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Gene Munster: latest market views

Deepwater Asset Management

Summary

Gene Munster is managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management and a longtime technology equity research analyst, known for covering Apple and big tech.

Chorus has 23 views from Gene Munster across 5 episodes on CNBC Fast Money and CNBC Closing Bell since October 20, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Amazon.com, NVIDIA, Meta Platforms and Tesla; bearish on Intel, Alphabet and Microsoft.

Where they stand

Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.

What they talk about most

The latest views

Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.

  • Amazon.comUncertain

    Personalized AI shopping bots will reshape commerce and likely hurt Amazon's business starting late 2027.

    Munster says personalized bots are nascent today and will become a larger part of the conversation. He expects them to start affecting Amazon's business late in 2027. Usage is fractional now, but he expects it to be widespread within a couple of years. People who use these bots say they have changed how they start their buying experience, which he argues affects both Google and Amazon. He also calls the narrative potentially a house of cards, since Amazon could adapt to bots.

    “these personalized bots are gonna become an increasingly part of the conversation. They're nascent today. Probably starts impacting their business late in 2027.”at 18:47

    CNBC Fast Money: Amazon and Intel Report Results… And Alphabet’s Post-Earnings Plunge 10/29/26 ·

  • Amazon.comBullish

    Amazon's two-year AWS growth guidance is the most bullish AI data point in months, a strong cloud endorsement.

    Munster calls the two-year AWS segment guidance an over-the-top endorsement of how management sees cloud playing out, which is unusual because companies normally guide one quarter at most. He links it to the backlog, to the capacity being built, and to Meta's plan to raise spending sharply next year. He argues the stock move hides the significance of the guidance, which should not be lost. He also says the AI capex needs funding but is well spent because demand is strong, and that equity would be his preferred way to raise it.

    “This is probably the most bullish data point in AI over the past three or six months of all the data points that we get.”at 19:22

    CNBC Fast Money: Amazon and Intel Report Results… And Alphabet’s Post-Earnings Plunge 10/29/26 ·

  • NVIDIABullish

    Amazon's AWS guidance is net positive for Nvidia despite Trainium competition.

    Munster says Amazon's Trainium training chip, which may be sold to outside customers from late 2027, is a well-funded competitor and is negative for Nvidia by any measure. However, the AWS growth guidance indicates strong demand for the capacity being built, and he argues that the bigger data point from the report is positive for Nvidia overall.

    “And so I think that, yes, it's negative, but I think the bigger data point tonight is positive for Nvidia.”at 22:19

    CNBC Fast Money: Amazon and Intel Report Results… And Alphabet’s Post-Earnings Plunge 10/29/26 ·

  • IntelBearish

    Intel's AI data center business is supply constrained, a negative data point for Intel.

    Intel said it will be supply constrained in its AI business, DCAI. The stock drifted another 4% lower on that comment. Munster sees this as a negative data point for Intel, with the sales likely going to Nvidia. He also agrees the PC outlook is weak. The supply constraint is good news for the broader AI trade, but it is a setback for Intel.

    “the Intel stock drifted another 4% lower on the comment that they're going to be supply constrained on their AI business, DCAI.”at 46:04

    CNBC Fast Money: Amazon and Intel Report Results… And Alphabet’s Post-Earnings Plunge 10/29/26 ·

  • Amazon.comUncertain

    Amazon's AWS capex is meaningful and a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity; Amazon now positions itself as an AI company.

    Amazon described its capex spend supporting AWS growth as meaningful. Management sees it as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Munster says there may be some impact from that spending. He concludes that Amazon has repositioned itself as an AI company and is telling investors to focus less on retail.

    “But Amazon did give some commentary about the CapEx spend to support this AWS growth. And they said that it will be meaningful. They see this as a once in a lifetime opportunity.”at 46:43

    CNBC Fast Money: Amazon and Intel Report Results… And Alphabet’s Post-Earnings Plunge 10/29/26 ·

  • AlphabetBearish

    Alphabet's search deceleration will likely worsen before it improves, with AI chatbots a growing threat.

    Search grew 12% against the Street's 15%, and guidance implies further deceleration to roughly 11%. That would be three consecutive quarters of slowing. He had been negative on Google search in early 2025 because generative AI could end the ten blue links, then changed course after the March quarter when search improved. He does not think personalized bots are hurting search yet. He does see their potential as significant, since Sundar said a unified interface is coming and Zuckerberg and Musk have talked up bots as a force. The downside is that these bots could become the starting point for commerce. He calls the stock reaction warranted because the issue is anxiety that won't resolve quickly, which he thinks is negative for the stock.

