Theme · Updated
What podcasters are saying about Central banks outside the US
Summary
In the past 30 days, 25 speakers on 20 finance podcasts discussed Central banks outside the US in 35 views. Chorus has followed Central banks outside the US since October 1, 2026.
Who talks about it most
- Paul Donovan · 5
- Vincent Deluard · 3
- Chetan Ahya · 2
- Jens Eisenschmidt · 2
- James Aitken · 2
- Jesper Koll · 2
- Kay Haigh · 1
- Richard Portes · 1
- Christine Lagarde · 1
- Jeff Snider · 1
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Kay Haigh · Goldman Sachs Asset Management
A new Fed chair is unlikely to drive major change across central banking; major central banks are strong institutions.
Developed-market and large EM central banks coordinate, compare notes and learn from each other, but each has its own political pressures and style. Personal style matters, but the ECB, Bank of England and others are strong institutions. A recent change in chairmanship is unlikely to drive tremendous change across central banking, though she will watch how less forward guidance plays out.
“these institutions are kind of very strong institutions, ECB, Bank of England, and I don't think that a singular change and a new chairmanship, given that it's a very recent change in chairmanship, necessarily going to drive tremendous change across central banking”at 7:57
Bloomberg Surveillance: Markets Price in Tech Spending and Midterm Elections ·
Richard Portes · London Business School
Lagarde has been a safe, forward-looking, consensual steward of the ECB, with only one early misstep.
Lagarde had one early misstep when she said her job was not keeping spreads low. Beyond that she has run a consensual Governing Council with no leaks of dissent, unlike the Fed. The ECB and Fed also watch each other and the Bank of Japan, with tacit coordination, and Lagarde and Warsh have a good rapport.
“She had one misstep very early in her tenure when she talked about my job is not keeping spreads low. But beyond that, she has been a safe, forward looking steward of the ECB.”at 20:19
Bloomberg Surveillance: Markets Price in Tech Spending and Midterm Elections ·
Paul Donovan · UBS Global Wealth Management
ECB's next leader will be chosen by national interest rather than economic competence.
Lagarde's early resignation from the ECB was widely expected. The ECB governing council is so unwieldy that the bank's leadership has had disproportionate influence. Lagarde not being an economist denied the bank a critical facet of leadership, and there was no revolutionary shift in economic analysis despite a rapidly changing outside world. Because the successor will be chosen through political horse-trading among governments, national interest rather than personal competence will dictate the next ECB leader, though there may be a minimum competence requirement.
“The European Central Bank's governing council is so unwieldy that the leadership of the bank has had to have disproportionate influence... But Lagarde's successor is not going to be determined by aptness for the role... National interest, not personal competence, will dictate the next ECB leader”at 0:31
UBS On-Air: UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Dealing with the decidedly dull' ·
Christine Lagarde · European Central Bank
ECB holds rates but won't pre-commit to a path; will adjust all instruments to hit 2% inflation.
The ECB kept its three key rates unchanged. Decisions are data-dependent and made meeting by meeting, based on the inflation outlook and its risks, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The ECB is not pre-committing to a rate path. The energy shock pushes inflation up and growth down, and tighter financing conditions are likely to weigh on both. Declining energy inflation together with the effects of higher interest rates should bring inflation back to target. The ECB is committed to stabilising inflation at 2% in the medium term and stands ready to use all instruments to preserve transmission.
“And in any case, we stand ready to adjust all of our instruments within our mandate to ensure that inflation stabilizes sustainably at our medium term target”at 13:08
ECB press conferences and Euro Matters (ECB podcast): President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 29 October 2026 ·
Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial
ECB rate hikes are misguided: higher rates destroy loan demand and borrower quality rather than fixing Europe's credit problem.
