More Volatility on the Way? 11/3/26

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 53 speakers in other episodes, 45 bullish and 17 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  Nvidia looks attractive on valuation versus growth, and may generate $300B free cash flow in a year.

  Lebenthal says that when he looks at Nvidia's valuation against its growth rates, the stock looks attractive. He accepts Scott's point that the market may be signalling a peak, but he is not worried about it. He expects Nvidia to generate about $300 billion in free cash flow over the next twelve months. He argues that negative free cash flow at Meta and Oracle is creating positive free cash flow elsewhere, a virtuous cycle.

  “The next twelve months, it's likely to generate 300,000,000,000 in free cash flow.”at 11:41

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Nvidia trades at 14x forward earnings, below the S&P value index, so it is not a bubble.

  Brown argues that Nvidia at 14 times forward earnings is selling at a discount to value stocks. The S&P value index trades at about 17.9 times earnings. He uses this to challenge the bubble narrative, because a stock at a discount to the broad value index is not the froth people describe.

  “NVIDIA is 14 times forward earnings. The S and P value index by contrast price earnings is 17.9. So NVIDIA is selling at a discount to value stocks.”at 27:25

Apple

Across the shows: 36 speakers in other episodes, 31 bullish and 29 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBullish

  Apple likely runs in place near term as memory costs pressure margins, but he still sees $400.

  After Apple's report, Terranova sees memory prices as the stock's main challenge. He expects a pass-through effect like the one in diesel, which Apple itself signalled for the coming quarter, so the stock may run in place over the next quarter. He still holds his position and expects it to reach $400 before any stop. He also says the revenue growth revival and safe-haven appeal are attractive, but margin pressure from memory is the key risk.

  “I think you can anticipate that running in place might be as good as you get here over the coming quarter. I said yesterday, I thought we go to 400 before I get stopped out at at $2.75.”at 21:00

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital AdvisorsUncertain

  Apple's Siri AI ramp is still early, and decelerating services growth makes its 36x multiple an issue.

  Snipe says the Siri ramp is still in very early stages and keeps getting pushed out quarter after quarter, which he is watching closely. He also says 36 times forward earnings with decelerating services growth is definitely an issue. Services growth went from 16% two quarters ago to 12% last quarter and 10% this quarter, in line with guidance, and gross margins missed. He is weighing these factors as he evaluates the stock.

  “Siri ramp is still in the very early stages. I feel like we hear that quarter after quarter after quarter. When is that gonna get going?”at 23:24

Uber Technologies

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 0 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBearish

  Uber is a poor pre-earnings long; the market doesn't believe its robotaxi partnership strategy.

  Brown says Uber is one of the worst stocks to buy ahead of an earnings report. Even when results or guidance are well received and the stock jumps 12% to 15%, the gains fade within two weeks. Buybacks aren't large enough to offset investors' doubts that Uber's strategy of seeding autonomous taxi companies will succeed. As a shareholder, Brown says Uber has announced many press releases but has not yet shown results from that strategy.

  “They're not buying back enough stock to offset the fact that nobody believes their strategy to seed all of these other autonomous vehicle... Autonomous taxi companies is going to succeed. And frankly, as a shareholder, they haven't shown us yet.”at 45:15

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital AdvisorsBearish

  Uber faces headwinds from slowing bookings, Uber One and the DoorDash-Instacart threat; he's holding for now.

  Uber has had eight negative weeks out of nine, and Snipe says it needs to show 20% bookings growth and continued momentum in Uber One, the membership program, to win back investors. Uber passed 50 million Uber One users in Q1, but a potential DoorDash acquisition of Instacart is a competitive threat. Snipe says the autonomous-vehicle partnerships have been a good story that hasn't yet shown up in the stock. He is holding the position for now but sees many headwinds.

  “So, I mean, we're holding it for now. We're holding for now. But, again, it's just... There's a lot of headwinds. I mean, all the partnerships for autonomous vehicles, I think, has been a good story, but it just hasn't played through in the stock.”at 46:01

Vertiv Holdings Co

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 5 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBullish

  AI-related industrial stocks like Vertiv rallied on earnings, suggesting the sector has washed out enough.

  Terranova points to strong reactions in AI-linked industrial names. Vertiv rose 15% the day after its earnings and followed through, and he says Quanta, Eaton and GE Vernova had similar responses. He reads this industrial AI segment as evidence that the market has washed out enough to support an optimistic end-of-year bull trend.

