Post-Midterm Playbook 11/4/26

Marvell Technology

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 4 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBullish

  Marvell's multiple compressed to 24x on 40%+ EPS growth; buying the acquisition-driven dip.

  Baruch's fund added Marvell as a new name at $225 and added more after the acquisition-driven drop, which took the stock 30% off last week's high. He says the company's numbers are strong, with its multiple compressed from 45 to 24, EPS growing about 40% year over year and 78% over the next twelve months. He likes the deal, which he expects to add photonics, but says it is a headwind for Broadcom.

  “the company itself is great numbers. I mean, their multiples compressed from 45 to 24. They're growing EPS four... 40% year over year. Next twelve months, it's 78%.”at 23:46

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital PartnersBearish

  Marvell's defensive acquisition dilutes shareholders and was bought near the peak.

  Weiss says the stock will sit in no man's land until the deal closes, with heavy merger arbitrage in the meantime. He argues the acquisition is defensive and significantly dilutes Marvell shareholders, and that the company bought something close to the market peak.

  “It's gonna be in no man's land until the deal closes. There's gonna be heavy arb on into it, and you've significantly diluted the Marvell shareholders because of defensive acquisition.”at 25:02

Apple

Across the shows: 48 speakers in other episodes, 54 bullish and 37 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital PartnersBullish

  Apple's lack of data center spending creates a moat versus capex-heavy rivals.

  Weiss notes Apple has not spent on data centers, while Meta and others have. If a data center build-out is needed to hit revenue targets, that spending is off the table for Apple. He sees this as another moat, which is why the stock is holding up as capex-heavy peers struggle.

  “So Apple, they haven't spent on data centers. They haven't done any of that. So you've created another moat around them.”at 7:14

Advanced Micro Devices

Across the shows: 11 speakers in other episodes, 11 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersUncertain

  AMD guidance is strong but the intraday price reaction is poor and he dislikes it.

  Terranova sees a really strong Q4 guidance from AMD but terrible intraday price action, which he says he does not like on a day when the market is so strong. He ties the weak reaction to the changing dynamic in the market, where momentum is down and quality is up.

  “I see really strong q four guidance, and I see terrible intraday price action. I don't like that reaction.”at 21:29

FTAI Aviation

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital PartnersBullish

  FTAI Aviation is dirt cheap; ex data-center power business it trades near 10x earnings.

  Weiss holds a full position in FTAI and plans to buy more because the stock is dirt cheap. The core engine repair, maintenance and build business drives earnings. The selloff came from its data-center power generation unit, which has $2.5 billion of confirmed orders. Excluding that, he says the stock trades at about 10 times next year's earnings.

  “I look at FTAI aviation, for example, and I'll buy more. It's pretty full position, but the stock is dirt cheap.”at 25:20

McDonald's

Across the shows: 6 speakers in other episodes, 4 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBullish

  McDonald's bottom is in; staple-like name that benefits from falling rates.

  Baruch's fund bought McDonald's recently while selling tech. He says sentiment on the name was bludgeoned and everyone hated it. He treats it as a staple-like rotation trade, notes its real estate business benefits from rates coming down, and expects a strong 2027.

  “I think the bottom's in at McDonald's, and I think we could see this. We have a great 2027.”at 28:45

Amgen

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Rob Sluymer · Fundstrat Global AdvisorsBullish

  Amgen is firing on all cylinders; very big fan of its drug pipeline.

  Sluymer says Amgen beat on the top and bottom lines and raised its full-year outlook, and it is firing on all cylinders. Democrats are likely to push more subsidies for managed care, but he is a big fan of Amgen and its pipeline.

  “very big fan of Amgen and the pipeline of drugs that they have.”at 29:32

Suncor Energy

• Rob Sluymer · Fundstrat Global AdvisorsBullish

  Suncor is doing well; oil price is not near levels that would pressure it.

  Sluymer says Suncor beat earnings and raised its dividend, and is doing really well with its Canadian oil sands business. Oil prices are not near a level that would pressure the company yet.

  “we're not near at a price level for oil where there's gonna be any pressure on them yet.”at 29:52

Moderna

Across the shows: 5 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital PartnersBullish

  Moderna is ahead of itself on biotech momentum but deserves the rally long term.

  Weiss owns Moderna as a big position. He says the stock is ahead of itself and rising mainly on momentum in the biotech trade, which he calls a play by people chasing a different sector than data centers. He still thinks it deserves the move at the end game because of its 39-drug and vaccine pipeline.

  “it's ahead of itself, and I own it. It's a big position, but it's just momentum of the biotech trade that keeps driving it.”at 31:14

Edwards Lifesciences

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBullish

  Edwards Lifesciences is a multiyear compounder that was asleep and is now breaking out.

  Baruch's fund owns Edwards Lifesciences. He describes it as a multiyear compounder that has been asleep and is only now breaking out. He expects good years ahead, making it a name that could really work.

