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What podcasters are saying about Tariffs & trade policy
Summary
In the past 30 days, 29 speakers on 19 finance podcasts discussed Tariffs & trade policy in 31 views. Chorus has followed Tariffs & trade policy since October 2, 2026.
Who talks about it most
- Andreas Steno · 2
- Ken Griffin · 2
- Eric Basmajian · 1
- Christine Lagarde · 1
- Kai Wu · 1
- Axel Merk · 1
- Scott Bessent · 1
- Craig Fuller · 1
- David Busch · 1
- Heidi Crebo-Rediker · 1
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Eric Basmajian · EPB Research
Tariff policy has been erratic: floated at 20-50%, the effective rate hit about 11% and then eased to about 8%.
Tariffs were floated at 20%, 30% and even 50%, but the effective US tariff rate rose only from about 2.5% to about 11%, and has since come back to about 8%. Policies were floated and then withdrawn, for example tariffs removed after coffee bean prices rose. Basmajian says this erratic policy path, and the government's growing role in economics, creates uncertainty that hits small businesses harder than large firms. Large firms can anticipate policy, get access and manage integrated supply chains.
“Tariffs were floated at 20%, 30%, even as high as 50%... the effective tariff rate moved from about two and a half percent to about 11%, and it's already come back to about 8%.”at 32:04
The David Lin Report: Microsoft AI Jobs Shock: 60,000 Buyouts, Who's Next? | Eric Basmajian ·
Christine Lagarde · European Central Bank
Renewed trade tensions would fragment supply chains, curb critical raw materials and strain capacity.
Renewed trade tensions between major economies are a risk on both sides of the ECB's outlook. They could make global supply chains more fragmented and curtail the supply of critical raw materials. They could also worsen capacity constraints in the euro area economy, which would push up inflation. On the growth side, the same tensions could reduce exports and weaken consumption and investment.
“Renewed trade tensions could give rise to more fragmented global supply chains, curtail the supply of critical raw materials, and worsen capacity constraints in the euro area economy.”at 9:44
ECB press conferences and Euro Matters (ECB podcast): President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 29 October 2026 ·
Kai Wu · Sparkline Capital
Multinationals earned excess returns over domestic firms during the trade war; investors should stay global.
During the trade war, the popular move was to hide in domestic firms. Kai wrote a paper comparing multinationals with domestic firms and found that the excess returns went to multinationals. He attributes this to gains from trade, since big multinationals can choose their supply chains and office locations. He also cites selection bias, since multinationals are the best-positioned firms competing on a global stage. Third, multinationals are more intangible-intensive, and intangible assets scale over a larger market. He says investors shouldn't retreat into the less dynamic domestic sectors. He says investors shouldn't kill the golden goose of global multinational investing, whether the firms are US-based or international.
“Excess returns have been accrued to the multinationals. They're, like, the the world's best firms.”at 12:21
Excess Returns: The S&P 500 Is Just 50 Stocks. The Nasdaq Is a 67% AI Bet. Kai Wu on What Else Is Hiding in Your Funds ·
Axel Merk · Merk Investments
Tariffs reduce foreign financing of US debt, raising US borrowing costs and long-term yields.
Merk argues tariffs don't just impede the flow of goods but also the flow of currency. All else equal, tariffs mean less financing of US debt by foreigners, so borrowing costs are higher than they would otherwise be, and he notes that long-term yields on US debt have been going up. He stresses that foreigners won't dump their debt tomorrow, but the cost of borrowing rises at the margin.
“Tariffs don't just impede the flow of goods, tariffs also impede the flow of currency... when you have tariffs you have less financing of US debt by foreigners.”at 1:04:10
Thoughtful Money: FOMC Live Reaction: Is The Fed Making A Policy Error? | Axel Merk ·
Scott Bessent · U.S. Department of the Treasury
Trade deals are largely locked in, except Mexico and Canada, which are being renegotiated.
He says the USTR under Jamieson Greer is doing a good job and a Section 301 study is still outstanding. Aside from Mexico and Canada, which is a USTR renegotiation, he says the trade deals are pretty locked in. That means no broad change to the tariff structure is planned.
