Amazon and Intel Report Results… And Alphabet’s Post-Earnings Plunge 10/29/26

Amazon.com

Across the shows: 24 speakers in other episodes, 24 bullish and 5 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Karen Finerman · Metropolitan Capital AdvisorsBullish

  Amazon's post-earnings selloff is overdone; the business and story remain intact despite the ad miss.

  Finerman says the stock has fallen a lot even though the bar it had to clear rose and the earnings were not terrible, so the selloff looks overdone. She expects it may last a couple more days. She acknowledges the advertising miss matters because advertising is a high-margin business. She also notes open questions about the return on invested capital from the capex and says she would like numbers on it, but she says the business and story are still intact and the valuation reset is significant.

  “I think it's somewhat overdone. I wouldn't be surprised if this lasts for a couple of more days or so, but I think that the business is still intact. I think the story is intact.”at 11:57

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBearish

  Amazon's advertising miss could be a problem on both retail and ads, a headwind to its high-margin moat.

  Advertising grew 11-12% year over year, below the Street's expectation of about 18%. Nathan says advertising is a great-margin business, so a shortfall combined with a potential headwind from agentic AI shopping could be a problem on both the retail and advertising sides. He adds that Amazon will defend its moat and that nothing in the quarter or guidance makes the stock a buy, even though the selloff may be a bit overdone.

  “if it's coming in below expectations and now you have this potential headwind of news, right, this could be a problem, not just on the retail sales side, but also that advertising side.”at 13:25

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  AWS growth back to mid-40s and triple-digit backlog growth make Amazon's selloff unwarranted; not a reason to sell.

  AWS growth of about 39% beat the consensus of 38%, and management guided to over 40% AWS growth for 2027 and 2028. Seymour argues that returning to the mid-40s is a great story, backed by an order backlog above $578B that has grown triple digits year over year. He says the retail and consumer concerns are not the right reason to sell Amazon, and that the AWS print is what investors should be happy about.

  “back into the mid 40s is a great story, especially with an order backlog that he also pointed out is north of $578,000,000,000 has grown triple digits year over year.”at 16:08

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset ManagementUncertain

  Personalized AI shopping bots will reshape commerce and likely hurt Amazon's business starting late 2027.

  Munster says personalized bots are nascent today and will become a larger part of the conversation. He expects them to start affecting Amazon's business late in 2027. Usage is fractional now, but he expects it to be widespread within a couple of years. People who use these bots say they have changed how they start their buying experience, which he argues affects both Google and Amazon. He also calls the narrative potentially a house of cards, since Amazon could adapt to bots.

  “these personalized bots are gonna become an increasingly part of the conversation. They're nascent today. Probably starts impacting their business late in 2027.”at 18:47

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset ManagementBullish

  Amazon's two-year AWS growth guidance is the most bullish AI data point in months, a strong cloud endorsement.

  Munster calls the two-year AWS segment guidance an over-the-top endorsement of how management sees cloud playing out, which is unusual because companies normally guide one quarter at most. He links it to the backlog, to the capacity being built, and to Meta's plan to raise spending sharply next year. He argues the stock move hides the significance of the guidance, which should not be lost. He also says the AI capex needs funding but is well spent because demand is strong, and that equity would be his preferred way to raise it.

  “This is probably the most bullish data point in AI over the past three or six months of all the data points that we get.”at 19:22

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset ManagementUncertain

  Amazon's AWS capex is meaningful and a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity; Amazon now positions itself as an AI company.

  Amazon described its capex spend supporting AWS growth as meaningful. Management sees it as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Munster says there may be some impact from that spending. He concludes that Amazon has repositioned itself as an AI company and is telling investors to focus less on retail.

  “But Amazon did give some commentary about the CapEx spend to support this AWS growth. And they said that it will be meaningful. They see this as a once in a lifetime opportunity.”at 46:43

• Karen Finerman · Metropolitan Capital AdvisorsBullish

  Finerman believes in Amazon and AWS, citing good numbers.

  In her final trade, she says she believes in Amazon and in AWS. She points to the quarter's results as good numbers. The case is brief and rests on the AWS results from the report.

  “I believe in Amazon. I believe in AWS. Those are good numbers.”at 47:16

Intel

Across the shows: 5 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBearish

  Intel's fab ambitions are misplaced and it is a weak AI hardware pick amid PC and memory pressure.

  Nathan says Intel has struggled to build its own fabs for about two decades and is not good at it, so investors rewarding its ambitions looked goofy. He says it is probably very low on the list of names to play AI from a hardware standpoint. He notes PC demand is weak and memory prices are squeezing it, and that Dell's commentary did not match such severe PC weakness, so the stock is retracing the move.

  “Intel's been contending with for probably two decades now. They're not good at it, right?”at 3:41

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBearish

  Intel was among the most inflated stocks; its operational struggles and missed data center demand justify the drop.

  Seymour argues Intel's run from about $40 to about $120-132 was driven by macro conditions unrelated to its core business, such as the shift in the CPU-to-GPU ratio. He says the company has not been able to keep up with data center demand, which is a big part of its business, and that it has not been able to do anything operationally. He cites multiple 20% drawdowns over the last couple of years, so the sharp fall is shocking but not a surprise. He calls Intel the worst house on a nice block.

  “I think Intel was one of the most inflated stocks in the market based upon the macro going around it.”at 7:08

• Michael Khouw · Optimize AdvisorsBearish

  Intel was never cheap, trading above 40x forward earnings despite losses and falling behind AMD.