Central bankers keep insisting higher rates are needed because energy costs might generate renewed inflation, but banks are looking past that because they see higher costs already damaging demand, margins and borrower quality. Snider argues the ECB administers a short-term benchmark rate and does not command banks to finance a factory or approve a mortgage. Those lending decisions depend on expected repayment, collateral values, liquidity, funding markets and confidence. Higher rates can raise some interest income but can also destroy loan demand, raise funding costs, reduce asset values and create future problems. He argues the ECB's rate hikes reflect inflation-fighting credibility while a bank sees weaker cash flow, poor collateral and another reason to reject a marginal borrower. He also argues that central banks treat policy as if they control economic conditions, raising rates to slow the economy and cutting to speed it up, while the actual speed of the European economy never changes.
“Higher rates don't create good borrowers. They can increase interest income that's earned on some assets, but they can also destroy loan demand for other things.”at 15:06
Eurodollar University: European Banks Just Did What They Do Before Every Crisis... ·
Paul Donovan · UBS Global Wealth Management
ECB presidency selection politics are blatant, and Lagarde's evasiveness on early retirement will draw questions.
Donovan says the ECB rate decision is unlikely to matter, and that market interest may instead focus on the future of ECB President Lagarde. He describes the political processes around choosing the next ECB president as fairly blatant and already well advanced. He notes that Lagarde has been evasive on early retirement, but says this is beginning to wear thin and that questions are bound to be asked.
“with fairly blatant processes of politics already well advanced around the selection of the next ECB President. Lagarde has been fairly evasive on early retirement issues, but that's beginning to wear thin and questions are bound to be asked.”at 3:09
UBS On-Air: UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Mundanity upon mundanity' ·
Vincent Deluard · StoneX
The ECB's market-priced hikes look excessive; the ECB will slow hikes and offer little rescue.
The ECB has already hiked twice. Futures markets now price the same path as the Fed's three hikes, which Deluard thinks is absurd given the economic weakness. The ECB is still shrinking its bond portfolio, which adds supply to the market and makes the euro-area fiscal problem worse. He does not expect the ECB to help the crisis, and expects it at most to slow the hikes, hoping the weaker euro does the work. Any currency-led recovery would take time.
“If you look at the future's implied probability, we're on the same track as the Fed's three rate hikes. Now I think that's absolutely crazy.”at 49:38
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
Vincent Deluard · StoneX
Lagarde's early exit sets up an ECB succession crisis; her successor is unlikely to be a Draghi.
Lagarde's term ends around July, but she is reportedly leaving early, possibly for a role at the World Economic Forum. This lets Macron appoint her successor sooner, and the succession will involve complicated horse-trading over nationality, gender and the balance of the ECB. Deluard argues that major stock-market crises tend to start when a new central bank chair arrives, because markets dislike uncertainty. He doubts the successor will be a Draghi-style leader, since Draghi's 'whatever it takes' ended the earlier sovereign-debt crisis and markets rallied after it. Lagarde's successor is unlikely to do the same, so the ECB will not be a stabiliser when the crisis comes.
“most big stock market crisis happen as soon as a new chair. Like, the market doesn't like this uncertainty.”at 51:19
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
Chetan Ahya · Morgan Stanley
BOJ will hike only twice, December and March, below the three hikes markets price.
Ahya's house view is that the BOJ hikes twice, in December and again in March next year, against market pricing of three more hikes. The dovish call rests on the source of Japan's inflation. Inflation has been driven mainly by yen weakness and higher commodity prices rather than demand, and real consumption is still about 1% below pre-COVID levels. With no demand-driven overheating, the BOJ will avoid more aggressive tightening.
“We expect the BOJ to hike its policy rate twice first in December and then again in March next year. This compares with market pricing of three more rate hikes. ...Hence, we think BOJ will avoid taking up more aggressive policy tightening.”at 4:41
Thoughts on the Market (Morgan Stanley): One Global Shock, Different Rate Paths ·
Jens Eisenschmidt · Morgan Stanley
ECB will tighten gradually; market prices too many hikes, with one in December and possibly March.