“aside from Mexico and Canada, which is a USTR renegotiation, the trade deals are pretty locked in.”at 21:38
CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test; Warsh’s Latest Fed Decision 10/28/26 ·
Craig Fuller · FreightWaves
Tariffs aren't moving food prices, since most calories consumed are produced domestically.
Craig says about 95% of the calories Americans consume are produced in the US, so tariffs are not actually affecting food prices. He contrasts this with apparel, which is mostly imported, so tariffs hit freight volumes in apparel more than in food.
“Most of our food, by the way, is produced in The United States. Like 95% of the calories we consume... The vast majority of the food we consume is domestic. And so tariffs are not actually impacting food prices.”at 15:00
Thoughtful Money: "No Signs Of The A.I. Party Slowing Down" | Craig Fuller ·
Andreas Steno · Steno Research
The EU's new import curbs on Chinese goods are long overdue after years of refereeing without enforcement.
Steno says the EU let Chinese EVs flood its market, and then gave them tax-free treatment in many countries, which gave China an unfair advantage over locally produced EVs. Chinese goods also benefit from subsidised air freight in Denmark, since China is treated as an emerging market under Danish law. Everyone else is already in the arena, and the EU has spent three or four years acting as a referee that nobody listens to. He thinks the move signals a wave of change within the union.
“I personally impatiently waited for a message like this from the European Commission... the EU... has basically spent the last three or four years trying to act as a referee telling everyone else, oh, you cannot do that.”at 24:30
Real Vision: Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays ·
David Busch · Trajan Wealth
Tariffs are inflationary in the near term and deflationary over the long term as consumers pull back.
Busch says tariffs and trade wars are inflationary in the near term, layered on top of energy-driven inflation. Over the long term, they become deflationary because consumers pull back spending. He frames this as a dynamic that has so far been inflationary.
“And then you layer on top of that tariffs and trade wars, which are in the near term inflationary. Ultimately, over the long term, they're deflationary because consumers pull back.”at 21:20
The David Lin Report: ‘Marching Towards Default’: Market’s Weakest Link Revealed | David Busch ·
Heidi Crebo-Rediker · Council on Foreign Relations
Trade war is drawing backlash from lost exports and angry farmers, and costing friendship with Canada.
Tariffs have raised grocery bills, and the trade war is getting significant backlash from lost exports. Farmers are unhappy, and in the case of Canada the US is losing friends over trade. Crebo-Rediker sees this as a major political problem alongside the Iran war.
“Tariffs have raised grocery bills. And trade war... The trade war is basically, you know, getting a lot of backlash from lost exports. Farmers are unhappy.”at 20:01
Bloomberg Surveillance: Market Uncertainty Ahead of the Midterms ·
Paul Kedrosky · SK Ventures
Strong US GDP under tariffs reflects AI capex, so tariff believers misread the growth data.
Kedrosky says that if you think tariffs work, you look at strong GDP growth and conclude tariffs had no impact. He calls this a misunderstanding of what drove GDP, which was AI capex. He uses it as an example of how a wrong causal model leads to bad decisions about growth.
“If you believe that tariffs work, you look at GDP growth and say, oh, look. It had no impact. As a matter of fact, GDP was growing in a really sprightly way. And that's just a misunderstanding”at 35:01
Hidden Forces: The Most Dangerous Investment Cycle In History | Paul Kedrosky ·
Mark Rzepczynski · AMPHI Research and Trading
Geoeconomic fragmentation from tariffs and sanctions should raise cross-market diversification.
Mark argues that tariff wars, sanctions, capital controls and industrial policy are fragmenting the world economy. Under that fragmentation, markets should decouple, which should raise diversification across markets. He adds that the amount of geoeconomic fragmentation will ebb and flow. When fragmentation falls, markets become more correlated and diversification shrinks. Trend followers therefore need to track geoeconomics because it changes the correlation matrix their models use to diversify.
“if the world becomes more fragmented and dislocated, we should sort of see the diversification increases in markets. Markets are gonna become more decoupled.”at 54:26
Top Traders Unplugged: SI423: Why Trend Following Might Outlast the AI Arms Race ft. Mark Rzepczynski ·
Tani Fukui · MetLife Investment Management
Tariffs are a small share of the economy; uncertainty and modest CPI effects matter more.
