The AI Trade in Focus: Altimeter's Brad Gerstner joins "Halftime Report" live in San Francisco 10/15/26

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 15 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 16 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBearish

  CoreWeave's $50B debt leaves it vulnerable as higher rates hurt weak balance sheets.

  Link says higher rates will hurt the players with bad balance sheets, and she cites CoreWeave's roughly $50B of debt as a leading example. She contrasts these leveraged names with cash generators that have fallen as much but are opportunities.

  “Rates certainly gonna hurt some of the bad players that have bad balance sheets. Core Weave has 50,000,000,000 in debt.”at 9:06

• Brad Gerstner · Altimeter CapitalBullish

  CoreWeave's debt is mostly cheap and GPU-secured; buying equity and debt looks attractive now.

  Gerstner says most of the reporting on CoreWeave's debt is misinformation. The 15% figure is the public mark on about 20% of its debt, which it still pays about 9% on, while roughly 80% of what it borrows is secured by GPUs and is rock solid and relatively cheap. He calls the management team one of the best in the business and praises its partnerships with Nvidia. He sees the selloff as a washout, with weak hands from venture-backed and pulled IPOs being shaken out, and says he would buy the stock today. He does not own it currently.

  “I think there's probably opportunity today in CoreWeave in both the equity and the debt.”at 26:29

Anthropic

Across the shows: 37 speakers in other episodes, 15 bullish and 39 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Brad Gerstner · Altimeter CapitalBullish

  Anthropic's IPO could draw over $500B of demand; the stock would do fine.

  Gerstner says the mood in the room at Anthropic's investor day was very bullish, and the information he has gathered makes him more bullish on Anthropic, its IPO and the road ahead. He benchmarks the SpaceX IPO, which he says had about $100B offered and roughly $350B of demand, and expects Anthropic's offering, targeted before Thanksgiving pending the S-1 flip, to draw over $500B. He argues the IPO price matters little to holders over a year or two, and that retail investors, long-only and mutual funds and sovereigns should get the chance to buy.

  “I suspect here you would have over $500,000,000,000 of demand for this offering. So I think the stock would do fine.”at 17:36

• Brad Gerstner · Altimeter CapitalBullish

  Anthropic will be an enduring great company, and its IPO could come within weeks.

  Gerstner calls an Anthropic IPO this year his non-consensus trade, despite negative chatter. He argues that the Google and Amazon of this era have become clearer to him, and that Anthropic will be one of the enduring great companies in the country over the next decade. Asked for timing, he says he thinks the IPO is weeks away rather than months.

  “If we have an Anthropic IPO this year, right, that's my trade. It's nonconsensus... I think Anthropic will be one of the enduring and great companies in the country... I think we're talking, you know, weeks, not not months.”at 50:12

Snowflake

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Brad Gerstner · Altimeter CapitalBullish

  Data platforms differ from application software, so Snowflake deserves to be owned despite the software selloff.

  Gerstner says he has kept Snowflake as one of his biggest personal holdings even though his hedge fund no longer owns it. He argues that IGV treats all software as equal when it is not, and that the data platform is structurally different from application software. He cites the stock being up about 50% this year as evidence that the thesis has worked so far.

  “It's one of my biggest personal holdings. So great job this year. Stock's up 50%. ... part of the reason that I continued to own it in a big way was this difference between you talk about IGV as though all software is created equal.”at 42:34

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Enterprises running agentic workflows directly on data is a recent awakening that should lift Snowflake's share price.

  Brown says enterprises have woken up in roughly the last three months to running agentic flows directly in the data, rather than on layers built on top of it. He believes this shift has already helped the share price. He says he owns the stock and asks why a CIO would choose Snowflake over Databricks, implying the agent-deployment decision could be a further catalyst.

  “Yes. I am bullish, and I love this awakening that's taken place this this year, probably mostly in the last three months, where enterprises can run agentic flows directly in the data.”at 43:41

Oracle

Across the shows: 17 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 13 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBearish

  Oracle's $167B of debt leaves it exposed to higher rates, unlike cash-generating chip makers.

  Link names Oracle with about $167B of debt as a company that higher rates will hurt. She treats it as a weak balance sheet, unlike cash generators such as Nvidia and Broadcom that she sees as opportunities.

  “[Oracle] has [a] 167,000,000,000 in debt. So sure, higher rates are gonna hurt them, but you've got cash generators, that are actually down just as much that are opportunities.”at 9:06

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 32 speakers in other episodes, 27 bullish and 9 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Nvidia is a healthy cash generator caught in AI-concern selloff; an opportunity.