  “Edwards Lifesciences. I mean, that's been a multiyear compounder, and it's been asleep. We own the name, and it's really just breaking out right now.”at 31:27

Rocket Companies

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 0 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBullish

  Rocket is a leader to benefit from falling rates via refinancing demand; bought it after a 30% YTD drop.

  Rocket's light, refinance-heavy business model benefits from lower rates, unlike homebuilders, which depend on new-home mortgages. Refinancing homes is a big tailwind as rates come down. The stock is down about 30% on the year, including a 10% rally off the lows, and reported a solid earnings report last week. Baruch's fund bought it and he expects it to lead to the upside if rates keep falling.

  “It's refinances, refinancing homes. And so that's gonna be a big tailwind as rates come down. I think Rocket's in a great position to capitalize.”at 37:51

Host Hotels & Resorts

• Rob Sluymer · Fundstrat Global AdvisorsBullish

  Host Hotels is a top-end K-shaped consumer beneficiary that will keep doing well in this market.

  Host sits at the top of the K-shaped recovery, where affluent consumers keep spending. Its luxury brands (Ritz-Carlton, Hyatt, Marriott) position it well for this market. The stock is up 50% since the team added it last December. The balance sheet has repaired significantly since COVID, and the company has reinstated a dividend and put a buyback in place.

  “Incredible k shaped beneficiary. Obviously, the top of the k. It's up 50% since we added it last December... They continue to be very well positioned for this market with brands like Ritz Carlton, Hyatt Marriott. We think they're gonna continue to do well.”at 39:17

Cummins

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersUncertain

  Cummins is near a one-year low on pressure, but its power-generation push gives it AI data-center exposure.

  Cummins is down about 5% and near a one-year low, which Terranova says is not a good sign right now. He argues the stock is part of the AI story because it has diversified into power generation over the last 18 months. That gives it participation in the AI data-center buildout, so the pullback is punishing a company whose business has improved. The near-term price action is weak, but the AI exposure is a real positive.

  “Basically, now it's not looking good... It's about power generation and they have diversified their business model... you'll see the benefit from that participation in the AI data center build out, but now being punished on the other side down 5%.”at 39:49

Parker-Hannifin

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBullish

  Parker Hannifin's revenue should come in strong, up nearly 20%, though aerospace supply constraints are a risk.

  Terranova expects the upcoming report, due before the bell the next day, to show strong revenue growth of nearly 20%. The main challenge is supply constraints specific to the aerospace industry, which could limit how much of that demand gets converted into sales.

  “Look. The revenue is gonna come in strong, nearly up 20%. The challenge might be, though, some supply constraints specific to the aerospace industry.”at 41:16

Amazon.com

Across the shows: 40 speakers in other episodes, 52 bullish and 10 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Rob Sluymer · Fundstrat Global AdvisorsBullish

  Amazon is a buy because existing compute capacity will be more valuable tomorrow than it is today.

  Sluymer's final trade pick is Amazon, based on the claim that existing compute capacity will become more valuable. He does not give numbers, but the argument is that demand for compute is rising faster than supply, so capacity already built on Amazon's cloud platform gains value.

  “Got Amazon. Existing compute capacity is going to be more valuable tomorrow than it is today.”at 41:55

Coeur Mining

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBullish

  Coeur Mining is beaten down with a lot of upside as gold and silver rally; its upcoming report should be strong.

  The stock has been beaten down even though gold and silver are rallying, which Baruch sees as a setup with a lot of upside. The company reports after the bell that day. Its recent misses were driven by one-off events, so he expects a strong report this time.

  “[CDE, Coeur.] This stock has been beaten down, piggybacking our conversation in gold and silver. There's a lot of upside here. They report after the bell today, and they last missed their reports with these one off events.”at 42:06

US stock market outlook

• Rob Sluymer · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  Mega-cap rollover would be the biggest catalyst for lower rates via the wealth effect.

  Sluymer argues that spending is funded from portfolios, so the wealth effect from the largest index constituents has supported consumption. He sees a rollover in those leaders as the biggest catalyst for getting rates down, which he calls a sad one.

  “I do think the biggest catalyzer for getting rates down is a sad one, and that's the rollover of the largest constituents in the indices because that has a wealth effect that has supported spend.”at 15:40

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment Partners

  Market is rotating away from the AI trade into consumer discretionary, housing and broader areas.

  Terranova argues the market is doing what it has done all year, rotating. It is moving away from the AI trade, where data center build-out was the catalyst, and broadening into consumer discretionary and housing stocks like Pulte and Lennar, along with Nike.

  “it's rotating away, to your point, from that AI trade that had the data center build out being the catalyst for it, and it's broadening... out to other areas.”at 17:14

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital Partners

  Market is arguably too high because sector reactions to tariffs are not well deserved.

  Weiss says the market is arguably too high, and that the reaction in each of these areas is not well deserved. He points out that Trump never went to Congress to get approval for his tariffs, so the market is pricing in an end to tariff risk that may not hold.

  “Today, the market's arguably, I think, too high.”at 18:05

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line Capital

  Post-midterm rally is off to the races if S&P futures close above 7,800.