The ECB was the only major central bank to get inflation back to target and had already cut rates to 2%, which is roughly neutral. Responding to the energy supply shock is therefore easy: it can tighten by moving toward the restrictive end of the neutral range. The policy question is how strong the economy holds up, since that determines how much of today's inflation becomes tomorrow's through wage agreements. Hikes will be gradual rather than aggressive, and since the last call the risks to inflation have stacked up to the upside, with more inflation and resiliency than expected. Eisenschmidt expects one hike in December and says one more in March is possible. Financial tightening at the long end is a restraint that could mean the ECB ends up right without changing its call. He thinks the market is pricing too many hikes. He contrasts the ECB with the Bank of England, which had been restrictive for longer and had more room to wait.
“I think the market is pricing too many rate hikes. We have one more at this stage in December, and that's it. ...we have seen the tightening at the long end. If that continues, we may very well end up being right with that call without any need to change it.”at 8:20
Thoughts on the Market (Morgan Stanley): One Global Shock, Different Rate Paths ·
Chetan Ahya · Morgan Stanley
Most Asian central banks will hike countercyclically as exports drive growth and US rates rise.
Asia does not have a large inflation problem, but growth is strong because of exports. Core inflation is within most central banks' comfort zones, except in Australia and Korea, so they are not expected to react to inflation directly. As US rates rise and growth stays strong, most Asian central banks will take countercyclical rate hikes in the coming quarters.
“...for most central banks, [we are] expecting them to take up rate hikes. But those will be more counter cyclical in nature. ...most central banks will take up countercyclical rate hikes in the coming quarters.”at 9:46
Thoughts on the Market (Morgan Stanley): One Global Shock, Different Rate Paths ·
Vincent Deluard · StoneX
The ECB cannot hike rates during a debt crisis; in the short term it can only hold off.
Eurozone debt stress, especially in France, constrains the ECB. Hiking rates during a full-blown debt crisis would worsen the sovereign's funding position. Short term, the ECB's only option is to skip hikes at upcoming meetings. This is why he would pay euro rates rather than expect hikes.
“I don't really see the ECB being able to hike rates when we have a full blown debt crisis. And that's really the only... In the short term, that's the only thing the ECB can do is not hike rates.”at 38:54
The Meb Faber Show: StoneX' Vincent Deluard: The S&P Is Hiding a Bear Market | #655 ·
Paul Donovan · UBS Global Wealth Management
The Bank of Japan will likely raise rates but shows no real urgency about tightening.
Japan's national consumer price inflation came in as expected, so markets are unlikely to react strongly. The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates, but it does not seem to have any real sense of urgency about the tightening process. The support is thin and the timing is not given.
“The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates, but it doesn't seem to have any real sense of urgency about the tightening process.”at 3:30
UBS On-Air: UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Who cares about technology?' ·
Sam Unsted · Bloomberg News
The ECB is far from intervening, since French yields are not yet disorderly and banks are sturdier than in 2011.
Asked whether the ECB might consider French spreads an existential threat to the euro, Sam says it is a long way off. The eurozone banking problems of the euro crisis were much worse than today, because the system is now more regulated and robust. This is about sovereign debt rather than banks. The spread against Germany has widened, but the actual French yield is still well below crisis levels. The word investors would use for the situation is disorderly, and Sam says the market is not there yet.
“So we're not quite at that kind of, the word I think they would use is disorderly. We're not quite at that kind of point just yet.”at 17:37
Merryn Talks Money: French Bond Markets and AI Neoclouds Feel The Pressure ·
Jens Eisenschmidt · Morgan Stanley
Rising long-term rates may tighten euro-area financial conditions too much, a risk for the ECB to manage.
Eisenschmidt says European monetary policymakers are debating whether long rates have risen too much, which would present a significant tightening of financial conditions. He treats balancing this as a real risk that calls for caution. He lists interest rates or a too-tight monetary policy stance as one of three main risks to the European outlook, alongside energy-driven consumption and the investment cycle.