    “I think it is likely gonna get worse before it gets better.”at 17:49

    CNBC Fast Money: Alphabet Search Miss, Microsoft Azure Beat and Fed’s Hawkish Pause 10/28/26 ·

  • Consumer AI products

    Personalized AI bots could become the starting point of commerce, reshaping Google's position.

    Sundar said Google will soon unveil a unified interface with more personalized bots. Zuckerberg and Musk have also talked about these bots becoming a force. If they become the starting point for commerce for many people, that would affect Google's position. He does not think bots are hurting search yet, and he is unsure how Google will turn search traffic into a bot experience. But the potential is significant.

    “If that's the case, if these personalized bots, that will become, for a lot of people, the starting point of commerce, which impacts where Google is.”at 19:08

    CNBC Fast Money: Alphabet Search Miss, Microsoft Azure Beat and Fed’s Hawkish Pause 10/28/26 ·

  • Amazon.comBearish

    Amazon must navigate AI assistants that could absorb its one-stop shopping value proposition.

    If personalized bots become the starting point for shopping, Amazon's main value proposition, finding everything under one roof, could move into the bot. Amazon will have to navigate that shift. This is a mechanism-based risk rather than a call on near-term results.

    “Amazon's going to have to navigate it if in fact, the personalized bot becomes your starting point, then one of the value props of Amazon being able to find everything you want under one roof becomes everything you want within your bot.”at 21:07

    CNBC Fast Money: Alphabet Search Miss, Microsoft Azure Beat and Fed’s Hawkish Pause 10/28/26 ·

  • MicrosoftBearish

    Microsoft's 17% software growth is remarkable but not sustainable; it is not out of the woods.

    Microsoft's software business grew 14% in the June quarter and 17% in the just-reported September quarter, which Munster calls remarkable given that knowledge workers are 'on trial' from AI. Microsoft is offering voluntary early retirement to about a quarter of its workforce, which he reads as management seeing fewer seats needed for knowledge work. He concludes the growth is bucking the trend but does not believe it is sustainable and sees no evidence on the call that Microsoft is out of the woods.

    “I don't know if that's sustainable. I do not believe it's sustainable. I do not believe that they're out of the woods.”at 48:59

    CNBC Fast Money: Alphabet Search Miss, Microsoft Azure Beat and Fed’s Hawkish Pause 10/28/26 ·

  • TeslaBullish

    Tesla's FSD attach rate rising from 15% to 70% shows adoption is accelerating, though still nascent.

    Munster notes autonomy is about 1% of total ride-sharing miles. He cites Tesla's FSD attach rate rising from about 15% three years ago to about 70% today. He concludes that something bigger is going on, while acknowledging that the technology is still nascent. He treats this as part of the broader case that AI and physical AI are early and bigger than the market recognises.

    “The attach rate for FSD has gone from about fifteen percent three years ago to 70% today. Something bigger is going on, still nascent.”at 11:22

    CNBC Closing Bell: Closing Bell Overtime: Tech’s Rally Comes Undone 10/22/26 ·

  • AI: overall outlook

    AI is still early; the world will be reoriented around it beyond today's high expectations.

    Munster argues that if you believe the leaders are competent, you should conclude AI is still early. He says the change in the last week is personalised bots and agents using 10 to 15 times the token usage of a typical chatbot, plus physical AI. Those two developments are much bigger than anything in the last few years. He sees a massive gap between what companies say about how transformative AI will be and how early it is, and the market's willingness to accept that. He concludes the world will be reoriented around AI in ways that cannot be fully understood, beyond the high expectations held today. He says the stocks are ultimately great buys on this nervousness.

    “the world will be reoriented around AI in ways that we fully can't comprehend that are beyond what I think the high expectations are today.”at 12:39

    CNBC Closing Bell: Closing Bell Overtime: Tech’s Rally Comes Undone 10/22/26 ·

  • Meta PlatformsBullish

    Zuckerberg's conviction that Muse becomes central signals confidence; Meta is a buy on this sell-off.

