AI Debt Concerns Grip Market… And Bank Of America’s Rough Day 10/14/26

Oracle

Across the shows: 12 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 10 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBearish

  Oracle's debt-funded build-out depends on one customer, OpenAI, and its contracts could vanish if demand fails.

  Nathan says Oracle has been warned for over a year that investors will not give it the benefit of the doubt on its debt-fueled build-out. That build-out rests on one main customer, OpenAI, and he now sees Meta added. Long-term agreements are not guaranteed. If the demand does not show up, the contracts go away, so the debt-fueled plan is at risk.

  “investors have not been willing to give them, you know, the benefit of the doubt on how their debt fueled build out is gonna be for one customer... If the demand does not materialize, then these contracts are gonna go away.”at 4:37

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.Uncertain

  Oracle can wait out its contracts using software revenue, but Grasso sees no reason to rush in.

  Grasso says Oracle is able to pay to wait for its contracts to come through, using its software revenue to service debt for the next couple of years. He still sees contract risk, since anything can be cancelled, and says there is no reason to rush out and buy AI infrastructure names like this. He holds a small position in Oracle, so he has a stake in the outcome, but he does not make a bullish call.

  “you do have, like, an Oracle. You have them being able to pay to wait for their contracts to come through on their debt for the next couple of years using their software revenue.”at 7:48

• Chris White · BondCliQNeutral

  Oracle's decades-long debt maturities make it far less exposed to short-term rate refinancing risk than CoreWeave.

  White contrasts Oracle with CoreWeave. Oracle's debt runs out for decades, so even if short-term rates rise, Oracle does not need to tap the market to refinance. White does not treat this as a bullish call. He notes that bond investors are still doubting the long-term AI hyperscaler stories and demanding more yield, so the advantage is one of maturity structure rather than a clean endorsement.

  “That's very different than when you're looking at, let's say, an oracle, which has debt going out for decades. So even if short term interest rates start to change and go higher, it's not that... Like, it's a situation where Oracle needs to refinance by tapping the market again.”at 13:32

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBearish

  Oracle's software business is interesting, but its cloudy credit liability is holding back the equity.

  Seymour says the problem with Oracle is not its core software business, which he finds interesting. The problem is the credit liability behind its AI and cloud build-out. Earlier, when the software selloff hit, his team had already removed any value for the AI and data center business, which he always said was low margin. The credit question is cloudy enough that it is holding back the stock.

  “The problem with Oracle is not that the core software business isn't interesting. It's the question of what is the credit liability there... it's cloudy enough that it's holding back the equity.”at 19:29

• David Rosenberg · Rosenberg ResearchBearish

  Oracle's CDS widened 25bp to about 288, above summer 2008 levels, signaling AI-credit stress.

  Rosenberg points to a growing number of weak links in the AI trade whose debt trades like high yield even though they are rated investment grade. Oracle's credit default swaps widened 25 basis points in a day, to about 288, which is higher than in the summer of 2008. He reads this as where stress starts, with weak hands first, before the strongest players emerge as winners.

  “We have a growing number of the weakest links in the AI trade that are seeing their debt start to trade like high yield, even though they're rated IG, and we saw for example Oracle's CDS widened out 25 basis points today, think at two eighty eight, it's higher than it was in the summer of two thousand and eight”at 38:32

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 9 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 8 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.Bearish

  CoreWeave spends about 25% of revenue on debt service, a far more serious problem than backlog risk.

  Grasso says backlog contracts can always be cancelled in a world where anything can be reneged on, though capacity is scarce. CoreWeave, however, spends about 25% of every dollar it brings in on debt. He calls that a completely different story. He says there is tremendous risk and no reason to rush out and buy it. A 10-year yield rise of a point would make the conversation go away near term.

  “Core Weave, 25% of every dollar they bring in goes to pay debt. That's a different story completely.”at 8:00

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBearish

  CoreWeave's investment-grade status is doubtful; its credit rests on hyperscaler commitments that may not hold.