“the degree to which long rates have increased maybe too much and present a significant tightening of financial conditions.”at 11:57
Thoughts on the Market (Morgan Stanley): Economic Roundtable: What’s Keeping Global Growth Going? ·
Ole Hansen · Saxo Bank
Energy-driven inflation keeps rate-hike expectations elevated, with about three hikes priced by next summer.
Higher energy prices are feeding through to inflation, which keeps expectations for rate hikes high. He says at least three hikes are priced in by next summer, possibly close to four. This pressures bonds and gold and adds to funding costs for risk assets. The central bank is not named in the excerpt, so this view is most likely about the European context he is speaking from.
“And the higher energy prices are also feeding through to inflation and that's keeping the expectation for rate hikes elevated. Three hikes are priced in by this time.”at 27:28
The David Lin Report: Massive Selloff Today: Start Of Something Bigger? | Ole Hansen ·
Louis-Vincent Gave · Gavekal
Market pricing three ECB rate hikes is wrong; the ECB will never deliver them.
While France is in crisis, markets are still pricing in three ECB rate hikes. He argues this will never happen. The French fiscal and political crisis, and the pressure on the euro's survival, make a sequence of hikes implausible.
“the market is still pricing in three rate hikes from the ECB. That's never going to happen. The ECB is never going to have three rate hikes.”at 53:11
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France ·
Kevin Warsh · Federal Reserve
Global central banks tightened in sync against shared inflation, with no free riders, which Warsh sees as positive.
Warsh says inflation is not unique to the United States and that central banks face a common challenge. Each one acts on its own domestic mandate, but he says the result has been a synchronous tightening in monetary policy across most places in the world. He argues that this means there are no free riders and that common action is underway. He views that as a positive development.
“it was a synchronous tightening in monetary policy in most places around the world, and that means there's no free riders.”at 40:35
The David Lin Report: Tech Stocks Going To ZERO: 'The Whole Thing Is Going To Collapse' | George Noble View test report Edit title ·
James Aitken · Aitken Advisors
New Zealand's premature easing let inflation rebound to 4%; don't bet on a peak in policy rates.
The RBNZ hiked aggressively to 5.5% by May 2023 and got the recession it forecast, with two quarters of negative growth. Year-on-year CPI returned to just above 2%, the middle of its 1-3% range, and the RBNZ declared job done and cut back to about 2.25%. Inflation then rose again to 4%. New Zealand is not a perfect metaphor, and complicating factors such as the Middle East energy shock are present, but as a small open economy it is a bellwether. Because there is unfinished business, investors should be very careful about betting on a peak in policy rates.
“But I'd be very careful about betting on a peak in policy rates. There is unfinished business,”at 34:36
On The Tape with Danny Moses: James Aitken: It Pays To Shave With Occam's Razor ·
James Aitken · Aitken Advisors
ECB will hike if energy prices keep rising; rates traders betting on cuts were crushed.
The ECB has been clear all year that it will hike rates if energy prices keep going up. Some rates traders at pod shops ignored this and built levered positions betting that European short-term rates would fall. Energy prices instead kept rising after the Iran conflict, and crack spreads rose too. Smarter rates traders got out, but others held on, and the resulting losses for hedge funds in European rates this summer were staggering.
“The ECB, bless them, has been crystal clear all year, Danny, that if energy prices keep going up, we will hike rates.”at 51:57
On The Tape with Danny Moses: James Aitken: It Pays To Shave With Occam's Razor ·
Thierry Wizman · Macquarie Group
The ECB's single rate suits strong eurozone members, hurting weak ones like France.
Countries in the euro zone differ, and some are weak and need lower rates while others are strong and need higher ones. The ECB is a single central bank that can set only one interest rate for the whole continent. When rates are too high, the weak countries bear the cost. France has had weak growth for a long time, so giving monetary policy to a federated central bank is, in Wizman's view, not working in France's interest these days.
