I've Never Seen Anything Like This… Until Now

Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial

The resilient US consumer was an illusion; revisions erased over 5% of retail sales since 2022.

A Census Bureau benchmark revision erased more than 5% of retail sales from 2022 onward, on top of a roughly 2% cut the year before. Snider argues the 'resilient consumer' narrative, that households kept spending despite price increases, weak confidence and a deteriorating job market, never existed to the degree authorities claimed. After adjusting revised retail sales for prices, real retail volume fell below the already weak 2010s trend by 2023, so consumers were paying more for less. He cites the Conference Board's September confidence drop to 81.9 (lowest since 2014) and a sharply weaker expectations index as evidence that consumers saw the weakness in real time.

“the resilient consumer we've been hearing about for years, the consumer who supposedly kept spending despite price increases, despite weak confidence, despite a deteriorating job market, never actually existed.”at 0:34

Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial

The US economy stopped growing after 2022; official data overstated growth and the recovery.

Snider argues the economy 'forgot how to grow' after 2022. The evidence is a chain of downward benchmark revisions that point the same way: retail sales cut by more than 5% since 2022, payrolls revised down for 2024 and 2025, and industrial production of consumer goods revised lower. Because these series all fall after 2022, he treats them as one synchronized pattern. He attributes the error to models that assume a return to the old growth path, and to temporary nominal bursts (stimulus, reopening, price shocks) being read as durable recovery. He also rejects the NBER's lack of a recession call as proof of health: the downside was prolonged and slow, not a 2008-style crash, and the Conference Board's expectations index was working as designed.

“the economy had forgotten how to grow the entire time.”at 6:58

Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial

Large payroll benchmark revisions show employment was much weaker than reported.

Snider says payroll growth has been revised down repeatedly, starting around late 2023. The large benchmark revisions covering 2024 and 2025 removed enormous amounts of previously reported employment, so the jobs that were reported in those years never existed. He calls payrolls 'an almost irrelevant joke' and treats them as one of several revised series (alongside retail sales and consumer-goods output) that all show the same weakness. Weak sales and production, he argues, mean employers had little reason to add workers.

“The large payroll benchmark revisions covering 2024 and 2025 eliminated enormous amounts of previously reported employment. That never happened.”at 10:26

Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial

The bond curve correctly signalled economic fragility, and the data later moved toward the curve.

Snider argues bonds saw through the 'resilient' data throughout. Whenever data showed strong spending, payroll growth or reacceleration, longer-term yields did not price robust growth or persistent inflation, and the curve kept flattening or inverting. When labor weakness became harder to ignore, bonds rallied and yields fell, with bull steepening. Swaps sent a similar message: markets kept hedging the chance of a weakening economy even while central bankers talked about higher rates for longer. He concludes that the curves were right to be suspicious because the later data moved toward them, not the reverse.

“Longer term yields failed to behave as if robust growth and persistent inflation were ahead. Curves flattened or inverted.”at 16:23

Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial

Inflation inflated nominal sales and hid a real fall in consumer demand.

Snider argues that higher prices lifted nominal retail totals, so dollars spent looked like strength. In real terms households bought fewer goods, shifted to cheaper brands and cut trips, so the real decline was hidden. He ties this to the revised retail data, where inflation-adjusted volume fell below the 2010s trend by 2023. A bigger grocery bill, he says, does not mean a fuller cart, and the inflation that was blamed for weak sentiment was also what concealed the decline in demand.

“That failure was concealed by what everyone calls inflation because higher prices elevated the nominal totals.”at 18:23