The State of the AI Trade 10/9/26

Apple

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 0 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital AdvisorsBullish

  Apple's staggered launch is hurting near-term demand; Duo should do well after Oct 16 preorders.

  Snipe thinks the staggered launch is affecting short-term demand, along with memory cost pressure. Apple raised prices on the MacBook and iPad, and that went over fine. He will watch the October 16 preorders and expects the Duo to do well, and that Apple will be accretive and positive for the stock.

  “we'll see October 16, you know, what the deal is. I think the duo will do well.”at 18:50

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital PartnersBearish

  Foldable iPhone Duo will not do well; camera regresses and the $2,000 price raises doubts.

  Weiss thinks the Duo is going backwards on the camera. It lacks the zoom and features of the iPhone 16 and 17, and the price of around $2,000 raises questions. He expects strong initial demand from first adopters, but overall he does not think the Duo will do well. He also says the iPhone production cuts reported are not unusual, since Apple always orders late and suppliers carry the inventory.

  “I don't think duo is gonna do so well. I think the initial size will be good, but the camera's deficient.”at 19:00

• Rob Sechan · NewEdge WealthNeutral

  Apple is neutral on valuation and lofty release expectations; long-term it can't be underweight.

  Sechan has been neutral on Apple since July because the valuation and lofty expectations around this release set it up for disappointment. Long term, he does not think investors can be underweight Apple. It has strong capital efficiency and free cash flow generation, and an ecosystem that retains and owns the customer. As with the wireless cycle, companies that own the customer benefit most when the app layer is built out on top of AI infrastructure.

  “we're neutral on Apple, went to neutral in July, mainly based on valuation and lofty expectations around this release, and that's kind of a setup for a disappointment.”at 21:11

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 17 speakers in other episodes, 16 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Nvidia is spending heavily and not decelerating, so AI is still in early innings.

  Link cites Nvidia's spending over the last year: $24B on AI R&D, $18B on new architecture, $99B in equity investments versus $7B the year before, and supply agreements to secure almost $400B of supply. She argues this shows Nvidia is 'going full throttle' and not slowing down. She takes that as evidence that AI is still early and expects earnings season to confirm backlogs, orders, growth and possibly margin expansion across the related sectors.

  “I mean, they are going full throttle. They are not decelerating, and that gives me comfort that we are still in the fairly early innings with regards to AI.”at 8:22

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 11 speakers in other episodes, 15 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Rob Sechan · NewEdge WealthBullish

  Meta is cheap and a buy; Muse app traction shows the opportunity.

  Sechan says Meta is very cheap, and historically whenever Meta has gotten cheap it has been a good time to buy. Meta's Muse AI assistant has 2 million daily active users and is the top-ranked app in the App Store, which underscores the opportunity. Meta owns the customer, which means it benefits from the app layer built on AI infrastructure. His fund is overweight Meta.

  “Meta, on the other hand, is very cheap. And we've we've seen historically that as Meta gets cheap, it's always been a good time to be a buyer. And when you look at Muse, 2,000,000 daily active users, top rank app in the App Store”at 22:23

Mirion Technologies

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Mirion gives nuclear exposure; acquisitions should lift organic growth that has lagged.

  Link bought Mirion for nuclear exposure after the Constellation and Alphabet deal to bring 890 MW of nuclear power to the PJM grid. Nuclear is about 70% of Mirion's revenue and medical about 30%. The company has about 70% recurring revenue, double-digit growth, expanding gross margins, 10 acquisitions in six years and $1.1B of backlog. The stock is down 29% year to date because organic growth has been slower than expected. Link thinks acquisitions will help the growth rate and organic growth should improve going forward.

  “And I think these acquisitions are really gonna help the growth rate of the company, and I wanted to have more exposure on the nuclear side.”at 30:17

EQT

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Natural gas will be the long-term winner for power: abundant, clean, but pipelines are short.

  Link says that because the US has a lot of natural gas and it is clean, it will be the long-term winner in meeting power needs. The constraint is that there are not enough pipelines. That is why she owns EQT for natural gas exposure.

  “I believe long term, natural gas is going to be the winner because we have a lot of it. It's clean. We just don't have enough pipelines.”at 30:58

Las Vegas Sands

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Las Vegas Sands has upside in coming quarters on easy comparisons, despite weak near-term gaming numbers.

