Speaker · Updated
Dan Nathan: latest market views
RiskReversal Media
Summary
Dan Nathan is an options trader, co-founder of RiskReversal Media and a regular 'Fast Money' panelist and CNBC contributor.
Chorus has 24 views from Dan Nathan across 6 episodes on CNBC Fast Money since October 19, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF and VanEck Semiconductor ETF; bearish on Amazon.com, Intel, Microsoft and Anthropic.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- Amazon.comBearish ·
- IntelBearish ·
- MicrosoftBearish ·
- AnthropicBearish ·
- JetBlue AirwaysBearish ·
- CoreWeaveBearish ·
- International Business MachinesBearish ·
- iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFBullish ·
- Meta PlatformsBearish ·
- Space Exploration TechnologiesBearish ·
- Bank of AmericaBearish ·
- VanEck Semiconductor ETFBullish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
IntelBearish
Intel's fab ambitions are misplaced and it is a weak AI hardware pick amid PC and memory pressure.
Nathan says Intel has struggled to build its own fabs for about two decades and is not good at it, so investors rewarding its ambitions looked goofy. He says it is probably very low on the list of names to play AI from a hardware standpoint. He notes PC demand is weak and memory prices are squeezing it, and that Dell's commentary did not match such severe PC weakness, so the stock is retracing the move.
“Intel's been contending with for probably two decades now. They're not good at it, right?”at 3:41
CNBC Fast Money: Amazon and Intel Report Results… And Alphabet’s Post-Earnings Plunge 10/29/26 ·
Amazon.comBearish
Amazon's advertising miss could be a problem on both retail and ads, a headwind to its high-margin moat.
Advertising grew 11-12% year over year, below the Street's expectation of about 18%. Nathan says advertising is a great-margin business, so a shortfall combined with a potential headwind from agentic AI shopping could be a problem on both the retail and advertising sides. He adds that Amazon will defend its moat and that nothing in the quarter or guidance makes the stock a buy, even though the selloff may be a bit overdone.
“if it's coming in below expectations and now you have this potential headwind of news, right, this could be a problem, not just on the retail sales side, but also that advertising side.”at 13:25
CNBC Fast Money: Amazon and Intel Report Results… And Alphabet’s Post-Earnings Plunge 10/29/26 ·
AlphabetUncertain
Alphabet's vertical integration is a real strength, but search profits funding the AI build face doubts.
Many investors, including him, like Alphabet's vertical integration. Search defended the business until last quarter. Chrome has about 70% global browser share, and Android is a major distribution channel. Search has been funding much of the AI build. Google is also buying compute from outside its ecosystem through deals with xAI and Anthropic. Still, investors are disappointed in enterprise and consumer AI, and Alphabet's margins have declined relative to peers while it raises cash for capex. He thinks the stock trades at about 20 times forward earnings.
“this is one where a lot of folks, including myself, they like the vertical integration here.”at 6:46
CNBC Fast Money: Alphabet Search Miss, Microsoft Azure Beat and Fed’s Hawkish Pause 10/28/26 ·
MicrosoftBearish
Microsoft's Copilot seat numbers could disappoint, and the stock could fall in the near future.
Microsoft did not report Copilot seats this quarter after disclosing them for three quarters, and he thinks that number will matter. The stock was trading near 52-week highs. Most analysts have buy ratings of 90% or more on these mega caps, so sentiment is too bullish across the group. If the narrative turns against the mega caps, or if Anthropic does not go well, the stock could fall. He sees real risk in the guidance and in how investors are reacting.
“I would not be surprised if we don't see a disappointment on those copilot numbers, and you'll see Microsoft down at some point in the not so distant future.”at 16:29
CNBC Fast Money: Alphabet Search Miss, Microsoft Azure Beat and Fed’s Hawkish Pause 10/28/26 ·
Meta's Muse AI app is not what drives Meta's stock, at least in the near term.
Meta has been in the penalty box for about a year and a half. The stock's rally failed after the Muse launch, which he takes as a sign that Muse is not the driver, at least not in the near term. He also says most young people don't even know Muse exists, since it has roughly 10 million users.
“I actually think the failure of the rally post Muse, it kind of shows you that that might not be the driver, at least not in the near term.”at 24:38
CNBC Fast Money: Alphabet Search Miss, Microsoft Azure Beat and Fed’s Hawkish Pause 10/28/26 ·
Software names like ServiceNow and Workday may be the beginning of the end after the selloff.
