Netflix & SpaceX Report Results… And Next Move For Neoclouds 10/20/26

Space Exploration Technologies

Across the shows: 11 speakers in other episodes, 6 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBearish

  SpaceX's plan to go from 1 to 10 gigawatts of compute by 2027 is wildly implausible.

  SpaceX has about one gigawatt of compute in the US and plans for 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027. He asks where the power will come from and where the roughly $500 billion will come from, since each gigawatt costs about $50 billion. He calls it the silliest thing he has ever heard, and says the company is worth about $2 trillion, so he is skeptical about the valuation as well. The timing is a long-term one, through end-2027.

  “This is the silliest thing I have ever heard in my life.”at 14:11

• Morgan Brennan · CNBCBullish

  Starship will be a huge breakthrough, cutting launch costs another 90-95x versus Falcon 9-era pricing.

  She argues Starship is the holy grail of launch because no one has yet engineered a fully reusable vehicle, whereas Falcon is only partially reusable. She draws a parallel to Starlink, which was once thought impossible economically and technically. She cites the roughly 90x cost decline from the space shuttle to Falcon 9 and expects Starship to bring costs down another 90-95x. She thinks the flight-15 attempt is not the only path, since the company is cranking out Starship vehicles on a near-monthly basis and has more waiting in the wings.

  “Starship is the holy grail... whenever it happens, whether it's on 15 or another flight, it will be huge.”at 17:00

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset ManagementBullish

  Musk's compute targets should be discounted, but the capacity ramp is still impressive versus hyperscalers.

  He says Musk's numbers need adjustment: the figure was 1.7 gigawatts at the end of the September quarter, and he is now guiding to 10. Even if the real number lands between 5 and 10, it is still a much bigger figure. Munster reads the same-day capex guidance of $35-40 billion, versus a Street estimate of $19 billion, as a sign investors believe the spending is well spent, which is why the stock rose. He concludes the number is still impressive relative to other hyperscalers.

  “I just take it with a grain of salt and kind of adjust it. And even with that adjustment, it's still an impressive number relative to what we're seeing from the other hyperscalers.”at 29:25

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Buying Tesla will be accretive to SpaceX regardless of the multiple, following the xAI precedent.

  He points to the xAI deal, which was wildly accretive to SpaceX's sum of the parts when the company added it. He argues the same logic applies to Tesla, so buying Tesla will be accretive to SpaceX whatever the multiple turns out to be.

  “SpaceX, the minute they added [xAI], that was wildly accretive to its sum of the parts. So the same thing here”at 34:45

• Karen Finerman · Metropolitan Capital AdvisorsBullish

  Buying Tesla will be very accretive to SpaceX on the math, though the committee setup is problematic.

  She compares SpaceX's enterprise value of about $2 trillion with Tesla's much smaller value and concludes that the deal will be very accretive because of the math. Tesla shareholders who become SpaceX owners would benefit from that appreciation. She is skeptical of governance, though: the special committees look ridiculous, and she believes Musk is not really walled off from them and will be called as soon as the meeting ends.

  “So it's gonna be very accretive because just the math of it is the way that works.”at 35:12

Netflix

Across the shows: 6 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 5 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Netflix's roughly 15x forward multiple looks too cheap to ignore despite slowing growth and light guidance.

  The quarter was not a disaster, but investors are trading off light full-year guidance and slowing growth. Netflix's forward multiple is about 15x, which he says is starting to look almost too good to ignore, even though the stock has broken below its October closing low. He still thinks the company sounds back-footed: it has acknowledged the competitive landscape without naming YouTube, and it is redefining engagement. He also argues Netflix lacks pricing power, since price-sensitive consumers may balk at an extra $5 a month and the ad tier is not doing well. He says the company's strategy feels rudderless and suggests buybacks as a lever, given its balance sheet and free cash flow.

  “that forward evaluation is probably around 15 times right now, and it really is something that I think is starting to look almost too good to ignore”at 3:44

• Karen Finerman · Metropolitan Capital AdvisorsBullish

  Netflix's ad miss and content-leadership turnover are worse than expected, but she is long and would buy more.

