Amazon and Intel Report Results… And Alphabet’s Post-Earnings Plunge 10/30/26

Alphabet

Across the shows: 42 speakers in other episodes, 32 bullish and 21 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.Bearish

  Alphabet is doing the wrong thing: capex is accelerating while ad revenue decelerates.

  Steve says cloud growth above 100% is what excites people about Google, but capex is accelerating while ad revenue is decelerating. He calls this doing the wrong thing. Combined with two quarters of negative free cash flow, the spending is not paying off in the core business.

  “when you also look at it, CapEx is accelerating and then their ad revenue is decelerating. So it's doing the wrong thing.”at 9:21

• Guy Adami · CNBCBearish

  Alphabet's search business faces renewed existential AI risk; he will wait for the selloff to settle.

  Guy says the support level from the past year was violated after earnings, so he had hoped for a high-volume washout but has not seen it. Conversations about the existential risk to the search business, which were raised about a year and a half ago, are happening again. Until the smoke settles he will stay out.

  “the existential risk to their search business, which was talked about a year and a half ago, those conversations are having again... I'm going to wait for the smoke to settle.”at 33:22

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLCBearish

  Alphabet broke down on a well-defined pattern; do not step in while it is still falling.

  Carter says the stock fell about 13% this week on heavy turnover of roughly 140 million shares and broke down on a well-defined pattern. He argues weakness is foreshadowed in preceding price action, and that stocks like Alphabet were weak for months beforehand. He advises waiting for the dust to settle rather than buying.

  “It broke down on a well defined pattern... it's usually better to let the dust settle. I would not step in here”at 33:45

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Alphabet's selloff is overdone; it can monetize AI search as it did classic search.

  Seymour's argument is based on Alphabet's track record. Google figured out how to monetize search, so it should be able to monetize AI search too. He therefore thinks the recent drop in the stock is overdone. He gives no numbers.

  “If Google can figure out... If they figured out how to monetize search, I think they can figure out how to monetize AI search. I think this is overdone.”at 46:39

Bitcoin

Across the shows: 14 speakers in other episodes, 9 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Matt Hougan · Bitwise Asset ManagementBullish

  The hack leaves Bitcoin's long-term direction unchanged and prices should recover within a week.

  Hougan argues the hack was a traditional cybersecurity breach. The blockchain, ETF assets and cold-storage wallets were not compromised. Part of the day's pullback came from a broader risk-off move, with the Nasdaq down 3% and Intel down 30%. Historically, hacks have not had a lasting effect on prices, and he expects Bitcoin to recover within a week. He also says crypto is maturing, citing institutional ETFs and the move onshore into regulated US markets.

  “This has not changed anything about the long term direction of Bitcoin. And in fact, I think in a week, you'll see, you know, prices have moved beyond this and and recovered from this.”at 41:50

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.Bullish

  Bitcoin's muted selloff after the hack shows the market is maturing; holders can keep coins in cold storage.

  Grasso says Bitcoin did not sell off much after the hack, which he takes as a sign that the market is maturing. Because users are being made whole, holders should feel confident keeping their coins in place. He advises that coins not being traded should be held in cold storage, since cold storage was not compromised.

  “Bitcoin not selling off to a larger extent, I think is a mature market.”at 42:31

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.Bearish

  Markets are underpricing quantum risk, which could break Bitcoin's security; timing is unclear.

  Grasso says the market is too myopic about cybersecurity and quantum computing. He thinks quantum could break Bitcoin's cryptography, and that is the risk he is most focused on. He does not know how far away that is, and he gives no evidence on timing. The hack is a separate issue because the attackers did not need quantum to succeed.

  “But I do believe that the market is so myopic on cybersecurity, on quantum. And if quantum can break Bitcoin, that's the problem I'm looking at.”at 42:52

Intel

Across the shows: 11 speakers in other episodes, 4 bullish and 8 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Guy Adami · CNBCBearish

  Intel's fundamental business never justified the valuation the market paid for it.

