Speaker · Updated
Andreas Steno: latest market views
Steno Research
Summary
Danish macro strategist, founder and CEO of Steno Research and CIO of the Asgard-Steno Global Macro fund, formerly Global Chief Strategist at Nordea and now a Real Vision senior editor and host.
Chorus has 30 views from Andreas Steno across 2 episodes on Real Vision since October 19, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Anthropic, Bitcoin, Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company; bearish on Meta Platforms.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- AnthropicBullish ·
- Meta PlatformsBearish ·
- BitcoinBullish ·
- Dell TechnologiesBullish ·
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise CompanyBullish ·
- ServiceNowBullish ·
- WaymoBullish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
AnthropicBearish
Anthropic is openly short of compute and has lost enterprise momentum since June, mostly a capacity issue.
Steno says Anthropic is very explicit that it needs more compute and knows it does not have enough. He has argued for a quarter that Anthropic lost momentum after June, which he attributes mostly to capacity rather than demand. Anthropic has forward compute deals with Alphabet and Amazon, so those hyperscalers must deliver the capacity. He doubts the market will finance that build-out without convincing returns, which makes the constraint the central question for the coming earnings calls.
“Anthropic is very explicit when it comes to its compute capacity going forward. They need more and they are very well aware that they don't have enough.”at 0:46
Real Vision: Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays ·
AnthropicBullish
Anthropic's margin improved from -255% to about -5%, so it is near cash-flow breakeven and may turn positive this year.
From the filing, Steno sees Anthropic's margin move from about minus 255% a year earlier to about minus 5% at the end of the first half. Extrapolating that into the third quarter puts the company very close to cash-flow neutral or a cash-flow-positive reading. He says he would not be overly surprised if it turned cash-flow positive this year.
“They've basically gone from a margin of minus 255% a year ago to a margin of minus five, something like that. So if you extrapolate that into the third quarter, we're very, very close to cash flow neutral... I wouldn't be overly surprised if they turned cash flow positive this year.”at 2:09
Real Vision: Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays ·
The AI build-out is a very weak dot-com analogy: capacity is full, prices rising, and builders earn revenue.
Steno compares the AI build-out with the dot-com era on utilization, price of capacity and revenue of those building it. Today there is effectively full capacity or a shortage relative to demand, and capacity prices are rising, the opposite of the bandwidth price collapse in the dot-com era. Anthropic and OpenAI generate substantial revenue, which he says is unlike pets.com-style businesses. He calls the analogy very weak, while adding that the credit market is stuck in a dot-com-like mood.
“The comparison between the AI build out and the .com is very, very weak on a range of parameters... on all three parameters... The price of that capacity is going up, which is in sharp contrast to what happened with the price of bandwidth back in .com.”at 2:50
Real Vision: Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays ·
Bond market distrust of AI build-out financing is a serious risk until hyperscalers prove returns on capex.
Steno argues that the bond market's view is decisive: if it sees AI as a credit risk, AI is a credit risk until the market is convinced otherwise. The build-out needs capital, and hyperscalers such as Amazon and Alphabet can no longer fund it from free cash flow, so they have issued bonds and tapped markets. He expects them to deliver strong returns on already-invested capex. Credit stress is not a major issue while earnings deliver, but if earnings disappoint the skeptics in the bond market will grow more concerned.
“If the bond market finds AI to be a credit risk, then AI is a credit risk until you convince the bond market that it isn't.”at 6:21
Real Vision: Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays ·
Meta PlatformsBearish
Meta's new equity category to fund capex is light dilution of existing holders, explaining the stock's fall.
Steno says Meta created a new equity category to fund its capex, which amounts to light dilution of existing shareholders. He says this explains why the stock took a beating. He would be surprised if Alphabet, Amazon or Microsoft made a similar move, and suggests they are more likely to use third-party neocloud providers.
“Meta basically decided to come up with a new equity category to fund the CapEx. So it was some sort of light dilution of existing equity holders.”at 8:38
Real Vision: Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays ·
GPU rental prices are rising and beating depreciation schedules, so the AI build-out returns look fine.
Steno shows that the rental price of H100 GPUs, mostly installed in 2022 and 2023, is up about 30% this year, and that the first Blackwell series, the B200, has more than doubled. Consensus spreadsheets assume falling GPU prices, so he calls this bizarre. He says capex is depreciated over about five years, and rising rental prices mean every GPU installed since 2020 has beaten its depreciation profile by miles. He takes this as a sign the market is short of compute, which makes the return on investment fine if the trend continues.
“They're up 30% in rental prices this year. Look at the [B200], the first Blackwell series. It's more than doubled this year.”at 10:36
Real Vision: Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays ·
AnthropicBullish
Anthropic's revenue growth outpaces compute costs, showing it can pass costs on to customers.