  Seymour says the market is asking what investors actually own. He frames CoreWeave as a classic case: is the debt truly investment grade, or is it a wrapper around hyperscaler commitments that may not be there? He does not doubt that hyperscalers believe in the demand. The issue is that no one knows whether the commitments will hold. Investors are now being more careful instead of buying blindly.

  “this is a classic case of, is this truly investment grade? Is this truly a wrapper around it, which has hyperscalers and commitments that Dan has referenced and Stu has referenced that that that aren't really going to be there?”at 8:53

• Chris White · BondCliQBearish

  CoreWeave's short-dated debt makes it highly sensitive to rising short-term rates when it refinances.

  CoreWeave is only about 5% of the roughly $258 billion of debt sold by AI-linked companies over the past year, so it is not large. The concern is maturity: its debt is short, so it must refinance within five to seven years. That leaves it much more exposed to short-term rate conditions than Oracle, whose debt runs for decades. If rates rise over the next two or three years, refinancing its existing obligations becomes a major worry. White says this is not a major default risk today but that investors will demand more yield.

  “What is concerning though is that their maturity range is short. They're gonna have to refinance this debt in the next five to seven years, and that then makes them a lot more sensitive to, I would say, the shorter term interest rate condition.”at 13:09

Anthropic

Across the shows: 34 speakers in other episodes, 15 bullish and 35 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBearish

  Private AI valuations may fall sharply if Anthropic lists below its private marks, hitting investors such as Amazon.

  Nathan says many private-market valuations for companies funding these AI deals rest on Anthropic's valuation. If Anthropic goes public at a much lower price than its current trading level, those investors will have to write down their marks. He points to Amazon and others that have booked gains on these holdings, which he calls circular. He presents this as a risk, not a forecast.

  “If they don't go public... or maybe even if an... Anthropic goes public, it goes, you know, much less than where it's trading right now, then you're gonna have all these marks.”at 5:11

Space Exploration Technologies

Across the shows: 11 speakers in other episodes, 18 bullish and 7 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBearish

  SpaceX's billion-dollar-a-month compute contracts are short-dated, cancellable, and signed while it loses a billion a month.

  Nathan says SpaceX, on the eve of its IPO, signed a billion-dollar-a-month compute deal with Anthropic and another with Google. It was losing about a billion dollars a month at the time. Those contracts are only months out, so either counterparty, or both, could cancel them. He treats the deals as a source of risk, not durable revenue, and groups SpaceX with the neoclouds and Oracle as firms taking short-term, costly financing.

  “they did a billion dollar a month compute deal with Anthropic, and they did another one with Google. They were losing a billion dollars a month... either one of those companies or both could... cancel those contracts.”at 5:42

Bank of America

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Chris McGratty · KBW (Keefe, Bruyette & Woods)Bullish

  Bank of America is on a multi-year ROE improvement story and cheap at nine times earnings; the fine is a setback.

  McGratty calls the $1.2 billion fine an unfortunate outcome that is progressing toward resolution, not a sign of a Wells Fargo-style problem. He says the bank is on a multi-year return-on-equity improvement story. Its ROE is above 16% and it trades at nine times earnings, while sentiment has swung sharply negative in three months. He notes the stock has frustrated investors who expected more, but he sees large ROE potential and the market likes value opportunities like this.

  “the company is on a multi year ROE improvement story. This is a step back, but this is a 16% plus ROE bank that's trading at nine times earnings.”at 25:14

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Across the shows: 7 speakers in other episodes, 6 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Chris McGratty · KBW (Keefe, Bruyette & Woods)Bullish

  JPMorgan is best in class and its earnings are de-risked after guidance on net interest income and expenses.

  McGratty calls JPMorgan the quality name, the best in class. It trades at 13 times earnings against BofA's nine. He says its earnings outlook was de-risked by management on the conference call. Management said net interest income estimates for next year are too low, and that the expense outlook for next year is good, after last year's expense scare that weighed on the stock for six months.

  “JPMorgan yesterday derisked the earnings outlook in one comment on the conference call. They said, number one, our estimates for net interest income are way too low next year, and number two, they said the expense outlook for for next year is good.”at 26:54

Morgan Stanley

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Chris McGratty · KBW (Keefe, Bruyette & Woods)Bullish

  Morgan Stanley's wealth franchise is de-risked and will capture IPO and wealth creation when the AI trade returns.

