Anthropic’s long-awaited IPO filing... And next Fed decision on deck 10/26/26

JetBlue Airways

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 0 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Guy Adami · CNBCBullish

  Short squeeze likely despite awful fundamentals; shares could trade in the high $3s to low $4s.

  Short interest is about 30% of the float, roughly three days of trading volume by his estimate. The earnings reaction is a classic sell-the-news move, and shorts are likely to cover on the back of it. The fundamentals are awful, but the trade should work for a while, and the stock can trade in the high threes to low fours at some point. The stock is at an all-time low.

  “which means this is a classic sell the news, and then shorts are going to cover on the back of this. The fundamentals are awful, but the trade is going to work here for a while.”at 41:55

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBearish

  JetBlue must reorganize; its debt load and weak profitability cannot be grown away.

  JetBlue has the same problems airlines have repeatedly shown. Fuel costs are a recent shock, but the company's underlying issue is its debt load and profitability. It will have to reorganize, because it is not clear how it can grow its way out of the debt pile and profitability troubles.

  “this is a company that's gonna have to reorganize. Right? Like, don't know how you kinda grow your way out of that debt pile and the troubles you're having from a profitability standpoint.”at 42:13

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementBearish

  JetBlue is hit harder than peers due to the weakest airline balance sheet; debt concerns are a warning.

  JetBlue is getting hit harder than the other airlines because it arguably has the weakest balance sheet in the sector. When a stock is falling on debt concerns, investors should be more cautious. The backdrop of Middle East tensions and high oil prices adds pressure.

  “They're getting hit harder than the other airlines because they have, arguably the weakest balance sheet of the airline. So I think when you're coming into this and you're having all these tensions in The Middle East, oil prices are high.”at 42:27

• Katie Stockton · Fairlead StrategiesBearish

  JetBlue broke down technically; wait for momentum to improve rather than catch the falling knife.

  JetBlue stock has broken down technically. Countertrend traders can find signals on the daily and monthly charts that suggest the selloff is overdone. But momentum has not improved yet, so waiting is the better choice to avoid catching a falling knife.

  “Right now, I'd I'd wait for momentum to improve just as not to catch the falling knife.”at 42:54

Anthropic

Across the shows: 57 speakers in other episodes, 46 bullish and 39 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBearish

  Anthropic's roughly $2 trillion IPO pricing looks stretched; he would not buy the IPO soon.

  Nathan lays out a rapid private-round markup: $30B raised at $380B in February, then another $5-6B at about $956B in May, now pricing a $2T IPO. He calls this a sign the company may be ahead of itself. He asks who the incremental buyer is, since the large mutual fund complexes already own it and participated in earlier rounds. He warns that if it opens near $2T, gravity applies, as with SpaceX. He says the business may be strong, but that is not yet proven and is being underwritten now, so buying on the IPO does not look interesting to him anytime soon.

  “In February, they raised 30,000,000,000 at 380,000,000,000, and then in May, they raised another 5 or six, I think, at 956,000,000,000, and they're pricing a $2,000,000,000,000 IPO. And if you're looking for signs that things have gotten a little maybe ahead of themselves, this is it.”at 7:17

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementBearish

  Revenue slowdown at Anthropic and OpenAI should concern investors more than their losses.

  Garcia says the slowdown in revenue growth is more worrying than the large losses at OpenAI and Anthropic. Growth reportedly fell from about 140% to about 45%. She says excitement about Anthropic's IPO as the first pure-play AI company will likely be priced in quickly, so the growth slowdown is what matters.

  “it's the slowdown in revenue that I think should concern people significantly, in both OpenAI and Anthropic.”at 9:22

• Willie Lee · Neostellar CapitalBullish

  Anthropic's IPO is critical to prove public demand and ease capital-raising concerns.

  Lee says the IPO is critical because going public and showing public-market demand would quell many concerns about the company's ability to fund its spending. He notes private markets are happy to fund these investments, and secondary trading shows demand for OpenAI and Anthropic. The IPO is the step that ensures capital keeps flowing.