  Guy says the desk has pointed out that Intel's fundamental business was not commensurate with the valuation or price the market was paying. The earnings miss has made investors take a critical look, which is why the stock fell so hard.

  “I think we've pointed out that the fundamental business of intel... was not commensurate with the valuation or the price that the market was paying for.”at 2:36

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBearish

  Intel's rally was a macro CPU story, not company-specific, and the stock was always expensive.

  Tim argues Intel's move from 40 to 120 was a macro story about CPUs and a company coming back from the dead, not evidence of a well-run business. He says Intel has always been expensive and cannot fill data-center AI orders. Weak PC CPU demand was already known, so the post-earnings drop is a reset.

  “to me, Intel's move from 40 to one twenty was a macro story. It was a CPU story. It wasn't an Intel story other than Intel back from the dead”at 7:41

Apple

Across the shows: 15 speakers in other episodes, 5 bullish and 13 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Apple's September quarter will be great, though the December quarter is a tougher call.

  Seymour says Apple has digested the memory price rises. He argues the September quarter was boosted by a pull-forward of demand ahead of price hikes, but still expects it to be strong. He is less sure about December: the comparison is tough, and the iPhone 18 and Pro Max are not selling as well as expected. He does not think this is a make-or-break quarter. His main risk is that Apple has been so strong and defensive that expectations are high.

  “I think we've digested memory prices at Apple. I'm not telling you it won't be an issue they continue to address, but I think the quarter will be great.”at 45:21

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLCBearish

  Apple's strong relative strength may end in profit-taking; sell calls and trim.

  Worth reads Apple's chart in two ways. Relative strength against falling peers is impressive, but the stock could still follow other names into profit-taking or an earnings-related drop. Given that risk, he would at least sell calls against longs and is inclined to trim the position.

  “I would, at a minimum, sell calls against longs, but I'd be inclined to trim as well.”at 46:18

Palo Alto Networks

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBearish

  Palo Alto Networks' valuation after heroic run is absurdly expensive; he trimmed it.

  Tim says cyber software still has expunging to do after heroic runs. He trimmed Palo Alto and CrowdStrike, noting that absurdly expensive valuations become a place to begin challenging a position.

  “There's still some expunging to do in certain parts of... software, maybe even cyber software... It was a day for me to trim a little bit over the last couple days in [CrowdStrike] and Palo Alto, which have had heroic runs.”at 6:36

CrowdStrike Holdings

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 5 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBearish

  CrowdStrike's valuation after heroic run is absurdly expensive and needs challenging; he trimmed it.

  Tim says software and cybersecurity still have expunging to do after heroic runs. He trimmed CrowdStrike and Palo Alto over the last couple of days. When valuations are absurdly expensive they become a place to start challenging holdings, so he is taking profits.

  “There's still some expunging to do in certain parts of... software, maybe even cyber software... It was a day for me to trim a little bit over the last couple days in [CrowdStrike] and Palo Alto, which have had heroic runs.”at 6:36

Microsoft

Across the shows: 34 speakers in other episodes, 32 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Microsoft's numbers were fine and it is in a pretty good spot.

  Tim says Microsoft's numbers were fine, citing Azure growth of 48% in constant currency, positive free cash flow and controlled capex. He also notes enterprise demand has not really gone away. He concludes Microsoft is in a pretty good spot despite the broader AI selloff.

  “I thought Microsoft's numbers were fine. Azure growth at 48% in constant currency, free cash flow positive, controlled CapEx”at 11:40

Amazon.com

Across the shows: 29 speakers in other episodes, 35 bullish and 6 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Likes Amazon's numbers and its forward AWS outlook despite the post-earnings drop.

  Tim says he likes Amazon's numbers and the forward look for AWS. He thinks the stock's post-earnings drop is not a reason to abandon the names with good cloud growth. He treats the Google situation as the one that worries investors more.

