Coreweave’s Impact On AI Trade… And Netflix Results On Deck 10/16/26

Apple

Across the shows: 24 speakers in other episodes, 14 bullish and 8 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Mackenzie Sigalos · CNBCUncertain

  Foldable iPhone Duo preorders look strong, but supply limits make real demand unclear.

  Apple calls preorder demand extraordinary and pickup slots are sold out, but Apple will not say whether fresh inventory is coming. Pricing at $1,999 came in below the roughly $2,500 analysts expected, which Sigalos reads as Apple taking share in a small but high-value foldables category. Foldables are about 2% of units but 7% of industry revenue. Limited initial supply makes it hard to separate real demand from scarcity.

  “So the long wait, it's certainly encouraging, but we still don't know how much reflects real demand versus very limited initial supply.”at 24:39

• Bonawyn Eison · CNBCUncertain

  Apple's cash flow and buybacks give it a margin of safety, but valuation is the overhang.

  Bonawyn cites Apple's balance-sheet flexibility, robust free cash flow and buybacks as levers it can pull. He sees positive catalysts from a new higher-priced SKU, services and China stabilising, and possible share gains against Huawei. Valuation is still the overhang, and given the market backdrop he expects the current premium cannot hold in the short term.

  “They also have robust free cash flow, and as you said, buybacks, and so that gives them levers that they can pull.”at 26:52

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementUncertain

  Apple at 39x forward earnings is expensive; foldable demand is encouraging but not yet a super cycle.

  Courtney calls the 39x forward earnings multiple expensive, which gives Apple a high bar to clear. She sees the early foldable iPhone preorders as a positive sign, but says it is too early to call this a super cycle. She wants to see whether buyers of the first cohort keep demand up or wait for a cheaper iPhone next year.

  “I personally think that this is... the valuation of 39 times forward earnings is expensive here, and so it's really... it has a high bar that it has to reach.”at 27:49

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.Bearish

  Apple should see a drawdown after each trillion-dollar milestone, so waiting is better than buying now.

  Steve gives historical drawdowns after Apple crossed each milestone. The stock fell about 40% after reaching $1 trillion, about 25% after $2 trillion, about 30% after $3 trillion, and about 14% after $4 trillion. Given that pattern, he expects a drawdown from the $5 trillion level. He likes the stock and the foldable iPhone, but thinks investors should wait.

  “...the stock had a drawdown of 40%... So there is gonna be a drawdown. I don't know how much that drawdown is, but I think you wait.”at 28:35

Walmart

Across the shows: 10 speakers in other episodes, 7 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementNeutral

  Prefers Walmart short term for low beta, but doubts it can hold its peak valuation.

  Tim owns Walmart and Amazon. In the short run he would rather own Walmart, because it has a beta of about 0.6 to 0.7 versus Amazon at 1.3 to 1.4, is lower-vol, and pays a dividend. Its tech underpinnings explain the high valuation, but he thinks Walmart will struggle to hold this peak multiple over the medium term.

  “In the short run, I'd rather own Walmart.”at 31:40

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementBullish

  Walmart will be a place where people hide out, benefiting from trade-down while valuation stays high.

  Courtney says Walmart's valuation is not cheap, but its business benefits from inflation pressure, which is pushing consumers to trade down. Walmart does not face the capex concerns hitting Amazon. Its valuation above Amazon's is the big question, but the broader economy favors Walmart.

  “I think Walmart will be a place where people hide out.”at 33:14

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.Bullish

  Walmart's premium is justified by its ads business, which grew 46% and drove the stock higher.

  Steve says investors are paying for Walmart's ads business, which is up 46% in a short time. That growth explains the recent spike in the stock. He compares it with Amazon, where AWS growth of 36 to 38% is offset by technology overhang.

  “When you look at Walmart... You're paying for the ads business. The ads business is up 46% in pretty short order. So that's why you see the spike in the stock.”at 34:05

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementBullish

  Walmart is a defensive place to hide if capex worries and inflation keep weighing on markets.