From prior federal work analysing tariffs, Fukui says tariffs are always a relatively small share of the total economy, around 2%. They are very big in certain sectors and regions, but overall not as much of a big deal. The uncertainty they create weighs more on businesses, and they show up in CPI only modestly, which is why the effect was not as large as some expected.
“it's always a relatively small share of the total economy... Very big in certain sectors and in certain parts of the country, but overall, not as much of a big deal. The uncertainty is what it was get... Gets a lot of the, businesses.”at 7:18
Randall Atkins · Ramaco Resources
Chinese steel dumping drove steel and met coal prices down; protectionist responses will help but slowly.
Atkins argues that dramatic dumping of cheap steel from China around the world pushed steel prices down. That in turn pushed down prices of steel feedstocks such as metallurgical coal. He points to US protectionist measures on steel and says Europe is moving to adopt a similar regime against China. He calls China 'the bad guy' and expects these steps to have some impact, but says it takes time at a macro level.
“I think certainly there have been protectionist measures taken in The United States around the steel industry, and I think the Europeans are now trying to sort of uniformly adopt a similar regime against the Chinese. ... You had dramatic dumping of steel around the world that has caused steel prices to decline, and indeed, that has then ... caused prices of feedstocks for the steel business such as metallurgical coal to decline.”at 7:15
Bloomberg Talks: Ramaco Resources CEO Talks China, Steel, and Rare Earths ·
Ken Griffin · Citadel
Tariffs on Canada, Europe and allies have been a disaster; they are pro-inflation and severed supply chains.
Griffin says the tariff battles with Canada, Europe and other allies have been a disaster, and he claims he warned about this when the policy began. He argues tariffs have been pro-inflation and have severed supply chains around the world. He also says the US will not re-industrialize efficiently as a result, which undermines the goal of a re-industrialized America.
“To be blunt, like, I hate to say it, but I've been right. It's been pro inflation.”at 28:15
Bloomberg Talks: Citadel CEO Ken Griffin Talks AI Bubble, US Midterm Elections & France Protests ·
Ken Griffin · Citadel
The tariff war with Europe is a fiasco; the US should use its political capital to push European growth.
Griffin argues that the trade fight with Europe is counterproductive. He says the US should use its political capital at this moment to get allies to grow their economies, since growth in Europe matters for the US. He ties this to the view that the Western world is in the same boat and that the goal is to make the pie bigger for everyone rather than fight each other.
“the tariff war with Europe's a fiasco because at this moment, we should use all of our political capital.”at 37:24
Bloomberg Talks: Citadel CEO Ken Griffin Talks AI Bubble, US Midterm Elections & France Protests ·
Ron Butler · Butler Mortgage
The US-Canada trade war is pressuring Canadian jobs and making buyers nervous, weighing on housing.
Ron ties the trade war to Canadian unemployment, pointing to recent job losses. Threats of a trade war add pressure on jobs, and some people who lose work will move back with parents or couch surf. Without work, paying rent or a mortgage is hard. He also says the trade conflict makes homebuyers nervous and holds back prices. He sees the end of the trade war as a prerequisite for a housing turnaround.
“And the threat of the trade war in Canada puts a further pressure on unemployment, those job losses you talked about.”at 20:31
The David Lin Report: Bond Market Crashes; Your Home Is Next | Ron Butler ·
Dave McKay · Royal Bank of Canada
US–Canada trade friction is hurting confidence, home buying and investment; Canada is diversifying exports.
McKay says the US–Canada relationship is in an adjustment period, with trade friction hitting steel, autos and softwood lumber. Canadian consumers are not buying homes because of confidence, not price. Investment is slowing, and foreign investors and manufacturers are waiting to learn the rules of the game. Canada is diversifying with new energy and LNG links to Asia and Europe, and he expects it to find a way to keep trading with the US.
“It certainly affected us in that Canadian consumers aren't buying homes. It's not a price issue anymore, it's really around a confidence issue.”at 20:56
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 20th, 2026 ·
Doug Petno · JPMorganChase
Some trading competitors act like mercantilists, potentially keeping prices low to win market share.
Petno argues that some competitors and trading counterparties are behaving like mercantilist competitors, potentially keeping prices low. He presents this as one of the obstacles that makes government involvement necessary to build resilient supply chains. The claim is stated with a hedge ('potentially') and supported only by the broad pattern he describes, without specific data.
