New Month, Better Tech Trade? 11/2/26

Apple

Across the shows: 19 speakers in other episodes, 8 bullish and 15 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital PartnersBearish

  Apple's valuation is a nosebleed; he is thinking of selling before earnings.

  He says the valuation is simply too high, and he is thinking of selling before earnings come out. He admits that a rich valuation does not mean the stock won't keep going, and that shorting on valuation is a mistake. The bearish case is the valuation, not a specific fundamental flaw.

  “I'm thinking of selling before earnings come out. Okay. Because the valuation is just”at 24:07

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBearish

  Apple is overvalued at 36x and chip cost pressure will hit its pricing and margins.

  At a 36x forward multiple, he says, you can't be discussing gross margins on a product. He thinks what is happening with chips and pricing will pressure Apple's pricing and margins. He owns the stock significantly underweight, sold half of the position four months ago, and says he is hoping Joe is right. He says the margin story is already known, which Joe disputes.

  “what we're seeing with chips and pricing, that's gonna put pressure on their pricing. ... And on their margins.”at 24:39

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBullish

  Apple's 36x multiple is justified by strong free cash flow, and he sees $400 before a stop.

  The forward multiple of 36x is the richest since 2008, but he argues it is a safe haven. Revenue growth should be the best since 2021 at 15%, and free cash flow was up 40% to $141B, while other hyperscalers burn cash. He says that is the attraction, and that the stock can trade at an elevated valuation for that reason. His cost basis is $2.76 and he believes the stock will hit 400 before a stop at 2.74.

  “At 36 times? I don't think so. It's a safe haven. The free cash flow continues to build.”at 25:10

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital ManagementNeutral

  Apple is a great company, but its multiple is capped and the quarter should be flat, plus or minus two.

  She has owned Apple for a long time and agrees that the free cash flow and revenue are already known. Like Costco and Walmart at around 40 times, Apple's multiple has hit a ceiling. She expects a solid quarter, with revenue growth as the key, but not a riveting one, and the stock flat within plus or minus 2%. She thinks the first quarter of next year, with Christmas sales, will matter more. The stock is priced for a lot at around $337, so she frames it as own it, don't trade it.

  “I've owned Apple for a long time, agree with a lot of the comments. Everything that we're talking about is already known.”at 26:41

• Michael Santoli · CNBCNeutral

  Apple's stock has traded as an anti-AI proxy, so its earnings may matter less.

  Santoli says Apple's earnings would normally be the top market story, but today it feels like a sideshow. He thinks there is little suspense about what Apple will say. The stock has traded as an anti-AI proxy rather than on its own corporate fundamentals, which he thinks mutes the earnings reaction.

  “...because the stock has so much traded as anti AI as a proxy as opposed to for its own corporate fundamentals, I think maybe that's muting it too.”at 45:45

Alphabet

Across the shows: 50 speakers in other episodes, 39 bullish and 27 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital PartnersUncertain

  Alphabet is less attractive than a month ago; its ad model looks suspect despite cheap valuation.

  Even after a 17% drop, he says Alphabet is not more attractive than 30 days ago. Its ad model drives everything and is now suspect, and he sees it losing share while search only holds steady. He calls the stock very cheap and says he is betting Alphabet will figure out AI monetization, but he has no interest in buying more. He says Alphabet has been low key on AI products.

  “No, it's not. ... because their ad model, which drives everything, is now suspect. ... You see them losing share.”at 17:48

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBearish

  Alphabet's stock is dead money for a while; hold a toehold but don't add meaningfully.

  He separates the company from the stock. The business is fine, with search growing 12% year over year on a business approaching $100B a quarter, so the company should not be damned. The stock, though, is dead money for a while because the narrative will not change soon. It was $160 a year and a half ago and is now about $280, so he suggests holding only a toehold position.

  “The stock is dead money, I think, for a while.”at 18:13

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 62 speakers in other episodes, 52 bullish and 33 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital PartnersBullish

  Meta is more attractive than a month ago; it is gaining ad share and innovating.

