Halftime Report Celebrates 15 Years 10/7/26

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 12 speakers in other episodes, 11 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementNeutral

  Nvidia's multiple keeps contracting despite strong earnings; the stock refuses to move higher.

  Josh says that for S&P 500 companies, the better the earnings, the more the multiple contracts when the stock refuses to move. He calls Nvidia a perfect example, noting there are 50 semiconductor stocks he could cite. He is describing a pattern of multiple compression rather than making a call, and he does not argue that the stock is a bubble.

  “the better the company's earnings, the more the multiple contracts when it refuses to move. And I think, like, Nvidia is a perfect example”at 3:21

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Nvidia is the number one company in its industry, bought at about 18x forward estimates after it was left for dead.

  Stephanie bought Nvidia in July when the stock was around $200 and widely seen as left for dead. She argues you could get it at about 18 times forward estimates, and that it is the number one company in the industry with a huge product set. She applies her best-in-breed-on-sale approach here, buying when the market-leading company falls on macro scares.

  “That brought me to Nvidia in July when the stock was at $200 and everyone thought it was left for dead. ... You can get this stock at 18 times forward estimates, and it's the number one company in the industry”at 24:05

Berkshire Hathaway

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBearish

  Berkshire is too low-beta for a breaking-out market, so he cut it in half for more upside.

  Baruch had added to Berkshire in June when it was getting cash back to work through its Alphabet investment. The stock jumped into early August but then showed no follow-through. He calls it a low-beta name, and with the S&P setting fresh highs, he wants something with more punch. He cut Berkshire in half and redeployed the capital into Morgan Stanley. The view is relative: he thinks the stock will lag the market's breakout.

  “It's a low beta name at the end of the day... We want something with a little more punch in it, so we cut Berkshire in half.”at 43:44

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Berkshire is a diversified, well-run stock he has never sold; he holds it like a fund.

  Brown says Berkshire has been a stalwart and has been dismissed for a decade or more with a million reasons it wouldn't work. He has never sold it. He describes it as so well diversified and well run that each component contributes, so he treats it like an ETF or mutual fund rather than a single stock. He is not selling it despite Berkshire trimming its own position in the same segment.

  “It is the type of stock where they told you a million reasons why it wouldn't work for the last ten or fifteen years. I've never sold it.”at 45:03

Advanced Micro Devices

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital PartnersBearish

  AMD's valuation multiple is not reasonable, unlike the trading levels seen in defense stocks.

  Steve says he was going through stocks and sees defense names trading at lows, while some tech multiples are stretched. He picks AMD as an example and says its multiple is not reasonable. He gives no earnings or growth numbers, so the argument rests on his view of the multiple itself.

  “But the multiple in tech stocks, some of them like an AMD, I mean, come on. That's not a reasonable multiple.”at 11:34

Spotify Technology

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Spotify's stock sell-off is unjustified; fundamentals keep beating, and it was dragged down by media-stock contagion.

  Brown says he cannot understand why the stock has been treated this way, because there has been nothing negative fundamentally each time Spotify reports, with results getting better every quarter. He attributes the downtrend to the stock being caught in a vortex with other media stocks, not company-specific problems. He notes the stock now seems to be stabilizing and hopes for a breakout.

  “there's been nothing negative fundamentally every time they report. It's good news, better news, even better news.”at 38:39

ServiceTitan

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  ServiceTitan is a strong AI-platform story; its sell-off is a short-term hiccup and he is staying long.

  Brown says ServiceTitan keeps reporting great news and is pushing users onto its AI platform. Users on that platform are stickier and getting strong results. He calls the recent slowdown a short-term earnings hiccup that almost doesn't matter. He argues the stock was thrown out with software-sector bathwater even though the underlying concept is very powerful. He says he will stay long despite a drawdown of more than 20% from its highs.

  “The users on the AI platform are stickier and having great results.”at 39:28

Coinbase Global

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Coinbase is on its way to becoming an 'everything exchange', with higher-margin subscriptions diversifying its transaction revenue.

  Link keeps only small crypto exposure because of volatility, but likes exchanges because they need a buyer and a seller. Bitcoin's price is up nicely from its lows. She notes transactions are still about 50% of revenue, but Coinbase is building subscriptions and services, which carry higher margins. In her view the company wants to be the everything exchange and is on its way.

  “I like what they're doing in terms of not just being transaction oriented, which is 50% of the revenues, but they're doing more subscriptions and services, which is higher margin business.”at 40:03

Morgan Stanley

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBullish

  Morgan Stanley is a strong entry point: wealth and alternatives growth is robust and the stock is down 20% from its high.

  Baruch bought Morgan Stanley as a new position with the capital from cutting Berkshire. He acknowledges headwinds from investment banking and IPO delays. He argues these are outweighed by wealth management AUM growing 25% last quarter and asset management with alternative solutions growing 87%. At 14 times earnings and down 20% from its high, he sees a great entry point.