“the fact that some of our competitors, and and trading counterparties are behaving like mercantilist competitors where they're potentially keeping prices low.”at 7:51
J.P. Morgan Making Sense: One Year In: Advancing Economic Security and Resiliency ·
Holly Wade · NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business)
Tariffs hit manufacturers and retailers hardest, with costs rolling through and mostly absorbed by firms.
Holly says small businesses are not finding ways around tariffs and are mostly absorbing the higher costs. Tariff costs did not arrive as a single price increase but in successive waves over last summer, and some firms are still facing higher costs passed down from suppliers. Manufacturers and retailers were hit hardest, and many owners held off on raising prices until they understood the medium-term tariff levels. Many also struggled to find cheaper alternatives because of long-standing vendor relationships, so they absorbed higher input costs and then passed them on.
“I don't know that they're getting around tariffs. Many of them are just having to absorb those higher costs.”at 35:13
The David Lin Report: Your Paycheck In 2027: Will You Get A Raise Or Get Laid Off? | Holly Wade ·
Friedrich Merz · Federal Government of Germany
EU wants no trade war with China; offers tariff-free access if fair trade, citing overcapacity and subsidies.
Merz says the EU does not want a trade war with China. At a closed-door Brussels meeting, all 27 EU leaders agreed that the bloc must respond to global imbalances, including overcapacity, subsidies and undervalued currencies. The EU's offer is tariff-free access to one of the world's biggest markets, but only under the condition of fair trade. He points to China's willingness to accept a limited number of car imports into the EU as a first sign the approach may be working.
“We don't want a trade war with China. ... We are offering something which is the tariff free access to one of the biggest markets in the world, but this is under preconditions and the precondition is fair trade.”at 17:46
Bloomberg Talks: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz Talks Security in Europe ·
Andreas Steno · Steno Research
Court rulings against tariffs leave collected revenue short, opening a budget hole for the next month or two.
Two rulings have struck down the administration's tariffs: the reciprocal tariffs, and the 10% global tariff that replaced them. The remaining tariff structure is at most about 40% of what was hoped for. Tariff revenue had been a nice source for the deficit, and it is now weak. Since the last budget update on May 3, only negative surprises have followed, leaving a nasty hole in the budget for the coming month or two.
“for now, it's crystal clear that they have to pay back more than they take in, which leaves a nasty hole in the budget for the coming month or two.”at 18:59
Real Vision: Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026 ·
Peter Tchir · Academy Securities
Global decoupling is real, which makes strong global equity valuations hard to achieve.
Tchir points to a week of deglobalization, citing a possible outage of Starlink or Starshield that would have been a huge story, and a response in Europe. He sees this as a real global decoupling and says that under those conditions he does not see how global valuations do well.
“So I think this global decoupling is real and that I don't see how you do well on global valuations”at 5:16
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 19th, 2026 ·
Jim Lebenthal · Cerity Partners
Tariffs on steel are unlikely to fall below 25% from 50%, and it will take a long time to get there.
Responding to the concern that tariffs could fall from 50% to zero, Jim says he would be very surprised by any drop below 25% under Section 232. Even if it happened, hot-rolled coil prices would not return to $800 a ton. He also notes tariffs have been a headwind for Cleveland-Cliffs, through its Canadian Stelco operation, so the effect cuts both ways.
“Your point is well made. First off, I would be very surprised. I think the world would be surprised if we took tariffs from 50% under section two thirty two to anything less than 25%.”at 30:58
CNBC Halftime Report: Managing Risk in a Volatile Market 10/19/26 ·
Jim Bianco · Bianco Research, L.L.C.
Tariffs are a bipartisan choice that ended goods deflation; the US won't return to cheap imports.
Bianco argues that tariffs are a deliberate policy choice that both parties support. He cites a San Francisco Fed paper finding that most recent goods inflation came from tariffs, and agrees with it, but says the paper's implication to stop tariffs misses the point. Cheap Chinese imports after WTO entry gutted US manufacturing towns and fed deaths of despair, which is why both parties adopted barriers. He cites BYD cars such as the Seal and Seagull, priced at $10,000 to $15,000, which are banned in the US. Letting them in would bankrupt the US auto industry. He says Europe is now seeing the same hollowing out, which is fuelling populist parties.