  Meta fell about 16%, similar to Alphabet, but he sees it as more attractive. He says Meta has picked up share in ads and has been innovating. He expects Meta to start a cloud business to cut its own cloud costs. He credits a CEO who acts as though he has to win tomorrow.

  “They picked up share and ad. They've been innovating.”at 19:14

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital ManagementBearish

  Meta's spending risks buying more sales, and it lacks the balance sheet to compete in cloud.

  Google Cloud lost money for years while spending huge capex, so starting a cloud business on top of Meta's current capex makes no sense. Muse is free now and Meta could monetize it if Siri and Google fail, which is a positive. But the core risk is spending huge sums just to sell more to users. She thinks Meta is very unlikely to have the balance sheet to compete with Amazon, Google and Microsoft in cloud.

  “I think if you think that they're gonna start a cloud business on top of all the CapEx they're doing now, that doesn't make any sense. ... for Meta, the risk is spending all of this money just to sell us more stuff.”at 20:06

Anthropic

Across the shows: 81 speakers in other episodes, 97 bullish and 64 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  Anthropic's IPO demand will be strong, given the well-received soft road show.

  He calls the Anthropic IPO the key tell for the market. He argues that Anthropic and its bankers would not have launched the deal unless the soft road show went well, and reports suggest it was well received. He expects demand to be great, though he is less sure about the valuation, which he thinks could be $1.5T or $2T.

  “The key tell here... is the Anthropic IPO. ... I don't think anthropic or its bankers would have brought that unless their soft road show was well received.”at 8:33

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 52 speakers in other episodes, 43 bullish and 17 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  Nvidia benefits as big spenders raise billions to fund AI buildouts.

  Large companies are raising huge sums such as SpaceX's $40B debt and Oracle's $20B, and that money is going to be spent. He argues that these firms are raising money to do something with it, and that Nvidia is a beneficiary, the same as Broadcom and AMD. He also thinks the $315 target on Nvidia is aggressive but not unreasonable.

  “Like, these companies are raising money to do something with it. And if you're NVIDIA, you are a beneficiary.”at 12:20

Cboe Global Markets

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBullish

  Cboe is benefiting from exponential options volume growth; he is adding and sees a breakout above $3.71.

  He bought Cboe in June at $2.63 and added after a pullback, since he views the pullback as an opportunity. He argues options volume is growing exponentially, with about 80% of daily US options volume expiring the same day. Cboe is seeing 20% revenue growth, and with prices advancing, he expects it to break above the $3.71 high from May.

  “I'm just telling you the dramatic growth of the options market is clearly benefiting Cboe. They're seeing 20% revenue growth.”at 30:37

Nutrien

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBearish

  Nutrien's ag trade failed; Hormuz-driven inflation did not extend into ag stocks, so he sold.

  He bought Nutrien in early September as an ag trade, betting that the inflationary effect of Strait of Hormuz challenges would spread from energy into agriculture stocks. CF worked well, but the spread never extended to Nutrien, and CF has now pulled back too. Ag stocks are not cooperating, so he sold the position as a poor trade.

  “I thought this inflationary effect would extend into some of the agriculture stocks, and ultimately, it hasn't bought Nutrien a little bit.”at 32:37

Apollo Global Management

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 0 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  Apollo's shares should rise as private credit proves not to be the disaster people feared.

  Seven months ago, people called private credit the next systemic risk or a Minsky moment, but that didn't happen. Most privately traded private funds have done well this year, a little below the historical average but still nicely positive. He says the asset class is not the disaster people thought, and that Apollo has more benefit to come as people recognize this. He says he has no opinion on the quarter itself.

  “So this asset class is not the disaster people thought it was, and Apollo has more benefit to come in its share price from people recognizing that.”at 33:37

Uber Technologies

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, past 30 days

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital ManagementBearish

  Uber needs a catalyst; she is not a fundamental bull and sells into rallies.

  She trades Uber in and out, buying in the low-to-high 60s and selling at 85 to 90. She is frustrated because people don't care about the name, and it would need a catalyst to move back toward 80. She sees driverless vehicles flooding the roads, including Waymo, and says Uber's deals with Waymo do not change the picture. She believes there are more sellers than buyers.