  “Look at the response to Vertiv's earnings, plus 15% on the day that followed and subsequent to that follow through.”at 13:19

Anthropic

Across the shows: 84 speakers in other episodes, 101 bullish and 65 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Anthropic could raise another $100B privately, but public-market liquidity matters more to it now.

  Brown notes Anthropic holds about $146 billion of cash from private raises, more than every Mag 7 company except Alphabet, even though it is not generating much free cash flow. He thinks it could raise another $100 billion privately if needed. What it really needs is public-market liquidity, plus the legitimacy and regular SEC filings that come with a public ticker, which he calls as important as the dollars. He says the world is not tapped out, citing Asian and Saudi and UAE capital still investing.

  “Anthropic has more cash on its balance sheet because of all the raising activity they've done in the private market than every company in the MAG seven other than Alphabet.”at 16:36

Teradyne

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBullish

  Teradyne is a reasonably valued semi-equipment buy after a sharp pullback, with 82% revenue growth.

  Terranova says he is personally buying Teradyne. He describes it as a semi-equipment name at an upper-twenties valuation rather than an unreasonable one. He cites its role testing hard-disk drives, data-center memory and AI chips, plus a recent quarter with 82% revenue growth. He has liked the stock for years and sees the pullback from roughly $500 earlier in the year, when it was above $400 more recently, as a chance to get exposure at a reasonable price.

  “And this is not a semi equipment name with an unreasonable valuation. This is an upper twenties valuation.”at 25:13

Apollo Global Management

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  Apollo provides AI build-out financing, so he still likes it despite the Athene loss.

  Lebenthal says he is sticking with Apollo and still likes it. He dislikes the report, including the base earnings and especially the loss at Athene from write-downs in its private-credit investments. He believes the AI build-out will continue and that Apollo is a provider of financing, the 'picks and shovels' alongside Nvidia. He does not think this is the Minsky moment.

  “When we talk about who's providing picks and shovels, yes, Nvidia, but Apollo is providing the financing.”at 31:41

Vertex Pharmaceuticals

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersNeutral

  Vertex earnings were good but not perfect and the stock is priced for perfection; he would hold.

  Terranova says the report was good enough but not perfect, and the stock is clearly priced for perfection. The cystic fibrosis franchise continues to dominate market share and gives the sales line a tailwind. He thinks the post-earnings selloff is mostly a shake-out of recent longs, so he does not plan to get out.

  “This earnings report was good enough, but it wasn't perfect, and this stock is clearly priced for perfection. Do I [plan on] getting out of the stock? I do not believe so.”at 32:13

Expeditors International of Washington

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBullish

  Expeditors is a strong freight broker in extreme demand, with its model benefiting from tariffs.

  Expeditors hit a record high after earnings and revenue beats. Terranova credits it with benefiting, to a degree, from tariffs and from hyperscaler spending. Its model is that of a broker, so it does not carry the cost of owning freight assets. As a result, it is in extreme demand right now.

  “They're acting as a broker, and they are in extreme demand right now.”at 32:53

D.R. Horton

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital AdvisorsBearish

  D.R. Horton is a tough story: mortgage rates and incentives are squeezing its margins.

  After D.R. Horton's earnings miss and guidance, Snipe says the rate story and mortgage rates remain the central driver. Builder giveaways and incentives are pulling away from profit margins. He says the stock has been in review for at least three months and calls the story tough right now, though the market is still following the macro picture and the 10-year yield.

  “Obviously, the rate story, what's going on with mortgage rates, and, you know, the giveaways, the incentives that are kinda pulling away from the... On the profit margin.”at 33:25

Devon Energy

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Devon has a large base and could break out to new highs; he owns it for clients.

  Devon closed a merger with Coterra in May that added a lot of shale assets. The stock primarily moves with oil prices. Yesterday's sharp pullback landed on former support, which Brown calls a good test: if it doesn't break below, he wants to give it the chance to break out to fresh highs. He sees the $52 to $54 level as meaningful and a 'really big base' that could mean more upside, since the bigger the base, the bigger the space above it. Brown's firm holds the stock for clients in its concentrated momentum strategy.