  “There's some headwinds to investment banking and IPO delays for sure, but the wealth management division is growing 25% on AUM last quarter.”at 43:44

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 8 speakers in other episodes, 12 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Meta's Muse AI app is a game changer that will leverage 4 billion users and has strong early adoption.

  Link recently rebought Meta after earlier seeing it as a one-dimensional advertising company. She now thinks Muse is a game changer because Meta can leverage its roughly 4 billion users, with total addressable markets in the trillions in her view. She points to existing vendor relationships and Muse being the number one app on Apple's app store. She cites fast early adoption: 5 million downloads in the first 22 days, versus 56 days for ChatGPT, 103 for Grok and 492 for Claude. She argues the stock has flattened over the past year, leaving room to catch up, even after Scott Wapner pushed back on competition from OpenAI and Anthropic.

  “I think that Muse is a game changer, and they're going to leverage their 4,000,000,000 users.”at 51:15

SK Hynix

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital PartnersBullish

  SK Hynix looks displaced versus Micron and has more upside left; he is watching it but does not own it.

  Weiss says he doesn't own SK Hynix but has been looking at it. He sees it as displaced relative to what has happened with Micron, implying a valuation or performance gap that could close. He thinks it has more legs. The case is brief and rests mainly on the comparison with Micron.

  “I don't own it. I've been looking at it. It's a little, you know, displaced relative to what we've seen in Micron. And I think it's got some more legs.”at 52:24

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  Market has no fear despite war and a 15 VIX; investors doubt the rally but are not selling, so fear could return.

  Josh says the market carries no fear: the VIX sits near 15 even with wars on multiple continents, which he finds unbelievable. He frames the mood as skepticism versus greed, with heavy doubt ('is it too good to be true?') but no selling. He warns that the absence of fear could show up at any time, and he does not describe the market as complacent.

  “I think this market has no fear in it whatsoever. You're sitting with a 15 VIX. We're at war on multiple continents.”at 2:53

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital Partners

  Passive, index-heavy investors rarely sell in downdrafts, so market drawdowns don't last as long anymore.

  Steve says the investing cohort has shifted since 2008 toward indices, and these investors keep compounding tax-free and are used to V-shaped recoveries. Nobody gets shaken out during downdrafts anymore. He does concede that the 2002 downturn lasted a decade, so the claim that drawdowns don't last is not uniform.

  “they're not gonna sell it because it's compounding form now tax free, and they're used to these v shaped recoveries. So nobody gets shaken up anymore if you have a downdraft in the market. They just don't last that long.”at 10:40

US stock market outlook

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  Market setup looks good because 40% of stocks sit below their 200-day average, offering buyable names away from highs.

  Josh argues that with earnings strong but 40% of the stock market below its 200-day moving average, there are attractive buying opportunities not at all-time highs, which he calls a good setup. He says he would change his view if the tape turned, such as three disappointing jobs reports in a row, the Fed tightening because of oil prices, and downward earnings revisions, but none of that is occurring now.

  “40% of the stock market is below the two hundred day. ... There are things I can buy that aren't at all time highs. I like that setup.”at 21:58

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment Partners

  Market resilience is attributable to technology, which now drives an economy shifted from tangible to intangible assets.

  Joe argues the last 15 years have seen the American economy shift from a tangible asset economy to a technology-oriented intangible asset economy. Technology is now the heartbeat of the economy, and that is why the market has been resilient. He also says mega-cap names like Microsoft, Nvidia and Apple act as defensive exposure in the current environment, which is why the quality factor is underperforming.

  “The American economy ... has moved from a tangible asset economy to a technology oriented intangible asset economy. ... The resiliency that you have in the market is attributable to technology.”at 25:38

US growth & recession risk

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  US growth is running 4-5% versus the roughly 3% she expected, so earnings should beat and keep rising.

  Stephanie says growth this year has been much stronger than expected. She had expected about 3% but sees roughly 4-5%. She argues that this translates into much better-than-expected earnings, and since stocks follow profits, she expects profits to keep rising.

  “This year, what has been so surprising has been the growth. It's much stronger than expected. I was thinking we were going to grow something like 3% this year. We're growing somewhere like four or 5%.”at 5:18

US Treasuries & yields

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  Rising yields reflect real rates, not inflation fears, and aren't hurting the economy until the 10-year nears 6%.

  Stephanie says the yield curve is steepening because financial conditions are less tight than people think. At a 5.3% ten-year, the move is not yet hurting the economy. She says the move is in real yields rather than inflation concerns, since five- and ten-year breakevens sit at a tight 2.4%. She would start to worry if the ten-year reached around 6%.

  “the move in yields is real yields, not inflation concerns. ... if we got to something like 6%, we'd have to talk about it.”at 6:01

Cybersecurity

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  Cybersecurity will be bigger than AI, and it is a multi-decade theme.

  Stephanie lists long-term themes she invests around, including AI and data center power. She says cybersecurity is going to be bigger than AI and is also decades long. She frames these as multi-year structural themes that she pursues by identifying the best company specifics within them.

  “Cybersecurity is gonna be bigger than AI. That too is going to be decades long.”at 23:33