  “I'm in and out of this stock. I'm not a fundamental bull on this stock.”at 34:01

Marvell Technology

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBearish

  Marvell's all-stock $80B Lumentum deal is a mistake, using overvalued stock to chase Broadcom-style gaps.

  Terranova owns Marvell and dislikes the Lumentum deal. He says Marvell is thriving in optical networking with strong relationships with companies like Nvidia, but he objects to using its stock, which he calls clearly at a very high valuation, to buy another company. He argues Marvell is chasing Broadcom, which offers the full optical networking stack, while Marvell has gaps this deal fills. He sees it as a return to a prior-cycle pattern of all-stock acquisitions at high valuations, and notes the deal does not close until 2028, which adds political risk.

  “I don't like utilizing your stock, which is clearly at a very high valuation to buy another company.”at 42:17

Palantir Technologies

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital ManagementBullish

  Palantir revenue to rise 85% and earnings nearly double; original AI software stack, stock goes higher long term.

  Talkington expects revenue to be up 85% and earnings to almost double. She credits the execution of the team and says Palantir is the original AI software stack, which supports her view that the stock goes higher over the long term. She gives no further supporting detail on the business.

  “Revenues are gonna be up 85. Earnings will almost double. ... They are the original AI software stack, so I think the stock long term goes higher.”at 46:21

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital ManagementBullish

  Equal-weight S&P 500 ETF RSP will keep going higher, as Joe said.

  Talkington names RSP as her final trade and says it continues to go higher, citing Terranova's earlier comment. The show has just noted that the equal-weight index was up about 1% while non-Mag Seven, non-semi stocks were being bought. She gives no further data beyond that.

  “RSP, what goes higher? As Joe said, continues to go higher. Looks great.”at 46:40

US stock market outlook

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital Management

  Midterm years have been positive for the S&P since 1942, so don't get too bearish.

  She cites a historical record since 1942 in which the S&P was up in every midterm year, with an average return of around 16%. She says maybe this is the first negative one, but she would bet on the historical record and cautions investors against turning too bearish. She sees midterms as a clearing event that usually resets markets.

  “I will say from, like, 1942 to last midterms... 21 out of 21 times, the S and P is positive, and the average return is around 16%”at 13:48

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital Management

  Tech rotation should be followed by tech strength; buy individual names, not the sector.

  Last month was a clear signal of rotation out of tech, with nine of 11 sectors up and four up double digits. Because tech has taken technical damage, she expects follow-through this month. She still thinks the companies will deliver, but she wants Nvidia, Dell and DRAM names to move higher, since they are still getting the money. She advises looking at companies individually and selling calls rather than running from tech.

  “The rotation out of tech is in in earnest. ... I still think these companies will deliver writ large, but you do need to see the Nvidias, the Dells, the DRAM companies start moving higher”at 14:11

• Mike Vogelzang · CAPTRUST

  Low-cost US large-cap stock exposure drove endowment returns and has been hard to beat over ten years.

  Vogelzang says value equities have done well this year, better than large growth, and private equity, private credit and private real estate have been doing okay. The real drivers over the last three years have been traditional, simple, low-cost US investments. He says US large-cap equity defined by the S&P 500 has done so well over the last ten years that it has been hard to beat.

  “The real drivers the last few years, particularly the last three have been sort of just traditional simple low cost US investments.”at 40:13

• Dom Chu · CNBC

  Don't assume the S&P 500's last decade of outperformance will continue for the next ten years.

  After Vogelzang said US large-cap equity has been hard to beat over the last ten years, Chu cautions against projecting that ten-year record into the future. He gives no further reasoning.

  “I'd be careful about projecting that ten years into the future.”at 41:08

• Michael Santoli · CNBC

  Conditions for a decent bounce are manifesting; semis' failure to rally is the main hesitation.

  Santoli says the ingredients for a decent bounce were in place at Friday's close and some are now showing up. He points to March 30 and July 29 as important trading bottoms for the overall market and tech trade, with signs of capitulation at those points. The seasonal idea is not getting full traction, mainly because semiconductors have failed to rally, and Marvell is only part of that. He notes the S&P 500 held about 7,500 last week and the equal-weight index was up another 1%, showing buying in non-Mag Seven, non-semi stocks.