    Munster notes Meta has about 10 million daily active users of Muse, and Zuckerberg is basing the company's foundation around it next year. He treats this as small today but likely to grow to billions of daily users. He reads Zuckerberg's claim that the company's centre of gravity will be Muse in a year as a sign of confidence, and says the statement would be a concern only in isolation. Other leaders, including Musk and Huang, are saying the same thing. He believes the market's nervousness about spending creates a buying opportunity.

    “something like the center of gravity of this company is gonna be Muse in a year. Like, I think that speaks to the level of confidence.”at 14:02

    CNBC Closing Bell: Closing Bell Overtime: Tech’s Rally Comes Undone 10/22/26 ·

  • AI infrastructure & data centers

    Hyperscaler capex growth will run well above Street estimates, at 70% or more next year.

    Munster says the Street expects about 38% capex growth next year, but he thinks the real number will probably be 70% or more. For calendar 2028, the Street is at 11% while he expects 25% to 40%. He ties this to Meta's commitment to Muse, Tesla's FSD, and Elon Musk's plan to add 10 gigawatts of compute next year. He thinks the stocks will probably do fine even with spending at that level.

    “next year, the street's looking for 38% growth in CapEx. The real number is gonna be probably 70% or greater.”at 14:39

    CNBC Closing Bell: Closing Bell Overtime: Tech’s Rally Comes Undone 10/22/26 ·

  • Meta PlatformsBullish

    Muse is Meta's future platform, with personal agents set to take over user engagement.

    Munster argues Muse is effectively the new platform. Personal agents will take a growing share of users' time, even as Instagram, Facebook and WhatsApp remain. Commerce is the main early use case, and Meta is better placed than retailers because it can sit across many shops, a Switzerland-like position that Amazon will not match. He estimates Muse has only about 10 million daily users versus roughly 3.6 billion people in the Meta family, which is small today. He still expects personal bots to reach multiple billions of users within three years and to change how companies approach commerce and marketing.

    “But make no mistake, Muse is the future of the company. ... Muse is effectively the new platform.”at 15:16

    CNBC Fast Money: Big Tech Earnings Filter In… And Coreweave’s Tangled Web 10/21/26 ·

  • Meta PlatformsUncertain

    Meta's 2027 capex will exceed $225B, above the Street's $196B, and investors may not care.

    Munster notes Meta did not give its calendar 2027 capex guide. The Street is at about $196 billion for next year. He expects Meta to raise that to above $225 billion when it reports in December. He adds that the build-out is not finished and that he does not think the Street will care much about the higher spend.

    “Street's at 196,000,000,000 for next year. I bet when they report December, they probably take it to above 225,000,000,000.”at 17:30

    CNBC Fast Money: Big Tech Earnings Filter In… And Coreweave’s Tangled Web 10/21/26 ·

  • Meta PlatformsBearish

    Meta will probably need to raise a lot of capital in the next few years to fund AI.

    Munster says that when Meta says it wants to be ready, that means it will probably need to raise capital. He points to the free cash flow burn and the rising capex as the drivers. If AI is still early, Meta will have to raise a large amount of capital over the next few years, and this ties back to whether investors believe in Muse.

    “Translation is they're probably going to have to raise capital. ... If we are as early as I still think we are, they're going have to raise a lot of capital in the next few years.”at 19:53

    CNBC Fast Money: Big Tech Earnings Filter In… And Coreweave’s Tangled Web 10/21/26 ·

  • TeslaBullish

    Tesla's 5M-vehicle ambition implies about 25% annual growth, signaling the EV winter is ending.

    Musk pointed to about 5 million vehicles in the 2030s. Gene notes that deliveries of about 2 million this year would imply roughly 25% growth for each of the next four years. Vehicle volume has been flattish for the past couple of years, so he reads the target as the EV winter ending, with FSD becoming a bigger part of the purchase case. He calls the statement very bullish, though he says the market shrugs it off.

    “That implies 25% growth for each of the next four years. It's been flattish for the past couple of years. That means that the EV winter is ending.”at 38:22

    CNBC Fast Money: Big Tech Earnings Filter In… And Coreweave’s Tangled Web 10/21/26 ·

  • TeslaBullish

    Tesla's FSD growth marks an inflection point and is bad news for traditional auto.

