Big Tech Earnings Filter In… And Coreweave’s Tangled Web 10/21/26

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 24 speakers in other episodes, 21 bullish and 6 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Julia Boorstin · CNBCBullish

  Muse shopping use shows Meta moving beyond ads toward a transaction-cut revenue model.

  Boorstin notes Meta is establishing Muse as useful for shopping, with about 25% of Muse downloaders using it daily and users transacting around $200. She argues that if Meta offers Muse free and takes a cut of transactions, this would be a very different revenue stream from a company that has always been almost entirely advertising-based. She frames this as a potential long-term shift, with the evidence still early.

  “This is a company that has always been nearly entirely about advertising revenue. So taking a cut of transactions is really a different direction for Meta and for Mark Zuckerberg.”at 4:10

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBearish

  Muse monetization unproven and buying after the rally looks premature at these levels.

  Nathan says Meta has no clear sense of how Muse will be monetized. Ecommerce companies such as Amazon, travel firms and banks do not want AI agents coming in right now, which limits the commerce route. He recalls that Threads had large distribution but never caught on, so Meta's reach does not guarantee engagement. Given the big post-earnings move and the unclear monetization, he thinks it may be premature to buy Muse at these price levels.

  “So to me, I think that like Muse, if you're buying it right here for that after we had that big move, I think it might be a little bit premature, especially at these levels.”at 5:58

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBearish

  Meta's new share class means heavy dilution to fund AI spending, and Zuckerberg keeps control.

  Nathan argues the new non-voting class lets Meta raise money for the $140 billion build-out it guided to. Shareholders will be diluted, and Zuckerberg keeps his voting shares. He notes Meta is signaling it will have to raise a lot more cash. Google also raised $85 billion in equity, so this dilution will keep coming for shareholders even though cash flow has already deteriorated.

  “you get diluted and Mark Zuckerberg gets to keep his voting shares... they're signaling that they're gonna have to raise a lot more [cash].”at 6:27

• Guy Adami · CNBCBearish

  Meta turning free-cash-flow negative from AI spending could scare investors going forward.

  Adami notes that Meta's free cash flow is negative for the first time in about ten years. He acknowledges the cause is the AI spending, and that other companies have also gone through this period. He says the guidance and capex did not scare people this quarter, but this FCF swing could scare investors going forward. Valuation is fine, however.

  “This is what might scare people going forward though. For the first time now, I think in ten years, free cash flow negative for Facebook.”at 7:29

• Marta Norton · EmpowerBullish

  Meta's valuation is less stretched than other AI names, so she is not skeptical.

  Norton says the hyperscalers, including Meta, are not as expensive as some of the rest of the AI trade. She is therefore less skeptical of them even though the Muse monetization is still unproven and the Muse payoff is uncertain. She frames the AI build-out as a long-term play and recommends a long time horizon.

  “I don't think it's quite as expensive, the hyperscalers generally, as some of the rest of the AI trade. So I'm not as, I guess, skeptical of it.”at 7:52

• Karen Finerman · Metropolitan Capital AdvisorsBullish

  Meta's core ad business is strong, with ad pricing up sharply and growth back.

  Finerman points to ad prices paid in the US and Canada rising 23%, which she calls a significant move for a very large business. She says this shows Meta's advertising product is important and working, and that revenue growth is back. She also notes that capex increases this quarter were smaller than in the prior three or four quarters, so the market should give Meta a pass. She views the underlying business that funds the AI spend as a very good quarter, even though Muse monetization is still unclear.

  “I thought the growth in US and Canada, that advertising price, I mean, that... That's a really significant move already on a gigantic business.”at 8:18

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset ManagementBullish

  Muse is Meta's future platform, with personal agents set to take over user engagement.

  Munster argues Muse is effectively the new platform. Personal agents will take a growing share of users' time, even as Instagram, Facebook and WhatsApp remain. Commerce is the main early use case, and Meta is better placed than retailers because it can sit across many shops, a Switzerland-like position that Amazon will not match. He estimates Muse has only about 10 million daily users versus roughly 3.6 billion people in the Meta family, which is small today. He still expects personal bots to reach multiple billions of users within three years and to change how companies approach commerce and marketing.

  “But make no mistake, Muse is the future of the company. ... Muse is effectively the new platform.”at 15:16

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset ManagementUncertain

  Meta's 2027 capex will exceed $225B, above the Street's $196B, and investors may not care.

