The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 21 speakers in other episodes, 16 bullish and 9 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jan van Eck · VanEckBullish

  Nvidia's valuation has fallen sharply and it is now much more attractive.

  Semiconductors are up about 50% year to date, and Nvidia is up about 16% year to date, lagging the sector but not breaking its uptrend. Its valuation has come down dramatically, making the stock much more attractive. Van Eck has argued this before. The price action is evidence of the valuation reset, not of a broken trend.

  “NVIDIA is up about 16% year to date, and its valuation has come down dramatically... it's become a lot more attractive.”at 15:39

• Jan van Eck · VanEckBullish

  Nvidia is the core of AI hardware with a durable moat and strong cash returns, unlike past cycles.

  Jan calls Nvidia the heart of the AI hardware ecosystem and says it is not the prior-cycle chipmaker that sold mainly into gaming or bitcoin mining. He says it was perfectly placed when the AI wave arrived and now functions like the IBM of that system, with software and other moats protecting it. He cites cash generation, dividends and buybacks, and extended guidance a year out as the right signals. He contrasts it with memory chip makers, which he treats as far less mature.

  “I consider to be the heart of the AI kind of hardware ecosystem.”at 40:57

Vistra

• Jan van Eck · VanEckBullish

  Vistra's long-term contracts make it well positioned, and its share price now looks attractively valued.

  Vistra is an independent power producer with long-term contracts that put it in a strong position to supply energy, which people need, whatever happens with data center concerns. Power-related trades corrected this year, partly because they were overvalued. Vistra's prices have come down to more attractive valuations.

  “Here's a second company, Vistra, which is an independent power producer... they have the contract, long term contracts are in a really good position of having energy, which is what people need... the prices have just come down to more attractive valuations.”at 16:42

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 27 speakers in other episodes, 6 bullish and 20 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jan van Eck · VanEckBearish

  CoreWeave's slide reflects the bond squeeze and the weaker financials of neocloud compute providers.

  CoreWeave was the poster child of the prior week's selloff. Van Eck describes it as a compute provider with less robust financials, and sees the drop as a possible reflection of the Q3 bond squeeze and higher interest rates. Van Eck also notes that CoreWeave and Oracle fell about 50% in late 2025 and that this kind of price discipline has happened before. The bearish read is tentative.

  “the poster child of last week, which is CoreWeave... compute providers with less robust financials.”at 17:11

Anthropic

Across the shows: 30 speakers in other episodes, 19 bullish and 39 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jan van Eck · VanEckBullish

  Anthropic's positioning on corporate desktops as the AI interface is very valuable.

  Corporate desktops are valuable real estate, so getting the AI interface there is worth fighting for. Van Eck would rather use Claude as the interface for its Microsoft suite, asking questions about calendars or email. Claude is connected to Van Eck's databases. Replacing it is possible but takes time, and people don't want to spend that time learning equivalent software. This is a personal observation from using the product, not a financial projection.

  “if a software company like Anthropic can get that positioning on our corporate desktops, that's really valuable.”at 27:04

Blue Owl Capital

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 0 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jan van Eck · VanEckUncertain

  Blue Owl gave back its Q2 rally as rising yields squeezed it; dividend still healthy, so holding.

  Jan bought private credit manager equities in Q2 and Blue Owl rose about 30%, from roughly $9 to over $12. He says bond yields squeezed it and it gave back all of that gain. He did not anticipate the rise in the 10-year, and Blue Owl saw more redemption requests on one of its biggest funds. He is not selling his personal position and says the equity still pays a healthy dividend, so holders get paid to wait.

  “But again, squeezed by bonds, I would argue. They gave back all of that value.”at 45:22

Bitcoin

Across the shows: 8 speakers in other episodes, 4 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jan van Eck · VanEckBullish

  Bitcoin is very bullish long term, and VanEck's bearish calls don't mean it lacks upside.

  Jan says Bitcoin was in VanEck's last quarter outlook. He says Bitcoin was called correctly, and that VanEck will say so when it is bearish on an asset, as it was on Bitcoin. He then says he is long term and very, very bullish on Bitcoin. He gives no detailed evidence for that view in this section.

  “you know, long term and very very bullish.”at 1:18:14

US Treasuries & yields

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  Higher 10-year yields now compete with equities, squeezing the rest of client portfolios toward bonds.

  The main Q3 development was the rise in interest rates, especially the 10-year. That makes yields relatively attractive: high-yield munis are in the high single digits, against annualized equity returns of about 8% a year. As a result, investors are shifting part of their portfolios toward fixed income. Van Eck's funds reflect this, with four of the five top inflow funds over the last month being fixed income funds.