  Link argues that healthy companies such as Nvidia, Broadcom and Micron are getting caught up in a tailwind of concern. Their stocks have fallen as much as the weaker names, though they generate cash, and she expects opportunities in tech as well as beyond it. She says hyperscaler spending has not changed.

  “NVIDIA and Broadcom, Micron, and I will get to all of them later, but you have very healthy companies that are getting caught up in this tailwind of just concern, and I think you're gonna see opportunities in tech as well as beyond tech.”at 9:19

Broadcom

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Broadcom is a healthy cash generator caught in AI-concern selloff; an opportunity.

  Link groups Broadcom with Nvidia and Micron as healthy companies that have been caught in the tailwind of concern. She argues their cash generation and the selloff create opportunities, while hyperscaler spending has not changed.

  “NVIDIA and Broadcom, Micron, and I will get to all of them later, but you have very healthy companies that are getting caught up in this tailwind of just concern.”at 9:19

Micron Technology

Across the shows: 13 speakers in other episodes, 10 bullish and 5 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Micron is a healthy cash generator caught in AI-concern selloff; an opportunity.

  Link groups Micron with Nvidia and Broadcom as healthy companies that have been caught in the tailwind of concern. She argues their fundamentals and the selloff create opportunities, while hyperscaler spending has not changed.

  “NVIDIA and Broadcom, Micron, and I will get to all of them later, but you have very healthy companies that are getting caught up in this tailwind of just concern.”at 9:19

Palantir Technologies

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Palantir's accelerating revenue growth shows fundamentals improving through the selloff; the setup is bullish above $1.66.

  Brown says Palantir's fundamentals kept improving while the stock fell as much as 85% and then halved into June during the SaaS selloff. Revenue growth has accelerated for nine straight quarters, from 27% in mid-2024 to 93% last quarter, and US commercial is exploding. He adds a technical view: $1.66 is the line where both September lows held, the RSI is about 63 and not overextended, so the setup could work for a longer-term holder, while warning the stock is a roller coaster.

  “Revenue growth has now accelerated, accelerated, not just grown, for nine straight quarters. ... Last quarter, 93% growth. Their US commercial business is absolutely exploding.”at 47:50

CrowdStrike Holdings

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Malcolm Ethridge · Capital Area Planning GroupBullish

  CrowdStrike is a buy because large banks are spending heavily on cyber vulnerabilities.

  Ethridge picks CrowdStrike as his final trade. He points to his earlier comments that Bank of America has spent a couple of hundred million dollars in six months addressing cyber vulnerabilities. He implies that enterprise spending on cyber defence, which is rising sharply, supports CrowdStrike.

  “I'm gonna go CrowdStrike, and I'll point you to my previous comments about BofA spending a couple 100,000,000 in six months to address cyber vulnerabilities.”at 50:46

Wells Fargo & Company

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 6 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Wells Fargo's turnaround is beginning after a solid quarter, and the stock is very cheap.

  Link bought Wells Fargo after it reported earnings. She judged the quarter solid and said the turnaround is definitely beginning. She also says the stock is very cheap, which is the basis for her buying.

  “So I bought after they reported earnings. I thought it was a solid quarter. The turnaround is definitely beginning, and the stock is very cheap.”at 51:05

Netflix

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Netflix offers good risk-reward near $67, forming a double bottom and acting defensively.

  Brown likes Netflix as a trade from a risk-reward standpoint. He says the stock has formed a double bottom around $67 and is acting defensively on red days for the Nasdaq. Scott Wapner notes the trade could risk about five points, with earnings due next week.

  “I actually like it as a trade from a risk reward standpoint. 67, now a double bottom. Stock is acting defensively on red days for the Nasdaq.”at 51:18

Frontier AI labs & model race

• Brad Gerstner · Altimeter Capital

  Anthropic's revenue far beat early-year forecasts, driven by Claude Code; growth should continue.

  Gerstner points to Anthropic's forecast at the start of the year of about $30B, against reports that it is now doing at least $100B, as evidence that AI revenues exploded this year. He credits the Opus 4.5 breakthrough in December with leading to Claude Code, which he says replaced software engineers and drove the revenue, and argues all of the revenue derives from model capability. He agrees with Nvidia's Jensen Huang that revenue should at least double next year, since the labs' completed models will unlock further products like Claude Code.

  “Remember, the forecast for Anthropic at the start of this year, $30,000,000,000. Now a lot of the reports have them doing at least a $100,000,000,000.”at 2:40

• Brad Gerstner · Altimeter Capital

  Frontier labs' lead is widening, not shrinking, because they will add the most compute next year.