  “A lot of the ingredients for a decent bounce were in place at Friday's close. I think some of them are actually manifesting here.”at 44:32

AI: overall outlook

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment Partners

  AI and tech recovery needs broad confirmation before he adds exposure; a bounce isn't enough.

  He expects a return of optimism catalyzed by the momentum factor and the AI trade, but on November 2 he lacks evidence. Micron, AMD, Oracle and Intel were all down, so he wants broad-based recovery across AI and tech-adjacent names before allocating capital. He is waiting for evidence to drip in rather than buying before it appears.

  “I think we get a return of optimism that is catalyzed by the momentum factor and by the AI trade. However, at this moment, sitting here today on November 2, I don't have the evidence in front of me to suggest that I'm correct”at 3:07

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital Partners

  AI trade is on pause and likely past its peak, since AI firms can no longer raise capital freely.

  AI companies used to raise money whenever they wanted at any valuation, but funds and sovereigns now say they are full. OpenAI cut its round by about a third, and some funds have cut orders or pulled out of deals. Without the private-market valuation umbrella, weaker names will fall away, which will inform valuations across the group. He concludes that the AI trade is on pause and that this is typical at the peak of the cycle.

  “So I think the AI trade is, is definitely on pause, and this is very typical at the peak of the cycle. I think we saw the peak.”at 7:34

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity Partners

  Hyperscaler capex plans remain intact and capital markets are open, so financing is not a blocker.

  Financing is the market's challenge, with large debt deals from SpaceX, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle. He sees this as a positive, because Alphabet and Amazon did not back off capex and Microsoft's trim was slight and tied to supply chains. The biggest spenders still have capital market access, though pricing and cost of capital are harder. He argues the companies are raising money with a purpose, not to hold T-bills.

  “The capex plans are still very much intact. And for those three companies that I mentioned, the capital markets are open. ... Pricing is a little bit more difficult.”at 9:16

Credit markets

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital Management

  Hyperscaler debt issuance is pushing yields higher, as the corporate debt market can absorb only so much.

  Even pristine balance sheets are issuing historic amounts of debt. She is unsure how much the debt market can absorb at once, and says the math is the concern. Yields are rising for these companies as they issue, and the debt issuance is acting like a rubber band pushing on the market.

  “the corporate debt market can only absorb so much at a time. And so rightfully so, yields are going higher, I think, for these companies wanting to issue debt.”at 13:26

Oil & fuels

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital Partners

  If Iran retaliates against oil assets after the election, oil could spike far above normal.

  He sees an Iran war as ongoing, with oil trading lower on diplomacy talk. He argues the real black swan is the US going after Iran after the election and Iran retaliating against oil assets. That would send oil to a very high level, not the moderate spike typical of Middle East episodes, and would upend the market.

  “if we do go after Iran after the election, and Iran does retaliate against all the oil assets, you'll see oil at a high level”at 15:48

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital Partners

  Tech should not re-rate to past highs because it no longer has fortress balance sheets and free cash flow.

  Analysts who call tech historically cheap compare it to past periods, but tech used to have fortress balance sheets and positive free cash flow. Now it doesn't, so it shouldn't get the same valuation metrics. He isn't saying the stocks aren't cheap, but he says they shouldn't trade back to their highs. Growth alone does not justify it, because cloud growth at Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft has not been paid for.

  “positive free cash flow, and now they don't. So should it get the same valuation metrics as it got before? And I'd say no.”at 16:23

US Treasuries & yields

• Michael Santoli · CNBC

  Treasury yields are trading with AI capex sentiment, not oil, scrambling usual market correlations.

  Santoli says correlations are scrambled. Semis down usually means Apple up, and oil's move would normally push Treasury yields down sharply. Yields have not crashed because they have been trading with AI capex sentiment. He says this keeps investors apprehensive about which relationships to rely on.

  “...treasury yields have been trading with the AI CapEx sentiment.”at 45:50