  Baruch says the clearing event has happened, with the election removing uncertainty. He frames a close above 7,800 in S&P futures as the signal that the market is off to the races, with that level as the low end for the year, before the post-midterm rally. The S&P was down about 2% the prior night and the Nasdaq tested its 200-day moving average.

  “If we see the S and P futures close above 7,800, I have to say we're off the races, and that's a low end for the year, and the post midterm rally is gonna take place.”at 19:23

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital Partners

  Democratic win signals capex constraints; the AI trade is not an all-clear.

  Weiss says the market reads the Democratic victory as forced control on capex. A moratorium on new data centers, especially in Texas where about 30% of projects are, would stop companies spending what they committed. That explains the drops in Nvidia and TSMC and the strength of hyperscalers, so the AI trade is not back on.

  “The market is seeing the democratic victory as forced control on capex.”at 5:05

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line Capital

  Election uncertainty is removed; hyperscalers benefit as data center capex is reined in.

  Baruch agrees with Weiss that data center capex is being reined in, which is why hyperscalers are capitalizing today. He notes semiconductors have struggled for months and that the election result removed uncertainty. He expects the data center noise to fade once the midterms pass.

  “I do agree with one thing that Steve said, which was the CapEx being reined in. I mean, this build out, and that's why the hyperscalers are certainly capitalizing today.”at 8:00

• Rob Sluymer · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  Already-built, contracted compute beats new builds; chips face pressure if buildout slows.

  Sluymer argues that compute already built and contracted is favored over compute still being built, and scale, political capital and flexible capital allocation favor incumbents. He adds that a slower data center build-out will pressure chips, since chip sellers rely on that ecosystem, while those with build-out ecosystems keep premium pricing.

  “It's clear that those that have the compute being built out currently and already contracted, compute are favored over those building out the compute.”at 11:36

US rates & the Fed

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment Partners

  Divided government lets the Fed fight inflation without White House pushback.

  Terranova argues the election result is very good for the Federal Reserve. With Congress and the Senate backing the Fed rather than the president pushing back, he says the central bank has room to fight inflation if needed, which he calls a direct hit on inflation.

  “I also think this is obviously very good for the Federal Reserve. I think this allows them the opportunity to fight inflation if they need to, not with the brush back from the president and his administration.”at 2:32

• Rob Sluymer · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  Data doesn't support continued rate easing; oil alone won't drive rates lower.

  Sluymer says the lower-oil-means-lower-rates argument relies on big ifs. Oil is not the only input to pricing; spending, the labor market and similar factors matter. He says the data does not yet support continued rate easing, though it might.

  “The data doesn't support continued rate easing. It doesn't yet. It might.”at 15:22

Oil & fuels

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment Partners

  Energy fever has broken; oil unlikely to return to $100, so pare back energy positioning.

  Terranova argues the post-election reaction and softer inflation are already showing in energy prices. He says the energy trade's fever has broken and he would be very surprised to see oil return to $100, so investors should reduce energy exposure.

  “I think the fever has broken in the energy trade. I would be very surprised to see oil spike back up to a $100 once again. I think it's time to pair back positioning in energy.”at 2:18

Middle East & Iran

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital Partners

  Trump more likely than not to act aggressively on Iran before Democrats take Congress.

  Weiss argues Trump has about two months before Democrats take Congress and needs a victory. He thinks an aggressive Iran move is more likely than not, which would push oil and rates up and damp the inflation and rate-cut story. He calls it a likely black swan.

  “I think it's more likely than not they do something aggressive with Iran. Okay? It's the one victory he has to hold on to.”at 4:21

Power demand & the grid

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment Partners

  Industrial power names face a paradigm shift and won't recover soon despite his long position.

  Terranova says the election outcome, with the Texas governor losing, clearly hurts the industrial power names. He holds them through an ETF and says they are down more than 10% today. He does not expect a quick recovery because of a paradigm shift in the data center power trade, even though he sees the lower-oil narrative supporting the market through year-end.

  “Without question, it affects the industrial power names. ... I'm long those names via the ETF. They're all [down] more than 10% today. Do I think they're gonna recover anytime soon? No. Because there's been this paradigm shift.”at 16:28

Healthcare system & insurers

• Rob Sluymer · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  Election results are a net positive for healthcare despite likely managed care subsidy push.

  Sluymer says the entire health care space is a net positive from the election results. He acknowledges Democrats are likely to push more subsidies and outlays for managed care, but argues the upside outweighs that.

  “the entire health care space, it's a net positive, the election results.”at 29:04

Defense

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment Partners

  Defense names have lost momentum; expects them to move sideways to lower.

  Terranova says most defense names can no longer be called momentum names and now rely on their quality factor. He points to challenges in the defense spending budget that will affect the stocks, so he expects them to move sideways to lower.

  “most of the defense names could no longer be characterized as momentum names. They're relying on their quality factor themselves... I see these moving just sideways to lower.”at 30:09