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What podcasters are saying about US tax & spending policy
Summary
In the past 30 days, 21 speakers on 14 finance podcasts discussed US tax & spending policy in 26 views. Chorus has followed US tax & spending policy since September 22, 2026: 27 views from 22 speakers on 15 shows.
Who talks about it most
- Jay Hatfield · 2
- Ariana Salvatore · 2
- Vincent Deluard · 2
- Owen Zidar · 2
- David Rosenberg · 2
- Natasha Sarin · 1
- Luke Gromen · 1
- Libby Cantrill · 1
- Danny Moses · 1
- Joel Salatin · 1
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Jay Hatfield · Infrastructure Capital Advisors
Corporate tax rates strongly drive growth; cutting them lifts savings, investment and growth.
Hatfield says corporate tax rates are roughly 80% correlated with economic growth across the world, and that Europe including Scandinavia has similar low rates. Cutting corporate taxes raises national savings, investment, return on invested capital and earnings growth. He cites an IMF study: each 10% of national savings yields about 1.5% of growth. He says the pandemic masked this effect, but it is visible across countries.
“Corporate tax rates are 80% correlated to economic growth across the world. ... Every 10% of national savings produces 1.5% of growth.”at 53:58
Excess Returns: Tech is Selling Off. AI Debt Fears Are Rising. So Why Does a $4B Manager See a Reverse Bubble? ·
Jay Hatfield · Infrastructure Capital Advisors
A 2028 Democratic-socialist win and 30% corporate tax rates could cut stocks about 30% over time.
Hatfield says he is worried about 2028, because a Democratic-socialist win would bring a 30% corporate tax rate. Using his tax-growth mechanism, he expects lower growth (about 1.5% rather than 3%) and a roughly 30% decline in stocks over time, not discontinuously. He notes that a wide base of 529-style accounts would leave everyone exposed to that drag.
“So that's why I'm worried about '28 because if the democratic socialists take over, we're gonna get 30% tax rates, probably have a 30% decline in stocks over time, not discontinuously.”at 54:33
Excess Returns: Tech is Selling Off. AI Debt Fears Are Rising. So Why Does a $4B Manager See a Reverse Bubble? ·
Natasha Sarin · Yale Law School / The Budget Lab at Yale
Raising corporate tax on the top 2% of multinationals could bring in hundreds of billions over a decade.
The corporate tax rate fell from 35% to 21% in the last Trump administration, which gave companies more than they had asked for. Corporate income tax has fallen to well under 2% of GDP. The rate can stay in place for 98% of companies, and a better tax on the largest, most profitable multinationals can raise hundreds of billions over the next decade.
“We definitely a thousand percent can, and it's just about the top 2% of the most profitable largest multinationals you can raise on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars over the course of the next decade.”at 34:19
Bloomberg Surveillance: Markets Price in Tech Spending and Midterm Elections ·
Luke Gromen · Forest for the Trees (FFTT)
Bessent's planned fiscal consolidation could hit stocks and commodities after the election if Democrats win.
Bessent has warned that if Democrats win he will be forced to carry out his planned fiscal consolidation within about two months, from November 4 to January 3, 2027. Gromen reads this as a possible rationale for a market sell-off. Stocks and commodities would tank, and bonds would be the place to own. He suggests that a heads-up given to traders may have helped drive the anomalous Thursday bond rally.
“Bessent has warned that if the Democrats win, he will be forced to do his planned fiscal consolidation in the span of two months, from November 4 through 01/03/2027.”at 16:10
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #556 Luke Gromen: US Midterms & Beyond ·
Libby Cantrill · PIMCO
US federal spending will keep rising regardless of which party wins Congress, with the mix shifting by outcome.
Cantrill argues that if both chambers flip, obstruction will block new legislation such as the proposed $5,000 checks. Spending would still rise, because her firm expects more spending whoever wins Congress. Only the composition changes: a Republican-led Congress would tilt toward defense and health care, and a split Congress would push spending toward more defensive areas, mainly health care and defense.
