Market’s Post-Election Surge… And Prognosis For Pharma, Health Care After Midterms 11/4/26

McDonald's

Across the shows: 6 speakers in other episodes, 5 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementBullish

  Results were better than feared; the longer-term reinvestment strategy is getting priced in.

  Garcia says the stock is down 8% this year but has risen since the company introduced its new strategy to reinvest across its franchises. She sees the results as a better-than-feared story with the consumer. The market is pricing in a better-than-expected outcome and a longer-term strategy, and she hopes the turnaround continues.

  “this wasn't as bad as we hoped, and we have a longer term strategy. And that's just getting priced in here.”at 43:52

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Results were fine and comps are easy; McDonald's changes are positive, and he is adding to his stake.

  Seymour says the numbers were fine and the comparisons make it easy for McDonald's going forward. He sees a change in the air at McDonald's that may be positive, including a turnover in the quality conversation and store operations. He acknowledges the stock is sensitive to gas prices and interest rates. He owns the stock and is adding here.

  “the comps make it kind of easy for them going forward... I own the stock and I'm adding here.”at 44:06

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.Bullish

  Franchisees following the 10-items-under-$3 pricing plan outperformed; the value push is correct.

  Grasso says franchisees that followed the 10-items-under-$3 pricing plan outperformed, while about a third did not and got burned. In a value-driven consumer environment the plan works. He says the drive-thru is 70% of sales and investment, including AI, helps there. He calls the earlier weakness an unforced error and thinks the company's response is correct.

  “The franchisees that adhere to their pricing plan outperformed the ones that didn't.”at 44:38

Qualcomm

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementBullish

  Qualcomm's diversification away from handsets is not yet priced in; buy on weakness, not a chase.

  Garcia says investors want to see diversification away from handsets into automotive, infrastructure and AI data centers, but aren't believing it yet. So the diversification isn't priced in. If she believes the long-term shift will happen, she would buy weakness this week, but not chase the stock here.

  “We need to see whether it's automotive, it's infrastructure, it's the AI data center space... investors aren't believing it yet... So I wouldn't be chasing it here. I would be a buyer on this week.”at 21:10

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.Bullish

  Qualcomm already re-rated without handsets; the selloff is a buying opportunity.

  Grasso points out that automotive is up 89% and IoT is less so, but together they're about 40% of revenue. He argues the stock has already re-rated without the phone business. He is a buyer on weakness even after the drop of roughly 8-9%.

  “IoT is not up as much. But together they're 40% of revenues. It's already re rated without the phone business... I'd be a buyer on weakness.”at 21:34

Amazon.com

Across the shows: 42 speakers in other episodes, 54 bullish and 10 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Karen Finerman · Metropolitan Capital AdvisorsBullish

  Likes Amazon for 40% growth; a data-center moratorium could hurt that growth.

  Finerman says the shift from picks-and-shovels to hyperscalers may be overdone, since the hyperscalers have been penalized for capex. Her main reason for liking Amazon is that it is guiding to about 40% growth and then 40% again. A data-center moratorium would be a risk to that, so she is cautious on the policy.

  “[The] positive why I like Amazon so much, for example, is because they're talking about 40% growth and then 40% growth again. What does a moratorium on data centers do to that? Maybe not so good.”at 7:26

The Home Depot

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 6 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Owns and keeps adding to Home Depot; same-store sales have bottomed and Q3 should be reasonable.

  Seymour says he has been adding to Home Depot over the last month and a half, and is comfortable owning it after a roughly 30% move. He argues same-store sales comps have hit their lows and that trend is okay. He expects third-quarter numbers, due in about a week and a half, to be reasonable though not exciting. He frames the position as investment rather than a trade.

  “I'd like to talk about Home Depot because I've been adding to Home Depot over the last month, month and a half... I'm comfortable owning Home Depot here. They report in about a week and a half and I do think those third quarter numbers are going to be reasonable.”at 25:55

Alibaba Group Holding

Across the shows: 5 speakers in other episodes, 4 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Karen Finerman · Metropolitan Capital AdvisorsBullish

  Alibaba is incredibly cheap; long for years, though it is now cash-flow negative.

  Finerman says she has held Alibaba for a long time, buying it at both lower and higher prices. She calls it incredibly cheap. She notes a caveat: like the hyperscalers' focus on AI, Alibaba is now cash-flow negative, which tempers the valuation argument.

  “I've been [long] BABA for a long time, from lower, from higher. It's incredibly cheap. Although, just like the hyperscalers here, the focus on AI, they're also now cash flow negative.”at 31:56

CVS Health

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jared Holz · Mizuho SecuritiesUncertain

  CVS breakup looks like a pre-emptive move ahead of tougher PBM regulation; value now hinges on sum of parts.