  Gerstner says the consensus view that the frontier lead is shrinking is wrong. He calls this the most competitive market in technology, with many open-source and new entrants posting results. He argues that the labs have models finished internally that are generations ahead of released open-source models, which is why they can claim benchmark results. He points to recursive loops of intelligence accelerating and notes that intelligence is the log of compute, and that the frontier labs are adding the most compute next year.

  “And I am on the exact opposite side of that. When you think about recursive loops of intelligence, they increase at an accelerating rate. And intelligence is the log of compute. These guys are adding the most compute next year.”at 20:16

Enterprise AI adoption & AI software

• Malcolm Ethridge · Capital Area Planning Group

  The next AI leg will be led by enterprises using AI to do more with less, not chips or hyperscalers.

  Ethridge argues the market may be changing leaders, with the next leg of AI driven by companies beneath the surface rather than chips, neoclouds or hyperscalers. He cites Bank of America, which has added about a thousand people to its cybersecurity group and expects about $700 million of savings next year from deploying AI across the bank, as one example among thousands of global enterprises. He sees that as where investors should look.

  “They're the companies that are really going to weaponize the AI technology as it's being constructed right now, and they're going to figure out ways to do a lot more with a lot less.”at 10:18

• Brad Gerstner · Altimeter Capital

  Every business will use AI; about half of usage will be frontier models, 20-30% open source.

  Gerstner says the AI market is massive and just beginning. He argues every company, large or small, will use AI, with about 20-30% of usage going to open-source models and about 50% over time going to frontier models used by large companies such as Lilly and Bristol. He draws on twenty-five years of market experience to call this the largest opportunity he has seen.

  “There is not a single person or a single company, small, medium, or large, that's not going to use AI.”at 24:29

US–China AI & chip race

• Brad Gerstner · Altimeter Capital

  Chinese distillation of US frontier models is a national security threat; Anthropic is working to stop it.

  Gerstner says there has been significant discussion in Washington about labs cutting back on distillation, mostly by Chinese models running millions and billions of dollars of queries against US models. Those queries generate revenue, but they let competitors catch up, which he calls a national security threat. He says Anthropic is devoting significant compute and intellectual resources to stopping this, led by Dario Amodei. He estimates that if this shifts five to 7% of revenue, billions would move from Q2 into Q3, which could change how the quarter's numbers look.

  “There's been a lot of conversation in Washington and other places about the need for the labs themselves to cut back on the distillation. This is Chinese models mostly running lots, millions and billions of dollars of queries against these models, which generate revenue.”at 18:37

• Brad Gerstner · Altimeter Capital

  If China gets to frontier AI first, the US is not safe, so the US must stay ahead.

  Gerstner argues that there is no safety off the frontier. If the US ends up in second place and China reaches frontier AI first, he says the US cannot be safe. He notes that Xi and Trump have met twice this year and that AI was discussed, and says he is hopeful about coordination. He still treats the race as central and does not treat the coordination as a substitute for US leadership.

  “There is no safety off the frontier. If we end up in second place, if China gets there first, I can guarantee we're not safe.”at 35:56

AI regulation & safety

• Brad Gerstner · Altimeter Capital

  US already has layered AI oversight; calls for an FDA-style AI regulator misread the situation.

  Gerstner argues the US is not ignoring AI safety. A Commerce Department-led framework reviews every frontier model before release, and the US has pulled a frontier model from production earlier this year. The White House superintelligence accord is a Sarbanes-Oxley-style approach with audits and board oversight, though nonbinding, and a third body led by Jay Clayton will oversee critical industries and cyber. He says senators who call for an FDA for AI ignore this work. He accepts that some of this may be codified into law later, and that the framework will evolve, but says the right steps were taken quickly.

  “We have a frontier model review framework, that is led by the commerce department. Every frontier model is gonna get reviewed before it gets released.”at 32:20

• Brad Gerstner · Altimeter Capital

  A central FDA-style regulator for AI would set the US back; no group has the right answer.

  Gerstner says AI governance needs to be thoughtful and developed collectively, but no single group of humans has the platonic truth on how to set it up. He rejects the idea of an FDA-style regulator that issues the rules for running AI, arguing it would slow progress. He suggests the most capable people to monitor AI are the models' own cyber capabilities.

  “Do I think there's an FDA for AI that can give us the 10 commandments on how we run? No. I think that'll set us back.”at 35:29

US Treasuries & yields

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  Rising yields are driven by AI-related corporate bond supply, not oil or inflation.

