Parts Of Tech Showing Strength Amid Sell-Off… And A Catch-Up Call In Oil 10/23/26

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 39 speakers in other episodes, 39 bullish and 18 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLCBullish

  Meta's pullback leaves it at a level with high rebound potential after its big run-up.

  Carter notes Meta rose from about 5.25 in July to 7.75 before the recent sell-off. That means the 18% drop over three to four weeks is a pullback, not a broken chart. He concludes the current level offers high rebound potential.

  “So this pullback actually leaves it at a level where rebound potential is high.”at 6:46

• Bonawyn Eisen · CNBCBullish

  Meta is a name to watch on capex scrutiny; sentiment should turn as its capex history suggests.

  Eisen says Meta has a long history of facing capex scrutiny, then either pivoting or going all in and showing growth in other areas such as ads or its huge installed base. So she thinks it is a matter of time before sentiment changes, though she can't say when. She is monitoring it, though she wouldn't rush in yet.

  “I think that is a place you might wanna look. Again, I wouldn't rush into that, but I think there's a situation where we have a long standing history of them being faced with scrutiny around CapEx spending”at 11:17

• Bonawyn Eisen · CNBCBullish

  Meta is a poor bear-case example because its AI compute doubles up in advertising and recommendations.

  Eisen argues that Meta is the wrong example for the bear case on AI spending returns. For every unit of compute Meta buys, there is a second use in advertising and recommendation systems, so its AI spend is less exposed to the enterprise ROI problem than other companies' spending.

  “I'm really wondering if it's just the wrong poster child for the bear case because there's an argument to be made that for every unit of computer, it has a second use inside advertising and recommendation.”at 42:46

American Express Company

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bonawyn Eisen · CNBCUncertain

  American Express's 9% revenue growth roughly matches expense growth, with perks spend under scrutiny.

  Eisen says the quarter's numbers are strong but depend on what you look at. Revenue grew about 9% and expenses grew about 9%. Perks, benefits and marketing spend used to attract additional revenue are what is being called under scrutiny. She notes Visa and Mastercard are processors that don't take on the same creditor underwriting risk as Amex.

  “What I really focused on was a 9% revenue growth versus a roughly 9% expense growth. And as you mentioned, all of the perks and benefits”at 24:03

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBearish

  American Express has asymmetric downside; the beat came from lower provisions and SMB spend is uncertain.

  Tim says the quarter had nothing extraordinary, and part of the beat came from a smaller provision. Small and medium-sized business spend remains very uncertain. He sees asymmetric downside relative to the fundamentals and says there is nothing that makes him need to own Amex. He also ties the stock's chart to net worth in the stock market at the top of the K-shaped economy.

  “Part of the beat was because of less of a provision. Small to medium sized business spend is still something that's very uncertain. I think you have asymmetric downside here relative to the fundamentals.”at 25:31

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLCBearish

  American Express is lagging with bearish price-volume and poor relative strength.

  Carter says neither the lagging names nor the stretched names are desirable. American Express is lagging with bearish price-volume correlation and poor relative strength. He sees a weak technical setup for the stock.

  “[American Express] and Capital One lagging, bearish price volume correlation, poor relative strength.”at 26:08

Williams-Sonoma

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Williams-Sonoma can keep being held; second-half comps and margins look better into holidays.

  Tim says the stock has hit all-time highs and has been outperforming two of the biggest tech names. Pottery Barn is 39% of sales and the margin profile keeps improving. He says second-half comps get easier as a tariff element runs off, and a shrink comp from last year also improves. He sees more things looking better for the holiday season than ever.

  “I think you actually can probably continue to hold it. There's some second half of the year comps that get better based upon a tariff element that runs off.”at 29:56

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementUncertain

  Williams-Sonoma is executing well, but at 24-25x forward earnings much of the excitement may be priced in.

  Courtney says housing expectations are very low because the housing market is frozen, yet Williams-Sonoma is executing well, which is benefiting the stock. Her concern is valuation, which trades at about 24 to 25 times forward earnings. She asks how much of the excitement is already priced in. She expects a bigger unlock only when rates fall enough to open the housing market, which she doesn't see soon.