“Tariffs are a choice. We want these tariffs. And by the way, so do the Democrats.”at 9:55
Monetary Matters: Jim Bianco: Why I’m Finally Buying Bonds After Six Years ·
Ben Carlson · Ritholtz Wealth Management
Tariffs were a terrible idea that raised goods prices with no manufacturing benefit.
Carlson cites a New York Fed report finding that by February 2026 tariffs had contributed 2.9 percentage points to goods price inflation, and that without them goods prices would have fallen significantly. He notes the promised manufacturing revival did not happen, with manufacturing down about 24%. He concludes there was no tangible benefit, calling it possibly one of the worst economic ideas ever, and says it was one of the rare policies that sane people across parties opposed.
“I think this is possibly one of the worst economic ideas we've ever had.”at 24:37
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Trina Chen · Goldman Sachs
Trade restrictions on Chinese companies slow their progress but won't change the long-run outcome.
Chen calls trade restrictions and market-access hurdles a speed bump. They can change the trajectory of Chinese companies' expansion, but they don't change the outcome in the long run because the competitor is already present. Practically, firms should avoid sensitive products and sectors that create friction, such as autos. Companies with strong market positions and no substitutes can still navigate this environment.
“I view these restrictions or hurdles as more of a speed bump. So they could change trajectory but they don't change the outcome in the long run because the competitor is here.”at 13:50
Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Where Chinese Exports Are Gaining the Most Market Share ·
Dominik Leusder · London School of Economics
The EU's Industrial Accelerator Act will likely be too little, too late; worst case is a full EU-China trade war.
The EU's Industrial Accelerator Act, with 'by Europe' provisions to protect the auto market, is slow, divided between France, Germany and exporters, and trapped by 27-country veto bargaining that regresses to the lowest common denominator. Outcomes will be too little, too late. China retaliates in an institutionalized, rapid way (e.g., blacklisting European industrial firms the day after EU sanctions). The likely scenario is a weak EU measure met with a minor Chinese concession that doesn't change the industrial shift; the worst case is a full trade war.
“I think a likely scenario is that the EU does something eventually next year that because of these problems in finding decisions, will be too little... The worst scenario is a full blown trade war.”at 53:41
Odd Lots: What Everyone Gets Wrong About the Economic Problems in Europe ·
Krishna Guha · Evercore ISI
Trump's trade war caused an initial inflation wave as import prices rose, now rolling over.
Guha says the Trump administration launched a trade war that created at least an initial wave of inflation because imported prices shot up. By the point the tariff impact was starting to roll over, the Mideast war had pushed oil higher, and the AI demand boom added difficult judgments. He presents the tariff-driven price shock as a real but temporary inflation impulse that was fading before the other shocks hit.
“Trump comes in, launches a trade war, which of course creates at least an initial wave of inflation because imported prices shoot up.”at 46:57
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Ed Yardeni · Yardeni Research
Tariffs are not causing a Smoot-Hawley-style collapse; the economy is absorbing them.
He does not expect a Smoot-Hawley-style tariff shock. Tariffs were imposed last year and are still in place, but they have not taken the economy down. He notes that the 1930s crash was linked to Smoot-Hawley. He says a stock market calamity or some other crisis is a more plausible threat to the consumer than tariffs.
“I don't think we're gonna get Smoot Hawley tariff. We had tariffs last year, still do, and they're really not taking the economy down.”at 24:27
Excess Returns: Ed Yardeni Still Sees S&P 10,000 by 2029. So Why Is He Getting More Cautious? ·
Aidan Garrib · PGM Global
Reshoring from China would require massive US inflation; administration accepts some inflation.
Aidan argues the US cannot reshore what China produces without massive inflation. Imported inflation is already 5.6% year over year, Chinese-origin goods are at about 3% and Korean semiconductors at 12.6%. Trump is using alliance deals with Japan and Korea, with Japan spending about $500bn on energy infrastructure and data center capex, to move hardware production to allies while the US leads AI. He reads the short-term inflation as something the administration tolerates while managing messaging to keep the public and bond market calm.
“there's just no way that we're going to reshor what China does without massive inflation in The US.”at 40:57
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