  “that, to me, is squeezing the rest of client portfolios because now yields are getting to be relatively attractive, especially... high yield munis and things like that are in the high single digits. That's competing with annualized equity returns of 8% a year.”at 2:13

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  Van Eck is structurally underweight bonds on deficits but has bought bonds as yields look attractive short term.

  Van Eck is structurally underweight bonds and fixed income because of its deficit concerns. Bonds look more attractive in the shorter term, so Van Eck's models began buying bonds last week. The short-term case rests on the higher yields described earlier, while the long-term underweight rests on US fiscal deficits.

  “We are structurally underweight bonds and fixed income because of our deficit concerns. But they're more attractive here in the shorter term.”at 6:13

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  The 10-year yield rise reflects strong nominal growth, not inflation or credit fears.

  Jan argues the rise in yields comes from economic growth, not inflation or credit concerns. Nominal growth, shown on his chart, has risen alongside the 10-year, and strong growth raises credit demand and rates. Real yields are driven by a booming economy, not inflation. He says the oil-yield link was a temporary correlation, since bonds did not sell off in the early months of the Iran war. He also says bond volatility has not been extreme, and that media coverage overstated the move.

  “And it's a very simple concept, which is if economic growth is strong, then there's going to be more demand for credit and that would bring interest rates higher.”at 51:25

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  Foreign buyers shifting to home bonds reflects better local yields, not lost faith in US Treasuries.

  Jan explains that Japanese buyers once bought US-hedged bonds for a higher yield. With higher global rates, they now prefer Japanese bonds over hedged US dollar bonds, so US bonds compete in a global market. Adam frames it as buyers taking a better home deal, and Jan agrees, calling it grocery economics rather than judgment. He also notes China has let its Treasuries mature, to about half its 2013 peak.

  “now with higher interest rates globally, this Japanese buyer would rather just buy Japanese bonds ... than hedged US dollar bonds.”at 58:10

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  Q3 bond selloff was growth-driven, not the start of a crisis, so VanEck trimmed its fixed-income underweight.

  VanEck is underweight fixed income for the bearish reasons Adam already knows about. Jan does not think the Q3 move was the beginning of a big crisis. He says it was mainly driven by economic growth, and that growth is pressuring other parts of the portfolio while making bonds offer more value. So they have reduced the underweight a little.

  “we don't think this was the beginning of a big crisis. What we saw in Q3, it was more due to economic growth,”at 1:18:53

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  Bond yields near 5.5-6% draw buyers, so a near-term rally is worth renting via short duration.

  Jan agrees with Adam and David Hay that bond prices may get a near-term relief rally after moving so far so fast, but only as a rental rather than a structural call. His model group finds duration very hard to time, so they are cautious about big moves. He argues there is not much technical support at 5.25%, 5.5% and 6%: fixed income investors start buying around 5.5%, and riskier investors want 6% or more. A two-year duration is attractive because it carries little duration risk while paying about 5%. That is why he and Christian are renting the rally.

  “The second thing is there just is not a lot of technical support at 5.25%, 5.5%, 6%. So I started polling people, unsurprisingly, fixed income investors started being interested at 5.5%”at 1:20:45

Venture capital & startups

• Christian Munafo · VanEck

  Private AI valuations are skyrocketing, but many are priced to perfection and warrant caution.

  Valuations of inference clouds in the private market are skyrocketing, and private market moves can be a tell, though sometimes they blow up and don't become durable trends. One AI company was valued at close to $25 billion before releasing its model. Many assets are priced to perfection, which gives the team indigestion, so they remain very cautious even though the AI trade is booming.

  “in the private market, what we're seeing is the valuations of these inference clouds just skyrocketing.”at 20:25

• Christian Munafo · VanEck

  About 90% of venture returns came from 5% of managers, so value is concentrating.

  Roughly 90% of venture returns over the past few decades were generated by 5% of managers. Of about 3,000 VC managers active over the past couple of decades, less than 1% consistently put up more than 3x returns. Christian reads this as increasing value concentration at both the asset and manager levels. This makes it hard for first-time fund managers to raise capital, since investors favor incumbents.

  “roughly 90% of venture returns over the past few decades has been generated by 5% of the managers.”at 35:24

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  Private-market AI trade is less disciplined than public markets, with both feet on the gas.

  Jan says he has no hard metric but believes there is more discipline in public markets than in private markets, where the AI trade has both feet on the gas. He says he dislikes using the word bubble, that this could change, and that there is less discipline in private markets, which will keep changing. The evidence is his judgment rather than data.