  Holz says the breakup surprised analysts. He thinks it reflects legal pressure from states on PBM and retail pharmacy relationships. He reads it as CVS getting ahead of a more cumbersome political and regulatory environment by splitting up first. He says the question now is what each business is worth on a sum-of-the-parts basis.

  “This could be the company getting in front of what they think is gonna be a more cumbersome environment politically and from a regulatory standpoint, and so breaking up before that.”at 36:03

Novo Nordisk A/S

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jared Holz · Mizuho SecuritiesNeutral

  Novo needs a pipeline beyond Wegovy and the pill to lift the stock; CagriSema seen as unlikely to do it.

  Holz says the Street wants to see pipeline progress or some sign of life beyond Wegovy and the oral pill. He doubts CagriSema will do that, as most people don't think it will. He says Novo may need other obesity drugs or moves outside its core franchise, and that the stock needs pipeline news to reach the next level. He thinks the earnings release was good but that this is what matters next.

  “Still think the street wants to see a pipeline or some semblance of life beyond Wegovy and the and the pill.”at 37:17

Eli Lilly and Company

Across the shows: 11 speakers in other episodes, 10 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBearish

  Lilly has been bulletproof but is probably too crowded, so the stock looks like a fade.

  Seymour says Lilly has been bulletproof, which is why it is now probably overweight in portfolios. He puts Lilly among the names in a healthcare run that has gone too far, and says the day is where investors should begin fading that move in healthcare.

  “[Lilly's] been so bulletproof, but it's probably so overweight.”at 39:21

Bitcoin

Across the shows: 27 speakers in other episodes, 19 bullish and 13 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Bitcoin's case rests on blockchain technology, which is not going away even as it is regulated.

  Seymour says the Clarity Act's failure does not kill the technology. The reason to own Bitcoin is less about the Bitcoin product and more about the blockchain technology, which is here, is not going anywhere, and is being regulated. He also says Bitcoin rallying alongside gold was appropriate.

  “But what's not dead is the technology... the reason to own Bitcoin is less about the product Bitcoin than it is about the blockchain and the technology.”at 42:37

Pharma & biotech

• Jared Holz · Mizuho Securities

  Large-cap pharma is overdone to the upside, given Democrats' adversarial stance on drug pricing.

  Holz says large-cap pharma looks overdone to the upside. Democrats have typically been adversarial on drug pricing. The IRA and Trump's policies have already accomplished a lot, but Democrats could return to drug pricing at some point, which makes the rally look excessive.

  “I actually think large cap [pharma] is overdone to the upside. Given the fact that democrats typically are fairly adversarial from a drug pricing standpoint.”at 35:40

• Jared Holz · Mizuho Securities

  Pharma now trades richer than tech for the first time in twenty years, so he has backed away.

  Holz cites a valuation fact: pharma is trading more expensive than tech for the first time in twenty years. On that basis he has backed away from pharma and prefers medtech, where he sees better value and a catch-up case.

  “pharma is trading more expensive than tech for the first time in twenty years. So I backed away from pharma. Would look at med tech.”at 38:45

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  After the sector's 35% run from May, healthcare has places to fade; valuations are difficult at the high end.

  Seymour says healthcare has rallied about 35% since May, and part of the rotation into it has been extraordinary. The rally was interest-rate sensitive. He says some names are overweight and at some point valuations become difficult at the high end. He names Novo, Pfizer and Bristol Myers as names to fade. He thinks the day's move is overdone on the upside, though he still likes Gilead.

  “after a 35% move off of May is I think there are places to fade. I think part of this rotation has been extraordinary.”at 39:08

US Treasuries & yields

• Ben Emons · FedWatch Advisors

  The 10-year yield bottomed near 4.81%, and should rise again with December hike odds up.

  Emmons says 4.81% is a big support level for the 10-year yield, which he thinks has bottomed there and should move back up. He cites rising odds of a December rate hike. He views the current rates move as a brief reaction to the election, with the strong economy ahead likely to push yields higher again.

  “I think $4.81 is a big support level on the ten year. I think he bottomed out there and it should go back upwards, because I did notice that also the odds for a rate hike in December actually went back up again.”at 15:11

• Ben Emons · FedWatch Advisors

  Smaller 10- and 30-year auction sizes in refunding would have a big impact on long yields.

  Emmons says the refunding language hints the Treasury may shift issuance away from long-end bonds, with fewer low-end bonds and bills. He notes the debt ceiling is approaching and that it shapes the Treasury's plans. If it cuts 10- and 30-year auction sizes, he says, that would have a big impact.

  “We know that if they do bring those auction sizes a little bit down, say for the ten year and thirty year, that will have a big impact.”at 16:43

US housing

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.

  Housing needs mortgage rates near 5.5%; most buyers won't buy above that level.