ServiceNow and Workday are at the center of the software selloff. Remaining performance obligations, a proxy for backlog, look disappointing, and investors have been selling software for about a year and a half. Some models were more defensive than they should have been, so there was a baby-with-bathwater reaction. But for some of these names, this may be the beginning of the end. He says he does not have a strong view.
“Yes, there was a bit of a baby with the bathwater. Yes, there were some models that were a bit more defensive. But this might, for some of these names, kind of be the beginning of the end.”at 29:34
CNBC Fast Money: Alphabet Search Miss, Microsoft Azure Beat and Fed’s Hawkish Pause 10/28/26 ·
Lower-income consumers are strained by cumulative inflation, a K-shaped economy with weak lower-end spending.
Nathan says GDP growth is coming largely from AI spending, and that the lower end of the K-shaped economy is dealing with the accumulated effects of inflation. He notes that Bessent and Powell have made similar points. He concludes there is a real problem for lower-income households even as the upper end benefits from AI-driven growth.
“then you gotta get back to the K and the lower end of the K is dealing with the accumulative effects of inflation.”at 42:39
CNBC Fast Money: Alphabet Search Miss, Microsoft Azure Beat and Fed’s Hawkish Pause 10/28/26 ·
Oil and diesel prices are heading higher, with Ukraine refinery strikes adding to supply risk.
Nathan says the White House is signaling that oil and diesel are going higher right now. He links this to a possible restart of the war and to Ukraine bombing Russian refineries. He sees this unfolding between now and year-end and says he does not know what it does for inflation expectations or spending for citizens already struggling.
“And the White House is telling us that oil is going higher. They're saying it right now. That diesel is going higher.”at 43:11
CNBC Fast Money: Alphabet Search Miss, Microsoft Azure Beat and Fed’s Hawkish Pause 10/28/26 ·
MicrosoftBullish
Microsoft's 60,000-employee buyout shows it will win enterprise AI and do more with fewer staff.
Nathan calls the buyout offer to about a quarter of the workforce the most important news for the AI trade. He reads it as Microsoft defending free cash flow while rivals spend freely. He argues Microsoft is a winner in enterprise AI, already showing it through Copilot in Office 365, and can run more efficiently internally with fewer employees. He says Microsoft is in a very different position from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google.
“Here's a company that is trying to defend their free cash flow when they have seen a lot of their major competitors willing to give it up for the time being... they're going to be a winner in enterprise AI and they're basically demonstrating that right now”at 4:06
CNBC Fast Money: Anthropic’s long-awaited IPO filing... And next Fed decision on deck 10/26/26 ·
AnthropicBearish
Anthropic's roughly $2 trillion IPO pricing looks stretched; he would not buy the IPO soon.
Nathan lays out a rapid private-round markup: $30B raised at $380B in February, then another $5-6B at about $956B in May, now pricing a $2T IPO. He calls this a sign the company may be ahead of itself. He asks who the incremental buyer is, since the large mutual fund complexes already own it and participated in earlier rounds. He warns that if it opens near $2T, gravity applies, as with SpaceX. He says the business may be strong, but that is not yet proven and is being underwritten now, so buying on the IPO does not look interesting to him anytime soon.
“In February, they raised 30,000,000,000 at 380,000,000,000, and then in May, they raised another 5 or six, I think, at 956,000,000,000, and they're pricing a $2,000,000,000,000 IPO. And if you're looking for signs that things have gotten a little maybe ahead of themselves, this is it.”at 7:17
CNBC Fast Money: Anthropic’s long-awaited IPO filing... And next Fed decision on deck 10/26/26 ·
AI model price war will push costs toward zero; value will accrue to applications, not model labs.
Each new Anthropic model is marketed as cheaper, and Nathan says OpenAI and Anthropic are in a real price war. The hope is that cheaper tokens drive more usage, and so far the data suggests usage is rising enough to offset lower prices. He is not sure OpenAI and Anthropic will capture the value. He thinks value will be created in applications built on top of the models, and that businesses deploying AI are happy to see costs fall.
“As the cost of the models come down and they are in a price war, make no mistake about it, between OpenAI... I'm not so sure it's OpenAI and Anthropic.”at 13:33
CNBC Fast Money: Anthropic’s long-awaited IPO filing... And next Fed decision on deck 10/26/26 ·
Sports, betting & prediction markets
Election prediction markets can sway opinion; midterm race betting has tripled 2024 levels.