  “there's more discipline in the public markets, I think, in a way than in the private markets right now.”at 39:38

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  Skeptics of tech are wrong; stepping out of tech has been very expensive over one and two years.

  The S&P 500 is far more tech-dominated than it used to be, and Van Eck is overweight tech relative to it. Investors who listen to the naysayers on Nvidia and tech, or who step out of the tech megatrend, leave a lot of money on the table. That has been very expensive year to date and over the one- and two-year periods since ChatGPT launched.

  “The normal equity benchmark, S and P 500, is very much more tech dominant than it used to be. We at VanEck are actually overweight tech above that... you are leaving a lot of money on the table.”at 7:33

• Christian Munafo · VanEck

  Most AI revenue comes from large established firms, not thinly capitalized startups; earnings concern overstated.

  Christian pushes back on the idea that AI earnings are paper profits. He argues that if revenue came from thinly capitalized or debt-laden startups, concern would be warranted, but most AI revenue and earnings come from very large, well-capitalized businesses. He adds that this does not remove risk, but it makes the situation different from a bell-ringing bubble.

  “...the majority of the earnings... I would just push back a little bit, they're not startups... a lot of these revenue and earnings generation is coming from very large established well heeled businesses. Doesn't mean there's not risk.”at 40:07

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  AI compute demand can be modeled from token usage, growing about 25% a year after year one.

  Van Eck's own token usage curve shows individual users' token use rising about eightfold from their first two months to twelve months later, then about 25% a year. Angus Schillington applied that curve to the rest of the market, and the result closely matched the industry's projected demand. Van Eck models training held flat as a conservative assumption, so demand upside is possible. The approach is uncertain but lets the demand side of AI be modeled, not just supply.

  “from when your first two months to twelve months later, your token usage goes up like eight times. And then after that, it goes up at sort of like 25% a year.”at 13:23

• Christian Munafo · VanEck

  Next-generation chips, photonics and interconnects will make AI infrastructure far more efficient.

  The old world is building the new, but the new world is also expected to make the environment much more efficient. Next-generation compute and chip technologies, photonics and quantum, along with better interconnects and switching, should let data center capacity, which is not fully utilized today, be used better. Power consumption should also fall.

  “the new world we believe is also going to make this whole environment much more efficient.”at 20:46

AI: overall outlook

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  AI trade's big-picture trend is intact; Q3 showed nothing systemic that would end it.

  Jan says the big-picture AI trend looks the same, with a lot of discipline in public markets and less in private markets, which will keep changing. He argues nothing so systemic happened in Q3 that would make him call the trend over. He also says that underweighting tech or semis has been expensive for investors who got it wrong.

  “The big picture trend looks the same. There is a lot of discipline in the public markets. ...There's nothing so systemic that happened in Q3 that would lead me to say this thing, this trend is over.”at 43:04

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  Technology is a megatrend, and VanEck is overweight tech despite discomfort it causes investors.

  VanEck is overweight technology in its equity positioning. Jan says this makes people uncomfortable, but he sees technology as a megatrend with a lot happening, as discussed earlier in the presentation. He gives little new evidence in this section, so the case rests on the earlier material.

  “We think it's a mega trend. We think it's a lot of stuff happening like we talked about, but that's our equity positioning.”at 1:18:32

US deficit & government debt

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  Budget deficit hit $2 trillion as tariff revenue fell short; a long-term problem.

  Jan says the deficit as a share of GDP fell in Trump's first hybrid year, but then moved the wrong way. Tax revenue came in below expectations, mostly from lost tariff revenue, while outlays still rose, pushing the deficit to $2 trillion. He calls it a big long-term problem whose timing he cannot predict, possibly five or ten years, and says it is why he is the biggest bond bear, though government spending is not what is driving yields now.

  “Revenue was less. Tax revenue was less than expected. Most of that was tariff, loss of tariff revenue and then outlays were still up.”at 57:07

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  US government spending is a megatrend risk that will eventually manifest.

  Jan cites US government spending as a megatrend risk that will show up at some point. He presents it as one of the reasons for the structural overweight in real assets. He gives no specific numbers or mechanism in this section, so the view is thin.

  “Plus, I think there's this megatrend risk of, US government spending, which will manifest itself at some point.”at 1:19:33

Gold & precious metals

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  Ten-year very bullish on gold; ETF buying suggests early innings of a long-term bull market.