    Tesla's FSD miles driven rose about 190% year over year in the September quarter, versus about 190% in June and 125% in March, which he calls an inflection point. As FSD becomes a bigger part of the consideration when people pick their next car, that is bad news for traditional automakers. He also says the market is shrugging off otherwise very bullish comments, and that the fundamentals (margins, FSD, vehicle outlook) are going very well at Tesla.

    “This is an inflection point that's going on. FSD is going to become a bigger part of the conversation when people start thinking about what car is next. That's bad news for traditional auto.”at 39:34

    CNBC Fast Money: Big Tech Earnings Filter In… And Coreweave’s Tangled Web 10/21/26 ·

  • TeslaUncertain

    Gene puts a 95% chance a Tesla-SpaceX combination happens within two years.

    Musk addressed the Tesla-SpaceX merger the night before and said he would not discuss it further on the call. Gene reads that as a signal that a combination is coming, and puts the odds of something happening within two years at 95%. He says investors are struggling to figure out how to value Tesla against that outcome, which is why the stock is not reacting to the fundamentals.

    “I would put a 95% chance something happens in the next two years.”at 40:22

    CNBC Fast Money: Big Tech Earnings Filter In… And Coreweave’s Tangled Web 10/21/26 ·

  • TeslaNeutral

    Tesla's capex cut reflects manufacturing and Optimus, not AI data centers; not worth over-reading.

    Tesla trimmed its capex guidance to about $20 billion from $25 billion, which is unusual for a growth company and likely part of why the stock fell. Gene argues the comparison to AI capex is misleading: hyperscalers and SpaceX spend mostly on AI data center infrastructure, while most of Tesla's capex goes to manufacturing and Optimus robots. He says not to read too much into the cut, and speculates that a combined Tesla-SpaceX capex view could be a factor later.

    “The majority of Tesla's capex is related to, there is some of that, but it's also related to manufacturing and... the Optimus robots, for example. And so I wouldn't read too much into it.”at 45:40

    CNBC Fast Money: Big Tech Earnings Filter In… And Coreweave’s Tangled Web 10/21/26 ·

  • TeslaBullish

    The Tesla-SpaceX combination is likely to win overwhelming shareholder approval and is strategically compelling.

    Musk said twice that a combination is a good idea, and the two special committees mean the probability of a deal has inched up. Because approval is a shareholder vote rather than a structural hurdle, Munster calls it a slam dunk. SpaceX is a vertically integrated AI company, from chips and models to launch and orbital data centers, but it lacks a terrestrial physical-AI business. Tesla fills that gap through FSD and Optimus, so the combined company would be highly unique and would reinforce Musk's AI narrative. He thinks investors should welcome the deal, while expecting SpaceX to pay little for Tesla given the price paid for xAI.

    “I think this will get overwhelming shareholder approval. I think people would really applaud this combination”at 28:52

    CNBC Fast Money: Netflix & SpaceX Report Results… And Next Move For Neoclouds 10/20/26 ·

  • Space Exploration TechnologiesBullish

    Musk's compute targets should be discounted, but the capacity ramp is still impressive versus hyperscalers.

    He says Musk's numbers need adjustment: the figure was 1.7 gigawatts at the end of the September quarter, and he is now guiding to 10. Even if the real number lands between 5 and 10, it is still a much bigger figure. Munster reads the same-day capex guidance of $35-40 billion, versus a Street estimate of $19 billion, as a sign investors believe the spending is well spent, which is why the stock rose. He concludes the number is still impressive relative to other hyperscalers.

    “I just take it with a grain of salt and kind of adjust it. And even with that adjustment, it's still an impressive number relative to what we're seeing from the other hyperscalers.”at 29:25

    CNBC Fast Money: Netflix & SpaceX Report Results… And Next Move For Neoclouds 10/20/26 ·

  • AI infrastructure & data centers

    Neocloud fears of demand peaking are overdone; compute demand is early and should rise for two years.

    He reads SpaceX's comments as positive for the neoclouds. The main overhang is investors' fear that demand is peaking, which the CoreWeave debt downgrade reflected. SpaceX's comments reaffirm that compute demand is early: personalized bots have about 15 million daily users and use 10-15x the compute of a chatbot, and physical AI has not started. He argues compute numbers can keep rising for the next two years, though not forever.

    “I think the biggest issue with Neo Clouds is this anxiety that investors have that we're near the end.”at 32:36

    CNBC Fast Money: Netflix & SpaceX Report Results… And Next Move For Neoclouds 10/20/26 ·

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