Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026

Waymo

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Andreas Steno · Steno ResearchBullish

  Waymo's autonomous miles doubled in six months; he calls it a true exponential case.

  Robotaxi operators already have millions of hours of real-world driving data, and Waymo has been on the road for a long time. Its driven autonomous miles have doubled over the past six months, which Steno calls a true exponential case. That data is the reason autonomous vehicles are progressing faster than humanoid robots.

  “We've had Waymo's on the road for a long while, and they've just doubled their ... driven autonomous miles over the past six months or something like that. It's a true exponential case by now.”at 15:51

Bitcoin

Across the shows: 7 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Andreas Steno · Steno ResearchBullish

  Bitcoin is the only lagging risk asset and could move violently once momentum returns.

  Bitcoin is the only risk asset not participating in the rally, which is odd, and he expects it to enjoy its moment eventually. Flows and anecdotes show some crypto investors have shifted focus to AI. Steno is under-allocated to crypto and patiently waiting for a trigger to restore price momentum, so the move could be very violent once it returns. He sold some ETH last week to pay taxes.

  “It would be odd if Bitcoin was the only risk asset that wouldn't enjoy its moment in the sun during this cycle. So I guess it could be very violent once the momentum returns.”at 22:09

Dell Technologies

• Andreas Steno · Steno ResearchBullish

  Dell's AI-driven numbers are strong and spilling into consumer products; the trade has barely started.

  Dell's numbers last week were striking, mostly from AI services, with spillovers starting to show in end-consumer products. His fund entered the server-maker trade three or four weeks ago and he does not think it has started yet. He says Dell is trading like a meme coin, but the fundamentals support the trade.

  “Look at Dell's numbers last week. Wow. Mostly in AI service, but we're also starting to see the spillovers to some of the end consumer products.”at 23:55

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company

• Andreas Steno · Steno ResearchBullish

  HP Enterprise's Nvidia production-line partnership makes it another compelling AI server name.

  HP Enterprise is making a partnership with Nvidia on a new production line, which he finds very interesting. He sees it as another name in the computer-server space that looks compelling, alongside Dell.

  “We also saw HP Enterprise making a partnership with Nvidia now on a new production line, which is very interesting. So another name in that space that looks compelling.”at 24:07

ServiceNow

• Andreas Steno · Steno ResearchBullish

  ServiceNow faces an obvious AI cannibalization threat, yet its short squeeze could make a fun June play.

  Steno sees an obvious cannibalization case in ServiceNow from the launch of [Claude], which he finds ironic since the model now recommends buying it. Many people have asked Claude for running portfolio tips, and it has been recommending ServiceNow, which has since rallied hard. There is a huge short squeeze ongoing, so ServiceNow could be a fun play for June. The bullish case is trading-driven rather than fundamental.

  “I don't think there's a more obvious cannibalization case than exactly ServiceNow from the launch of [Claude]... there's a huge short squeeze ongoing in ServiceNow, so that could also be another fun play for June.”at 27:52

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Andreas Steno · Steno Research

  Cheap leverage from abundant dollars, shown by SOFR below fed funds, will keep fuelling the leverage spike.

  The spread between SOFR and effective fed funds is priced very negative, which typically means abundant dollars and readily available balance-sheet capacity for levering up trades in Treasuries and mortgages. Leverage has spiked through this rally, and given the pricing Steno expects the spike to continue. Leverage can also be used to short, which is part of why software is squeezing higher.

  “And we're pricing very negative now, meaning that the [SOFR] rate is well below the effective fed funds rate. And that typically happens when there's an abundance of dollars.”at 20:00

• Andreas Steno · Steno Research

  AI chatbots pushing everyone into the same trades amplifies the momentum factor and creates fade opportunities.

  Many investors are being told by Claude, Gemini and similar tools to pile into the same stocks, which adds to the momentum factor. That creates moves three or four standard deviations off the chart. Those moves offer tremendous opportunities to fade, if the timing is right, but there is also plenty of money in the momentum trade meanwhile, so an investor must manage both the value and momentum factors.

  “it adds to the momentum factor. Exactly. That every... everybody is just piling on the same trades because they're told so by Claude and Gemini and whatever.”at 28:47

Defense

• Andreas Steno · Steno Research

  Drone stocks have seen momentum reverse, so adding to them makes sense; a funding confirmation could spark June.

  A Wall Street Journal report says some drone companies may receive funding in return for equity stakes, but the deal is not yet confirmed. Momentum, the most important factor in equity markets now, has reversed in several high-beta drone names. That makes adding to them sensible. If the packages are confirmed, as quantum packages were weeks ago, that could spark a spike in June.

  “So I'm actually tempted to say that it makes sense to add to some of these drone names.”at 25:34

• Mikkel Rosenvold · Steno Research (Real Vision)

  Military drones are a multi-year winner; a war-ending deal would hurt them but not break the case.

  Military drones are still tied to the war, so if one or two wars end it should be negative for them. That is not enough to make it a bad case, in Rosenvold's view. He is very long, and believes it will be an incredible case for the coming years. His portfolio is skewed towards robotics and military drones.

  “Not enough to make it a bad case in my opinion. I'm very, very long. I believe this is going be an incredible case for the coming years.”at 26:41

US inflation

• Andreas Steno · Steno Research

  US inflation momentum has flatlined since early May, a surprise given Hormuz remains unresolved.