  “So I think the IPO is critical, right? For them, being able to go public and showing that there is public markets demands would I think quell a lot of these concerns that folks are having.”at 16:27

Costco Wholesale

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Katie Stockton · Fairlead StrategiesBullish

  Costco's breakout above the 200-day sets up gains toward $10.78 into the November seasonal window.

  The monthly cloud model shows a secular bull trend, and momentum has improved after a neutral range. Neutral ranges that resolve to the upside can lead to major gains. The weekly chart shows a breakout after the 200-day moving average was cleared. The next resistance is about $10.78. Above that, a breakout from the range could reach an objective about 25 above current levels. Costco has been up in November 17 years in a row, and the positive seasonality adds support, as do peers like Macy's, Ulta Beauty, Estee Lauder and Starbucks.

  “Now that we have this breakout, we have upside to the next resistance, which is about ten seventy eight on the chart.”at 44:37

• Guy Adami · CNBCUncertain

  Costco's valuation at 43 times earnings is expensive and fundamentals are difficult, despite the technicals.

  He agrees with Katie on the technicals. But Costco trades at 43 times earnings, which he considers expensive. The average analyst price target is about $10.75, which was a prior all-time high, so the stock is deep into the pool of prior highs. The fundamentals are a little difficult.

  “43 times is expensive, number one. The average price target amongst analysts is Katie's level, $10.75, which was a prior all time high. So deep into the pool stuff here.”at 45:24

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementBullish

  Costco benefits from value-seeking shoppers and a resilient higher-income consumer ahead of the holidays.

  People are concerned about inflation, so they want value. At the same time, higher-income consumers are holding up better, and they still shop at Costco while frustrated with inflation. Going into the holidays, these trends should keep benefiting Costco. Its exposure also diversifies investors away from AI.

  “people are concerned about inflation, so they want value right now, but they also have a higher income consumer. So you have that consumer who is holding up better.”at 45:54

Tesla

Across the shows: 17 speakers in other episodes, 15 bullish and 17 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementNeutral

  Tesla's car business is improving, but its 207x forward multiple reflects SpaceX merger hopes.

  Garcia says Tesla's core car business is expected to grow after two years of decline, which she calls partly justifiable. However, Tesla has never traded like a car company. It trades at about 207 times forward earnings, largely because of a possible SpaceX merger that could move future revenue into SpaceX. She expects the stock to be priced accordingly if the deal happens.

  “I mean, their fundamental business always was their cars... Right? And they're actually expected to have growth after two years of decline. So I do think there is some of that that's justifiable.”at 30:50

• Katie Stockton · Fairlead StrategiesNeutral

  Tesla is not among the most attractive mega caps technically; it lacks a true breakout.

  Stockton says Tesla got through its 200-day moving average but has not really broken out, and a down trend line still applies. She prefers mega caps with long-term up trends and good momentum, and Tesla has neither. She would become interested only if it breaks out.

  “So I feel that among the mega caps, it's certainly not the most attractive from a technical perspective. We prefer long term up trends with good momentum. This has neither.”at 31:35

Microsoft

Across the shows: 13 speakers in other episodes, 11 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBullish

  Microsoft's 60,000-employee buyout shows it will win enterprise AI and do more with fewer staff.

  Nathan calls the buyout offer to about a quarter of the workforce the most important news for the AI trade. He reads it as Microsoft defending free cash flow while rivals spend freely. He argues Microsoft is a winner in enterprise AI, already showing it through Copilot in Office 365, and can run more efficiently internally with fewer employees. He says Microsoft is in a very different position from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google.

  “Here's a company that is trying to defend their free cash flow when they have seen a lot of their major competitors willing to give it up for the time being... they're going to be a winner in enterprise AI and they're basically demonstrating that right now”at 4:06

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 38 speakers in other episodes, 33 bullish and 12 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Katie Stockton · Fairlead StrategiesBullish

  NVIDIA is at support and should respond, though the setup is treacherous.

  Stockton says NVIDIA and the AIQ ETF are both right on support and need to respond to short-term oversold conditions. Her view is that they will respond as they reach support, but the setup is somewhat treacherous. She treats the AI complex as the next trade, so chip-stock support matters for the broader AI trade.