  “my only concern here is the valuation and now trades like 24, 25 times forward earnings. So I think the question is how much of that excitement is already priced in.”at 30:56

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLCBullish

  Williams-Sonoma is a stay-long; its three-year performance matches Ralph Lauren's.

  Carter notes Williams-Sonoma has the same three-year performance as Ralph Lauren, and they are in a dead heat. Because of that chart strength he says to stay long and be long the stock. He points out Tapestry has beaten both by a wide margin on the same measure.

  “it's a stay long, be long. You know, interesting, the exact same three year performance as Ralph Lauren, they are in a dead heat.”at 31:25

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 33 speakers in other episodes, 27 bullish and 12 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Adding Nvidia on this weakness looks attractive; semis have lagged badly since May.

  Tim argues that semis have pulled back to roughly May levels and have substantially underperformed on a relative basis. He sees this weakness as a very interesting time to add exposure to the SMH semis ETF or to Nvidia. He also notes the group's constraint is execution on capacity, not demand, so the sell-off may offer a better entry.

  “if you're adding [semis] here on some weakness, ... if you wanna add to NVIDIA, I think this is a very interesting time. ... semis are all way back to kind of May, and on a relative basis, they've really underperformed substantially.”at 3:39

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLCBullish

  Nvidia's three-week selloff has reached its rising 150-day moving average, a buy signal.

  Worth points to a three-week selloff in Nvidia that has fallen to a rising 150-day moving average. He reads that technical support as the point to buy the stock.

  “NVIDIA three week sell off to the penny to a rising hundred and fifty day moving average. Buy it.”at 47:05

SLB

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  SLB has strong earnings power and is a buy despite weak stock reaction to its results.

  Seymour says he is long SLB. Its EPS and adjusted EPS came in around $2 billion, above most of the Street's expectations, even though the stock reaction was poor. SLB has begun signalling that its Middle East operations are improving. The stock is up 40% this year despite the underperformance. He also likes its technology business and says the company positions itself as a data center play, so he sees earnings power and agrees with Worth's call.

  “I do like the services. I'm long I'm long. They just had some numbers... was better than most of the street had expected. I think the stock reaction is, you know, is not great.”at 36:45

• Bonawyn Eisen · CNBCBullish

  SLB is more attractive as a relative-value spread trade against XLE than as an outright long.

  Eisen agrees with Worth's call on oil services. She prefers SLB as a relative-value position rather than an outright play, using a spread against XLE that can be added to or taken off. She says shorting XLE takes some bravery, but she finds the spread more compelling.

  “I'm with Carter. I think I like it on a relative value basis rather than an outright play a little bit more.”at 37:25

Caterpillar

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBearish

  Caterpillar could fall further as euphoric money unwinds, not because of credit problems.

  Tim says Caterpillar and GE Vernova aren't expensive companies. The stock could fall because money has been euphoric in these names, not because of credit problems. He notes the Caterpillar chart could go to 600 or Vernova could, and that Caterpillar could certainly go lower. He thinks the adjustment is appropriate.

  “it's not because they're expensive companies with credit problems. It's just where the money has been euphoric,”at 4:29

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bonawyn Eisen · CNBCBullish

  Equal-weight S&P (RSP) is a place to hide out domestically, and the firm has added it.

  Eisen says RSP has underperformed for quite some time but allows investors to stay domestic without chasing EM or international performance. It also lets investors avoid the concentration in capitalization-weighted indices that is driven by the big tech names. The firm has added RSP to its portfolio for these reasons.

  “I also think that RSP is another place where you've been able to hide out. We've added that to the portfolio.”at 11:57

Delta Air Lines

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 0 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementBullish

  Delta is a rate-sensitive, cyclically hit airline and a near-term buy as an earnings story.

  Courtney says she is adding Delta back into models with GM and Home Depot. She describes these as companies whose earnings profiles look strong but that were hurt by cyclicality and interest-rate sensitivity. She sees areas that were hit harder as the better buys in the short term.

  “I'm also leaning in and again changing some models, actually adding back in a GM, Home Depot, which we've talked about, even a Delta Airlines.”at 13:07

The Home Depot

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementBullish

  Home Depot is a rate-sensitive name hit hard and worth adding for near-term upside.