“And then I think interestingly, there'll be more spending. And this is something that we think there'll be more spending regardless of who wins congress.”at 43:48
Bloomberg Surveillance: Outlook for Inflation, Oil, and Tech ·
Danny Moses · Moses Ventures
The tax bill pulled spending forward; pay-fors and health costs will hit from 2027.
Danny says the tax bill pulled forward a lot of activity and benefits into the current period. He argues that when the calendar flips to 2027, health care costs and other obligations come due, and the pay-fors arrive later. He says the market has enjoyed these pull-forwards and suggests they are not priced in for 2027-28.
“all the pull forwards came now. And then when we flip the calendar in 2027, health care costs, all those other things... The pay fors are coming later.”at 44:18
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Ariana Salvatore · Morgan Stanley
Divided government would make fiscal legislation harder to pass, bringing contentious fights over funding, debt limit and defense.
Ariana argues that congressional control matters most for fiscal policy, unlike other policy areas. A divided government would make new legislation harder to pass. That would likely produce more contentious negotiations over government funding, the debt limit and defense spending. She frames this as the main way the midterm outcome matters for policy.
“Where congressional control matters more is on fiscal policy. So a divided government would make new legislation harder to pass, and that could mean more contentious negotiations over things like government funding, the debt limit, and defense spending.”at 2:23
Thoughts on the Market (Morgan Stanley): Signals to Watch in the U.S. Midterms ·
Ariana Salvatore · Morgan Stanley
Midterms may start shaping a 2028-29 tax debate on AI and buildout; markets will price expectations early.
Ariana expects no meaningful federal tax reversal from a change in Congress. The president keeps veto power for the next two years, which creates a big hurdle to major tax changes. The midterms could still start a different tax debate heading into 2028 and 2029, focused on AI and the buildout. Markets can reprice expectations well before any legislation arrives, so tax risk is a forward-looking issue for investors.
“But at the same time, the midterms could start to lay the groundwork for a different tax debate heading into 2028 and '29, specifically around AI and the build out. For markets, expectations can start changing well before legislation actually arrives.”at 5:54
Thoughts on the Market (Morgan Stanley): Signals to Watch in the U.S. Midterms ·
Vincent Deluard · StoneX
100% expensing has halved corporate tax receipts and encourages capital misallocation.
Corporate income tax receipts have fallen about 50% over two years despite a historic earnings boom. The cause is the accelerated depreciation rule that lets firms deduct 100% of capex in the year it is spent. He argues this gives an incentive to misallocate capital, since the write-off is effectively free money that never hits reported earnings, so companies spend because it reduces taxes.
“you're allowed to depreciate 100% of that the year you spend it, which I think also gives an incentive to misallocate capital. It's effectively free money.”at 13:33
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
Vincent Deluard · StoneX
A Democratic-led period of higher US taxation would be a poor backdrop for asset prices.
Deluard expects that if the economy weakens, the fiscal response will turn into a blame game. Trump will argue that markets were at highs under his majority, and Democrats will be blamed for the downturn. He thinks a period of taxation would suit Democrats politically and help them going into 2028. He notes that taxation has historically been a poor environment for almost any asset.
“a period of taxation would not be bad for the Democrats going into 2028... yes, taxation, which is historically not a great time for really any asset.”at 1:02:22
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
Joel Salatin · Polyface Farm
Farm subsidies distort crop choices and inflate land values; the taxpayer will not keep funding them.
Salatin argues subsidies distort the market. Six crops are subsidized, five of them edible, so the subsidies pull farmland toward crops nobody needs. He cites a $12 billion soybean bailout last year after China stopped buying. He says subsidies inflate farmland prices because owners can profit even when their product is not needed, and that the taxpayer will eventually stop accepting artificially produced surplus.