  “NVIDIA is right on support. ... So we do think they will as they come into the support levels, but it is somewhat treacherous.”at 5:19

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 46 speakers in other episodes, 43 bullish and 22 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Katie Stockton · Fairlead StrategiesBullish

  Meta is holding 200-day support; a bounce could give upside toward $800 resistance.

  Stockton says Meta has come into support at its 200-day moving average and the gap from the post-Muse move. She expects it to respond. Meta is a partial retracement of a strong breakout, and long-term resistance sits near $800. If it holds this support, she sees good upside.

  “long term resistance up around 800 is the first resistance level. So if it can catch a little bit here near support, which it should do, then that's good upside.”at 6:12

Amazon.com

Across the shows: 18 speakers in other episodes, 14 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementBullish

  Amazon benefits from Anthropic's IPO as a large investor and from cloud compute demand.

  Garcia names Amazon and Alphabet as secondary beneficiaries of the Anthropic deal. Both are large Anthropic investors and will get a bump if the IPO goes well. They also benefit later, as Anthropic's cloud compute spending flows to them. She suggests investors look at these angles because the pure-play exposure may already be priced in.

  “Amazon and Alphabet who are large investors of Anthropic and will get a bump from that if it does IPO positively”at 9:39

Alphabet

Across the shows: 14 speakers in other episodes, 12 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementBullish

  Alphabet benefits from Anthropic's IPO as a large investor and from cloud compute demand.

  Garcia names Alphabet, alongside Amazon, as a secondary beneficiary of Anthropic's IPO. Alphabet is a large Anthropic investor and will get a bump if the listing goes well. It also benefits as Anthropic's cloud compute demand comes through. She argues investors can benefit from the AI trade through these holders even without owning Anthropic directly.

  “Amazon and Alphabet who are large investors of Anthropic and will get a bump from that if it does IPO positively”at 9:39

TensorWave

• Willie Lee · Neostellar CapitalBullish

  TensorWave is a critical AI infrastructure bet as inference diversifies beyond NVIDIA chips.

  Lee says his firm is invested in TensorWave as a critical AI infrastructure piece. He argues AI infrastructure is not just NVIDIA chips, and chip use is diversifying across encoding and decoding workloads. He sees large capital flowing to the chip side that investors are not yet recognizing, because the inference layer is critical to making AI efficient.

  “So AI infrastructure, which we believe is extremely helpful, not just NVIDIA chips. We've seen this diversification across chips, whether it's for encoding or decoding.”at 18:22

ClickHouse

• Willie Lee · Neostellar CapitalBullish

  ClickHouse's real-time data infrastructure is critical as AI agents act in real time.

  Lee says his firm is invested in ClickHouse. He argues it is critical to the AI infrastructure trade because AI agents act effectively in real time. That requires databases and data infrastructure that can keep up. He says this has not been this relevant since around 2010.

  “ClickHouse, which is extremely important for the AI infrastructure trade, which is real time data or extremely quick data and doing that, efficiently and cheaply.”at 18:53

iShares MSCI Brazil ETF

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Brazil's EWZ selloff is overdone; the market is oversold and about 10% cheap.

  Seymour says the EWZ fell about 19% on volume about six times normal, a washout that closed about 5% above its low. He says the market was overdone and remains about 10% cheap versus pre-election levels, so the reaction is oversold. He also says Brazil could rerate significantly from the Bolsonaro rally, and the selloff was not a fundamental change.

  “I think there are reasons to believe that the market was overdone. And in fact, even now, they are probably 10% cheap to where they were before Bolsonaro surprised people with that round one victory. So oversold on the reaction is my view.”at 24:00

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Petrobras is a strong long: dollar revenue against depreciated real costs.

  Seymour says Petrobras, which was once a government piggyback, has become a dollar exporter in a depreciated-currency environment. It collects revenue in dollars but pays costs in reais, a strong setup. He calls it one of the best oil-space trades for a couple of years and says he is long.