In the filing, Steno sees Anthropic's revenue up about 15x in a year while compute costs rose about 4x. He reads this as proof that the company passes its costs on, and more, to the average client. He notes it has struggled to pass costs to all API clients, but overall it manages to pass them on sufficiently. Its enterprise momentum was instead hurt by running out of compute.
“I think revenue has 15x in a year, while compute costs have 4x. It actually tells you that they're able to pass on the costs and more to the average client.”at 12:57
Real Vision: Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays ·
Quality-adjusted token prices have fallen about 95% over two years, so AI deflation is real.
Steno argues that official inflation measures adjust prices for quality. A token is far more valuable now than a year ago because models are much better, so people pay roughly the same nominal price for much more output. On that basis he estimates the price of a token is down about 95% over the past two years.
“One thing is the nominal price you pay for an iPhone or pay for a token, but it will always be adjusted by the power of that iPhone and the power of that token... I'd argue that the price of a token is down 95% or so over the past two years.”at 14:46
Real Vision: Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays ·
The Fed is blinded by the AI build-out while the rest of the economy struggles with restrictive rates.
Steno says the Fed will not admit rates are restrictive because the AI build-out masks weakness. Outside AI, construction activity is down, and construction is typically a gauge of how interest rates affect the economy. Outside AI, data centres and power are the only areas getting capital, while the rest suffers from scarce capital and high bond yields.
“When the Federal Reserve is not willing to say that interest rates are restrictive, I think they're kind of blindfolded by the whole AI build out because everything else than AI is down in terms of construction activity.”at 17:31
Real Vision: Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays ·
Broad equities could rebound sharply if the Fed acknowledges tight financial conditions, a short squeeze.
Steno argues that beneath the surface many equities are suffering, not only AI, because the economy cannot cope with current interest rate levels. Rotation has occurred, but broad equities have been hit. If the Fed acknowledges tighter financial conditions, or even hints the hiking cycle will not last long, the broad market could rebound sharply. He describes the market as one message away from a short squeeze.
“If the Fed starts to acknowledge these tighter financial conditions... I actually think that the broad equity market will rebound like crazy because, you know, beneath the hood... a lot of equity suffer. It's not only AI because the economy cannot cope with interest rates at these levels.”at 17:57
Real Vision: Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays ·
Market prices the AI build-out as over; forecasts of chip growth falling to zero next year are debatable.
Steno argues the market has priced in the end of the AI build-out. Either the build-out ends, in which case AI-related stocks should not rally, or it does not end, in which case AI-related stocks should rally hard. The assumption now is that chip growth will slow to zero next year and turn negative into Q2, which he finds highly debatable.
“I'd argue that the market has basically priced now that the AI build out is over... the assumption now is that chips growth will basically slow to zero next year... which I find highly, highly debatable.”at 18:55
Real Vision: Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays ·
Brazil's selloff is not over: Bolsonaro may refuse the result and Trump could impose tariffs.
After Lula's win, the real fell about 10% and Brazilian equities dropped sharply. Steno does not think this is over, because Bolsonaro is not willing to accept the result. He also notes the right-wing shift in South America has been cheered by the White House, so Trump could get involved with extra tariffs on Brazil. He says he would not rule that out.
“I don't think this is over. No. Especially since, you know, Bolsonaro is not willing to accept the result, first of all.”at 21:14
Real Vision: Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays ·
The EU's new import curbs on Chinese goods are long overdue after years of refereeing without enforcement.
Steno says the EU let Chinese EVs flood its market, and then gave them tax-free treatment in many countries, which gave China an unfair advantage over locally produced EVs. Chinese goods also benefit from subsidised air freight in Denmark, since China is treated as an emerging market under Danish law. Everyone else is already in the arena, and the EU has spent three or four years acting as a referee that nobody listens to. He thinks the move signals a wave of change within the union.
“I personally impatiently waited for a message like this from the European Commission... the EU... has basically spent the last three or four years trying to act as a referee telling everyone else, oh, you cannot do that.”at 24:30
Real Vision: Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays ·
US inflation momentum has flatlined since early May, a surprise given Hormuz remains unresolved.
Inflation momentum has been flat since the first week of May. That is surprising, because the Strait of Hormuz is still not resolved and the situation has looked worse recently. Steno says this is one of the surprises in the macro landscape, and his own nowcasts had called for a positive economy despite the war.
“It's early days, but it seems like we have more or less flatlining inflation momentum in The US, especially since the first week of May, which is a big surprise in many ways given that we don't have a resolution to the Strait Of Hormuz.”at 2:35
Real Vision: Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026 ·
US economy is accelerating in manufacturing, driven by the AI buildout, and should keep doing so for a few quarters.