  Courtney is adding Home Depot back to her models. She argues rate-sensitive areas that have been hit harder are better buys in the short term. She says lower rates would open up the frozen housing market, meaning more people need furniture and home products. She doesn't think that unlock is around the corner.

  “I'm also leaning in and again changing some models, actually adding back in a GM, Home Depot, which we've talked about, even a Delta Airlines.”at 13:07

General Motors Company

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementBullish

  General Motors is a rate-sensitive cyclical name hit hard and worth adding for near-term upside.

  Courtney is leaning in and adding GM back to her models. She wants industrials, small caps and anything more interest-rate sensitive that has been hit harder, because she sees those as areas of opportunity. She thinks other areas are better buys in the short term, and GM's earnings profile supports adding it.

  “I'm also leaning in and again changing some models, actually adding back in a GM, Home Depot, which we've talked about, even a Delta Airlines.”at 13:07

Capital One Financial

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bonawyn Eisen · CNBCUncertain

  Capital One's delinquencies ticked up, a stress signal to monitor in the K-shaped recovery.

  Eisen says Capital One has sequentially lower charge-offs and some loan loss reserve provisions being released. The thing that stands out is a slight tick up in delinquency. There are no defaults yet, but she sees more stress on the balance sheet in that cohort in the context of a K-shaped recovery. That is something to monitor.

  “So we haven't seen defaults, but we did see a slight tick up in delinquency. You're pretty much just seeing a bit more stress on the balance sheet in that cohort.”at 24:55

Mastercard

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLCBearish

  Mastercard is stretched far above trend, so he would fade it.

  Carter says Visa and Mastercard are good but too good. They have been huge laggards that played catch up as a flight to safety, and now they are stretched far above trend. He would fade them.

  “So Visa and Mastercard stretched far above trend and I would fade them.”at 26:17

Visa

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLCBearish

  Visa is stretched far above trend, so he would fade it.

  Carter says Visa and Mastercard are good but too good. They have been huge laggards that played catch up as a flight to safety, and now they are stretched far above trend. He would fade them.

  “So Visa and Mastercard stretched far above trend and I would fade them.”at 26:17

VanEck Oil Services ETF

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLCBullish

  Oil services ETF OIH is set to rebound and outperform the integrated-oil XLE on convergence.

  OIH has been terrible, and Worth argues it is a laggard against Exxon and Chevron, which are now extended. OIH's six-month underperformance versus XLE, a 2,700 basis point spread, has happened only about seven times in thirty years, so he expects convergence. On the chart, OIH held its prior intermediate low through the recent selloff, so he sees it moving higher. He frames it as both an absolute trade and a relative trade against XLE.

  “Second and final iteration of this particular ETF chart. I think you play higher here.”at 36:31

Starbucks

• Mike Khouw · OpenInterest.PROBearish

  Options market has turned bearish on Starbucks, with puts outpacing calls ahead of earnings.

  Khouw had been positive on Starbucks' turnaround, which he saw in the stores and in options flow. Over the last five days, sentiment has shifted. Puts are outpacing calls, and open interest in puts has climbed above calls, which is unusual for Starbucks and for single stocks generally. He concludes the options market is less convinced by the turnaround than he was.

  “we have seen puts outpacing calls and the open interest in puts has similarly now climbed above that of calls. That's unusual for Starbucks”at 46:15

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  AI trade isn't over, but capex ROI concerns will keep being scrutinized after Meta's results.

  Courtney says the AI trade is not over and investors should stay in it. She expects capex to keep being scrutinized because earnings season is now showing the spending numbers. Meta's Muse consumer adoption has been a wild success, but investors don't see the ROI yet, and she expects that to continue. Days like this show money rotating into other areas such as software, not leaving equities.

  “I don't think the AI trade is over by any means. I think you do wanna remain here, but I think this question over CapEx concerns is gonna be continue to be scrutinized”at 2:33

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  Markets are questioning whether AI spending by hyperscalers will ever turn into profitable revenue.

  Garcia says it is a genuine question whether AI use cases will eventually generate revenue that is profitable. Investors backing AI spending are asking whether each dollar is worth it. Earlier earnings reports justified the spending, but the question has returned after this earnings report.