“the European Central Bank is a one stop shop. It can only have one interest rate that prevails upon the whole continent to the detriment if it's too high of countries that are weak.”at 48:03
Prof G Markets: Is Nvidia Selling More Chips Than Anyone Can Use? ·
Paul Donovan · UBS Global Wealth Management
Repeated one-off oil and supply shocks leave central banks unable to act; underlying inflation looks benign.
The current oil shock is the fourth successive one-off price shock after the post-pandemic supply disruption, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and tariffs, and the Gulf War. All of them are beyond central bank control. None reflect macro-driven supply-demand imbalances that central banks can influence. Apart from profit-led inflation after the supply chain disruption, there is little or no evidence of second-round effects. Despite four inflation shocks, second-round effects have not emerged, which suggests underlying inflation pressures tied to the economy's structure are benign. The repeated shocks, however, prevent observation of those underlying pressures.
“it is the fourth such one off price shock, and they're all beyond central bank control. ... Despite four successive inflation shocks, second round effects have still not really emerged.”at 1:17
UBS On-Air: UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Up we go again' ·
Jesper Koll · Monex Group
Bank of Japan will move faster and lift its policy rate to 2.25-2.5% by next summer.
Governor Ueda is reprivatizing the JGB market, which had been dominated by the Bank of Japan under yield curve control. Private-sector share of liquidity has risen from under 20% to 80-90%, and every bank has built JGB trading teams. Wages are growing faster than inflation and the national economy is gaining traction. That confidence lets the BOJ move faster over the next six to nine months. He agrees with Scott Bessent that the BOJ is behind the curve and expects it to move toward a neutral rate.
“over the next six to nine months, you're gonna see the Bank of Japan actually moving faster rather than slower. And I expect that by next summer that the Bank of Japan policy rate is gonna be at two and a quarter to 2.5%.”at 24:39
Top Traders Unplugged: GM108: Maybe Japan Is Finally Changing for Real ft. Jesper Koll ·
Jesper Koll · Monex Group
BoJ moves ahead of the curve, flattening Japan's yield curve; policy rate reaches 2.25-2.5% by next summer.
Koll expects the main theme over the next six to nine months to be a flatter yield curve, not a continued rise in long-end yields. He argues the long-end rise narrative, which rests on inflation and debt-issuance concerns, is overdone. The Bank of Japan is getting ahead of the curve rather than lagging it, and he expects the policy rate to reach 2.25-2.5% by next summer.
“I actually think over the next six to nine months, the big theme is gonna be a flatter yield curve... by next summer, you know, the Bank of Japan policy rate is gonna be between two and a quarter and 2.5%.”at 57:15
Top Traders Unplugged: GM108: Maybe Japan Is Finally Changing for Real ft. Jesper Koll ·
Ron Butler · Butler Mortgage
Bank of Canada will hike rates on October 28 or December, as its inflation pivot is clear.
Ron argues the Bank of Canada's only job is to contain inflation, and its only tool is the policy rate. He says the upcoming Canadian inflation print is unlikely to be good and another print in November will influence the December 9 meeting. He points to Governor Macklem shifting from talking about a weak economy for about a year to talking about inflation in a Halifax speech. He notes the US, Bank of Japan and ECB have already raised rates, so he expects the Bank of Canada to follow and says it is only a question of timing.
“These people know how to signal their future moves. ... And once he saw The US raise, the Bank of Japan raised, European Central Bank raised, he knows it's gonna happen, and it's just a question of when.”at 16:42
The David Lin Report: Bond Market Crashes; Your Home Is Next | Ron Butler ·
Mario Draghi
The ECB will stay on the sidelines; the bar to intervene on French spreads is high.