“last year, Trump gave the soybean farmers a $12,000,000,000 bailout”at 13:45
Wealthion: Where Joel Salatin Would Invest $1 Million in Agriculture ·
David Friedberg · The Production Board
Lower tax and government spending as share of GDP expands individual opportunity; the US should move down.
Friedberg uses a chart showing France collects the most tax revenue as a percent of GDP, at 46%, and says government share and tax share move with growth. He argues quality of life and individual progress fall as the government takes a larger share of GDP, and rise as it shrinks. The US should move down that chart.
“as tax revenue goes down as a percent of GDP and as government spending as a percent of GDP goes down, your opportunity as an individual, the basis of the foundation of this great country improves.”at 1:28:19
All-In Podcast: AI Cyber Panic, Ken Griffin's Bubble Warning, The Fall of France? ·
Owen Zidar · Princeton University
The 2025 pass-through deduction costs about $1 trillion with little effect on jobs or investment; it should be cut first.
The 2025 law gave qualifying pass-through owners a deduction that lets them pay under 30% instead of the 37% top rate. Zidar says it cost roughly $1 trillion. He argues this kind of provision is good at accelerating gains for owners but does little for employment and investment, so it is a poor use of revenue. He says it should be first on the chopping block in tax reform. He grounds the view in a results-based approach to fiscal policy, which asks what real activity a tax change produces.
“in 2025, there's about a trillion dollars of this large pass through deduction that basically said if you're a qualifying pass through owner, instead of paying the 37% top rate, you get to pay less than 30%. And that really has very little impact on employment and investment, and it was hugely expensive.”at 13:21
Prof G Markets: Meet The Millionaire Class That Really Runs America ·
Eric Zwick · University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Tax code treats business owners' profits more favorably than wages, letting owners pay lower effective rates than salaried workers.
Owners of private businesses take most of their income as profits rather than wages. The tax code prefers that income: it avoids payroll tax, the ACA surcharge and income tax, so owners can shift salary down within the rules, with an accountant and lawyer making it defensible. Owners then pay lower effective rates than a salaried employee doing the same work in a big company. Reinvesting profits and selling the business taxes gains at lower capital gains rates, and passing the business to heirs through trusts and valuation strategies can avoid estate tax, with the basis step-up eliminating capital gains. He argues this is fundamentally unfair, because the income is still mostly labor, and it erodes public faith in the tax system.
“most of the income that you receive from that business is gonna come out not in the form of wages, but in the form of profits. And that is because the tax code prefers that income. You don't pay payroll tax on that.”at 40:44
Prof G Markets: Meet The Millionaire Class That Really Runs America ·
Owen Zidar · Princeton University
Harmonizing income and capital gains tax rates would reduce tax-motivated relabeling; a large 1986-style overhaul is feasible.
Because people reclassify income to get lower rates, a natural step is to bring rates closer together so the labels stop moving taxes so much. Some preferences, such as investment incentives that have broader growth spillovers, are worth keeping, so the approach should be judicious. He argues a large-scale overhaul is more feasible than piecemeal changes, because most people can come to think the result is better than before, and cites the 1986 tax reform as a precedent that cleaned up many loopholes.
“one natural step is to harmonize rates to be closer together so that these labels won't move your taxes as much.”at 48:55
Prof G Markets: Meet The Millionaire Class That Really Runs America ·
George Pollack · Signum Global Advisors
A corporate tax hike to 25–28% is likely early in the next Congress, if Democrats win the Senate.
Pollack says there is legitimate concern that a deal could raise the corporate tax rate by four to seven points, from 21% to 25% or 28%. This could ease bond market and deficit worries. He argues that a Democratic Senate, with Elizabeth Warren as banking chair, would make this more likely. He expects any proposal in the first six months of the next Congress, since investigations of the president and corporations would make deals harder after that. Politically, few want to defend corporate taxes.
“there's legitimate concern that they can work on some kind of deal to increase the corporate tax rate by [four to seven points]... from 21 to 25 or to 21 to 28.”at 16:14
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 21st, 2026 ·
Brad Gerstner · Altimeter Capital
Trump accounts and stock gifts will channel trillions of dollars of philanthropy into children's accounts.