  McGratty says Morgan Stanley's earnings have been de-risked by strong net new asset growth this quarter, and the stock has de-risked about 15% over the past couple of months. When the AI trade comes back, Morgan Stanley will capture IPO revenue and the compounding of wealth over time. He lists it with JPMorgan as the quality name.

  “When the AI trade comes back, and it will, right, that is a company that not only will capture the IPO revenues, but the wealth creation, the compounding of wealth over time, that's where Morgan Stanley is.”at 27:25

Citigroup

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Chris McGratty · KBW (Keefe, Bruyette & Woods)Bullish

  Citi is a long-held favorite on its ROE improvement story.

  McGratty says KBW has liked Citi for some time on its ROE improvement story. He notes that Citi sold off hard this week, like Bank of America, despite Tim's point that the two had been bought as relative-value rerating plays. He gives no specific numbers for Citi beyond the story.

  “Citi is a name that we've liked for some time, that that ROE improvement story.”at 27:43

The Goldman Sachs Group

Across the shows: 5 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.Bullish

  Goldman Sachs has little adverse exposure to rising rates, making it a top bank pick with JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley.

  Grasso ranks JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley as his preferred banks, in that order. He says Goldman has no exposure to rising rates and no adverse exposure to the extent that other banks do. The rate environment is the basis for his preference.

  “If you look at Goldman Sachs, they have no exposure to the rising rates, no adverse exposure to the extent that the other banks do. I would pick a JPMorgan, a Goldman Sachs, and a Morgan Stanley in that order.”at 30:12

Apple

Across the shows: 19 speakers in other episodes, 8 bullish and 6 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stuart Kaiser · CitiBullish

  Apple is a defensive large-cap winner with less AI exposure, favored in the current big-is-safe market.

  Kaiser admits the valuation is high. He still prefers the bigger stocks because of credit risk and spending concerns. Apple has less AI exposure than the rest of the Magnificent Seven, which helps it now. He argues that big is winning, big is better, and big is safe, and that this benefits Apple. He wants large-cap growth going into earnings.

  “Apple probably has a little bit less AI exposure than the rest of the mag segment, which is probably probably helping them right now... I think that large cap growth is where we want to be going into earnings.”at 33:20

Constellation Energy

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Constellation is a high-beta utility play on gas, nuclear and Texas grid build-out.

  Seymour says the utility trade is interesting, including utilities with exposure to natural gas and nuclear and a demand story driven by grid build-out in places like Texas. He calls these high-beta utility plays rather than just data center stocks. He states he has already positioned in Constellation for this reason.

  “So I actually think that the utility trade is interesting here... I think they're the high beta utility plays... And so I've mentioned before, that's why I'm Constellation.”at 43:56

GE Vernova

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  GE Vernova is high quality and well exposed after three years of heroic gains.

  Seymour calls GE Vernova a heroic stock that has performed for three years. He describes it as high quality and very well exposed to the power and grid buildout theme, which he argues is driving the utility trade. He pushes back on the idea that these are just data center names.

  “GE Vernova, by the way, has been a heroic stock for three years. So let's call it what it is, high quality, and very well exposed.”at 43:56

Caterpillar

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 0 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBearish

  Caterpillar is an AI-leveraged basket stock that looks cheap trailing but faces trouble ahead.

  Seymour says Caterpillar has been AI-leveraged and trades as part of the picks-and-shovels basket that includes HVAC and elevator names. It looks remarkably cheap on a trailing basis, but he sees trouble going forward. He points to mining peers Rio Tinto and BHP selling off as they react to higher commodity prices, and says he does not want to own Caterpillar here.

  “this is a stock that has been AI leveraged, and it's traded as part of that basket you buy... I think Caterpillar looks remarkably cheap on a trailing basis. I think you have trouble going forward... I don't wanna own Caterpillar here.”at 44:32

Dollar General

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.Neutral

  Dollar General's consumables demand is steady, but its stock has not performed in this environment.