  “[Devon] hasn't broken out yet, but I think this is the one that could go. We do own this for clients in our Porterhouse concentrated momentum strategy, full disclosure.”at 37:59

Occidental Petroleum

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Occidental looks set to break out above its March high; Berkshire ownership and deleveraging support it.

  Berkshire Hathaway owns 26.5% of Occidental, and it holds warrants that are now in the money. Occidental has deleveraged and sold noncore assets like chemicals, becoming a purer oil play. The price has moved sideways and RSI has cooled to 64. Brown says the March high of 67 is the level to watch; a clean breakout there could carry the stock much higher. He notes the stock is not expensive but is vulnerable to a negative oil supply shock.

  “I think the March high of 67 is the level to watch. If we get a clean breakout there, there's no telling what the upside for the stock can be. These are not expensive.”at 39:26

Earnings & corporate profits

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment Partners

  An apocalyptic market needs an earnings recession, which isn't happening, so no crash is imminent.

  Responding to Elliott's warning of a bear market, Terranova says the condition needed for a real crash is an obliteration of earnings that tips the economy into an earnings recession. That is not the situation today, given strong earnings. He acknowledges many headwinds toward 2027 but does not think the apocalyptic moment is upon us anytime soon.

  “I think the other condition that you would need for... to see an obliteration of earnings more than anything else and really to go into an earnings recession. We don't have that.”at 3:04

US growth & recession risk

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity Partners

  Strong fundamentals argue against a Minsky-style crash, despite recurring doom predictions.

  Lebenthal says there is a long history of forecasting the next Minsky moment or Lehman, citing private credit earlier this year and Silicon Valley Bank. Instead of worrying about those, he looks at core fundamentals: low unemployment, strong GDP growth, and strong profit growth even after removing paper gains. He calls this a virtuous cycle of money flowing through the economy, visible in the statistics that matter.

  “Low unemployment, strong GDP growth, strong profit growth even when you take out the paper gains.”at 11:31

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital Advisors

  Data center capex noise should quiet after the midterms, as the money finds a home.

  Snipe says the constant focus on CapEx numbers is posturing ahead of the election. After the votes are counted, he expects that noise to quiet down. He believes the capital committed to AI infrastructure has to find a home, which supports the data center buildout once the political noise ends.

  “Post election, that noise absolutely quiets down. Right? This is all posturing for the election... Once the votes are in and we're done and we're moving on, that money has to find a home.”at 14:42

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital Advisors

  He doesn't expect much more volatility after the midterms beyond a short-run blip.

  Asked whether volatility is coming, Snipe says he doesn't think so, based on the outcome of the election and the market reaction. He allows for some short-run volatility, but over three to six months he expects things to settle down. He is not fully in the camp that everything is clear once the election is over, since Middle East strikes and oil remain risks.

  “I don't think so. I think maybe in the short run, but in the longer term, and I'm talking three to six months out, I think the ball starts to come down some.”at 15:03

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  AI bubble claims look weak: the market topped in July and chip stocks are already in a drawdown.

  Brown argues the market topped in July and that bubbles historically do not coincide with 16 months of multiple contraction. The semiconductor equipment group is 33% below its highs, the SMH is 24% below, and DRAM, which some call the epicenter of the bubble, is 41% below its highs. He says semis are in the same 25% drawdown they were in during the situational awareness episode, but without that catalyst. He concludes people are not frothing over these stocks.

  “It's very hard to have a bubble if no one else is willing to play along. Bubbles aren't historically, at least, known to coincide with sixteen months of multiple contraction.”at 26:43

US stock market outlook

• Michael Santoli · CNBC

  Nasdaq 100 must rebound soon after the election or the selloff may be something worse.

  Santoli argues the market is sold out and sentiment and positioning have been reset, so a sharp decline now looks like a bull-market gut check that needs a response. The Nasdaq 100's RSI is back where it was at the late-July low, though not as oversold as at the March 30 low. He says the Nasdaq 100 should respond soon if the market gets through the election, and that otherwise a worse problem may be developing. A rebound in semis and the AI trade would need roughly a 10% rally in the semiconductor index and about 5% in the Nasdaq 100 to be more than a reflex bounce. He says the defensives have done what they can and rotation back into growth is needed.

  “It's time for the Nasdaq one hundred to respond pretty soon if we get through the election. If it doesn't do that, I would say maybe we're dealing with a little bit something worse.”at 41:52