  “I like those Amazon numbers. I like the forward, at least, look we were able to get into AWS.”at 11:40

Exxon Mobil

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.Bullish

  Integrated majors like ExxonMobil have more levers and room to run than refiners.

  Steve notes ExxonMobil and Chevron are up 55% this year, versus Valero up 145% and Marathon up 175%. He says large integrated names have more levers and bandwidth, so they could run further, unlike refiners that trade as high-beta crack-spread bets.

  “And you look at the two, biggest integrated names, Chevron and Exxon, they're up 55%... It takes longer to track through in a large integrated name... Those could run further.”at 26:31

Chevron

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.Bullish

  Integrated majors like Chevron have more levers and room to run than refiners.

  Steve notes Chevron and Exxon are up 55% this year, versus Valero up 145% and Marathon up 175%. He says large integrated names take longer to track and have more levers to pull and more bandwidth. He thinks they could run further, unlike refiners, which trade as high-beta bets on crack spreads.

  “And you look at the two, biggest integrated names, Chevron and Exxon, they're up 55%... It takes longer to track through in a large integrated name... Those could run further.”at 26:31

Gilead Sciences

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Gilead's almost 7% free cash flow yield and solid core business make large-cap biotech attractive.

  Tim notes Gilead reported well, is at all-time highs and is expected to have almost a 7% free cash flow yield for the next couple of years. He says its core business is solid despite concerns about mature HIV drugs like Biktarvy. He prefers the large caps in IBB, which have doubled from last year and generate a lot of free cash flow, over the XPI.

  “Gilead who reported last night... they're gonna have almost a 7% free cash flow yield, and it's estimated to have that for the next couple of years.”at 30:45

ServiceNow

Across the shows: 8 speakers in other episodes, 6 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.Bullish

  ServiceNow is too embedded in corporate systems to be replaced by AI; he would buy.

  Steve says ServiceNow's subscription revenue rose 21% and its cash position improved, which he calls the holy grail. The AI-replacement fear is misplaced because ServiceNow is wired through all corporate systems and works as an overseeing agentic layer rather than a dashboard. He sees it as too hard to replace, so he would buy after a week-long slide and a 34% weekly drop.

  “sub revenue was actually up 21... Their cash position actually got better... They're in the innards of the company. Too hard to replace, I'd be a buyer.”at 34:13

Caterpillar

Across the shows: 6 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBearish

  Caterpillar is cyclical and heavy; do not chase despite data-center demand.

  Tim says valuation is not the issue because the stock is not expensive. The real concern is cyclicality. Data center and construction build-out still shows demand, but the question is whether projects can be completed. He calls Caterpillar a picks-and-shovels trade that still looks heavy, so he would not chase it.

  “I don't think this is one of them... It's not expensive. I think it's a case where there's cyclicality to their business that we should be more concerned about.”at 35:26

Binance

• Matt Hougan · Bitwise Asset ManagementBullish

  Binance will make users whole after the hack, given its resources and track record.

  Hougan says Binance has committed to cover all user losses and has a history of doing so. He cites its large funds and profits as evidence that it can afford the losses. Channel checks with industry peers also give him a high degree of confidence that users will be made whole. He concedes that this will only be proven once it happens.

  “I think when we do channel checks, when we talk to our peers in the industry, there's a high degree of confidence that Binance will in fact make their users whole.”at 39:23

US stock market outlook

• Kathy Entwistle · Morgan Stanley

  Morgan Stanley is more cautious because more market downside may be coming.

  Kathy says clients and contacts in real estate and other businesses have reported cracks over the past month, which is why her firm has taken a more cautious stance. She thinks there could be more to come and that this may be just the beginning. She is not ready to buy yet and plans to start easing in slowly once improvement appears.

  “So you listen sometimes to the markets... we've been taking more of a more cautious stance, and that's because we think there could be more to come. Like, this is maybe just the beginning.”at 15:24

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLC

  Market is structurally worse than the index suggests; stretched defensives can fall too.