  Grasso says Dollar General sells consumables, so shoppers always have money for the last dollar spent on food and there will always be a market for it. He adds that the stock has not performed in the current environment, so the demand strength has not translated into share price gains.

  “Dollar gen is your consumables. So you always have money. The last dollar that you spend is on what you eat. So there's always gonna be a market for them, but their stock really hasn't performed”at 46:25

Walmart

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 0 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBullish

  Walmart is the discount name to buy, though he won't chase it after its big run.

  Nathan says Walmart is the one he'd be a buyer of in the discount basket, as the biggest name in the group and a stock that can be bought at a discount. He agrees with Steve Grasso's points on it. He also says he wouldn't chase Walmart after its big run, and notes the stock is now very defensive.

  “Walmart in this basket, that's the one I'd be a buyer. You got this at a discount, I'd the biggest name... I just said I wouldn't chase Walmart after this big run. I like it.”at 46:41

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Stuart Kaiser · Citi

  Hyperscaler AI spending looks durable, so CoreWeave worries assume a spending stop not yet in sight.

  Kaiser calls this a trickle-down EPS story: hyperscaler spending flows through the rest of the market and creates earnings growth elsewhere. Worrying about CoreWeave therefore means worrying that this spending spigot gets turned off. He does not think that has happened yet. Hyperscalers will likely defend the spending as high-return over the next few weeks. Top-tier borrowers still trade at tight 75 basis point credit spreads, and they are committed to the spending. Betting against it is dangerous right now.

  “So if you're worried about CoreWeave, then you're effectively worried that that spigot, you know, ultimately kind of gets turned off. I don't think we're there yet.”at 6:47

• Chris White · BondCliQ

  Newly issued hyperscaler bonds are trading wider after issue, so investors will demand higher yields next time.

  White says a lot of newly issued hyperscaler bonds are trading much wider six months after issue, which he calls abnormal for bond investors, especially large institutions. He reads this as a warning. If hyperscalers need to return to the market, investors will not be fooled twice and will demand a yield premium for the added risk. He expects these bonds to sell off quickly after issue, so the cost of financing the AI build-out will rise.

  “we are seeing a lot of the newly issued bonds by hyperscalers trade much wider six months from now... the investors will not be fooled twice. They're going to demand a yield premium to take on the additional risk”at 13:43

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal Media

  Data center opposition is bipartisan and will persist after the midterms, not fade as Steve expects.

  Nathan disagrees with Steve Grasso that the rhetoric will die down after the midterms. He calls data center builds a bipartisan issue. A Democratic wave could lean into it. Many data centers are going up in red states, which share the concern. He says no one will know the outcome for a few months, but he expects the political pressure to continue.

  “I don't think the rhetoric dies down, Steve, after the election because I think that, you know, you have a bipartisan issue as it relates to these data center builds.”at 18:02

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal Media

  Only about 400 US data centers exist versus roughly 1,200 planned, so many planned builds will not happen.

  Nathan cites a guest's figure: about 400 US data centers exist, with around 1,200 planned. He argues that many of the planned builds will not happen, and asks what that means for the rest of the economy and for the capital committed to them. The implication is that the buildout pipeline is overstated.

  “there's like something like 1,200 that are planned to be built. And a lot of those Here in The US. In The US. And a lot of those won't be built.”at 18:26

• David Rosenberg · Rosenberg Research

  Data center postponements would cut GDP growth about 0.7 points, a significant slowdown but not a recession alone.

  Rosenberg says the data center cancellations and postponements already being planned for next year, which Larry Fink has pointed to, are a standalone drag. With multiplier effects he estimates they knock about seven tenths off GDP growth. With the current run rate near 2%, that means a significant growth downturn, but not an outright recession on its own. Other shocks would have to occur.

  “and postponements already for next year in these data center plans, and as a standalone event, and look, there are multiplier impacts, it'll knock about seven tenths off of GDP growth. So the run rate on GDP right now is around 2%.”at 36:26

• Stuart Kaiser · Citi

  Hyperscaler capex slowdown reflects power bottlenecks and government pushback, not weak returns.