  She calls the Q4 ad revenue guidance miss substantial ($2.7 versus $3), though she accepts the company's explanation of slower product rollout if that is true. She dislikes the replacement of content heads, saying it means the quarter could not be a blowout and that the situation is worse than she thought. She expects Netflix to find hit shows given its many shots on goal, but thinks it will take a long time for new content chief Peter Rice's pipeline to produce output. She notes growth came from lower-value markets while North America is mature, and that Netflix bought back $4.8B of stock at an average of $75.11, which she sees as a decent price now on sale. Despite the negatives, she is already long and would like to buy more.

  “I'm long already, though. I would like to buy some more.”at 9:01

• Rich Greenfield · LightShed PartnersUncertain

  Netflix needs breakout global hits; odds favor one or two over the next twelve months.

  Revenue growth has slowed from high teens last year and mid teens early this year to 12% in Q3 and the Q4 forecast. The real fear is whether growth slides to 10%, 11% or 9% in coming years and whether engagement is causing a secular slowdown. Management says it can grow healthy double digits for years, but Wall Street doesn't believe it. Netflix flourishes on breakout hits, and there has been no breakout global hit this calendar year, which management acknowledged by changing leadership. Hits are hard to forecast and one could arrive next month, but he thinks the odds favor Netflix getting one or two over the next twelve months. Investors have given up and see the company as broken, so this is a show-me execution story.

  “They need more of them, and we'll see over the next twelve months. I think the odds are in their favor that they get one or two. Obviously, investors have given up and believe this is just broken.”at 41:53

• Rich Greenfield · LightShed PartnersBullish

  Netflix has pricing power on both ad and premium tiers over the next several years.

  Netflix's ad-supported plan is $8.99 while Disney's bundle of Disney+ and Hulu is $12.99, which suggests room to raise prices. Netflix also has better engagement per member household than Paramount+ or Disney+ and lower churn, though investors ignore this. Engagement drives ad dollars, so engagement is the path to pricing power. He sees substantial pricing power on both the ad-supported and premium ad-free tiers over the next several years, while acknowledging that whether Disney is overpriced is a separate debate.

  “Disney is $12.99. That is the bundle of Disney plus and Hulu... it seems like there is quite a bit of pricing power both on the ad supported tier and on the premium ad free tier over the course of the next several years.”at 43:17

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 14 speakers in other episodes, 13 bullish and 5 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaUncertain

  Meta is probably too early to give a framework for monetizing its Muse AI agent.

  Nathan says the stock was punished when Meta gave its capex number three months ago, when it traded at 52-week lows. A news event a month ago then produced a strong rally. He does not expect much of a monetization framework for Muse from the upcoming earnings. He thinks it is probably a bit early, since Meta is likely still figuring out how individuals and businesses use the product, and monetization depends on that.

  “I wouldn't have high expectations about them kind of giving that much of a framework for how they're going to monetize Muse. I think it's probably a bit early.”at 44:14

• Guy Adami · CNBCBearish

  Meta has run too far too fast and has more downside, with a buy level near $650.

  Meta fell from about $780 to below $700 and then rose almost in a straight line, flirting with its prior all-time highs from last year. Adami sees more room to the downside than upside. He says the setup is not favorable into earnings. He names a buy level closer to $650 than $700, which implies much of the rally is at risk.

  “I think there's a little more room to the downside in this one. There's a level to buy Meta Facebook. I think it's closer to $6.50 than to $700.”at 44:35

• Karen Finerman · Metropolitan Capital AdvisorsBullish

  Market may not punish higher Meta AI spending, since Muse is popular and SpaceX's spend was well received.

  Finerman expects Meta's AI capex to be higher than before. She points to SpaceX's spending being received positively, which suggests investors are now tolerant of big spending. She thinks a higher Meta spend would not get the punishment it received before. Because Muse is so popular, Meta might get a pass on how it will monetize Muse. Her view is that the market reaction to capex has shifted in Meta's favor.

  “Given this SpaceX reaction to their spend, which actually seems to be received positively, maybe Meta spend, if it is higher, and I wouldn't be shocked if it were, that wouldn't receive the kind of punishment that it had before.”at 45:29

Eli Lilly and Company

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Karen Finerman · Metropolitan Capital AdvisorsBullish

  She is bullish on the GLP-1 space, with Lilly her biggest position after its appreciation.

  She says she likes the GLP-1 space and is long it, with Lilly her biggest position by virtue of its appreciation. She also notes Lilly is not part of the cheap value trade, while Novo is, and that Novo's data announcement was not unexpected. Her case for Lilly rests mainly on her existing position and her positive view of the space, not on new fundamentals.