ISM strength rhymes with Steno's nowcasts. The US economy is accelerating in manufacturing more than services, which he expects to continue for the coming couple of quarters. The AI buildout is very manufacturing-heavy, from the hardware trade to on-the-ground capex for data centres. Manufacturing is growing faster than before the war, and new orders are rising, so the data should hold for the next couple of months.
“We're talking about a US economy that is mostly accelerating in manufacturing terms, not as much in services terms. And I actually think this is what you should expect for the upcoming couple of quarters as well since the whole AI build out is very manufacturing heavy.”at 4:34
Real Vision: Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026 ·
Global oil and jet fuel stocks cover only about six to seven more weeks before the squeeze becomes a problem.
Global storage of oil and jet fuel cannot carry the rest of the year without a resolution. Steno's best guess is that reserves comfortably last six or seven more weeks. Close to that deadline, US leverage in negotiations weakens substantially, so the pain threshold is near.
“my best guess right now is that we have, comfortably still have six, seven weeks left of reserves. But, of course, if you get very close to that deadline, the leverage from The US side weakens quite a lot.”at 10:47
Real Vision: Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026 ·
Base case is a ceasefire deal with at least partial Strait of Hormuz reopening during June.
Steno's working assumption is a ceasefire or prolonged deal that includes at least a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz during June, which he says is needed for the economy to keep accelerating. The war has been much less relevant to the global economy than feared outside its first weeks, and markets are calm: oil is up only a few percent and US equities were almost flat. A resolution is needed within this quarter or early next quarter. The main risk is a Houthi closure of the Red Sea, which would bring a few nasty days in markets, but the Houthis have had many chances and seem unwilling to act.
“My base case and my working assumption has been that we need to strike some sort of ceasefire deal or prolonged deal, including at least a partial reopening of the Strait Of Hormuz sometime during June for the economy to keep accelerating.”at 11:07
Real Vision: Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026 ·
WaymoBullish
Waymo's autonomous miles doubled in six months; he calls it a true exponential case.
Robotaxi operators already have millions of hours of real-world driving data, and Waymo has been on the road for a long time. Its driven autonomous miles have doubled over the past six months, which Steno calls a true exponential case. That data is the reason autonomous vehicles are progressing faster than humanoid robots.
“We've had Waymo's on the road for a long while, and they've just doubled their ... driven autonomous miles over the past six months or something like that. It's a true exponential case by now.”at 15:51
Real Vision: Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026 ·
Robotics & autonomous vehicles
Humanoid robots are years away because they need far more real-world training data; he doubts progress this cycle.
For AI to work in real-life tasks such as cleaning, it needs huge numbers of recordings. Autonomous vehicles are the one large real-world dataset, and humanoid robots lack that data, so capability is probably years away. Steno fully believes the trend about seven years ahead, but doubts enough progress will come this cycle. For that reason he has tilted his robotics portfolio towards autonomous miles, where recordings already exist.
“I fully believe in this trend, say, seven years ahead. But the question is whether we we will get enough progress in some of these cases related to humanoid robots already this cycle. I doubt it because we need all of these recordings first.”at 16:31
Real Vision: Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026 ·
Court rulings against tariffs leave collected revenue short, opening a budget hole for the next month or two.
Two rulings have struck down the administration's tariffs: the reciprocal tariffs, and the 10% global tariff that replaced them. The remaining tariff structure is at most about 40% of what was hoped for. Tariff revenue had been a nice source for the deficit, and it is now weak. Since the last budget update on May 3, only negative surprises have followed, leaving a nasty hole in the budget for the coming month or two.
“for now, it's crystal clear that they have to pay back more than they take in, which leaves a nasty hole in the budget for the coming month or two.”at 18:59
Real Vision: Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026 ·
Tariff refunds will draw down the Treasury's cash account, pushing liquidity into private banks over 4-6 weeks.
The Treasury is underestimating its issuance needs, which is a liquidity tailwind for this month. Tariff revenue has fallen after two court rulings, so the government must pay back more than it takes in. The TGA at the Fed is running below projections, and Steno expects a large drawdown over the next four to six weeks. That liquidity will flow to private banks, which are the receiving end.
“They have this TGA at the Federal Reserve currently running below projections as a consequence of this, and I think we'll see a large drawdown in this... On this account over the next four to six weeks as a consequence of these tariffs paybacks.”at 19:23
Real Vision: Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026 ·
Market sentiment, positioning & volatility
Cheap leverage from abundant dollars, shown by SOFR below fed funds, will keep fuelling the leverage spike.
The spread between SOFR and effective fed funds is priced very negative, which typically means abundant dollars and readily available balance-sheet capacity for levering up trades in Treasuries and mortgages. Leverage has spiked through this rally, and given the pricing Steno expects the spike to continue. Leverage can also be used to short, which is part of why software is squeezing higher.
