Speaker · Updated
Stuart Kaiser: latest market views
Citi
Summary
Stuart Kaiser, CFA, is Head of Equity Trading Strategy at Citi, which he joined in late 2022 after leading equity derivatives research at UBS and earlier working at Goldman Sachs and Tudor.
Chorus has 10 views from Stuart Kaiser across 2 episodes on CNBC Power Lunch and CNBC Fast Money since October 14, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Apple.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- AppleBullish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Citi likes the AI power trade fundamentally but exited in September because of political headline risk.
Kaiser says his team likes the power generation and AI power trade. It sold that position in September because political headline risk was too high to bear. Kaiser also argues that the power trade was among the areas held back by the election, so it is a candidate for election-relief buying.
“we love the power gen trade, the AI power trade. We took that off back in September just because we viewed the political headline risk as just too much to bear.”at 3:38
CNBC Power Lunch: Midterm Market Rally, Texas Data Center Fallout & Crypto Regulation ·
Strong earnings growth is the only thing shielding equities from wider credit spreads, higher yields and oil.
Companies are posting double-digit EPS growth year on year and the economy is solid, with unemployment at 4.2%. Kaiser says this growth is the only thing that has offset wider credit spreads, higher yields and higher oil prices. Clients are worried that EPS growth slowing sharply next year leaves the market exposed to those pressures, and that heavy demand for capital is widening credit spreads while earnings decelerate.
“That growth story is the only thing that's been protecting equity markets from wider credit spreads, higher yields and higher oil prices, right?”at 4:49
CNBC Power Lunch: Midterm Market Rally, Texas Data Center Fallout & Crypto Regulation ·
Oil is a secondary risk for equity markets, behind yields, credit spreads and financing demands.
Macro investors rank oil as the number one risk, but equity investors have been burned by oil scares several times and now place it third or fourth. Higher yields, wider credit spreads and financing demands rank above it. Kaiser says oil is a secondary risk for equities at this point.
“So I do think oil is sort of a secondary risk for equity markets at this point.”at 9:51
CNBC Power Lunch: Midterm Market Rally, Texas Data Center Fallout & Crypto Regulation ·
Market sentiment, positioning & volatility
Post-election stock rally is a positioning-driven relief rally, as investors were under-positioned.
Polls and prediction markets had already signalled a Democratic sweep, so the bad news was largely priced in beforehand. Once the result was known, investors who were under-positioned moved back into equities, and Kaiser calls the move a positioning-driven relief rally rather than a change in the outlook. He notes the rally is still avoiding the sectors most hurt by the election.
“I think this was a positioning driven relief rally.”at 10:15
CNBC Power Lunch: Midterm Market Rally, Texas Data Center Fallout & Crypto Regulation ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Hyperscaler AI spending looks durable, so CoreWeave worries assume a spending stop not yet in sight.
Kaiser calls this a trickle-down EPS story: hyperscaler spending flows through the rest of the market and creates earnings growth elsewhere. Worrying about CoreWeave therefore means worrying that this spending spigot gets turned off. He does not think that has happened yet. Hyperscalers will likely defend the spending as high-return over the next few weeks. Top-tier borrowers still trade at tight 75 basis point credit spreads, and they are committed to the spending. Betting against it is dangerous right now.
“So if you're worried about CoreWeave, then you're effectively worried that that spigot, you know, ultimately kind of gets turned off. I don't think we're there yet.”at 6:47
CNBC Fast Money: AI Debt Concerns Grip Market… And Bank Of America’s Rough Day 10/14/26 ·
Heavy investment-grade AI credit issuance is spilling into Treasuries through hedging the market cannot easily absorb.
Kaiser says government bond investors told him that investment-grade credit issuance is affecting the Treasury market. A year ago he would have called that a joke. About half of this issuance gets hedged, so $250 billion of issuance means about $125 billion of hedges, typically in five- and ten-year Treasuries. This is all incremental, and the market is not used to absorbing this type of credit supply. He sees it as a supply-demand imbalance that pushes spreads wider regardless of the revenue story.
“I was very surprised talking to government bond investors that IG credit issuance is actually impacting the government bond market... about half of this stuff gets hedged, so if you're issuing $250,000,000,000, you're hedging 125,000,000,000 of that”at 17:07
CNBC Fast Money: AI Debt Concerns Grip Market… And Bank Of America’s Rough Day 10/14/26 ·
Large-cap banks look attractive into earnings after selling off on low expectations, though credit and IPO headwinds persist.
Kaiser likes the large-cap banks heading into earnings because they have sold off so much and expectations were low. But he sees fundamental challenges in several directions. Credit risk is rising, IPO activity has slowed, market volumes have eased, and higher rates weigh on the sector. He thinks the first earnings reports largely met a low bar, though that was not true for everyone.
“Look, actually like the large cap banks coming into earnings just because they had sold off so much and expectations were low, but they face challenges in a number of directions right now.”at 28:49
CNBC Fast Money: AI Debt Concerns Grip Market… And Bank Of America’s Rough Day 10/14/26 ·
AppleBullish
Apple is a defensive large-cap winner with less AI exposure, favored in the current big-is-safe market.
Kaiser admits the valuation is high. He still prefers the bigger stocks because of credit risk and spending concerns. Apple has less AI exposure than the rest of the Magnificent Seven, which helps it now. He argues that big is winning, big is better, and big is safe, and that this benefits Apple. He wants large-cap growth going into earnings.
“Apple probably has a little bit less AI exposure than the rest of the mag segment, which is probably probably helping them right now... I think that large cap growth is where we want to be going into earnings.”at 33:20
CNBC Fast Money: AI Debt Concerns Grip Market… And Bank Of America’s Rough Day 10/14/26 ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Hyperscaler capex slowdown reflects power bottlenecks and government pushback, not weak returns.
Kaiser argues that when you talk about a slowdown in capex, you need to ask why. Hyperscalers are not slowing build-outs because they lack money or doubt the return on invested capital. They are slowing because of bottlenecks, especially power, and government pushback. Those are different things, and they are not bailing on the investment because it is a bad one.
“Okay, these hyperscalers are not slowing down build out because they lack the money, or they don't think there's the return on invested capital attached to it, right? They're slowing down spending because there are bottlenecks and government pushback.”at 45:04
CNBC Fast Money: AI Debt Concerns Grip Market… And Bank Of America’s Rough Day 10/14/26 ·
Power bottleneck is the hardest medium-term constraint to fix; still bullish on power generation.
Kaiser says his firm is very bullish on the power generation trade in general. It took some off ahead of the elections because of headline risk. He believes the power bottleneck is probably the single hardest bottleneck to fix in the medium term, so the firm still likes the trade. The election-related headline risk is the reason it pulled back.
“I think the power bottleneck is probably the single hardest bottleneck to fix medium term. So we still like it, but, again, running into the election, I agree. The headline risk is not good”at 45:27
CNBC Fast Money: AI Debt Concerns Grip Market… And Bank Of America’s Rough Day 10/14/26 ·
Shows
- CNBC Power Lunch · 1 episode
- CNBC Fast Money · 1 episode
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