  Jan has a ten-year bullish view on gold. He says technical indicators he watches, such as ETF buying, suggest the market is in early innings of a long-term bull market. He says gold corrected after a huge run to all-time highs earlier this year and that the correction has been disciplined, with the price holding support. He cites record non-central-bank Chinese gold buying that is double last year's pace, which he reads as smart buying into weakness and a safety allocation.

  “I am ten year very bullish on gold. And I think that all the technicals I look at, like ETF buying or whatever, suggest we're in early, early innings of a long term bull market there.”at 1:01:54

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  Gold miners paid off their debt and aren't finding new mines, so existing reserves are valuable.

  Jan notes gold miners carried huge net debt in the zero-rate era. As gold prices rallied, they paid it off and are no longer leveraged players. Production is rising, but miners are not finding new gold mines or spending heavily on exploration, so the assets existing companies own are valuable. He says energy companies have also become disciplined in spending.

  “as gold prices started rallying, they've paid off all of that debt... They're just not leveraged players the way they used to be.”at 1:02:37

Oil & fuels

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  US shale output gains of 8-10 million barrels a day are unlikely to repeat as demand grows.

  Jan says US oil production rose eight to ten million barrels a day during the shale boom. He thinks the shale cycle will eventually run its course, so that growth is unlikely to repeat. Global oil demand keeps rising, which he sees as a bullish factor for oil.

  “...we're at some point going to reach the end of the shale cycle. So, US oil production has gone up eight, nine, 10,000,000 barrels a day and that's unlikely to repeat.”at 1:05:06

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  Energy equities ignore higher 2027 oil prices, and buybacks lift shareholder yield to double digits.

  Jan says commodity prices for 2027 are still high, but energy equities are not pricing that in. Energy companies pay dividends of only 2-4%, which looks unexciting with a 5% rate world. But they are buying back large amounts of stock, so dividends plus buybacks, or shareholder yield, is in the high single digits to low double digits for companies Van Eck owns. Investors who only look at dividend yield miss two-thirds of the story.

  “But what they're really doing with their huge cash flow is they're buying back a ton of shares and that's what's in yellow.”at 1:06:17

Commodities (broad)

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  Advisors are far underweight real assets versus 10-20 years ago, despite attractive trailing returns.

  Jan cites a Van Eck study showing the financial advisor industry is far underweight real assets compared with ten or twenty years ago. He attributes it partly to passive investing, since energy's share of the S&P shrank as tech grew, and partly to no fresh money going into real assets and a generation of investors ignoring their returns. He says trailing three- and five-year returns are attractive, and Van Eck's real assets allocation is not gold-only.

  “...financial advisor industry, generally speaking... is way underweight real assets relative to where they were ten or twenty years ago.”at 1:07:40

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  VanEck is structurally overweight real assets to smooth portfolio performance across economic cycles.

  Real assets are a structural overweight at VanEck. The stated reason is that they smooth out a portfolio's performance ride across different economic cycles. Jan treats this as a durable portfolio-construction edge, not a short-term tactical trade.

  “We are structurally overweight real assets because we think it smooths out your performance ride in your portfolio during different economic cycles.”at 1:19:19

US tax & spending policy

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  US fiscal policy remains stimulative and is unlikely to change after the midterms.

  Government spending is still high and still at least one foot on the gas pedal, down from two feet a couple of years after COVID, but still pretty stimulative. The midterms are unlikely to change this. A Democratic win in either chamber would require both parties to agree to contract fiscal policy, which is unlikely. Fiscal policy is also helping the US economy, at least in the short term.

  “government spending is still high and is still at least one foot on the gas pedal... it's still pretty stimulative. So that is probably not going to change with the midterms.”at 3:38

US housing

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  Higher mortgage rates are squeezing the US housing market.

  Mortgage rates have risen with the 10-year yield and are, in Van Eck's view, definitely squeezing the housing market. This is one of the reasons Van Eck describes monetary policy as neutral rather than stimulative.

  “mortgage rates are definitely squeezing the housing market.”at 4:38

Professional services & law

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  AI disruption of consulting is overstated, since AI doesn't unemploy people tied to software projects.

  Software and adjacent consulting firms that implement software projects at big companies are among the first industries AI is disrupting. Accenture is a leader in that area, and its stock has been destroyed. But AI doesn't unemploy the whole world or specifically the people directly related to software. AI has three components, data, software and people, and companies are shifting toward data, which still needs people.

  “And Accenture is a leader in that. And you can see how its stock got destroyed... it turns out that AI doesn't unemploy the whole world, right? And it doesn't specifically unemploy the people who are directly related to software.”at 18:33

Open-source AI models

• Christian Munafo · VanEck

  Token consumption is shifting to cheaper open models that are good enough, and the open-model lag is steady.