  “It's now a dollar exporter in a depreciated cost environment. So collecting in dollars, but costs in real, that's a pretty good story. Let's be clear. I'm long Petrobras.”at 24:58

Nu Holdings

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Nubank is a strong long; its digital bank across Latin America will sort out the selloff.

  Seymour says he is long Nubank, a digital bank running throughout Latin America. While local-economy cyclicals were hit by the election selloff, he argues investors will sort out what is what and separate Nubank's digital franchise from the local macro risk.

  “I'm long [Nubank]... Bank like [Nubank], though, it's a digital bank that's running throughout Latin America, and I think people will sort through what's what.”at 25:09

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Guy Adami · CNBCBearish

  Bond rally is a countertrend bounce; TLT may reach 84.5 as yields rise again later this year.

  The recent drop in yields is a countertrend bounce in the bond market, and bond prices are expected to keep deteriorating. TLT may fall toward 84.5, which is about 4.85% on the 10-year yield. The trajectory of yields is expected to keep moving higher at some point later this year.

  “this is a countertrend bounce in the bond market, lowering yields against the market that I think is going to continue to deteriorate.”at 38:04

Delta Air Lines

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementBullish

  Delta is a higher-quality airline to own than weaker-balance-sheet peers amid high oil prices.

  With Middle East tensions and high oil prices, investors should prefer higher-quality airlines. Delta is the example, in contrast to weaker-balance-sheet carriers like JetBlue.

  “I think you want to be in the higher quality names like a Delta, for example.”at 42:27

The Goldman Sachs Group

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Katie Stockton · Fairlead StrategiesBullish

  Goldman Sachs benefits from M&A activity involving Anthropic.

  She sees Goldman Sachs as a beneficiary of the M&A activity involving Anthropic. The transcript is garbled and gives little further support.

  “Goldman Sachs, you're talking about some m and a activity here with Anthropic. I think this is a beneficiary there.”at 46:30

The Estée Lauder Companies

• Katie Stockton · Fairlead StrategiesBullish

  Estee Lauder is a final-trade pick with positive holiday seasonality and a long-term base.

  Estee Lauder has positive holiday seasonality and a long-term base. It is one of the consumer names with strong performance in November, in line with her seasonal view for retail.

  “I'm gonna go with Estee Lauder. It does have positive holiday seasonals and a long term base.”at 46:30

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Guy Adami · CNBC

  Market now penalizes hyperscalers raising debt for AI spending, making this week's hyperscaler earnings treacherous.

  Meta's announced $95B stock sale to fund its AI build-out followed the debt-raise pattern. Adami says the market has shifted from rewarding companies that tap debt markets to penalizing them, so investors are scrutinizing hyperscalers more critically. He concludes the setup for hyperscaler earnings this week is extremely tricky, while noting a Meta gap fill near $630 suggests support.

  “I think the market is now penalizing companies that are sort of tapping into the debt markets, and there was a period of time where that was viewed as favorably. We're not in that period of time now.”at 2:23

• Subadra Rajappa · Societe Generale

  A slowdown in AI capex after the midterms could hurt growth, since capex drives growth and inflation now.

  Hyperscalers are not very interest-rate sensitive, so higher rates matter less for them than for some other investors. The big tech names coming to market are largely agnostic to the level of rates. The outcome depends on the post-midterm period: if there is a retrenchment and pushback on data centers, there may be less AI capex next year. A slowdown in that investment could hurt growth, because much of current growth comes from capex spending. AI-related spending is also feeding inflation, so a change in the capex cycle would change both growth and inflation.

  “If there's a slowdown in that investment, that could have an impact on growth because a lot of the growth that we're seeing right now is coming from some of the CapEx spending.”at 36:22

US rates & the Fed

• Subadra Rajappa · Societe Generale

  Expects the Fed to hold in October, then hike in December and March as inflation persists.

  Rajappa expects no move at the October meeting, which she calls a placeholder meeting where caution prevails until the midterm elections. She expects hikes in December and March. Inflation is a problem, and core PCE on Thursday could change the narrative. The key for Wednesday's FOMC is how Powell's successor characterises inflation and how committed he is to continuing to hike.

