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Ben Emons: latest market views
FedWatch Advisors
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Founder and CIO of FedWatch Advisors, a quant investment firm that applies large language models to central bank and financial market news, and a former macro strategist at Medley Global Advisors with earlier portfolio management roles at PIMCO and Nuveen.
Chorus has 5 views from Ben Emons across 2 episodes on CNBC Fast Money since October 16, 2026.
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The 10-year yield bottomed near 4.81%, and should rise again with December hike odds up.
Emmons says 4.81% is a big support level for the 10-year yield, which he thinks has bottomed there and should move back up. He cites rising odds of a December rate hike. He views the current rates move as a brief reaction to the election, with the strong economy ahead likely to push yields higher again.
“I think $4.81 is a big support level on the ten year. I think he bottomed out there and it should go back upwards, because I did notice that also the odds for a rate hike in December actually went back up again.”at 15:11
CNBC Fast Money: Market’s Post-Election Surge… And Prognosis For Pharma, Health Care After Midterms 11/4/26 ·
Smaller 10- and 30-year auction sizes in refunding would have a big impact on long yields.
Emmons says the refunding language hints the Treasury may shift issuance away from long-end bonds, with fewer low-end bonds and bills. He notes the debt ceiling is approaching and that it shapes the Treasury's plans. If it cuts 10- and 30-year auction sizes, he says, that would have a big impact.
“We know that if they do bring those auction sizes a little bit down, say for the ten year and thirty year, that will have a big impact.”at 16:43
CNBC Fast Money: Market’s Post-Election Surge… And Prognosis For Pharma, Health Care After Midterms 11/4/26 ·
Hot CPI and PPI data will set up a December Fed meeting focused on price stability.
Emmons says next week's CPI and PPI data will still be relatively hot. He argues the data sets up the December Fed meeting, which will remain focused on price stability. He says the Fed is on the sidelines watching how the election and legislation play out before it responds.
“That data will still be relatively hot. I think that sets up the December meeting, and that will still be the key focus for [the Fed] to put out price stability.”at 17:56
CNBC Fast Money: Market’s Post-Election Surge… And Prognosis For Pharma, Health Care After Midterms 11/4/26 ·
Market's low odds of a Fed hike are too low; the Fed will need one or two more hikes.
Ben reads the Fed's tone as showing a live meeting, and says PPI and CPI data imply a higher probability than the market prices. He sees synchronised global tightening and pipeline inflation in PPI that will reach consumers. He thinks the Fed has to go further, with one or two more hikes, so the odds should be higher than the market's roughly 17%.
“The Fed has to go further from here. I think one more or two more hikes. So I think the probability is too low now. I think it should be higher.”at 11:48
CNBC Fast Money: Coreweave’s Impact On AI Trade… And Netflix Results On Deck 10/16/26 ·
Data-center spending has been propping up the US unemployment picture through services employment.
Ben says the unemployment picture has held up over recent months because of the impact data centers have on the service sector. If data-center build-out changes, that support could fade, which would bring some form of stagflation risk. He presents this as a reason the labor market is more exposed to the AI spending cycle.
“the unemployment picture has been over the last few months supported by the impact that data centers have on service sector, for example.”at 16:06
CNBC Fast Money: Coreweave’s Impact On AI Trade… And Netflix Results On Deck 10/16/26 ·
Shows
- CNBC Fast Money · 2 episodes
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