  “I think the question is for all of the financial backers here, is that really worth every dollar they're spending? And everybody's starting to question that.”at 43:42

Credit markets

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Credit is repricing corporate risk; global CDS and spreads have widened to levels not seen since May.

  Tim says there is a credit component to the sell-off. Global CDS is about as wide as it has been since last May, and there is a repricing of corporate-grade risk. High-yield option-adjusted spreads have moved from about 260 to 340 in six weeks, and investment-grade spreads are widening alongside higher rates from heavy issuance. He sees credit markets tightening conditions and telling us how fast growth will slow.

  “there's no question there's a credit component to this, and we're all seeing the same stats about global CDS is kind of as wide as it's been since last May.”at 3:22

• Michael Cantopolis · Janus Henderson Investors

  Avoid corporate credit now; spreads are too tight, and stress and opportunity likely come in 2027.

  Cantopolis says Janus Henderson doesn't like run-of-the-mill fixed rate corporate bonds because spreads don't offer enough cushion for downgrades, defaults or business risk. Spreads are still tight in historical context, and defaults aren't rising. He expects stress to build in credit markets into 2027 and possibly later, which would create an attractive opportunity. For now the firm is avoiding corporate credit.

  “We don't particularly like run of the mill fixed rate corporates, investment grade or high yield just because it's not cheap enough quite yet for it to get us interested.”at 17:37

US stock market outlook

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLC

  Market weakness is narrow; the index hinges on a few megacaps that could drag it lower.

  Carter points out that small caps, mid caps, the Russell 2000, transports and the Dow were all up while the S&P fell. He says this is because the S&P is so heavily weighted to a few big names. If those names stumble, as they have for a long time, the broader market stumbles. He also notes industrials are down nine of the past ten weeks, showing crosscurrents.

  “it was very isolated, the weakness. The S and P small cap index was up. The S and P four hundred mid cap was up... It is just because the S and P is so heavy in a few big names. And if those big names stumble and it's been this way for a long time, the market stumbles.”at 6:53

• Michael Cantopolis · Janus Henderson Investors

  Rotation into defensives is premature because the earnings cycle isn't rolling over yet.

  Cantopolis says investors are rotating from cyclical, high-valuation, concentrated areas into defensives such as health care, staples and utilities, because they think the Fed can bring down growth and inflation. He thinks that is premature. He doesn't think the earnings cycle is rolling over yet. He does note the market is for the first time saying the Fed may have to take away the punch bowl.

  “I think it's a little bit premature for that, quite frankly. I agree with Tim. I don't think the earnings cycle is quite rolling over yet”at 15:13

US rates & the Fed

• Michael Cantopolis · Janus Henderson Investors

  The Fed should hike 50 basis points to fight inflation but will probably hold.

  Cantopolis says he is not certain the Fed will move. He thinks it absolutely should, and would hike 50 basis points if it did what is really needed. He thinks it probably won't go at all, which is largely expected. He cites high inflation, imported inflation, nominal GDP at 6 to 8%, and very low unemployment as the reasons the Fed should tighten.

  “I think they absolutely should move. If they do what's really needed, they would hike 50 basis points in my view, but they probably won't go at all.”at 15:42

• Bonawyn Eisen · CNBC

  Wants firmer Fed language; can't pledge price stability while staying noncommittal on hikes.

  Eisen would like firmer language from the Fed that gives a firm path and direction. She accepts that a deviation from market expectations could bring volatility. But she says the Fed can't say it will restore price stability while being noncommittal about rate hikes, and she wants that reconciled.

  “For one, you can't come out and say we will restore price stability while being a bit noncommittal about rate hikes.”at 19:55

US growth & recession risk

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Stagflation is a live debate: growth is still rising while prices and rates tighten conditions.

  Tim says marginal GDP growth is still giving an uplift, seen in banks and in loan growth. But credit markets are tapping the brakes, and higher inflation and rates are tightening financial conditions, doing the Fed's job. He says the debate is whether the economy is slowing, and he is not saying there is a recession. Without growth, though, higher prices would mean stagflation.

  “we're actually seeing this uplift, and we are hearing it from banks. And we are starting to see some of it in the loan growth.”at 8:00

US inflation

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Price pressure is broad, and rate hikes won't cure diesel, food or health care costs.