  Munster notes Meta did not give its calendar 2027 capex guide. The Street is at about $196 billion for next year. He expects Meta to raise that to above $225 billion when it reports in December. He adds that the build-out is not finished and that he does not think the Street will care much about the higher spend.

  “Street's at 196,000,000,000 for next year. I bet when they report December, they probably take it to above 225,000,000,000.”at 17:30

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset ManagementBearish

  Meta will probably need to raise a lot of capital in the next few years to fund AI.

  Munster says that when Meta says it wants to be ready, that means it will probably need to raise capital. He points to the free cash flow burn and the rising capex as the drivers. If AI is still early, Meta will have to raise a large amount of capital over the next few years, and this ties back to whether investors believe in Muse.

  “Translation is they're probably going to have to raise capital. ... If we are as early as I still think we are, they're going have to raise a lot of capital in the next few years.”at 19:53

Tesla

Across the shows: 10 speakers in other episodes, 8 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Guy Adami · CNBCBullish

  Tesla's auto margins are its best in years, but the stock is held back by the SpaceX merger math.

  Adami says Tesla's margins excluding regulatory credits are almost 19%, the best seen in a long time, and the business appears to be accelerating the right way. He thinks the stock is not trading in line with this because the market is working out how many SpaceX shares Tesla holders would receive in a potential merger. Since that outcome depends on Musk's decision, the stock is hard to value.

  “If you look at margins ex regulatory credits, almost 19 [%]. That's the best we've seen in a long time. So good for them.”at 13:52

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset ManagementBullish

  Tesla's 5M-vehicle ambition implies about 25% annual growth, signaling the EV winter is ending.

  Musk pointed to about 5 million vehicles in the 2030s. Gene notes that deliveries of about 2 million this year would imply roughly 25% growth for each of the next four years. Vehicle volume has been flattish for the past couple of years, so he reads the target as the EV winter ending, with FSD becoming a bigger part of the purchase case. He calls the statement very bullish, though he says the market shrugs it off.

  “That implies 25% growth for each of the next four years. It's been flattish for the past couple of years. That means that the EV winter is ending.”at 38:22

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset ManagementBullish

  Tesla's FSD growth marks an inflection point and is bad news for traditional auto.

  Tesla's FSD miles driven rose about 190% year over year in the September quarter, versus about 190% in June and 125% in March, which he calls an inflection point. As FSD becomes a bigger part of the consideration when people pick their next car, that is bad news for traditional automakers. He also says the market is shrugging off otherwise very bullish comments, and that the fundamentals (margins, FSD, vehicle outlook) are going very well at Tesla.

  “This is an inflection point that's going on. FSD is going to become a bigger part of the conversation when people start thinking about what car is next. That's bad news for traditional auto.”at 39:34

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset ManagementUncertain

  Gene puts a 95% chance a Tesla-SpaceX combination happens within two years.

  Musk addressed the Tesla-SpaceX merger the night before and said he would not discuss it further on the call. Gene reads that as a signal that a combination is coming, and puts the odds of something happening within two years at 95%. He says investors are struggling to figure out how to value Tesla against that outcome, which is why the stock is not reacting to the fundamentals.

  “I would put a 95% chance something happens in the next two years.”at 40:22

• Guy Adami · CNBCBullish

  Tesla's just-reported quarter is its best in a couple of years on the metrics.

  Guy says that, given all the metrics, this is the best quarter Tesla has put up in the last couple of years. He notes the stock was already up 8 to 10% before the SpaceX news, which he says was not the market valuing Tesla against SpaceX. The strength of the report is his basis for a positive view.

  “This is the best quarter they put up, I think, in the last couple years, in my opinion, given all the metrics.”at 41:02

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset ManagementNeutral

  Tesla's capex cut reflects manufacturing and Optimus, not AI data centers; not worth over-reading.

  Tesla trimmed its capex guidance to about $20 billion from $25 billion, which is unusual for a growth company and likely part of why the stock fell. Gene argues the comparison to AI capex is misleading: hyperscalers and SpaceX spend mostly on AI data center infrastructure, while most of Tesla's capex goes to manufacturing and Optimus robots. He says not to read too much into the cut, and speculates that a combined Tesla-SpaceX capex view could be a factor later.