  Brown says the week's evidence answered why rates have climbed since June. A hot PPI and CPI did not move bonds, which fell when investors expected more bond supply from CoreWeave, neoclouds and incumbents building data centers. The five-year and ten-year yield spike looked like a blow-off top, which shows how much of the rise comes from too many corporate bonds. He argues that if the AI buildout slows, as Nebius and CoreWeave stock prices suggest, rates would come down.

  “I think, what we learned yesterday was the latter is a really big driver of rates.”at 6:04

US stock market outlook

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  Money is rotating out of AI into health care, staples and housing; investors should look elsewhere.

  Brown points to the market action of the day, with everything other than AI catching a big bid, including health care and even staples, and housing-related plays moving higher. He says the rotation shows investors seeking opportunities outside AI and suggests they avoid adding another semiconductor name and look elsewhere.

  “Everything other than AI caught a big bid from health care to even staples.”at 6:55

US growth & recession risk

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  US economy still growing north of 3% despite higher rates and inflation; growth broadens beyond tech.

  Link says the economy keeps growing in the face of higher rates and inflation. She cites strong retail sales and a four-week average of initial jobless claims at 198,000, the lowest since 1969. She also points to manufacturing regional surveys such as the Philly and Empire Fed, arguing many good things are happening beyond tech and AI.

  “the economy continues to grow. In the face of higher rates and higher inflation, we're still growing north of 3%.”at 7:56

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  AI is not dead; hyperscaler spending of about $1 trillion has not changed.

  Link argues the AI trade is not over and there has been no change in the roughly $1 trillion of spending from hyperscalers. She says the sell-off in semiconductors reflects concern rather than a change in the spending outlook.

  “I do not think that AI and the food chain... I don't think it's dead. We haven't seen any kind of change in the $1,000,000,000,000 spend that we're seeing from the hyperscalers.”at 8:37

Banks

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  Bank earnings were a bit sloppy, but outside capital markets and M&A, the other businesses are humming.

  Link says this week's bank earnings were a little sloppy. Outside capital markets and M&A, the rest of the businesses are humming. She notes that Morgan Stanley was up 25% at one point this year and is now flat, so valuations are coming down.

  “I thought the bank earnings this week, yeah, a little sloppy. But outside of capital markets and m and a, the rest of the businesses are humming.”at 8:37

AI: overall outlook

• Brad Gerstner · Altimeter Capital

  AI is accelerating via recursive loops; Claude Code-style breakthroughs will spread across industries in 2027.

  Gerstner argues AI is accelerating because it has entered a recursive loop in which machines build most of the code (he cites 80-90%) that drives the next product release, which some call the singularity. He expects this to show up in 2027, after the Opus 4.5 breakthrough that led to Claude Code. He argues that similar breakthroughs are coming for cyber, knowledge work, bio and materials science, creating Claude Code moments across many industries.

  “I think it's accelerating. It's accelerating because we're entering a recursive loop where the machine is building more of what comes next.”at 13:16

AI pricing & unit economics

• Brad Gerstner · Altimeter Capital

  Labs will cut lower-tier model prices to match open source but keep premium frontier pricing.

  Gerstner argues each model generation gets much more capable on the same compute, so labs can either keep the margin or share it back to compete. He cites AWS, which cut prices about 100 times over ten years to expand its moat and benefit both customers and itself. He expects closed-source lower-tier models such as Haiku and Sonnet to become as cheap as or cheaper than open-source alternatives, while frontier intelligence should still command high prices.

  “What I would say is look at their lower level of models, Haiku and Sonnet. They're going to have closed source models that are cheap... As cheap as or cheaper than the open source models.”at 22:22

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Brad Gerstner · Altimeter Capital

  AI stock churn and consolidation avoid bubbles and separate winners from losers via multiples.

  Gerstner says the churn and consolidation in AI stocks is healthy and avoids bubbles. He cites CoreWeave, which went from an IPO near $30 to about $180 when the market gave it an AI multiple, and is now around $60 as investors treat it as a GPU rental business that should not carry the multiple of Anthropic or SpaceX. He sees that repricing as the market separating winners from losers and applying appropriate multiples.

  “And that is the type of market behavior that we want. It's separating winners from losers. It's applying appropriate multiples.”at 28:04

Software & SaaS

• Sridhar Ramaswamy · Snowflake

  AI has industrialised software creation, so there will be far more software from fewer, more effective players.

  Ramaswamy argues that software creation has changed fundamentally. Software has gone from a few people crafting it slowly to something that can be mass-produced. He expects a large increase in the volume of software, with fewer players able to deliver it effectively to consumers and enterprises, and draws an analogy to how media was transformed.

  “The act of software creation is just fundamentally different... software has become industrialized... There's going to be lots and lots of software, and there are going to be fewer players”at 41:11