  Kaiser argues that when you talk about a slowdown in capex, you need to ask why. Hyperscalers are not slowing build-outs because they lack money or doubt the return on invested capital. They are slowing because of bottlenecks, especially power, and government pushback. Those are different things, and they are not bailing on the investment because it is a bad one.

  “Okay, these hyperscalers are not slowing down build out because they lack the money, or they don't think there's the return on invested capital attached to it, right? They're slowing down spending because there are bottlenecks and government pushback.”at 45:04

Credit markets

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  The rapid rate move will hit credit; early stress shows in triple-C debt, with the broader credit reaction still to come.

  Seymour argues that a velocity move in rates, as seen this year, must have a credit impact. The market has not yet had a broad credit reaction, though stress has begun in triple-C debt. He links this to the speculative and highly enthusiastic far end of the market, where money has looked unlimited. He expects rate pressure to hit weaker borrowers hardest.

  “When you have a velocity move in rates the way we had, it's going to also have an impact from a credit perspective. We're... We haven't even really had a credit reaction, although we've seen it begin in triple c.”at 3:29

• David Rosenberg · Rosenberg Research

  Financial conditions have tightened about 140bp in three months across dollar, spreads, and rates.

  Rosenberg looks at a composite of financial conditions: the dollar, credit spreads, the equity and debt cost of capital, and general interest rates including mortgage rates. Together they have tightened 140 basis points in just the past three months, which he calls a dramatic tightening that could build momentum for the bearish narrative.

  “We are seeing a dramatic financial and tightening conditions... when you look at what the dollar's done, you look at what credit spreads done, the equity and debt cost of capital, and the general level of interest rates, including mortgage rates, they've tightened 140 basis points just in the past three months.”at 40:57

US Treasuries & yields

• Chris White · BondCliQ

  Oversupply of AI hyperscaler bonds is pushing up yields for all borrowers, including the US government.

  White argues that Microsoft, the only triple-A hyperscaler, sets the spread benchmark for the whole AI-hyperscaler group, so its pricing decisions matter widely. The surge in AI-linked issuance is starting to spill into the government's own borrowing costs, and he notes White House concern about long-term yields. Investors will demand higher yields from all borrowers, including the US government, because of this oversupply, and that is what he thinks is hitting the whole market.

  “the oversupply is starting to, I think, even bleed into the ability for the US government to raise capital at a good deal. We're obviously hearing comments coming out of the White House that they're concerned about long term yields.”at 15:34

• Stuart Kaiser · Citi

  Heavy investment-grade AI credit issuance is spilling into Treasuries through hedging the market cannot easily absorb.

  Kaiser says government bond investors told him that investment-grade credit issuance is affecting the Treasury market. A year ago he would have called that a joke. About half of this issuance gets hedged, so $250 billion of issuance means about $125 billion of hedges, typically in five- and ten-year Treasuries. This is all incremental, and the market is not used to absorbing this type of credit supply. He sees it as a supply-demand imbalance that pushes spreads wider regardless of the revenue story.

  “I was very surprised talking to government bond investors that IG credit issuance is actually impacting the government bond market... about half of this stuff gets hedged, so if you're issuing $250,000,000,000, you're hedging 125,000,000,000 of that”at 17:07

Banks

• Chris McGratty · KBW (Keefe, Bruyette & Woods)

  Banks' AI build-out exposure is mainly volume-driven capital markets activity, not balance-sheet bad debt.

  McGratty says the financials are all levered and cyclical, so a stall in the AI build-out would matter. But banks are no longer holding the debt on their balance sheets as they did in prior cycles. The exposure is therefore mainly about volume in capital markets activity, such as IPO fees and underwriting. He does not expect that to become a bad-debt problem, which he calls the ultimate kiss of death for a bank.

  “the banks aren't holding the debt on their balance sheet like they were in prior cycles. So it's more of a volume capital markets activity conversation.”at 28:12

• Stuart Kaiser · Citi

  Large-cap banks look attractive into earnings after selling off on low expectations, though credit and IPO headwinds persist.

  Kaiser likes the large-cap banks heading into earnings because they have sold off so much and expectations were low. But he sees fundamental challenges in several directions. Credit risk is rising, IPO activity has slowed, market volumes have eased, and higher rates weigh on the sector. He thinks the first earnings reports largely met a low bar, though that was not true for everyone.