  Garcia says that if CapEx concerns and inflation remain worries, Walmart is probably a place to hide out. She is using it as a defensive position in a market with those risks, though she gives little detail on the company's fundamentals.

  “If CapEx concerns and inflation are still gonna be a worry, Walmart's probably a place you can hide out here.”at 46:56

Nike

Across the shows: 8 speakers in other episodes, 4 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Nike is worth owning at current levels, but the sector lacks tailwinds, so no big near-term turnaround.

  Seymour believes in the Nike brand and thinks it can get operational leverage when tailwinds improve. He thinks the stock can be owned here after a rotation-driven bounce, but he doesn't expect a big turnaround. He says the sector has no tailwinds, so the company doesn't either.

  “I thought you could own Nike 20% higher. I think you can own it here, but I don't expect to see a big turnaround.”at 45:05

• Bonawyn Eison · CNBCNeutral

  Nike's bounce is tactical from oversold conditions; not a new uptrend, and most downside is likely priced in.

  Eison is hesitant to call the bounce the start of an uptrend. He sees it as tactical and technical, with people buying value after oversold conditions. Known pain points in China and Nike Direct are well documented, so it wouldn't be his first place to add capital. He still thinks most of the downside is baked in, which he hopes is true.

  “I'm hesitant to call it the beginnings of an uptrend.”at 45:42

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.Bearish

  Nike's weak China and Europe sales outweigh its North American strength, so the stock needs fixes to keep bouncing.

  Grasso says North America is the only bright spot, up a few points. Europe is down 5% and China down 22%. China is about two-thirds of the international weight. He says Nike's rivals are promoting their own brands much more than Nike promotes its brand. He concludes there are many things wrong and the company must fix one or two to keep the stock bouncing.

  “Europe is down 5%. China's down 22%. China's two thirds of the of the weight on it internationally.”at 46:17

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 26 speakers in other episodes, 6 bullish and 26 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementBearish

  CoreWeave is the canary for the AI build-out because its heavy debt load threatens the segment.

  CoreWeave has become the poster child for AI-infrastructure stress. It is not a semiconductor company, and it carries a large debt load that is shaping the whole neocloud segment. Courtney points to bonds trading at yields above 15% as evidence that investors doubt CoreWeave can justify its high cost of capital. Demand for AI exists, but the open question is how far out returns will arrive, and the next test is the big AI companies' earnings.

  “Core Weave has become the canary in the coal mine or the poster child... It's debt ridden. So you have a company that has a huge amount of debt that's really shepherding the whole segment.”at 2:51

• Bonawyn Eison · CNBCBearish

  Rising cost of capital erodes CoreWeave's revenue growth, so the credit market must be fixed first.

  Bonawyn says this is not a complete market panic. The real issue is the cost of capex. CoreWeave's revenue grew about 110% sequentially last quarter, but rising cost of capital is eating each incremental revenue dollar. Even 110% or 130% growth will not be enough until the credit markets are brought under control, so he would stay away from the neocloud cohort for now.

  “each incremental dollar in revenue growth is now being eaten and eroded away by increased cost of capital. So until that latter is resolved, I don't think that the growth, whether it'd be a 110% or even a 130%, is going to be enough”at 7:03

VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, past 30 days

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.Bullish

  Semiconductor ETF is a buy here; the moving-average gap usually resolves higher on earnings.

  Steve notes that the 50-day moving average of SMH sits about 12% above the 200-day, versus about 36% two months ago. In two of three similar cases it resolved with the semis moving higher into earnings. Earnings for semis should be better, and that could stem the losses even if the stocks do not rally on it. Everyone is worried about debt, and he argues that the other semis, unlike CoreWeave, do not spend a quarter of revenue servicing debt.