  “The majority of Tesla's capex is related to, there is some of that, but it's also related to manufacturing and... the Optimus robots, for example. And so I wouldn't read too much into it.”at 45:40

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 32 speakers in other episodes, 7 bullish and 24 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Marta Norton · EmpowerBearish

  She would not want to own CoreWeave's neocloud business for the long term, despite credit protections.

  Norton says the credit team was not overly concerned, because lenders have layers of protection when they buy CoreWeave's debt. She still thinks about the businesses she wants to own in the long run, and does not particularly want to own a neocloud business. She suggests this is part of why investors are weighing on the stock despite its high-profile backers.

  “...was talking with our credit team earlier this week... They didn't seem overly concerned about it, but I guess if I'm thinking long term about the kinds of businesses that I wanna own, I don't particularly wanna own a [neocloud] business.”at 33:49

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBearish

  If CoreWeave-type neoclouds reach scale, customer concentration and hyperscaler overflow demand is a risk.

  Nathan says Musk's guidance of 10 gigawatts of compute by the end of 2027 is unlikely, since SpaceX may have only one gigawatt now. He argues that if SpaceX reached three or four gigawatts, that would be very negative for neoclouds. These companies have heavy customer concentration and are absorbing excess demand from major hyperscalers, so a self-built buildout would cut into that. He notes buyers are still present at $60, but some top shareholders may be reducing positions.

  “They maybe have one right now... if they were ever to achieve, let's say, three or four gigawatts, that might be really negative for these companies that again have a lot of customer concentration.”at 34:33

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaUncertain

  CoreWeave's GPU-backed debt and customer concentration risk distress with wider ripple effects.

  CoreWeave is absorbing excess demand from the major hyperscalers, which leaves it heavily exposed to customer concentration. Much of its debt is secured by GPUs, but Dan says it is unclear how that will turn out. Nvidia is the top shareholder at about 10.5% and is not expected to sell soon. He does not want the stock to move into further distressed territory, because the resulting ripple effects would reach assets that people consider very safe in the space.

  “I don't think any of us want to see this thing get into further distressed territory because make no mistake about it, there would be ripple effects across all the things that you think are very safe in the space.”at 35:26

• Guy Adami · CNBCBullish

  Expects a tradable CoreWeave bounce, though the stock has stalled at mid-July levels.

  Volume suggests a bounce should happen, and Guy still expects one. He argues it should already have happened after the Goldman upgrade. The stock has instead fallen back to levels seen in mid-July and at other points this year, which he calls disappointing. He describes the shares as basically frozen for now.

  “I still think there's a tradable bounce coming, but it should have happened on the back of the Goldman upgrade.”at 35:53

• Karen Finerman · Metropolitan Capital AdvisorsBearish

  CoreWeave's bonds yielding near 15% make placing its future debt concerning.

  CoreWeave's 9 5/8% notes due 2032 briefly traded below 80 but have stalled around 80.5, which is not much of a bounce. At that price the yield is approaching 15%. Karen says that is worrying because CoreWeave still needs to place other debt, and a yield that high makes that financing harder and more expensive.

  “So the yield is now approaching 15%. ... So when you think about other debt that needs to get placed, you know, that's concerning.”at 36:45

International Business Machines

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Guy Adami · CNBCBullish

  IBM can keep rallying from here given positive free cash flow and okay margins.

  Adami says IBM is still generating positive free cash flow and its margins are okay. He notes that the stock has rallied a lot off recent lows and that he sees more room to run. He cites the earlier penalty after last quarter's miss and deal delays. The deals came back this quarter, with software and infrastructure revenue beating expectations, so he sees the stock's upside from here.

  “Free cash flow is still positive, so they're doing something like clearly... and margins are okay... I still think this stock sort of can rally from here for sure.”at 25:32

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBearish

  IBM is one of the least interesting ways to play enterprise AI uptake right now.

  Nathan says IBM's guidance was not raised even though the deals came back, and he suspects the company is being conservative. He says IBM is one of the least interesting ways to express views on companies deploying AI for customers. Enterprise uptake may be the right place to look, but IBM did not beat the low bar set three months ago in any meaningful way. He thinks software is an area to be selective in.

  “I mean, so this is uninspiring, and I think that if you're looking ways to express, you know, views as it relates to what companies are utilizing AI or what companies are kind of deploying it for their customers, this is probably one of the most least interesting ones.”at 26:19

• Marta Norton · EmpowerUncertain

  IBM's enterprise AI payoff is unproven; she needs faith in management's vision.