“And we're pricing very negative now, meaning that the [SOFR] rate is well below the effective fed funds rate. And that typically happens when there's an abundance of dollars.”at 20:00
Real Vision: Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026 ·
BitcoinBullish
Bitcoin is the only lagging risk asset and could move violently once momentum returns.
Bitcoin is the only risk asset not participating in the rally, which is odd, and he expects it to enjoy its moment eventually. Flows and anecdotes show some crypto investors have shifted focus to AI. Steno is under-allocated to crypto and patiently waiting for a trigger to restore price momentum, so the move could be very violent once it returns. He sold some ETH last week to pay taxes.
“It would be odd if Bitcoin was the only risk asset that wouldn't enjoy its moment in the sun during this cycle. So I guess it could be very violent once the momentum returns.”at 22:09
Real Vision: Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026 ·
Software's rally is a violent short squeeze, with the market caught very short in the trade.
Leverage used to short software has been squeezed, which is probably one reason software is now flying higher. The market is caught very, very short in the trade, and the squeeze is getting violent. This is the basis for his June view that software squeezes further.
“This software squeeze is getting pretty violent now, and the market is caught very, very short in this trade.”at 23:20
Real Vision: Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026 ·
Heavily allocated to security software after the SaaS selloff; a very good June case.
Steno's fund doubled down on security names during the SaaS sell-off and has made tremendous returns there. He remains heavily allocated to security software and considers it a very good case for June, alongside the software squeeze.
“We've doubled down on those during that SaaS apocalypse. We've made tremendous returns there and stay, heavily allocated to security software.”at 23:35
Real Vision: Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026 ·
Dell TechnologiesBullish
Dell's AI-driven numbers are strong and spilling into consumer products; the trade has barely started.
Dell's numbers last week were striking, mostly from AI services, with spillovers starting to show in end-consumer products. His fund entered the server-maker trade three or four weeks ago and he does not think it has started yet. He says Dell is trading like a meme coin, but the fundamentals support the trade.
“Look at Dell's numbers last week. Wow. Mostly in AI service, but we're also starting to see the spillovers to some of the end consumer products.”at 23:55
Real Vision: Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026 ·
Hewlett Packard Enterprise CompanyBullish
HP Enterprise's Nvidia production-line partnership makes it another compelling AI server name.
HP Enterprise is making a partnership with Nvidia on a new production line, which he finds very interesting. He sees it as another name in the computer-server space that looks compelling, alongside Dell.
“We also saw HP Enterprise making a partnership with Nvidia now on a new production line, which is very interesting. So another name in that space that looks compelling.”at 24:07
Real Vision: Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026 ·
Drone stocks have seen momentum reverse, so adding to them makes sense; a funding confirmation could spark June.
A Wall Street Journal report says some drone companies may receive funding in return for equity stakes, but the deal is not yet confirmed. Momentum, the most important factor in equity markets now, has reversed in several high-beta drone names. That makes adding to them sensible. If the packages are confirmed, as quantum packages were weeks ago, that could spark a spike in June.
“So I'm actually tempted to say that it makes sense to add to some of these drone names.”at 25:34
Real Vision: Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026 ·
ServiceNowBullish
ServiceNow faces an obvious AI cannibalization threat, yet its short squeeze could make a fun June play.
Steno sees an obvious cannibalization case in ServiceNow from the launch of [Claude], which he finds ironic since the model now recommends buying it. Many people have asked Claude for running portfolio tips, and it has been recommending ServiceNow, which has since rallied hard. There is a huge short squeeze ongoing, so ServiceNow could be a fun play for June. The bullish case is trading-driven rather than fundamental.
“I don't think there's a more obvious cannibalization case than exactly ServiceNow from the launch of [Claude]... there's a huge short squeeze ongoing in ServiceNow, so that could also be another fun play for June.”at 27:52
Real Vision: Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026 ·
Market sentiment, positioning & volatility
AI chatbots pushing everyone into the same trades amplifies the momentum factor and creates fade opportunities.
Many investors are being told by Claude, Gemini and similar tools to pile into the same stocks, which adds to the momentum factor. That creates moves three or four standard deviations off the chart. Those moves offer tremendous opportunities to fade, if the timing is right, but there is also plenty of money in the momentum trade meanwhile, so an investor must manage both the value and momentum factors.
“it adds to the momentum factor. Exactly. That every... everybody is just piling on the same trades because they're told so by Claude and Gemini and whatever.”at 28:47
Real Vision: Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026 ·
Shows
- Real Vision · 2 episodes
Ask your AI what Andreas Steno thinks
Chorus gives Claude, ChatGPT and other assistants every view Andreas Steno has shared on the shows it covers, next to everyone else's. Ask where they stand, what changed, and who disagrees.
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