  Carter says the S&P is only down 3% but under the surface it is worse, because rotation keeps the index flat while stocks such as Caterpillar, semiconductors and Google fall. The money rotating into staples, healthcare and Procter and Gamble has left those names stretched, so they are worse off. He also says healthcare is playing catch-up after being at 25-year relative lows versus the S&P in June, and that will likely continue.

  “I mean, the S and P is down 3% from its high. Yes, internally it's incredible. But structurally it's worse.”at 19:09

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Markets will not rise without tech and the biggest weights; the index has gone nowhere since June.

  Tim says breadth is welcome but also worrying. The market will not go higher without tech and the biggest index weights. The S&P is only 2.5% off its highs, but it has done nothing since June and is basically flat. The rotation has lasted three weeks, not just two days, and homebuilders, retail, energy, industrials and healthcare have all been hit.

  “The markets aren't going higher without tech and the biggest weightings... we've also done nothing since June. Markets are basically flat.”at 20:17

Oil & fuels

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Refining margins are at record highs and oil majors are returning cash through buybacks.

  Tim cites Chevron's refining profit of about $3.5 billion against roughly $600 million a year ago. He argues product margins have never been higher for companies that can process and have product flowing. Majors are turning free cash flow into EPS through buybacks and need not raise dividends. He sees energy as a hedge against Middle East risk and a tech hedge, though he notes the chart looks extended.

  “Oil product right now has never been higher margin, especially those that actually are in a position to process and those that actually have the product coming through.”at 24:52

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLC

  Overweight energy but sell refiners, which are overdone; integrated majors look best.

  Carter would be overweight energy, but he thinks refiners are overdone and would get out of them. The big integrated companies look best. He notes energy is up almost 60% this year yet is still only 3.9% of the S&P, which matters for the economy and jobs but not much for the index.

  “I would be overweight energy and then the question is the refiners, those are overdone and I would get out of those. And the oil services. So it is the big integrators that look the best.”at 26:03

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.

  Refiners trade as high-beta bets on record crack spreads, so they are most exposed to a reversal.

  Steve says refiners are simple: crack spreads are the whole story, and crack spreads are at historic highs. Refiners are all beta to that. If crack spreads fall, the stocks fall, so he would stay in the large integrated names.

  “When you look at a refiner, crack spreads, start a story, end of story... So if you think we're at historic highs, which we are in crack spreads, if we go down tomorrow, the stock goes down”at 26:48

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Guy Adami · CNBC

  Investors now punish heavy AI spending because big tech burns cash without visible returns.

  Guy argues the biggest tech names are probably all free-cash-flow negative right now because of heavy spending, which he calls problematic. Investors are now questioning the spend because they do not see a return on it, so spending gets punished. He says the market also punished Microsoft even after Microsoft curtailed its spending, so cutting back did not help.

  “And I think now people are starting to question, wait a second... the spend is what it is. That's a problem. You're not seeing the return on the spend. So now we're at a point where you're getting punished if you spend.”at 3:15

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.

  Hyperscalers' AI spending will be forced into discipline because its payoff is unknown and cash burn is rising.

  Steve notes Alphabet has been free-cash-flow negative for two quarters, Meta for one, and Amazon for a full year. He compares this to the AWS build-out, where the payoff was visible and the spend was a fraction of today's. Now the payoff is unknown, so he expects the market to pull back the reins and force discipline, since no company can cut spending without fearing it will fall behind peers. He also links the drop in the ten-year yield to government borrowing and AI build-out competing for the same capital.

  “Alphabet is two quarters now free cash flow negative. And then Meta is one quarter free cash flow negative. Amazon is a full year.”at 3:51

US Treasuries & yields

• Kathy Entwistle · Morgan Stanley

  Treasuries are a short-term parking place for new client money until markets recover.

  Kathy says her firm uses treasuries, along with cash and high yield, to park new client money for the short term. The aim is to take advantage of markets coming back later. Clients are not pulling money out of the markets, but new money is going to these safer holdings.