  Norton says that deploying AI effectively in enterprises takes a great deal of vision, so investors need significant faith in management. She says the jury is still out on IBM for that reason. Software is an area that got crushed earlier this year, but she thinks it requires careful selection.

  “it takes a lot of vision to deploy AI in a... in an effective way. And so I guess the jury's out to me on IBM on that.”at 27:11

Chipotle Mexican Grill

• Marta Norton · EmpowerBearish

  Chipotle is lagging as a pricier fast-food name in a consumer that is weaker than spending implies.

  Norton says restaurant performance has become bifurcated this year. Affordable sit-down restaurants are doing well, while Chipotle is more expensive for a fast-food brand and is not doing as well. She sees this as reflecting a consumer that is less strong than retail spending data suggests, which traces back to wages and inflation. Chipotle's price increases could help longer term, but the consumer is in a tricky spot.

  “I think when you look at some of these more affordable sit down restaurants, they're doing great. Some of these other companies, I would consider Chipotle a bit more expensive on the fast food front, and it's not doing as well.”at 29:53

• Guy Adami · CNBCBearish

  Chipotle has shown eight or nine quarters of slowing growth, which is a problem.

  Adami says Chipotle has been slowing for the last eight or nine quarters, which is a problem. He thinks the quarter is setting up for another disappointment, and the analyst downgrades a week ahead of earnings suggest a defensive move. Chipotle is raising prices in about 8% to 9% of its stores every month, which may not be accepted by a consumer facing rising costs. Adami sees some valuation support near June 2022 levels.

  “We're on the other side of growth. We've seen it now for the last eight or nine quarters. That's a problem.”at 30:41

• Karen Finerman · Metropolitan Capital AdvisorsBearish

  Pre-earnings analyst downgrades suggest Chipotle is lowering expectations before a likely miss.

  Finerman argues that when analysts turn negative before earnings, the company may already know it will miss and wants expectations lowered. That behavior would give her pause. Even though the valuation is not demanding, she would rather buy the stock higher on an upswing than try to pick the bottom.

  “If you're the company and you know you're gonna miss, you want them out there lowering. You want to lower expectations.”at 31:57

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBullish

  TLT has more upside after its bounce, possibly toward $48.05.

  TLT has bounced nicely off its lows. Dan expects the ten-year yield to keep moving, with TLT possibly reaching around $48.05, and sees more room to the upside for the long-duration bond ETF.

  “TLT's had a nice bounce off the lows. I think you see the ten year, check back to maybe $48.05. I think there's more room to go to the upside for TLT.”at 46:51

AI chips & semiconductors

• Marta Norton · Empower

  Memory and semiconductor names have little room left to run this year.

  Marta says the first half of the year already borrowed a lot of returns from the back half, so she does not see much distance left for memory and semiconductor names through the rest of this year. She acknowledges that supply and demand dynamics look supportive, but the upside is limited after the first-half run.

  “I feel like the first half of the year borrowed so much in returns from the back half of the year that it feels like I don't really see a lot of these names, the memory names, the semi name having a lot of distance to go for the rest of this year.”at 37:00

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Marta Norton · Empower

  AI spending commitments may prove not money good over the next few years.

  Marta says supply and demand dynamics for AI infrastructure look to be in place, but the question is the payback later on. She points to the large financial commitments companies have made and to how the technology could change, and asks whether today's spending will turn out to be money well spent a few years from now. The concern is about returns on capex rather than near-term demand.

  “the pound of flesh that comes later on down the line when we think about some of these financial commitments that they've made and how the technology could change and whether the spending today was actually money good, you know, a few years down the line.”at 37:30

US housing

• Diana Olick · CNBC

  Homebuilder margins will be hit as 43% of builders cut prices; no housing thaw yet.

  There is no thawing in the housing market: purchase applications are down 18% year over year, and sellers would rather wait than cut prices. Rents are rising again because the multifamily oversupply was absorbed and nothing new is in the pipeline. Ahead of Pulte's report, 43% of builders say they cut prices, the highest level since the pandemic. Builders are already offering concessions and buying down mortgage rates, which Diana says will hurt margins that are already not good.

  “for the season, for the quarter, and we're looking at 43% of builders, which is the highest post pandemic level, saying they cut prices.”at 44:29