  “Look, actually like the large cap banks coming into earnings just because they had sold off so much and expectations were low, but they face challenges in a number of directions right now.”at 28:49

US stock market outlook

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal Media

  Mega-cap tech rebounds may be investors chasing their tails, and these names could drive a material market sell-off.

  Nathan notes that Microsoft and Meta fell about 30% from their all-time highs before rebounding on signs of AI use cases: Copilot uptake and Meta's Muse. Microsoft lost and regained about a trillion dollars of market cap within six months. That suggests investors are chasing their tails. Because these bigger names are near their highs, Nathan thinks they could turn a small S&P pullback into a sell-off of material size.

  “Microsoft and Meta were both down about 30 some percent from their all time highs... so it seems like investors are just chasing their tails a little bit.”at 9:48

US growth & recession risk

• David Rosenberg · Rosenberg Research

  An AI and mega-cap tech selloff could trigger a wealth-effect hit to spending and a bear market.

  Rosenberg says the AI and mega-cap tech trade has been holding the stock market together. Its biggest economic stimulus over the past year has been the savings rate falling from 5.5% toward 4%, driven by the AI-linked stock rally. If mega-cap tech rolls over and drags other markets, the negative wealth effect on high-end spending could follow. A bear market is not a relic of the past, and with consumers as 70% of the economy there is no recession without consumer weakness.

  “what if that starts to roll over, so many other parts of the markets rolled over and you get that negative wealth effect on spending at the high end, has been the glue.”at 36:56

AI bubble & tech valuations

• David Rosenberg · Rosenberg Research

  We're in a bubble, but it's investor behavior, not technology, and credit stress usually shows first.

  Rosenberg says he believes the market is in a bubble. The bubble is not in the technology itself but in investor behavior. Stresses usually start in the credit market, and he sees that happening now. He also argues that investors are doing the arithmetic on AI capex, a spending binge now with return payback later, and that the narrative has the potential to build momentum.

  “we are in a bubble, okay, and the bubble is never in the technology, but it is in investor behavior, and the stresses usually start in the credit market, and we are seeing that”at 40:37

US inflation

• David Rosenberg · Rosenberg Research

  US inflation won't be sustained; negative real wages will weigh on consumer spending.

  Rosenberg does not see a sustained inflationary future. Money supply data, housing and the labor market do not show the inflation seen in 2021-2022. Work-based wages fell about 0.5% month over month, so real wages are turning negative. That will hit consumer spending, which is about 70% of the economy. With a lag, the non-food and energy part of CPI should deflate.

  “I have a tough time believing that we're going into a sustained inflationary future. I'm not seeing it in the money supply data nearly the extent we did in 2021, 2022. I'm not seeing it in the housing market, not seeing the labor market.”at 41:33

US rates & the Fed

• David Rosenberg · Rosenberg Research

  Fed tightening against this supply-driven inflation would generate a recession; it is not demand-led.

  Rosenberg argues the inflation is not homegrown, demand-led inflation from an overheating economy, so the Fed cannot simply adjust the temperature to reach a soft landing. Everyone wants the Fed to tighten, but fighting a supply shock with tightening cannot be done without generating a recession, and that is not in anyone's mind right now.

  “this is not homegrown demand led inflation. This is not about an overheating economy where the Fed can just adjust the temperature and get to a soft landing. Tightening policy... Everybody thinks that he could fight a supply shock. You won't be able to do that without generating a recession”at 42:30

Power demand & the grid

• Stuart Kaiser · Citi

  Power bottleneck is the hardest medium-term constraint to fix; still bullish on power generation.

  Kaiser says his firm is very bullish on the power generation trade in general. It took some off ahead of the elections because of headline risk. He believes the power bottleneck is probably the single hardest bottleneck to fix in the medium term, so the firm still likes the trade. The election-related headline risk is the reason it pulled back.

  “I think the power bottleneck is probably the single hardest bottleneck to fix medium term. So we still like it, but, again, running into the election, I agree. The headline risk is not good”at 45:27