Nathan says midterm betting on these platforms for congressional races has already tripled 2024 levels. Although the dollar amounts are small, tens of millions rather than billions, the odds can be quoted across news outlets and change hearts and minds. He sees risk that people with self-interest in an election can exploit that influence, which was not a concern a couple of decades ago.
“has tripled the twenty twenty four level for congressional races already.”at 26:26
CNBC Fast Money: Anthropic’s long-awaited IPO filing... And next Fed decision on deck 10/26/26 ·
JetBlue AirwaysBearish
JetBlue must reorganize; its debt load and weak profitability cannot be grown away.
JetBlue has the same problems airlines have repeatedly shown. Fuel costs are a recent shock, but the company's underlying issue is its debt load and profitability. It will have to reorganize, because it is not clear how it can grow its way out of the debt pile and profitability troubles.
“this is a company that's gonna have to reorganize. Right? Like, don't know how you kinda grow your way out of that debt pile and the troubles you're having from a profitability standpoint.”at 42:13
CNBC Fast Money: Anthropic’s long-awaited IPO filing... And next Fed decision on deck 10/26/26 ·
Meta PlatformsBearish
Muse monetization unproven and buying after the rally looks premature at these levels.
Nathan says Meta has no clear sense of how Muse will be monetized. Ecommerce companies such as Amazon, travel firms and banks do not want AI agents coming in right now, which limits the commerce route. He recalls that Threads had large distribution but never caught on, so Meta's reach does not guarantee engagement. Given the big post-earnings move and the unclear monetization, he thinks it may be premature to buy Muse at these price levels.
“So to me, I think that like Muse, if you're buying it right here for that after we had that big move, I think it might be a little bit premature, especially at these levels.”at 5:58
CNBC Fast Money: Big Tech Earnings Filter In… And Coreweave’s Tangled Web 10/21/26 ·
Meta PlatformsBearish
Meta's new share class means heavy dilution to fund AI spending, and Zuckerberg keeps control.
Nathan argues the new non-voting class lets Meta raise money for the $140 billion build-out it guided to. Shareholders will be diluted, and Zuckerberg keeps his voting shares. He notes Meta is signaling it will have to raise a lot more cash. Google also raised $85 billion in equity, so this dilution will keep coming for shareholders even though cash flow has already deteriorated.
“you get diluted and Mark Zuckerberg gets to keep his voting shares... they're signaling that they're gonna have to raise a lot more [cash].”at 6:27
CNBC Fast Money: Big Tech Earnings Filter In… And Coreweave’s Tangled Web 10/21/26 ·
International Business MachinesBearish
IBM is one of the least interesting ways to play enterprise AI uptake right now.
Nathan says IBM's guidance was not raised even though the deals came back, and he suspects the company is being conservative. He says IBM is one of the least interesting ways to express views on companies deploying AI for customers. Enterprise uptake may be the right place to look, but IBM did not beat the low bar set three months ago in any meaningful way. He thinks software is an area to be selective in.
“I mean, so this is uninspiring, and I think that if you're looking ways to express, you know, views as it relates to what companies are utilizing AI or what companies are kind of deploying it for their customers, this is probably one of the most least interesting ones.”at 26:19
CNBC Fast Money: Big Tech Earnings Filter In… And Coreweave’s Tangled Web 10/21/26 ·
CoreWeaveBearish
If CoreWeave-type neoclouds reach scale, customer concentration and hyperscaler overflow demand is a risk.
Nathan says Musk's guidance of 10 gigawatts of compute by the end of 2027 is unlikely, since SpaceX may have only one gigawatt now. He argues that if SpaceX reached three or four gigawatts, that would be very negative for neoclouds. These companies have heavy customer concentration and are absorbing excess demand from major hyperscalers, so a self-built buildout would cut into that. He notes buyers are still present at $60, but some top shareholders may be reducing positions.
“They maybe have one right now... if they were ever to achieve, let's say, three or four gigawatts, that might be really negative for these companies that again have a lot of customer concentration.”at 34:33
CNBC Fast Money: Big Tech Earnings Filter In… And Coreweave’s Tangled Web 10/21/26 ·
CoreWeaveUncertain
CoreWeave's GPU-backed debt and customer concentration risk distress with wider ripple effects.
CoreWeave is absorbing excess demand from the major hyperscalers, which leaves it heavily exposed to customer concentration. Much of its debt is secured by GPUs, but Dan says it is unclear how that will turn out. Nvidia is the top shareholder at about 10.5% and is not expected to sell soon. He does not want the stock to move into further distressed territory, because the resulting ripple effects would reach assets that people consider very safe in the space.