  Tim argues higher prices are visible everywhere. Diesel stays high whether the Fed hikes or not, because the only cure is more diesel refined. Food and commodity prices are high, shipping costs feed through to food, health care costs are rising, and so are real estate taxes. He says this is a problem regardless of Fed policy.

  “diesel prices are gonna remain high if the Fed hikes or doesn't hike. ... the only thing that will cure diesel prices is more diesel being refined. And food prices are high.”at 10:17

AI chips & semiconductors

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLC

  Stay away from semis; they are following gold's pattern of steep run, epic giveback, weak bounce.

  Carter says the group has been pushed steeply higher over one to three years with a lot of money flowing in. He compares it to precious metals and gold, which saw an epic giveback, then a small bounce, then rolled over again. He says that pattern means semis won't recover quickly, so he would not be involved. He sees some idiosyncratic weak tech names starting to bottom, but not semis.

  “It's a stay away from me... you get an epic, equally epic giveback. Think of precious metals, gold, think of semis. And then you get a little bit of a bounce... It doesn't recover quickly. I don't like it.”at 12:22

US Treasuries & yields

• Michael Cantopolis · Janus Henderson Investors

  The 10-year yield should creep higher toward 5.25%-5.5% if the Fed holds next week.

  Cantopolis expects the Fed to hold next week, which is largely expected. He thinks the knee-jerk reaction will be some relief, and maybe a few basis points lower on the 10-year. Then the bond vigilantes will come out, saying the Fed is skipping a meeting despite high inflation, importing inflation, nominal GDP at 6 to 8%, and near-record-low employment. He expects the 10-year to creep higher over the coming days.

  “I do think we will start to creep higher on the ten year again. I think we could easily approach five and a quarter, if not five fifty.”at 15:58

Middle East & Iran

• Eamon Javers · CNBC

  Renewed US-Israel hostilities with Iran look likely soon; timing relative to midterms unclear.

  Javers reports that escalatory rhetoric and preparatory steps in the region, plus aggressive comments from all sides, have led Washington insiders to suspect hostilities could resume. The president has said he doesn't intend to attack before the midterms but has hedged. Javers says the question is whether it happens before or after the midterms, with the Iran situation needing resolution before any Cuba action.

  “comments from all sides leading a lot of Washington insiders to really suspect that we could see a restoration of hostilities between The United States and Israel and Iran at some point soon.”at 33:21

Enterprise AI adoption & AI software

• Vadim Solove · DoiT

  Most enterprises cannot measure returns on AI investments, and spending will soon need justification.

  Solove's survey of over 500 North American enterprise CFOs found that fewer than 15% could measure the return on their AI investments. Companies have spent tens of millions, hundreds of millions and sometimes billions on AI, and he says they are dangerously close to needing to judge whether that spending makes sense. AI features are often built into existing products without extra charge, which makes the return hard to isolate, and many companies cannot say whether AI gives them an edge over competitors.

  “Very recently, we surveyed over 500 enterprise CFOs in North America, and less than 15% actually could even measure the return that they're getting on the AI investments.”at 38:40

Open-source AI models

• Vadim Solove · DoiT

  Open-weight models now carry about 48% of enterprise token usage, up from under 2% six months ago.

  Solove's company surveyed over 4,500 North American companies. Six months ago, open-weight or open-source models made up less than 2% of usage. Today they make up 48% of tokens, measured by usage rather than dollars, so nearly half of enterprise token consumption goes to open-source models. He says the leading open-source models are only about four months behind the frontier labs, OpenAI and Anthropic among them.

  “six months ago, the share of open weight or open source models was less than 2%. Today, it's 48%.”at 40:22

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLC

  AI-themed ETFs are slumping, so bulls must now defend buying with the burden of proof shifted.

  Worth says the AI-titled ETFs all share the same chart, a strong run followed by a collapse, and they are now slumping. Because AI was a very bullish area of the market, the burden of proof has shifted. Anyone who remains bullish or is buying more now has to defend that judgment.

  “It's the burden of proof has shifted... anyone who remains bullish or is buying more has to defend that judgment.”at 44:28