  “I like the space. I'm longing the space. Lilly, just by its appreciation, my biggest position”at 22:46

Novo Nordisk A/S

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Novo's obesity drug is essentially as good as Lilly's, yet the data is treated more favorably to Lilly.

  As someone who is long both Novo and Lilly, he is struck by how the data flow is disproportionately positive for Lilly, especially at the upper ranges of weight loss and sustainability. He argues the two drugs are very similar at their core, and Novo currently has a bigger share of the global market. He frames the recent move as sector rotation, with healthcare looking attractive after years of underperformance by some of the largest companies, and sees Novo as undervalued relative to Lilly on that basis.

  “At their core, they're very similar. Frankly, Novo has a bigger market share right now, at least globally.”at 23:43

Tesla

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset ManagementBullish

  The Tesla-SpaceX combination is likely to win overwhelming shareholder approval and is strategically compelling.

  Musk said twice that a combination is a good idea, and the two special committees mean the probability of a deal has inched up. Because approval is a shareholder vote rather than a structural hurdle, Munster calls it a slam dunk. SpaceX is a vertically integrated AI company, from chips and models to launch and orbital data centers, but it lacks a terrestrial physical-AI business. Tesla fills that gap through FSD and Optimus, so the combined company would be highly unique and would reinforce Musk's AI narrative. He thinks investors should welcome the deal, while expecting SpaceX to pay little for Tesla given the price paid for xAI.

  “I think this will get overwhelming shareholder approval. I think people would really applaud this combination”at 28:52

Capital One Financial

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Karen Finerman · Metropolitan Capital AdvisorsBullish

  Capital One's quarter was strong: credit quality beat and expenses fell.

  Capital One topped earnings and revenue estimates after hours. Finerman says credit quality was a nice beat and expenses were down, so it was a really good quarter. She calls the stock interesting and notes the bank group saw similar results, though this credit-quality story differs from the others.

  “I think the credit quality was a nice beat there, and the expenses were down. I mean, was a really, really pretty good quarter.”at 37:32

Dell Technologies

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Karen Finerman · Metropolitan Capital AdvisorsBullish

  Super Micro's pre-announced AI-driven results should be good for Dell after a rough stretch.

  Super Micro pre-announced strong first-quarter revenue and credited increased demand for AI platforms. Finerman reads this as a positive for Dell, which is also an AI server and hardware supplier. Dell had been through a rough couple of weeks, so the read-through is a relief. The argument is a sector read-through rather than a company-specific analysis.

  “With this [SMCI] preannounced, it has to be a good thing for [Dell]. So Dell, after a rough couple of weeks.”at 46:18

Airlines & aviation

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Airline gross margins are the best ever, and conservative fuel assumptions make airlines worth buying.

  United's assumption of $4.80 a gallon jet fuel for next year is almost a dollar above current prices, which he reads as a conservative and prudent management stance, something airlines have not always shown. He argues airline gross margins have never been better, and capacity is under control even though it is being cut for geopolitical reasons. He expects oil-price-driven costs to become tailwinds at some point. Airline stocks are well off their highs, with United falling from about $138 to about $95, so he thinks investors should be nibbling at airlines here.

  “I would just get back to gross margins for all the airlines. They've never been better.”at 18:25

US stock market outlook

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Healthcare looks very attractive after years of underperformance, so the move reflects sector rotation.

  He reads the day's healthcare rally as rotation rather than a one-off move. He says healthcare looks very attractive here, and that this is years of underperformance for some of the biggest companies in the world. He points to Johnson & Johnson getting a deserved bump on its multiple and Merck coming off the mat for the first time in a long time.

  “I think this is all about rotation. I think health care looks very attractive here, and I think this is years of underperformance, actually, for some of the biggest companies in the world.”at 23:46

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset Management

  Neocloud fears of demand peaking are overdone; compute demand is early and should rise for two years.

  He reads SpaceX's comments as positive for the neoclouds. The main overhang is investors' fear that demand is peaking, which the CoreWeave debt downgrade reflected. SpaceX's comments reaffirm that compute demand is early: personalized bots have about 15 million daily users and use 10-15x the compute of a chatbot, and physical AI has not started. He argues compute numbers can keep rising for the next two years, though not forever.

  “I think the biggest issue with Neo Clouds is this anxiety that investors have that we're near the end.”at 32:36