Gerstner says the platform is the most disruptive direct charitable vehicle in the country. Single-page donor agreements with the Treasury let donors sponsor any zip code or state and send money straight to kids, cutting out intermediaries. He says America is the most giving country and that giving has been hard, so this should draw large bequests. He also says OpenAI and Anthropic will contribute, citing Anthropic's document about giving 5% of funding to citizen accounts.
“We're gonna see trillions of dollars of bequests and other things flow through this platform because the reality is America is the most giving country on the planet.”at 43:24
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Musk Floats Mega-Merger, United CEO on Airfares & Fuel 10/21/26 ·
Scott Kirby · United Airlines
Passive wealth growth escapes tax and should be taxed, while income taxes should fall.
Kirby says wealthy people can invest and let money grow tax-free for life, and then get a step-up in cost basis at death, so the gains are never taxed. He says hardworking Americans pay about 40% of their income in tax, and that feels unfair. In his view, a system with lower income taxes and taxes on the gain in wealth would be fairer. He says this is one non-consensus view, not policy advocacy, and that there are many ways to do it.
“Like, I think as a matter of fairness, passive wealth growth ought to be taxed somehow.”at 54:32
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Musk Floats Mega-Merger, United CEO on Airfares & Fuel 10/21/26 ·
Jan van Eck · VanEck
US fiscal policy remains stimulative and is unlikely to change after the midterms.
Government spending is still high and still at least one foot on the gas pedal, down from two feet a couple of years after COVID, but still pretty stimulative. The midterms are unlikely to change this. A Democratic win in either chamber would require both parties to agree to contract fiscal policy, which is unlikely. Fiscal policy is also helping the US economy, at least in the short term.
“government spending is still high and is still at least one foot on the gas pedal... it's still pretty stimulative. So that is probably not going to change with the midterms.”at 3:38
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
Ken Griffin · Citadel
The 2018 tax cuts boosted productivity, but pandemic spending meant no fiscal room to renew them.
Griffin says the 2018 tax cuts were expected to reignite American productivity and entrepreneurialism, and he thinks that was right. He argues the key difference a year and a half ago was the pandemic spending, which reached about the same share of GDP as spending to win World War II. In his view, this meant the country lacked the fiscal space to renew the tax cuts. He says the Republicans' tax cuts over the last two years, rather than spending increases, are where they have their hands dirty.
“the view was this would reignite American productivity and entrepreneurialism. And I think he was spot on right.”at 35:12
Bloomberg Talks: Citadel CEO Ken Griffin Talks AI Bubble, US Midterm Elections & France Protests ·
David Rosenberg · Rosenberg Research
Fiscal impulse turns into a 0.6-point GDP drag next year, with midterm gridlock ahead.
Rosenberg says the One Big Beautiful Bill added more than half a point to GDP growth this year, but this is nonrecurring. As the boost fades, he expects a net drag of about 0.6 points on the economy next year. He expects Democrats to likely win the House and possibly the Senate after the November 3 midterms, creating divided government and fiscal gridlock, so no new fiscal support is coming. He notes Trump will keep foreign and trade policy power but be a lame duck on fiscal policy.
“I think that fiscal policy, when you look at the incremental impact on the economy next year, is gonna be a net drag of [0.]6%.”at 46:33
The Julia La Roche Show: #422 David Rosenberg: The Fed Is Going to Trip, Recession Odds Now Above 50% ·
Jesse Felder · The Felder Report
A Democratic sweep would make repealing the corporate tax cuts almost a no-brainer, a risk to equities.
Democrats would like to undo the corporate tax cuts, and if they gain control of the White House and Congress, reversing them is almost a no-brainer. Trump's veto power makes this less likely in the near term, but a full Democratic government would be a clear risk. Because corporate profit margins are at record highs, this tax risk is tied to the margin argument, and investors in equities are underpricing it.