  “We will use treasuries to park new money... we're using cash, treasuries, you know, high yield for the short term in order to take advantage of markets coming back”at 16:21

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Rate-sensitive sectors sold off on rising yields and can be bought as yields stabilize.

  Tim argues the sectors that sold off were the most interest-rate sensitive. As rates fall, it makes sense to allocate money to places hurt by rising ten-year yields, provided yields have stabilized. He is looking at industrials and healthcare, where he sees better businesses.

  “I think the interest rate sensitivity to a lot of these sectors is what had them sell off. That's why as interest rates go lower, I think it's okay to allocate some money towards places that were particularly hurt by rising ten year yields if we think yields have... stabilized.”at 21:01

Middle East & Iran

• Kathy Entwistle · Morgan Stanley

  The war is causing market trouble through higher oil prices and inflation.

  Kathy says the war is causing a lot of issues. It is pushing oil prices and inflation higher, which is extending the downturn and trickling into more regular parts of the market. This is one reason she is thinking about where the market is headed.

  “I think the war right now is causing a lot of issues. Oil prices, inflation, and that's extending things out a little bit and it's trickling into other of the more regular parts of the market.”at 17:03

• Guy Adami · CNBC

  Middle East escalation, not detente, is driving oil higher and is bearish for stocks, not priced in.

  Guy thinks the market may be realizing there will not be a detente in the Middle East, and instead there is escalation. Crude oil prices are rising, which he says is not bullish for equities. Even after today's move higher in the VIX, he believes the escalation risk over the next couple of weeks is not priced in.

  “maybe there's not going to be some sort of detente in The Middle East. It's actually in sort of escalation... which I got to tell you something is not bullish for the equity market.”at 18:32

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Kathy Entwistle · Morgan Stanley

  Tech is spending more than it earns, so she is avoiding tech and buying nothing unprofitable.

  Kathy says the narrative is that these companies are spending more money than they are making, and that nobody wants to buy something that cannot make money. This is why her firm is not in the tech area, even as it holds some equities strategically.

  “The bottom line is they're spending more money than they're making. Right? This is the narrative. And nobody wants to buy something that can't make money.”at 15:59

Gold & precious metals

• Guy Adami · CNBC

  Gold is not acting as a risk-off hedge; his thesis may be right but the price has been wrong.

  Guy expected gold to rally on the Bitcoin hack, but it fell below $4,000 instead. In a risk-off environment gold is not winning. He says the story has not changed, but the price has, so his thesis may be right even though the price has been wrong.

  “in a risk off environment, which we're clearly in, gold is not winning. Do I think the story has changed? No, but the price has changed, which means my thesis is maybe right”at 22:05

Pharma & biotech

• Guy Adami · CNBC

  Healthcare beyond Lilly is fairly valued, but biotech M&A is coming.

  Guy says Lilly aside, the rest of healthcare is still relatively fairly valued, especially if the rotation continues. He thinks biotech continues to do well and that M&A is coming. He points to Insmed's strong quarter and Merck's move to its highest price in a while as signs to stay in healthcare.

  “the rest of the space is still relatively... fairly valued... I think biotech continues. I do think M&A is coming.”at 29:42

Airlines & aviation

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Airlines are better buys than other industrials; margins hold up even with higher fuel costs.

  Tim says if he were buying industrial names he would buy a couple of the airlines, and even some rails. He sees better margins there even with higher fuel costs, and says recent numbers have been pretty good.

  “If I was gonna buy industrial names, I'd be buying a couple of the airlines. I'd even be buying some of the rails.”at 35:56

Shipping, trucking & logistics

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Railroads are a buy because their margins are improving even as fuel costs rise.

  Seymour would add railroad exposure within industrials. His evidence is that rail margins are starting to improve despite higher shipment volumes and higher fuel costs, which he treats as a sign of pricing and cost strength.

  “I'd even be buying some of the rails. We're starting to see better margins there even in higher shipment... Excuse me, higher fuel costs.”at 35:56