  “I'd be a buyer of semis here.”at 4:56

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBearish

  Semiconductor uptrends are challenged; semis have spent more time below the 50-day since July.

  Tim says semis have traded below the 50-day more often than above it since July. He reads that as a sign that the market is challenging the uptrends, even though the long-term trend lines still hold. He does not dispute the earnings outlook, but he treats the technical damage as a near-term warning.

  “semis have lived below the fifty day more than they've lived above it since July. So, you know, we're at a place where I think the market is telling you that those uptrends are a little more challenged.”at 5:04

Amazon.com

Across the shows: 11 speakers in other episodes, 7 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Bullish on Amazon over the medium term, mainly because the valuation is attractive.

  Tim owns Amazon and says he is bullish on both Amazon and Walmart. Amazon has higher beta, which makes it less attractive in volatile markets, but he likes its valuation over the medium term. He finds the valuation attractive relative to Walmart's peak multiple.

  “To be clear, I am... I'm bullish in both names. I like Amazon on valuation.”at 31:59

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementBearish

  Amazon is more sensitive to capex concerns and cloud infrastructure payout than Walmart.

  Courtney argues that the capex concerns that started the conversation will hit Amazon hard, because Amazon is heavily exposed to cloud infrastructure spending and the payout on it. Walmart does not carry that exposure, so the valuation gap between them reflects this difference.

  “...that is where Amazon is going to be much more sensitive to the CapEx concerns and the payout on their cloud infrastructure.”at 33:14

Netflix

Across the shows: 10 speakers in other episodes, 9 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Netflix is a good longer-term owning story on margin expansion, cash flow and buybacks despite weak near-term engagement.

  Seymour says owning Netflix looks interesting because it keeps expanding margins, with free cash flow yield close to 5%, and buybacks should drive multiple appreciation. He is cautious on the coming report: engagement hours are down and he doesn't think engagement has improved much, so earnings may not be great. He sees the content-team shuffle as less important than the longer-term, medium-term picture, and says investors will need patience.

  “Owning Netflix here looks really interesting because it's a company that is continuing to have margin expansion. Their free cash flow yield's close to 5%. They're gonna be buying back shares.”at 37:52

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.Bearish

  Netflix is losing viewers to YouTube and short-form video, and the market is punishing it for it.

  Grasso says YouTube is growing its audience while Netflix is losing eyeballs, and short-form video is what is taking that time. He says Netflix is now playing catch-up after usually leading the market, and the market doesn't like it. The stock chart is back to two-year levels. He adds that it is not necessarily a bad place to step in, which tempers the bearish view.

  “YouTube growing eyeballs and Netflix is losing eyeballs. That's it in a nutshell. And the short form is what's stealing it.”at 38:15

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 26 speakers in other episodes, 29 bullish and 6 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Meta is far from expensive and looks really interesting after the sell-off.

  Tim acknowledges Meta has had a big run and may be more exposed to AI-build-out sentiment than Google. He still argues the stock is far from expensive, and he wants to own the Magnificent Seven because they remain defensive and reasonably valued. Rotation and reassessment are creating an opening.

  “Meta is far from expensive. I think Meta looks really interesting here.”at 9:42

Oracle

Across the shows: 19 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 16 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bonawyn Eison · CNBCBearish

  Levered AI-infrastructure names like Oracle are a poor buy into the current selloff.

  After a 25 to 30% drop in a week, Bonawyn says a bounce is likely but he would be hesitant to catch the falling knife. He would avoid the neocloud and any levered company such as Oracle at this point. He is willing to give up a 5 to 7% bounce to avoid the risk of holding a levered name while credit conditions are tightening.

  “I would be hesitant to jump into the neocloud or into any levered company, Oracle, for example, right at this moment in time.”at 19:18

Citigroup

Across the shows: 6 speakers in other episodes, 6 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Citi's stock is trading where it should after management guided conservatively rather than negatively.