  Khouw says Intel lost money last year and lost almost 90 cents a share the year before, and that it has run behind AMD in many areas, with Ryzen now preferred over Intel chips. He argues it already traded above 40 times forward earnings before the disappointing news, so it was not cheap even after the after-hours discount.

  “this thing was already trading more than 40 times forward before we got some news that isn't that great. It's not cheap. It wasn't cheap before these numbers came out.”at 9:23

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset ManagementBearish

  Intel's AI data center business is supply constrained, a negative data point for Intel.

  Intel said it will be supply constrained in its AI business, DCAI. The stock drifted another 4% lower on that comment. Munster sees this as a negative data point for Intel, with the sales likely going to Nvidia. He also agrees the PC outlook is weak. The supply constraint is good news for the broader AI trade, but it is a setback for Intel.

  “the Intel stock drifted another 4% lower on the comment that they're going to be supply constrained on their AI business, DCAI.”at 46:04

Starbucks

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 0 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Starbucks' numbers were excellent; the US turnaround and chart breakout make it a stock to own.

  Seymour says the numbers were excellent, with US same-store sales up near 8%, and that Brian Niccol is a marketing genius reinvigorating the US business even though cost savings matter too. He notes the stock is rallying on those US comps and is near a 107 breakout level after six months in a range. He says the company is holding serve, closing about 300 stores while opening 250 selectively, and that investors can own it despite consumer pressures.

  “I think Starbucks is kind of just... I think it's holding serve here. I think you can own it.”at 29:17

• Michael Khouw · Optimize AdvisorsBullish

  Starbucks' turnaround under new management is palpable; it is alright to own the stock here.

  Khouw says recent store visits on the West Coast show clear changes that make stores feel like local businesses rather than a global chain. He points to greeting customers, ceramic cups, and a comfortable setup for working, and says the company is doing the right thing. He has faith in the new management and says it is a difficult business that he was not expecting much from. He adds that the stock is just above its long-term 101 moving average, which he would be cautious about.

  “I think they're doing the right thing. I have a lot of faith in the new management here. It's a difficult business... but I think you're alright to own it here.”at 30:42

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 47 speakers in other episodes, 41 bullish and 15 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset ManagementBullish

  Amazon's AWS guidance is net positive for Nvidia despite Trainium competition.

  Munster says Amazon's Trainium training chip, which may be sold to outside customers from late 2027, is a well-funded competitor and is negative for Nvidia by any measure. However, the AWS growth guidance indicates strong demand for the capacity being built, and he argues that the bigger data point from the report is positive for Nvidia overall.

  “And so I think that, yes, it's negative, but I think the bigger data point tonight is positive for Nvidia.”at 22:19

Caterpillar

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Michael Khouw · Optimize AdvisorsBullish

  Caterpillar's deep selloff makes it a stock to start kicking the tires on.

  Khouw says Caterpillar is in deep bear market territory, far below its all-time highs, and that it had been getting a boost on potential construction spend tied to the AI trade. He thinks it had gotten a little frothy near the top, and now the market is shooting first and asking questions later. For those reasons he likes the name and sees it as a place to start looking.

  “I kinda like Caterpillar and I view this as maybe a place that I would start to kick the tires because I think it had gotten a little frothy up there at the top.”at 34:00

Alphabet

Across the shows: 36 speakers in other episodes, 26 bullish and 15 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Karen Finerman · Metropolitan Capital AdvisorsUncertain

  Alphabet's search monetization of AI queries is unclear; it is a show-me story for several quarters.

  Finerman says the call gave no sense of concern or urgency about search and no color on how AI queries will be monetized compared with traditional search. She notes AI queries are very different and face higher compute costs, and wants a roadmap to understand that. She also points to small misses like YouTube, and calls this a show-me-for-a-few-quarters story until a turnaround appears.

  “concern or urgency or anything about search... the monetization difference between an AI query and a traditional search. They're very different.”at 35:20

Eli Lilly and Company

Across the shows: 6 speakers in other episodes, 6 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  The market rewards Lilly for pipeline investment while punishing other big pharma that spends without payoff.

  He says investors are rewarding Lilly for investing in its pipeline, and he is not questioning where Lilly is spending its money. Other big pharma gets punished for similar spending. He points to Pfizer, which also spent heavily on seemingly unproven pipeline bets. The implication is that the market separates spending that is paying off from spending that is not.

  “And they're being rewarded for investing in the pipeline. We're not questioning where they're spending their money. There's certainly other big pharma out there that we punish them.”at 43:12

iShares Biotechnology ETF

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Mega-cap biotech is at all-time highs and breaking out; investors should not ignore the IBB.

  He argues that the IBB and mega-cap biotech are at all-time highs and breaking out. Gilead's excellent numbers are part of that move. The group is a strong performer that investors should not overlook.

  “just don't fall asleep on the IBB and at least... mega cap biotech. And they're all breaking out, but Gilead, these numbers were excellent.”at 43:25

Gilead Sciences

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Gilead's numbers were excellent; its HIV and HCV cash cows are rerating the stock to a high multiple.

  Gilead's HIV and HCV franchises have been great cash cows that were sometimes seen as shrinking. Despite that, the stock is rerating at a high multiple after excellent results. He implies the market is now giving credit to the cash generation, even though these businesses were not considered growth stories.

  “HIV and HCV... have been great cash cows and at times have been seen as shrinking. Meanwhile, the stock's rerating at a high multiple.”at 43:39