AI trade matters to them. If the AI trade deflates, interest rates might fall, but financial conditions could still tighten. That would let the market tighten policy on the Fed's behalf, which would reduce the Fed's urgency to act. She reads the chair as explicit that the AI trade is interest-rate sensitive, pushing back on the idea that it is not.
“It's not just the labor market and inflation, it's going to be financial conditions. If the air is coming out of the AI trade, interest rates might come down but financial conditions might tighten and then the markets doing the work for the Fed.”at 11:00
Bloomberg Talks: Instant Reaction: Fed Stands Pat; Lisa Cook & Beth Hammack Dissent ·
Fed has already hiked and will likely hike more; markets are comfortable, not seeing it as behind the curve.
Misra separates the policy decision from its communication. The market reaction after the decision did not suggest the Fed is behind the curve on inflation. The Fed has hiked and is likely to hike again, so she reads the market as comfortable with the policy itself. The communication was a hard-to-deliver hawkish hold that left the decision unexplained. She adds that markets still price three more hikes, more than the most hawkish Fed official has signalled, which she treats as a sign that the policy path is not yet settled.
“I don't think the market was saying that the Fed's behind the curve on inflation. They've hiked. They're likely to hike some more. I think the market was okay with policy.”at 8:27
Bloomberg Surveillance: Instant Reaction: Fed Stands Pat; Lisa Cook & Beth Hammack Dissent ·
If AI trade deflates, financial conditions tighten and the market, not the Fed, does the work.
Misra argues monetary policy works through financial conditions. The chair said financial conditions had tightened and that this was roughly what the Fed expected, which she reads as pushback against the idea that the AI trade is not rate-sensitive. Her mechanism: if air comes out of the AI trade, rates might fall but financial conditions would still tighten, so markets would do the Fed's tightening work. That makes the AI trade a live input into how much the Fed needs to move, and she thinks this is part of why the Fed is buying time.
“If the air is coming out of the AI trade, interest rates might come down but financial conditions might tighten and then the market's doing the work for the Fed.”at 10:51
Bloomberg Surveillance: Instant Reaction: Fed Stands Pat; Lisa Cook & Beth Hammack Dissent ·
Inflation is still a supply shock; conventional theory says look through it, but Fed is in risk management.
Misra's view is that the current inflation impulse is still a supply shock. Under conventional economic theory, a central bank would look through a supply shock. She reads the Fed's stance as risk management: it fears the shock will spread into broader prices. She also says the Fed was divided, with questions about whether it should have hiked in September, and she is not sure which way the committee will go. This makes the supply-versus-demand question the key to whether the Fed looks through or responds.
“But I'll go back to we think this is still a supply shock. There were questions on whether they should have hiked in September. If this is a supply shock, normal conventional economic theory would say look through it. I think this was risk management.”at 15:53
Bloomberg Surveillance: Instant Reaction: Fed Stands Pat; Lisa Cook & Beth Hammack Dissent ·
Shows
- Bloomberg Talks · 1 episode
- Bloomberg Surveillance · 1 episode
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