Draghi says the widening spreads are a repricing of fiscal and political risk, so nothing so far would prompt an ECB intervention. The bar is high for three reasons. Inflation is high and has just risen, and price stability is the ECB's mandate. The tools require contagion across Europe, which he says is not substantial, and an impairment in the transmission mechanism, which he says is not visible, since bank lending has increased. Rules also bar TPI intervention for countries under an excessive deficit procedure. He expects the ECB to watch markets and the speed of rising spreads, but to stay on the sidelines for now.
“look at these spreads. The spreads are basically a repricing of fiscal and political risk. So to that extent, there is nothing that would elicit an ECB intervention.”at 6:03
Bloomberg Talks: Former ECB President Mario Draghi Talks Growth in Europe ·
Paul Donovan · UBS Global Wealth Management
The PBoC's policy-rate change is technical and doesn't clearly signal easing, and any easing may have little effect.
China's central bank plans to shift its policy rate target from a seven-day lending rate to an overnight rate. This is a technical adjustment, not usually market-moving, though some speculate it may be used to ease policy. China could ease without making the technical change, so the adjustment does not necessarily change the direction of expected rates. Even a disguised easing is unlikely to be very stimulative, given that the constraint on the domestic economy is consumer caution rather than the cost of credit.
“First, China could ease monetary policy without the technical change, so making the adjustment does not necessarily alter the expectation of the direction of interest rates.”at 2:13
UBS On-Air: UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Market wobbles and economic stability' ·
Adam Farstrup · Schroders
The ECB is nearly at the end of its tightening cycle while the Fed keeps tightening.
Marstrand expects US tightening to continue because US inflation is domestically driven, mainly services. Europe's inflation is more energy-driven and more balanced. If energy prices pull back, the ECB does not need to hike as aggressively, and he thinks it is very nearly at the end of its tightening cycle. He also expects the ECB to eventually backstop France, although France has to sort out its own fiscal house first.
“So we think The US is gonna continue to tighten, and in Europe, we think that you're very nearly at the end of that tightening cycle.”at 34:49
Ruchir Sharma · Rockefeller International
ECB bond buying backstops let Italy and France delay reforms, so Europe's debt problems never get fixed.
Europe has responded to widening French and periphery spreads by buying more government debt, which keeps the problem going. Sharma argues that buying as a buyer of last resort is far easier than fixing the underlying issues. Italy and France have so much wealth that they can always find a way to be bailed out, so they never solve their problems. Countries like Greece and Portugal solved theirs because they lacked that wealth cushion and were forced into reforms. Governments also cannot lean on low rates and monetising debt as they once could, because inflation has returned and affordability is now the top political issue, which limits their room to paper over the problem.
“I just hope that it's much harder to fix the real stuff. It's a lot easier to just come in and say, you know, hey. We're the buyer of last resort. Europe has not been able to fix this stuff because they're always being bailed out.”at 21:25
CNBC Power Lunch: Global Markets, AI Debt Concerns, Energy Stock Ideas 10/19/26 ·
Bob Michele · J.P. Morgan Asset Management
EM central banks are as good as developed-market peers, and were even sharper hiking from 2021.
Bob says the authorities in EM countries are doing a great job, and the central banks are every bit as good as those in developed markets. He argues that EM central banks began hiking in 2021 a year before developed-market central banks, so they were arguably a little sharper. He links this to the strong local-currency EM debt market, where he sees the central banks as credible and disciplined.
“The central banks are doing a fantastic job. They're every bit as good as the developed market central banks... they're actually a little bit sharper.”at 55:10
Masters in Business: Financing In The AI Boom: Masters in Business with Bob Michele ·
5 older views on Central banks outside the US are on the episode pages, and all of them are a question away in your AI with Chorus.
Ask your AI about Central banks outside the US
Chorus gives Claude, ChatGPT and other assistants every view on Central banks outside the US from the market's podcasts. Ask who's worried, who isn't, who changed their mind, and why.
Chorus reports what speakers said. It isn't investment advice.