  Token consumption is increasingly moving from large frontier closed models to generic open models that are good enough and much cheaper. Open models are about four to six months behind the frontier, per Epoch AI, and that gap has been fairly consistent because frontier labs keep improving too. The data shows an active shift in usage, though the frontier models keep most of the revenue.

  “token consumption is increasingly shifting to these more generic open models that are good enough.”at 21:42

Frontier AI labs & model race

• Christian Munafo · VanEck

  Frontier labs keep most revenue despite open models taking token share, because enterprises pay for high-value use.

  Open-source models now carry over 70% of token consumption, but Anthropic and OpenAI still take over 70% of revenue. High-impact use cases such as advanced coding, software engineering, forecasting and agentic workflows come at a premium and need enterprise security. Switching costs for enterprises like VanEck are high. Open models are about four to six months behind the frontier, a gap Epoch AI data shows has been consistent. Christian says the team lacks full conviction on ten-year outlooks, so this is an ongoing debate.

  “the majority of the revenue generation continues staying with these frontier models... those high impact, high value use cases come at a price.”at 22:16

IPOs, M&A & deal activity

• Christian Munafo · VanEck

  The IPO window is far from open, with exit value concentrated in a few companies.

  US listed companies have roughly halved over recent decades while private companies have soared to 50,000 to 60,000, and US venture companies hold about $11 trillion in total value. Exits have not been enough to return capital, creating a TVPI glut. Historic DPI is low, after COVID and the 2022 to 2024 rate hikes. Most exit value has come from a few companies, such as SpaceX, so the IPO window is far from open.

  “The IPO window, in our view, is far from open.”at 30:52

Enterprise AI adoption & AI software

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  Anthropic's push into enterprises has corporate America spending on AI, the Q1 breakthrough.

  Jan argues the end consumer for AI is corporate America, and that the breakthrough of Q1 was Anthropic plugging into enterprises, after which companies said they wanted to spend money on AI. He uses this to argue that AI revenue reflects real corporate demand, though he gives no metric and the argument is brief.

  “Anthropic plugged into corporate America, and corporate America is saying, I want to spend money on AI.”at 39:05

AI chips & semiconductors

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  Memory chip makers are still young and should not be overvalued; cautionary email sent in Q2.

  Jan says Van Eck sent clients a cautionary email in Q2 on memory chips, an area of past pain for tech investors. He contrasts Nvidia, which he likens to a mature 21-year-old, with memory chip companies, which he says are still like teenagers. He says he would not overvalue them, though he hedges that the outcome is still to be seen.

  “...the memory chip company, a lot of em are 21 but they are still like a teenager, you know, and I wouldn't, you know, over overvalue them.”at 42:28

Private credit

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  Private credit pressure is mainly rate-driven, not collapsing holdings; credit marks will lag.

  Jan argues the pressure comes mainly from higher yields. At 9-10% yields in a zero-rate environment, private credit looked attractive, but with the 10-year above 5%, that value proposition is diminished and puts pressure on the rest of portfolios. He says regulatory scrutiny and SaaS pressure were the first-half fundamentals, which he thinks are largely priced in. Loans marked below about 80 cents rose in the first half and are settling, and credit marks lag because loans are not marked to market, as with commercial real estate after COVID.

  “The bond squeeze, all of these value propositions, it's one thing to offer 9%, 10% yields in a zero interest rate environment. It's different if the ten year bond is offering over 5%”at 46:36

US dollar

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  Dollar holding firm against developed-market peers shows no broad selling of US assets.

  Jan says the most important thing he watches in the bond sell-off is dollar strength. If investors were really selling the US, they would be selling the dollar too. The dollar has held strong against other developed-market currencies, which makes him less worried about the recent market move.

  “the most important thing that I look at ... is just the strength of the dollar. So if people were really selling The United States, they'd be selling the U.S. Dollar as well.”at 50:20

International equities

• Jan van Eck · VanEck

  India is near the bottom of its valuation range; still a ten-year bullish trade despite bad news.

  Jan calls India his worst call, hit by the Iran conflict as an energy importer, tariffs, and AI concerns since it is an IT outsourcer without native memory chip makers. Now that most investors have given up on it, valuations are at the bottom of their range. He still sees a ten-year trade on high GDP growth, India becoming the fourth major consumer market, an equity culture with hundreds of IPOs a year, and deregulation and digitization. He suggests dollar cost averaging for adventurous investors.

  “now that everyone has given up on India, it's finally getting to the bottom of its valuation range.”at 1:13:53