Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 21st, 2026

Netflix

Across the shows: 10 speakers in other episodes, 6 bullish and 6 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Alicia Reese · Wedbush SecuritiesBullish

  Netflix's slowdown stems from fixable management errors, not structural problems, so the stock stays Outperform.

  Reese says the slowdown was a management error in the ad rollout rather than a structural problem. Viewers are shifting time to YouTube and TikTok, which pressures engagement, but Netflix can resolve this. Cash from the layoffs should be redirected to more targeted content spend. Peter Rice, a former Disney executive with strong talent relationships, was brought in to firm up ad tech, improve targeting and integrations, and get the ad business moving faster.

  “it was a management error how this all happened. This is not necessarily structural. People are watching more YouTube, watching more TikTok, and that is putting pressure on engagement. But these are issues they could resolve.”at 24:19

• Alicia Reese · Wedbush SecuritiesBullish

  Netflix can raise ad CPMs and ad load because its ad load is currently an industry low.

  Netflix's ad load is the lowest in the industry. It currently avoids running ads against its most premium content, where it could charge higher CPMs. Instead, it runs more ads on serial and licensed content, which resembles linear TV. Reese argues Netflix can be more surgical, raising CPMs while increasing overall ad load. Its ad tech platform needs expanding to capture more dollars per unit of engagement. Advertisers will pay more rather than face a flood of ads.

  “The ad load is the industry low on Netflix. And what they're doing right now with the ad load is that they're really not advertising against their most premium content where they could get more higher CPMs for that.”at 26:32

• Alicia Reese · Wedbush SecuritiesBullish

  Netflix's price increases produced far lower churn than expected, so Wedbush stays Outperform.

  Reese's survey work shows very low churn and high retention across Netflix's price increases in all regions. This corroborates what Netflix said on its earnings call. Netflix also has far more engagement per subscription dollar than competitors, which is why studios like Disney are licensing content to it. Churn is rising across other streaming services but not at Netflix. Reese says Netflix still has room to raise prices further, which is why Wedbush stays Outperform.

  “Across services, not Netflix, though. And this is why we're still outperform on Netflix because the price increases that they implemented resulted in significantly lower churn than we would have thought at this level.”at 27:42

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 23 speakers in other episodes, 19 bullish and 9 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Matt Stucky · Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management CompanyBullish

  Nvidia's multiple has compressed sharply as expected earnings rose far faster than the stock, making entry attractive.

  Expected calendar 2027 earnings for Nvidia are up more than 110% from where investors expected them last year, while the stock is up less than 20% over the same period. That gap reflects a large multiple compression. Stucky reads this as pessimism about the sustainability of the AI build-out leaking into valuation, which creates an opportunity if the current build-out momentum holds into next year. He also says semiconductors continue to do well fundamentally.

  “I think so. I mean, take NVIDIA... it's up more than a 110%. You have the stocks up, you know, just less than 20% during that time period. There's been a massive amount of multiple compression.”at 5:39

SK Hynix

• Matt Stucky · Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management CompanyBullish

  SK Hynix trades near 0.9x expected 2028 book value, too cheap for the growth it should deliver.

  SK Hynix trades at roughly 90 cents per dollar of expected 2028 book value. Stucky argues that this is not the sentiment investors would have if they were underwriting multiple years of steep earnings growth. He treats the low valuation as evidence of pessimism about the trade's sustainability. That pessimism, he says, creates an opportunity if the build-out momentum persists into next year.

  “Let's take SK Hynix as an example. The stock is trading, you know, roughly 90¢ of a dollar of expected book value in 2028.”at 6:02

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Matt Stucky · Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company

  Hyperscaler returns on AI compute look sustainable in the near term, backed by strong spot compute pricing.

  Stucky points to last night's earnings as a good indication that, at least in the near term, AI spending is generating sustainable returns for hyperscalers. He cites the gap between contract and spot compute rates, with spot pricing strong as SpaceX leans into spot compute. He notes that spot prices have risen about 30% year to date, which he reads as supply tightening against demand.

  “last night we got a pretty good indication that at least in the near term, things are fairly sustainable from a return perspective for hyperscalers.”at 2:51

• Matt Stucky · Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company

  Neoclouds, now about 10% of capacity, will supply about 40% of new compute over the next decade.

  Neoclouds were roughly 10% of existing AI compute capacity in 2025 but are the fastest-growing suppliers of new compute. Stucky cites research expecting them to supply about 40% of incremental supply over the next ten years. He sees this as a risk: if financing and sentiment become untenable for continued build-out, the main players that monetize compute, especially semiconductor makers, could face volatility. He still says that if demand is there, capacity will be attracted, so demand is the key question.

  “Take the Neo Clouds as an example. In 2025, they're roughly around 10% of existing capacity, but they are the fastest growing suppliers of new compute... they're expected to be 40% of incremental supply.”at 7:02

• George Pollack · Signum Global Advisors

  Voter opposition to data centers goes beyond money, so the electorally rewarded message is anti-AI.

  Pollack says developers are already offering community payments, such as teacher bonuses in Louisiana and property tax relief talk in Virginia, but these don't move votes. Voter concern runs deeper: property values, energy costs and local NIMBY sentiment. He argues the winning electoral message is anti-data center, citing Sherrod Brown's polling lead from leaning into that message. He says the pro-AI national security argument is correct but electorally ineffective.

  “the voter concern about data centers goes well beyond the money. It goes to the effect of their property values. It goes to the perception of the impact on their energy costs.”at 14:10

Credit markets

• Matt Stucky · Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company

  Stay underweight high yield; investment-grade bonds are a better diversifier because high yield trades with equities.

  Stucky's firm remains underweight high yield. He argues that high yield starts to correlate more with equities, so if the firm wants equity-like risk it would rather hold traditional equities directly. Investment-grade fixed income is an attractive starting point and a good diversifier. For the ten-year Treasury, he says a one-year forward skew for a 100 basis point rate move in either direction is attractive, with roughly a 1.5% drawdown against 12.5% upside.

  “We continue to remain underweight high yield... Leaking into high yield to us... starts to correlate more and more with equities, and we would rather just... lean into traditional equities if we're looking for that type of risk.”at 8:18

US elections & politics

• George Pollack · Signum Global Advisors

  Texas will go Democratic: Talarico's no-scandal message is resonating against Paxton despite Republican spending.

  Pollack still expects Texas to go blue. He says he avoids reading early voting data because anyone can tell a story with it. He points to Republicans increasing their spending without Paxton being able to push back on Talarico's message. Talarico's final ad stresses that he has never been indicted, investigated or impeached, which he expects to be compelling in a state where corruption is top of mind for voters.

  “I still have Texas going blue. While I always avoid looking at early voting data because anyone can tell a story with that data, I do find that with even Republican increasing their spending...”at 15:12

US tax & spending policy

• George Pollack · Signum Global Advisors

  A corporate tax hike to 25–28% is likely early in the next Congress, if Democrats win the Senate.

  Pollack says there is legitimate concern that a deal could raise the corporate tax rate by four to seven points, from 21% to 25% or 28%. This could ease bond market and deficit worries. He argues that a Democratic Senate, with Elizabeth Warren as banking chair, would make this more likely. He expects any proposal in the first six months of the next Congress, since investigations of the president and corporations would make deals harder after that. Politically, few want to defend corporate taxes.

  “there's legitimate concern that they can work on some kind of deal to increase the corporate tax rate by [four to seven points]... from 21 to 25 or to 21 to 28.”at 16:14