  Seymour says Citi has had a decent couple of days. He thinks management was conservative, not negative, in its outlook, and that is where the stock should be trading. He is suggesting the market has priced the guidance correctly and the stock is recovering.

  “Decent couple days in Citibank after I think management was conservative, not negative, and that's where the stock should be trading.”at 46:43

US stock market outlook

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  Small caps with short-term debt will be squeezed if rates stay high.

  Courtney says the higher cost of capital is not bad for everyone, but it hurts overly levered companies most. Small caps have more short-term debt priced at higher rates, so they are more squeezed if rates stay higher. Companies with cash on the balance sheet or strong cash flow can absorb it.

  “it's those who are overly levered, especially like this is the concern of small caps right now who are going to have a lot more short term debt, which now has higher interest rates attached to them.”at 8:35

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  S&P 500 trades inside 20x forward earnings, so markets look interesting absent a credit scare.

  Tim says the S&P 500 is now probably inside 20 times forward earnings. He likes valuations and the Magnificent Seven. He qualifies it with a caveat: the view holds in the absence of a huge credit scare, although he expects the cat-and-mouse trading to continue.

  “I like valuations here. S and P is... I think it's probably now somewhere inside of 20 times forward. So in the absence of a huge credit scare, I think markets look kinda interesting.”at 10:05

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.

  Money rotates out of tech in fear, then returns to the Magnificent Seven because they hold the most cash.

  Steve describes a recurring pattern: investors sell whichever sector they fear most, which is technology now, and then rotate back into the Magnificent Seven. The reason is that these companies have the most cash and do not need to borrow. He sees the current selloff as following that historical pattern.

  “...everyone rotates out of the things that they're the most scared of at that time... It's technology right now. And then how does it usually resolve? They rotate right back into mag seven because they have the most cash.”at 10:23

US growth & recession risk

• Bonawyn Eison · CNBC

  Growth scares are warranted because tech's EPS-growth concentration is now under challenge.

  Bonawyn sees the concentration of EPS growth in the tech cohort as the key risk, and that concentration is now coming under challenge. He thinks the ten-year yield move is not purely a growth scare, and some of it is a flight to quality. He still sees the growth concern as justified.

  “I think some of the growth scares are warranted. When you look at the concentration of EPS growth within the tech cohort and then you see that that is now coming under challenge, I think that is raised for concern.”at 7:03

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  If AI build-out slows, the US economy will slow, and yields are already reflecting that.

  Tim argues that data-center and AI build-out contributes a large and rising share of GDP growth. If that build-out slows, for credit, political or capital-access reasons, the economy will slow. Yields are sniffing that out: credit conditions have not improved and inflation did not ease this week, so the rate rise may be partly oversold.

  “If we look at this percentage of GDP and the delta certainly in upward GDP that's coming from data center build out... if that is slowing for any number of reasons... you can't tell me the economy is not gonna slow down.”at 17:07

US rates & the Fed

• Ben Emons · FedWatch Advisors

  Market's low odds of a Fed hike are too low; the Fed will need one or two more hikes.

  Ben reads the Fed's tone as showing a live meeting, and says PPI and CPI data imply a higher probability than the market prices. He sees synchronised global tightening and pipeline inflation in PPI that will reach consumers. He thinks the Fed has to go further, with one or two more hikes, so the odds should be higher than the market's roughly 17%.

  “The Fed has to go further from here. I think one more or two more hikes. So I think the probability is too low now. I think it should be higher.”at 11:48

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.

  Energy drove most of the CPI and PPI moves, so Fed hike odds are not as live as thought.

  Steve breaks down the CPI move, saying about half came from energy and a quarter from shelter. About 80% of the PPI move was energy, and a further 25 to 30% of the services move was energy. He asks what the Fed can do about an energy-driven price shock, and concludes a hike is less live than people think.

  “CPI 50% of that move was energy... What can the Fed do about that? So I don't think it's as live as we would like to think it should be.”at 12:09

Oil & fuels

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.