“if you do get, kind of democratic control of the White House and Congress, undoing the corporate tax cuts is almost a no brainer.”at 48:38
Thoughtful Money: Is The Market Hitting Its Breaking Point? | Jesse Felder ·
Chris Whalen · Whalen Global Advisors LLC
Some Trump-era tax cuts will likely be rolled back to close the deficit.
Taxing labor and income is regressive, while taxing investment or the wealthy has limited revenue potential. Paying for the government requires a broad-based revenue effort. Democrats will likely propose taxes on investments, but the easiest step is reversing some Trump-era tax cuts.
“And that's why I think you may see some of the Trump era tax cuts get rolled back. That would be the easiest thing to do.”at 31:37
The Julia La Roche Show: #419 Chris Whalen: Mortgage Funeral, No Bond Rally & the Deficit Washington Won’t Talk About ·
Jim Iuorio · TJM Institutional Services
New tax laws, deregulation and foreign investment could help the economy hit on all cylinders.
Jim lists favorable policies in place: the new tax laws, particularly expensing for small businesses, deregulation, and foreign direct investment. He thinks these, along with oil prices falling another $10 to $15, could let the economy hit on all cylinders. He says there are a lot of good things in place.
“the new tax laws particularly expensing for small businesses. The deregulation and the foreign direct investment.”at 57:19
Thoughtful Money: Markets Face A Double-Threat Today | Jim Iuorio ·
Harley Bassman · Simplify Asset Management
Eliminating step-up basis and uncapping Social Security tax would raise revenue; wealth taxes won't work.
He expects politicians to uncap the Social Security payroll tax base, means-test Social Security and Medicare, and eliminate the step-up in basis, which lets gains escape tax at death. He thinks these changes could significantly raise revenue and narrow the deficit spread. A wealth tax, by contrast, is meaningless because the rich can game it, as it has in Europe. He argues the US had a balanced budget and surplus about 25 years ago, so the current deficit is self-inflicted.
“They're gonna go and get rid of the step up basis. ... I think things like that can significantly raise revenues, reduce that spread.”at 30:18
David Rosenberg · Rosenberg Research
One big beautiful bill's stimulus was one-off; no further fiscal stimulus after the November 3 midterms.
The one big beautiful bill was huge stimulus this year through the depreciation allowance and large income tax refunds. Together with the equity wealth effect on high-end luxury spending and the AI spending boom, it helped the economy do fairly well this year. But these were one-offs that cannot be extrapolated. The bill would never have passed without a Republican-dominated Congress. With a likely Democratic House after November 3, spending bills will stall, so there is no more fiscal stimulus in the economy after that date. The end of this fiscal support is expected to cool growth.
“The one big beautiful bill was huge stimulus for the economy this year. ... These were one offs, and they come to an end, basically. There's no more fiscal stimulus in the economy after November 3.”at 26:33
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #552 David Rosenberg: Navigating The Noise ·
Howard Marks · Oaktree Capital Management
The US must raise revenue via higher top tax rates and fewer preferences, and hold spending growth below GDP.
Marks prescribes a multi-part fix for the deficit. First, raise revenue as a share of GDP through higher income tax rates, especially at the top, since the top federal marginal rate is low relative to much of the postwar period, and by eliminating tax preferences. Second, hold spending growth below GDP growth. Third, boost productivity and growth. He says a country that won't cut spending has to look at revenue, and he doubts there is another solution. He admits few people will like these measures. The argument rests on the arithmetic of deficits and debt-to-GDP rather than a near-term forecast.
“Increase revenues as a percentage of GDP through higher income tax rates, especially at the upper end, where the top federal marginal rate is quite low relative to much of the postwar period”at 19:55
Howard Marks: memos and The Memo podcast: Shall We Repeal the Laws of Economics – Part III ·
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Chorus reports what speakers said. It isn't investment advice.