“I don't think any of us want to see this thing get into further distressed territory because make no mistake about it, there would be ripple effects across all the things that you think are very safe in the space.”at 35:26
CNBC Fast Money: Big Tech Earnings Filter In… And Coreweave’s Tangled Web 10/21/26 ·
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFBullish
TLT has more upside after its bounce, possibly toward $48.05.
TLT has bounced nicely off its lows. Dan expects the ten-year yield to keep moving, with TLT possibly reaching around $48.05, and sees more room to the upside for the long-duration bond ETF.
“TLT's had a nice bounce off the lows. I think you see the ten year, check back to maybe $48.05. I think there's more room to go to the upside for TLT.”at 46:51
CNBC Fast Money: Big Tech Earnings Filter In… And Coreweave’s Tangled Web 10/21/26 ·
Space Exploration TechnologiesBearish
SpaceX's plan to go from 1 to 10 gigawatts of compute by 2027 is wildly implausible.
SpaceX has about one gigawatt of compute in the US and plans for 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027. He asks where the power will come from and where the roughly $500 billion will come from, since each gigawatt costs about $50 billion. He calls it the silliest thing he has ever heard, and says the company is worth about $2 trillion, so he is skeptical about the valuation as well. The timing is a long-term one, through end-2027.
“This is the silliest thing I have ever heard in my life.”at 14:11
CNBC Fast Money: Netflix & SpaceX Report Results… And Next Move For Neoclouds 10/20/26 ·
Meta PlatformsUncertain
Meta is probably too early to give a framework for monetizing its Muse AI agent.
Nathan says the stock was punished when Meta gave its capex number three months ago, when it traded at 52-week lows. A news event a month ago then produced a strong rally. He does not expect much of a monetization framework for Muse from the upcoming earnings. He thinks it is probably a bit early, since Meta is likely still figuring out how individuals and businesses use the product, and monetization depends on that.
“I wouldn't have high expectations about them kind of giving that much of a framework for how they're going to monetize Muse. I think it's probably a bit early.”at 44:14
CNBC Fast Money: Netflix & SpaceX Report Results… And Next Move For Neoclouds 10/20/26 ·
VanEck Semiconductor ETFBullish
Semiconductors remain a good trade; SMH's support near 540 and the 200-day make the pullback an opportunity.
Dan says the semiconductor group is interesting, and that the SMH ETF bounced off around 540, which gives it decent long-term support. The 200-day moving average sits just below the price. He is not giving up on what he sees as a sensible trade. He favours the broader chain of Taiwan Semi and plain-vanilla semis over the most worrying names, and he thinks the pullback is still an opportunity.
“If you look at the SMH... around five forty, which is where it bounced. You have some pretty decent long term support. You have the 200 just below here. I'm not giving up on what I think is a trade here.”at 12:39
CNBC Fast Money: Buying Opportunity In AI Pullback?... And Oil’s Next Move 10/19/26 ·
Bank of AmericaBearish
Bank of America's 2020–21 Treasury-heavy held-to-maturity book is a visible weakness that has hit the stock.
Dan points to Bank of America's held-to-maturity book. The bank loaded up on Treasuries in 2020 and 2021, and he says the losses from that positioning have played out. He says that one stuck out like a sore thumb, and that the stock has reacted to it over the last few months.
“we've known this story about their held to maturity book. Right? They were loading up on treasuries. This is back in 2020 and 2021, and you see how things have gone.”at 25:05
CNBC Fast Money: Buying Opportunity In AI Pullback?... And Oil’s Next Move 10/19/26 ·
Amazon.comUncertain
AI agents threaten Amazon's commerce and ad moats, making the battle to defend them a key 2027 storyline.
Dan credits AWS for re-accelerating strongly, with 37% year-over-year growth. He then argues agents are a threat to Amazon's sandbox. An agent buying what a shopper wants will not load up other items, and it will not click sponsored links, which hurts the advertising business. He says Amazon has to defend its moats, and that will be a battleground in 2027.
“Amazon has to defend their turf. They cannot let agents get into their sandbox... agents are coming for them, and that's gonna be a battleground, I think, in 2027 for Amazon.”at 29:13
CNBC Fast Money: Buying Opportunity In AI Pullback?... And Oil’s Next Move 10/19/26 ·
Shows
- CNBC Fast Money · 6 episodes
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