  Grasso says about half the country has mortgages below 4% and 80% are below 6%. He claims roughly 70% of people won't consider buying a house with a mortgage rate above 5.5%, so 5.5% is the golden rate. He argues rates must comply for the housing market to really move, and homebuilders and Home Depot bottomed on October 5, the same day the 10-year yield peaked.

  “So the golden rate is 5.5%... 70% of people will not even think about buying a house above 5.5% mortgage.”at 25:06

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  Homebuilders still look good on a structural housing shortage, though not on tariff and immigration news.

  Garcia says there is structurally not enough housing, and high rates keep existing owners from listing homes. That shortage is a problem regardless of policy. She still likes the homebuilders, but would not buy them because of the immigration and tariff headlines driving today's move.

  “this is structurally there's not enough housing to go around right now... I do still like the homebuilders, but I wouldn't do it specifically on immigration and tariffs, which is what's happening today.”at 27:25

International equities

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Buy European banks, China tech and Latin America; ceasefire, weaker oil and dollar are tailwinds.

  Seymour links the rally abroad to a Congress change and a more conciliatory tone with Europe, plus a possible ceasefire that caps oil. A weaker dollar adds to the tailwind, and these trades were already oversold after being at relative highs before the war. He recommends European banks, China tech, and Latin America, including Brazil, and says tariffs remaining in place is fine.

  “If you think there's a ceasefire or something close to it, or at least we're capping oil prices... you're buying Europe... I think you should be buying European banks. I think you should be buying China Tech.”at 30:04

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  Foreign growth is strong and commodity economies benefit from lower energy prices; own international exposure.

  Garcia says growth expectations abroad have been impressive even with oil prices higher. Lower energy prices would benefit these economies, and a continued AI data-center buildout would help commodity-driven economies. She sees the rally as improving the case for owning international exposure.

  “if you look at growth expectations abroad, they've actually been very impressive even when oil prices have been higher. So if energy prices do, in fact, come down, that is going to benefit them.”at 32:07

Healthcare system & insurers

• Jared Holz · Mizuho Securities

  Managed care and provider moves are misaligned with fundamentals; flows into health care drove the rally.

  Holz says providers and hospitals rallied on the premise of more patients and exchanges returning, and managed care would typically come in with them. Yet most managed care names other than CVS traded better, so the groups moved together, which he finds odd. He attributes it to fund flows out of tech into health care as a defensive or value sector, rather than fundamentals.

  “typically you wouldn't have all the categories work in tandem, and they did. [I] think something's just a little bit off. Part of that is just the fund flows outside of tech coming into health care as a defensive or value oriented sector.”at 35:18

• Jared Holz · Mizuho Securities

  Medtech is the healthcare lagger worth buying; device stocks near multi-year lows with flat or falling procedure volumes.

  Holz says medical device stocks are at or near multi-year lows. Procedure volume trends have been flat or negative, and there has been little innovation. He says medtech is the last part of healthcare to perform well. If investors believe more patients will enter the funnel and consumerism plays out, he would own medtech, picking names selectively. He also says he doubts that regulation from the past couple of years will be overturned soon.

  “those medical device stocks that are at or near multi year lows. Because the procedure volume trends have been either flat or negative. There hasn't been that much innovation.”at 38:00

Stablecoins & crypto policy

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.

  Clarity Act is effectively dead; without legislation, CFTC rules can be reversed and crypto is capped.

  Grasso says the Clarity Act is all but dead after it failed a cloture vote in September by 11 votes, falling short of the 60 needed. The Trump administration moved to write a regulatory framework through the CFTC instead. He argues that without a legislative roadmap, a future administration can throw that out. Investors need a longer horizon than the current framework allows, so he sees a lid on crypto.

  “So the Clarity Act is all but dead. ... So if you don't have the roadmap, there's a lid put on crypto.”at 41:02

• Karen Finerman · Metropolitan Capital Advisors

  Agrees Clarity is dead and crypto legislation will be hard; the market's crypto rally surprised her.

  Finerman agrees the Clarity Act is dead and says it will take a lot to get anything else done. She notes that many Democrats are pro-crypto, but she was surprised by the market's positive reaction to crypto given the setback.

  “I was surprised that the reaction was this in the market, because I agree clarity is dead, and it's gonna take a lot to get something else done.”at 42:28

AI chips & semiconductors

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Semis are interesting now; parts of the semiconductor trade are worth buying despite weak SMH technicals.

  Seymour says not all semis were rallying or selling off, with memory names diverging. He argues that the market has wanted to buy semis for a long time and missed the trade. Even though he dislikes the chart of the SMH semiconductor ETF, he thinks parts of the trade are worth buying now.

  “I do think it's getting very interesting in semiconductor life... I don't love the SMH here, I do think there are parts of that trade you want to be buying today.”at 5:43

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Karen Finerman · Metropolitan Capital Advisors

  Election certainty removes uncertainty, which markets dislike more than bad news; a big deal.