  Link owns a small LVS position that is down 44%. She argues the company is still taking market share in Macau and Singapore, though gaming revenue is down 4% with no World Cup bounce, so near-term numbers keep falling. She says the stock trades at 12 times earnings and that management's free cash flow and buybacks support it. She expects upside in the coming quarters, probably not this quarter, especially on easy comparisons.

  “The stocks at 12 times earnings, and Contessa was spot on in terms of free cash flow and the buybacks that they've been announcing... I do think that there's some upside, in the coming quarters, probably not this quarter, but in the coming quarters, especially on easy comparisons.”at 38:23

Micron Technology

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Micron's fundamentals are strong; no reason to short despite a 260% year-to-date run.

  Link says the stock is up 260% year to date, so expectations are high, but earnings improved visibility. Management said demand exceeds supply well through 2028. Its 24 new customer agreements account for about 30% of business by 2030, over $100 billion. She cites pricing power evident in gross margins and says Micron is short memory and compute. She will stay patient, though she accepts that some people may take profits, and sees no fundamental reason to short the stock.

  “Visibility is getting better because they have new customer agreements. They have 24 customer agreements, and that accounts for 30% of their business by 2030, over $100,000,000,000... I don't think there's any reason fundamentally to be shorting the stock.”at 40:58

Humana

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital PartnersBullish

  Humana's turnaround is complete; star-rating gains and new management make the stock's performance phenomenal.

  Weiss says star ratings drive Medicare Advantage membership and the government bonus payments. He notes that the CEO arrived about three years ago and brought in new senior management in 2024 and 2025. He argues the turnaround is complete, that the business has been rationalized, and that Humana moved its star ratings quickly from lower levels. He calls the performance phenomenal and says he should own more of the stock.

  “And the turnaround is, I'd say, complete now. It's well on its way. They've rationalized the business somewhat, you know, quite a bit.”at 43:28

UnitedHealth Group

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  UnitedHealth is the managed-care stock to own, trading at a discount to its historical multiple.

  Link says UnitedHealth trades at 19 times forward estimates versus a historical range near 23, and at 15 times EBITDA versus a typical 19, which is a big discount. She credits a strong leader who is turning the company around. The key is next week's earnings and the medical loss ratio, guidance and cost framework for the second half and 2027. Utilization is rising and seasonally higher, but she expects the company to contain costs, and calls the stock best in breed on sale.

  “I think, in the managed care space is absolutely the one in my mind to own when you can get this stock at 19 times forward estimates when its historical range is at 23... I think the stock is definitely best in breed on sale.”at 44:02

AbbVie

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital AdvisorsBullish

  AbbVie is diversifying beyond immunology, which he sees as accretive for the long term.

  Snipe says immunology is AbbVie's core story, with much talk about Skyrizi and Rinvoq performing well and the company moving away from Humira as it faces biosimilar competition. He argues that expansion outside immunology is accretive for the long term, so he continues to like the stock.

  “They continue to diversify outside of that... They are expanding outside of the immunology space, which I think is accretive for the long term. So I continue to like that one.”at 44:55

Wells Fargo & Company

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Wells Fargo should have a very good quarter as net interest margins have bottomed.

  Link says the stock has lagged, and she expects a very good quarter because net interest margins have bottomed. She also expects better profitability targets from the bank.

  “I actually think they're gonna have a very good quarter. I think net interest margins have bottomed. The stock has lagged, and I expect better profitability targets as well.”at 45:31

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company

• Rob Sechan · NewEdge WealthBullish

  Hewlett Packard Enterprise will capture enterprise AI adoption and trades at a reasonable valuation.

  Sechan expects HPE to be a better fisher of enterprise AI adoption, meaning it will win enterprise AI spending. He argues the stock is at a reasonable valuation and still cheap.

  “I think they're gonna be a better fisher of Enterprise AI adoption. They're at a reasonable valuation and, you know, still cheap.”at 45:45

US stock market outlook

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital Advisors

  Concentration in AI stocks makes the market vulnerable; AI moves drive the index.

  Snipe says concentration risk is his main concern. As AI goes, the market goes. The equal-weight index outperformed earlier this year, but his analysis of 52-week highs and lows shows much going on under the surface that needs attention. He is concerned about the vulnerability of the market to AI spending continuing.

  “I think one of the things that's been a bit concerning for me is just the vulnerability of the concentration risk. Right? Obviously, as we've seen, as AI goes, the market goes.”at 4:50

• Rob Sechan · NewEdge Wealth

  Stock market is at risk from its reliance on a few AI stocks.