  “We're expecting a hike at the December meeting and another in March.”at 33:26

• Subadra Rajappa · Societe Generale

  Fed is reversing last year's three cuts, so hikes will be less aggressive than 2022-23, maybe about three.

  Chair Warsh has been consistently hawkish and committed to returning inflation to 2%, while the rest of the committee, including Williams and Jefferson, has leaned dovish. The Fed is trying to reverse the three cuts delivered last year. That means it will not go back to hiking as aggressively as in 2022 and 2023. The expected path is maybe three hikes, with the market's reaction assessed before deciding what comes next.

  “What I think the Fed is trying to do is reverse the cuts that were delivered last year. So I don't see them going back to, hiking as aggressively as they did back in 2022, 2023.”at 37:33

US Treasuries & yields

• Subadra Rajappa · Societe Generale

  A roughly 5% 10-year yield is a decent, safe-haven yield worth holding as an investment.

  Asked whether 5% is an investment or a trade, Rajappa says it could be an investment. She notes AI-related jitters and concerns about some credit names, while investment-grade spreads remain relatively tight and investors like quality names. A 5% 10-year yield is pretty decent, and investors want a safe-haven asset that has value.

  “But 5% [10-year] yields is a pretty decent yield. Right? So you want a safe haven asset that has value.”at 35:11

• Katie Stockton · Fairlead Strategies

  10-year yield is sideways on lost upside momentum, though long-term trend points to a break above 5.25%.

  Rates look neutral right now and are moving sideways rather than up or down. The uptrend has lost upside momentum, but long-term momentum still supports higher highs and higher lows. That makes the case for the 10-year yield to exceed 5.25% at a certain point. For now, momentum is neutral.

  “So I know usually we say up or down, but they look sideways just because we have a loss of upside momentum within that uptrend.”at 38:53

AI pricing & unit economics

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal Media

  AI model price war will push costs toward zero; value will accrue to applications, not model labs.

  Each new Anthropic model is marketed as cheaper, and Nathan says OpenAI and Anthropic are in a real price war. The hope is that cheaper tokens drive more usage, and so far the data suggests usage is rising enough to offset lower prices. He is not sure OpenAI and Anthropic will capture the value. He thinks value will be created in applications built on top of the models, and that businesses deploying AI are happy to see costs fall.

  “As the cost of the models come down and they are in a price war, make no mistake about it, between OpenAI... I'm not so sure it's OpenAI and Anthropic.”at 13:33

Enterprise AI adoption & AI software

• Willie Lee · Neostellar Capital

  Coding agents drove AI's breakout; personal agents and cybersecurity are the next value pools.

  Lee says Anthropic has shown the revenue potential of coding agents, which drove the breakout growth this year. He points to other areas where AI is unlocking large value, including personal agents, cybersecurity, and research. He says these are the next areas where companies are trying to work out AI's potential and how much value they can capture.

  “I think the main piece that Anthropic has really shown is the potential for revenue opportunity within coding agents.”at 15:27

Sports, betting & prediction markets

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal Media

  Election prediction markets can sway opinion; midterm race betting has tripled 2024 levels.

  Nathan says midterm betting on these platforms for congressional races has already tripled 2024 levels. Although the dollar amounts are small, tens of millions rather than billions, the odds can be quoted across news outlets and change hearts and minds. He sees risk that people with self-interest in an election can exploit that influence, which was not a concern a couple of decades ago.

  “has tripled the twenty twenty four level for congressional races already.”at 26:26

Credit markets

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  Bonds and municipals look attractive after the rate move; clients are rebalancing into them.

  Investors have disliked bonds because prices fell as rates rose. But new bonds are a great opportunity after the recent move in rates, and the last month has offered a good entry point. Her firm is advising clients to rebalance into bonds and take losses in municipal bonds, because municipals still look attractive. She expects the Fed is very unlikely to cut next month and very likely to cut or hike by the end of the year.

  “Actually, kind of the opposite. I think people have been hating bonds... But yes, new bonds, a great opportunity, and especially if we have seen a lot of the move in rates, that has been your good opportunity to do this is the last month or so.”at 38:26