  Inflation momentum has been flat since the first week of May. That is surprising, because the Strait of Hormuz is still not resolved and the situation has looked worse recently. Steno says this is one of the surprises in the macro landscape, and his own nowcasts had called for a positive economy despite the war.

  “It's early days, but it seems like we have more or less flatlining inflation momentum in The US, especially since the first week of May, which is a big surprise in many ways given that we don't have a resolution to the Strait Of Hormuz.”at 2:35

US growth & recession risk

• Andreas Steno · Steno Research

  US economy is accelerating in manufacturing, driven by the AI buildout, and should keep doing so for a few quarters.

  ISM strength rhymes with Steno's nowcasts. The US economy is accelerating in manufacturing more than services, which he expects to continue for the coming couple of quarters. The AI buildout is very manufacturing-heavy, from the hardware trade to on-the-ground capex for data centres. Manufacturing is growing faster than before the war, and new orders are rising, so the data should hold for the next couple of months.

  “We're talking about a US economy that is mostly accelerating in manufacturing terms, not as much in services terms. And I actually think this is what you should expect for the upcoming couple of quarters as well since the whole AI build out is very manufacturing heavy.”at 4:34

Oil & fuels

• Andreas Steno · Steno Research

  Global oil and jet fuel stocks cover only about six to seven more weeks before the squeeze becomes a problem.

  Global storage of oil and jet fuel cannot carry the rest of the year without a resolution. Steno's best guess is that reserves comfortably last six or seven more weeks. Close to that deadline, US leverage in negotiations weakens substantially, so the pain threshold is near.

  “my best guess right now is that we have, comfortably still have six, seven weeks left of reserves. But, of course, if you get very close to that deadline, the leverage from The US side weakens quite a lot.”at 10:47

Middle East & Iran

• Andreas Steno · Steno Research

  Base case is a ceasefire deal with at least partial Strait of Hormuz reopening during June.

  Steno's working assumption is a ceasefire or prolonged deal that includes at least a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz during June, which he says is needed for the economy to keep accelerating. The war has been much less relevant to the global economy than feared outside its first weeks, and markets are calm: oil is up only a few percent and US equities were almost flat. A resolution is needed within this quarter or early next quarter. The main risk is a Houthi closure of the Red Sea, which would bring a few nasty days in markets, but the Houthis have had many chances and seem unwilling to act.

  “My base case and my working assumption has been that we need to strike some sort of ceasefire deal or prolonged deal, including at least a partial reopening of the Strait Of Hormuz sometime during June for the economy to keep accelerating.”at 11:07

Robotics & autonomous vehicles

• Andreas Steno · Steno Research

  Humanoid robots are years away because they need far more real-world training data; he doubts progress this cycle.

  For AI to work in real-life tasks such as cleaning, it needs huge numbers of recordings. Autonomous vehicles are the one large real-world dataset, and humanoid robots lack that data, so capability is probably years away. Steno fully believes the trend about seven years ahead, but doubts enough progress will come this cycle. For that reason he has tilted his robotics portfolio towards autonomous miles, where recordings already exist.

  “I fully believe in this trend, say, seven years ahead. But the question is whether we we will get enough progress in some of these cases related to humanoid robots already this cycle. I doubt it because we need all of these recordings first.”at 16:31

Tariffs & trade policy

• Andreas Steno · Steno Research

  Court rulings against tariffs leave collected revenue short, opening a budget hole for the next month or two.

  Two rulings have struck down the administration's tariffs: the reciprocal tariffs, and the 10% global tariff that replaced them. The remaining tariff structure is at most about 40% of what was hoped for. Tariff revenue had been a nice source for the deficit, and it is now weak. Since the last budget update on May 3, only negative surprises have followed, leaving a nasty hole in the budget for the coming month or two.

  “for now, it's crystal clear that they have to pay back more than they take in, which leaves a nasty hole in the budget for the coming month or two.”at 18:59

US Treasuries & yields

• Andreas Steno · Steno Research

  Tariff refunds will draw down the Treasury's cash account, pushing liquidity into private banks over 4-6 weeks.

  The Treasury is underestimating its issuance needs, which is a liquidity tailwind for this month. Tariff revenue has fallen after two court rulings, so the government must pay back more than it takes in. The TGA at the Fed is running below projections, and Steno expects a large drawdown over the next four to six weeks. That liquidity will flow to private banks, which are the receiving end.

  “They have this TGA at the Federal Reserve currently running below projections as a consequence of this, and I think we'll see a large drawdown in this... On this account over the next four to six weeks as a consequence of these tariffs paybacks.”at 19:23

Software & SaaS

• Andreas Steno · Steno Research

  Software's rally is a violent short squeeze, with the market caught very short in the trade.

  Leverage used to short software has been squeezed, which is probably one reason software is now flying higher. The market is caught very, very short in the trade, and the squeeze is getting violent. This is the basis for his June view that software squeezes further.

  “This software squeeze is getting pretty violent now, and the market is caught very, very short in this trade.”at 23:20

Cybersecurity

• Andreas Steno · Steno Research

  Heavily allocated to security software after the SaaS selloff; a very good June case.

  Steno's fund doubled down on security names during the SaaS sell-off and has made tremendous returns there. He remains heavily allocated to security software and considers it a very good case for June, alongside the software squeeze.

  “We've doubled down on those during that SaaS apocalypse. We've made tremendous returns there and stay, heavily allocated to security software.”at 23:35