  Sechan agrees that the narrow leadership is consistent with where durable growth is coming from. He still says the market rests on one pillar that is completely dependent on access to capital. A failed financing would have market and economic consequences.

  “this entire market rests on one pillar of strength.”at 10:13

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital Partners

  Earnings, the election, the Fed and Iran risk converge into a treacherous near-term period.

  Weiss says earnings season overlaps the election, and the Fed's next move is uncertain. A possible resumption of military action against Iran adds to these risks, and Scott Wapner adds the oil angle. Together, he thinks they could make the market treacherous for a period. The baseline earnings case is up 30%, but it is concentrated in a few companies, and even meeting expectations has not been enough.

  “You got a very treacherous period coming up cause not only do you have earnings, but you've got the election, which is right during earnings.”at 13:53

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital Partners

  Circular funding among AI companies is the key worry; a failed raise could hit public markets first.

  Weiss says the worrying element is the funding and circular funding running through the AI companies. If one defaults or cannot raise capital, the appetite that looks insatiable today could stop. He questions the unconvincing returns for private-market investors in OpenAI and Anthropic after the sell-off, and notes an Australian AI IPO that could not come to market. He argues the spending is an arms race, so if companies stop spending, it is 'look out below'. He expects the disconnect between private and public valuations to resolve with public markets leading, and the debt trades publicly. He is not calling the end of the cycle, but says ignoring the risk is 'whistling by the graveyard'.

  “What's worrisome is... the funding and the circular funding that's through all these companies. And if one defaults on it or if one can't raise capital, right now, there seems to be an insatiable appetite.”at 2:30

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  Hyperscalers' capex will likely hit the high end of $1.2-1.6T next year; no sign of cuts.

  Link notes hyperscalers will spend about $1 trillion this year and are expected to go to $1.2-1.6 trillion next year. She thinks it will be at the high end and sees no indication that spending will be reduced. If spending did slow, she sees risk across technology and the wider supply chain, including data centers, the grid and power companies. She sees no sign of a slowdown.

  “we know that they're going to spend a trillion dollars this year, and they're expected to go to 1.2 to [1.6 trillion] next year. I think it's gonna be at the high end. There's no indication whatsoever that these companies are going to reduce spend.”at 7:19

US growth & recession risk

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  AI spending is a large share of US growth, with consumers also contributing.

  Link says the economy is not growing this fast from AI alone. She puts AI at a big part of growth, 'probably 70%', and says consumers are also doing their part. She points to Bank of America consumer surveys as evidence of consumer strength.

  “I don't think that the economy is growing this fast just from AI. It's a big part of it, probably 70%, but the consumer is also doing their part.”at 8:46

US consumer

• Rob Sechan · NewEdge Wealth

  Consumer spending rests on an AI-driven stock wealth effect that depends on access to capital.

  Sechan says the whole market and economy rest on one pillar of strength. Consumers are spending because of a large wealth effect from the stock market, which is driven 44% by the Mag Seven and AI infrastructure stocks. That is completely dependent on access to capital. He does not expect a change in intent to spend, but says a failed financing could hurt markets and the economic trajectory. The Fed has room to cut if needed, but he expects a dramatic pullback if the pillar breaks.

  “there's been a huge wealth effect as it relates to the stock market, which is disproportionately driven 44% by the MAG seven and the AI infrastructure stocks.”at 10:33

US rates & the Fed

• Steve Liesman · CNBC

  Odds of an October Fed hike have fallen to about 20%, so the Fed is unlikely to hike.

  Liesman says the market odds of an October hike are only about 20% and have come way down. He does not think the Fed would hike into a 20% probability at this point. Some officials, including Hammack and perhaps Logan, want more tightening as inflation expectations rise due to gas prices. Williams and Jefferson have argued the Fed could benefit from more time.

  “the odds of a, October hike are only at 20%. They've come way down. And I don't think the Fed would hike into a 20% probability of a hike at this point.”at 26:09

Nuclear energy

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  Nuclear is here to stay; expanding existing plants matters since new builds are hard.

  Link says nuclear is gaining momentum and is here to stay. The grid lacks power, and that is why nuclear, coal, renewables and natural gas are all being discussed. She points to the Constellation and Alphabet deal as a long-term transaction that brings massive nuclear capacity. She argues that most people thought nuclear would be a short-term situation. New nuclear facilities are hard to build, so expanding existing ones is very important.

  “So nuclear is here. It's here to stay. It's actually gaining momentum”at 29:33