  Finerman says markets hate uncertainty far more than bad news. The settled election result, combined with a big move in oil and rates, creates a set of positives. That explains why the market rose this much, although she doesn't know whether the gain will stick.

  “I think markets hate uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty way more than they hate bad news. So the lack of uncertainty now, the certainty of what's happened... I think that is a really big deal.”at 6:44

US stock market outlook

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.

  Buy the market; a Republican president with Democratic Congress is the best setup in twelve months.

  Grasso says the market was offside and short covering drove the rally, but the trade shouldn't be all-or-nothing. With rates coming down, corporate debt looks less burdensome. Using historical averages, he says a Republican president with a Democratic Congress is the best setup about twelve months out, so he would buy the market.

  “I would be a buyer of the market... Republican president and a Democrat Congress when it flips a Democrat... is the best set up twelve months out.”at 9:40

Banks

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.

  Warren taking over banking can't do much; presidential veto limits populist bank-regulation threats.

  Grasso says Elizabeth Warren taking over the banking committee can't do much. She could call bank CEOs to Congress to testify, but the president would veto anything he doesn't want. He flags credit card fees and credit rating agencies as populist areas where the two overlap that bank investors should watch.

  “So Elizabeth Warren taking over the helm for the banking sector, she can't do anything. She could call those CEOs to congress. They could testify, but he'll veto anything that he doesn't want to be done.”at 9:57

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  Data-center pullback is a slowdown, not the end of AI; data centers will still get built out.

  Garcia argues that a possible local pushback on data centers, such as in Texas, slows the buildout rather than ending it. She says she would treat the selloff in these names as a buying opportunity, and sees the short-term concern as temporary and long-term build-out as certain.

  “But I think this is more of a slowdown than an end of AI. Don't think we're not going to see these data centers getting built out.”at 11:07

Power demand & the grid

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  Energy names benefit from electrification and tight supply even if AI data-center buildout slows.

  Garcia says energy infrastructure names are negative today, but electrification and a lack of energy supply will persist even with less data-center buildout. She calls that bipartisan support, so these trends should happen either way. She says she liked energy names before data centers became the trade to own.

  “People are negative on that today. But even if you don't have as much of an AI data center build out, you still have the electrification that's happening and the lack of demand for or lack of supply for energy overall.”at 11:27

Gold & precious metals

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Gold's rally was overdone; its fundamentals did not change overnight.

  Seymour argues gold's fundamentals did not change overnight. The move reflected a repricing tied to a possibly weaker dollar, lower oil and less inflation. He judges the move overdone, implying the rally was driven by sentiment rather than a fundamental shift.

  “The fundamentals of gold didn't really change overnight... Gold was overdone. I mean, it just was.”at 12:00

Nuclear energy

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Nuclear is a structural, secular trade, not just a data-center play.

  Seymour says the nuclear trade is part of the energy trade and a longer-term play. He argues it is structural and thematic, not just a reaction to data-center demand, so it should be treated as a durable theme.

  “And I think along that is the nuclear trade, which is part of the energy trade as far as I'm concerned... It's truly a structural, thematic, secular trade. It's not just hey data center, let's go buy nuclear.”at 12:12

Oil & fuels

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Brent's plunge signals ceasefire hopes and a lasting tailwind for rate-sensitive assets.

  Seymour says Brent fell from 118 to 94 in three sessions, which he reads as the oil market pricing a ceasefire. He says it may ease inflation and interest rates. Even with an uncertain ceasefire, he sees a continuing tailwind from lower oil for interest-rate-sensitive trades that began about three weeks earlier.

  “We've gone from 118 to 94 on Brent in three sessions... I still think there is some positive tailwind to what's going on with oil prices. We don't really know what's going to happen with the ceasefire.”at 12:38

US rates & the Fed

• Ben Emons · FedWatch Advisors

  Hot CPI and PPI data will set up a December Fed meeting focused on price stability.

  Emmons says next week's CPI and PPI data will still be relatively hot. He argues the data sets up the December Fed meeting, which will remain focused on price stability. He says the Fed is on the sidelines watching how the election and legislation play out before it responds.

  “That data will still be relatively hot. I think that sets up the December meeting, and that will still be the key focus for [the Fed] to put out price stability.”at 17:56

US elections & politics

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  Gridlock is best for healthcare; post-election health care rally shouldn't be chased until a Democratic president.

  Garcia argues gridlock is the best outcome for the sector because the post-election changes could be a lot. She notes Trump can veto anything, so she doesn't expect much to change. She says something real would only change in healthcare under a Democratic president. Until then, she would not chase today's post-election move in healthcare.

  “the best thing that can happen here is gridlock... Until we actually have a Democratic president, that's when something really changes in this space. So barring that, I think this move specifically today after the election, I wouldn't be chasing them.”at 39:58