  Roughly a quarter of Brent and WTI prices is a war premium, not a supply loss.

  Steve argues that Hormuz flows are back near normal, and Gulf producers are using pipelines more. Citing Goldman, he says about 25% of Brent and WTI prices is war premium. Russia and Ukraine plus the Iran escalation add to the premium, but the physical supply picture is better than the headlines suggest.

  “It's the war premium, and I think Goldman had it at 25% of Brent price and WTI are the war premium.”at 20:25

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.

  Refiners are the way to play the current oil price spike.

  Steve says the refiner trade is the best way to play the oil move. Courtney agreed in the same discussion, saying refiners are at max capacity, so their returns should hold up and not fall off a cliff even if headline prices ease. The argument rests on refiners' capacity constraints rather than on crude prices alone.

  “For me, I think that the refiner trade is definitively the way to play it.”at 20:34

US consumer

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  The consumer is K-shaped: older, wealthy households benefit from higher rates while younger consumers get squeezed.

  Garcia says the aggregate consumer picture hides big differences by age and income. Baby boomers hold most of US wealth and benefit from higher rates, since their bond portfolios now pay more income. Younger consumers are being squeezed, and that is the real problem.

  “They're actually benefiting from rates being higher. Right? ... they're getting squeezed here, and that's really the problem.”at 43:36

• Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.

  Consumer spending will weaken unless the debt squeeze breaks soon, as debt payments absorb extra income.

  Grasso says the consumer's extra income is being used to pay down debt and to cover gas costs. He thinks the outlook looks worse in the near term. If something doesn't break soon, retail sales should start dropping. Right now, he says, the consumer still looks resilient.

  “Every extra dollar, as Sharon said, you're using it to pay off your debt, and you're using it at the pump. And if something doesn't break soon, then the retail sales should be dropping.”at 43:56

US jobs & labor market

• Ben Emons · FedWatch Advisors

  Data-center spending has been propping up the US unemployment picture through services employment.

  Ben says the unemployment picture has held up over recent months because of the impact data centers have on the service sector. If data-center build-out changes, that support could fade, which would bring some form of stagflation risk. He presents this as a reason the labor market is more exposed to the AI spending cycle.

  “the unemployment picture has been over the last few months supported by the impact that data centers have on service sector, for example.”at 16:06

US Treasuries & yields

• Bonawyn Eison · CNBC

  The short end of the Treasury curve is a safe haven while tech volatility persists.

  Bonawyn says he would look at the short end of the curve for tactical positioning during volatility. He sees several reasons it could be a safe haven, and also cites certain parts of health care. He describes the ten-year move as partly a flight to quality rather than a pure growth scare.

  “I would look at the short end of the curve. I think that there is, you know, a lot of reasons why that might be a safe haven to hide out on.”at 18:51

US inflation

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  High energy prices will keep inflation data hot and rates higher unless oil falls.

  If energy prices stay this high, the impact will keep flowing through CPI and PCE data. Courtney says the PPI report already shows oil effects that have not fully passed through yet, and the pass-through will be greater the longer prices stay high. That keeps rates higher unless oil comes down.

  “if you're going see energy prices this high, that keeps that story strong and are going to continue to see that flow through the CPI data and PCE data as you move forward. And so I think that is gonna continue to keep rates higher if they can't get oil prices down.”at 20:38

Commodities (broad)

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Commodity costs are sticky and prices will stay high, keeping inflation pressure alive.

  Tim argues that shipping and transportation costs get passed to consumers, and overall commodity costs are sticky. He expects commodity prices to stay high across bulk commodities and metals. Copper is near all-time highs despite recent concerns, so he calls it inflationary.

  “I think commodity costs overall are sticky. I think commodity prices are gonna stay high across both the bulk commodities, but also some of the metals. And look at copper. It's still near all time highs despite some of these concerns.”at 21:35