Trump strikes Russian diesel deal... And Apple’s latest iPhone woes 10/9/26

Apple

Across the shows: 8 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementBearish

  Weak iPhone 18 demand would hurt Apple, which trades at 36x forward earnings and has a high bar.

  Courtney lays out scenarios. The Duo foldable being the reason buyers wait is the best case but overly hopeful. Waiting for a cheaper spring model is less positive. The worst case is that upgrades don't happen. She wants clarity at early-November earnings, and says Apple's 36x forward multiple means it has a high bar to clear.

  “worst case scenario would be people aren't upgrading the way they thought they would if the demand isn't there for Apple... especially when it's trading 36 times forward earnings. It's not a cheap stock. So they have a high bar they have to reach here.”at 34:50

• Joe Zidle · CressetBearish

  Apple lags on AI and Siri is weak, so some users are switching to Android.

  He switched from iPhone to Android because Google's phones are built around AI and he wanted that integration. He says Apple has lagged and Siri has been constantly disappointing. This is his own experience rather than a broad data point, and he frames it as one example of the possible fourth scenario, where buyers leave the Apple ecosystem for Android.

  “the Google phones, are built around AI... Apple has lagged. Siri has been constantly disappointing, and I really wanted a better AI experience, so I traded up to the Google.”at 35:41

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBearish

  Apple iPhone units likely fall about 5%, showing up in fiscal 2027 guidance.

  Apple shipped about 232 million iPhones in 2024 and about 247 million in 2025, a super-cycle year. Expectations for 2026 are about 235 million, a decline. The new model is a very iterative phone, priced about $100 more, and he doubts many people are waiting for the Duo, which he expects to be a rounding error. He also cites reported difficulty with yields in producing the phones. Together these point to units falling about 5%, which he expects to show up in fiscal 2027 guidance, possibly not this quarter but in the not-so-distant future.

  “I think you have a situation where you probably have units down 5%, and that should come out in fiscal twenty twenty seven guidance.”at 36:10

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLCNeutral

  Apple is a hold: a steady, unexciting uptrend that long holders should keep.

  He reads Apple's chart as a good, steady uptrend that is not exciting. That supports holding the stock if you are already long. He treats hold as a rating that matches the chart, not a sell call.

  “Anyway, Apple. This is what a hold is... It's a hold. It's a good steady uptrend. It's not exciting. You hold the stock if you're long.”at 37:11

Palantir Technologies

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBullish

  Palantir's fast growth and transparent CEO justify its premium, especially in enterprise and government.

  Dan says Palantir's revenue is growing fast off a low base, with about $8.5 billion expected this year and more next year. The stock trades at about 60 times sales, which looks rich, but he argues that CEO Karp is candid and not afraid to push back on frontier labs. That trust should become a key differentiator in enterprise and government.

  “revenues are growing fast off a very low base... I'd much rather trust Doctor. Karp than Doctor. Zuckerberg”at 31:55

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLCBullish

  Palantir's record high clears overhead supply; the breakout signals new buying and looks fine.

  Carter notes Palantir fell about 50% from its prior high a year ago and has now recovered. Since no one has owned shares at higher prices, there is no overhead supply, and everyone holding is happy except shorts, who are forced to buy as the price rises. He reads the new highs as genuine new buying.

  “Stock lost 50% of its value, and it's just now recouped those losses, and that's an all clear sign... No one has ever owned the shares higher, which means everyone is happy with their Palantir experience except someone who's short.”at 32:56

Merck & Co.

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementBullish

  Merck is the better trade on the cancer vaccine partnership: more diversified, without Moderna's extended move.

  Courtney says Moderna is up over 600% this year, so the move is already extended. Merck is part of the same NIH-linked cancer vaccine work, so if the two collaborate, Merck offers a much more diversified portfolio and hasn't had the same pop. She would take Merck for a trade.

  “look at Moderna, it's up over 600% this year... I would actually take a Merck here because if they are gonna work together, that is a much more diversified portfolio, and it doesn't have nearly the same pop it does.”at 21:53

Moderna

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLCBullish

  Moderna's relative strength and momentum are strong, so he would not fade or short it.

  Carter says relative strength and momentum are among the most widely tested factors, and Moderna has both after a massive run. Idiosyncratic winners and losers are normal in biotech, but he respects the price action. He would not fade or short the stock.

  “of all the factors that have ever been tested... everyone knows relative strength and momentum. If this has both, I would not fade it, and I wouldn't short it.”at 22:46

Anthropic

Across the shows: 21 speakers in other episodes, 9 bullish and 35 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBearish

  Anthropic's roughly $2 trillion valuation after near-doubling looks stretched; he'd rather buy cheaper AI names.

  Dan points out Anthropic was valued near $50 billion about two and a half years ago and is now seeking a valuation near $2 trillion after nearly doubling in a few months. He doesn't know what public investors are thinking. He says he would rather buy Firmus or n-scale, where he could double and triple if the bubble inflates.

  “...if you're trying to do a $2,000,000,000,000 valuation on Anthropic double nearly from what it was, you know, a few months ago, this is a company that was valued at $50,000,000,000, like, two and a half years ago.”at 27:00

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 20 speakers in other episodes, 20 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLCBearish

  Nvidia has only matched the market over a year and semis haven't topped out; he'd wait for distribution.

  Carter argues price action is the only reliable guide to the peak in AI and commoditization. Semis have not yet exceeded their prior peak, and Nvidia has done poorly on a relative basis, only matching the market for a year. He says the high flyers are still high and the market should show distribution before he believes the top is in.

  “Semis, as of now, have yet to exceed their peak. We shall see. NVIDIA doesn't act very well on a relative basis. It's only matched the market for a year”at 30:13

MGM Resorts International

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLCBullish

  MGM is so beaten down it is worth a speculative long.

  MGM, Wynn and Las Vegas Sands are each down about 45% over one year. He says they are so bad they are good, which makes them worth a speculative long. The case rests on the depth of the drawdown and a contrarian reading of the price action, not on a fundamental forecast.

  “Getting closer to the point, each down about 45% on a one year base, I'd say they're so bad they're good, worth a speculative long.”at 41:30

Las Vegas Sands

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLCBullish

  Las Vegas Sands is so beaten down it is worth a speculative long.

  Las Vegas Sands, Wynn and MGM are each down about 45% over one year. He says they are so bad they are good, which makes them worth a speculative long. The case rests on the depth of the drawdown and a contrarian reading of the price action, not on a fundamental forecast.

  “Getting closer to the point, each down about 45% on a one year base, I'd say they're so bad they're good, worth a speculative long.”at 41:30

Wynn Resorts

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLCBullish

  Wynn is so beaten down it is worth a speculative long.

  Wynn, MGM and Las Vegas Sands are each down about 45% over one year. He says they are so bad they are good, which makes them worth a speculative long. The case rests on the depth of the drawdown and a contrarian reading of the price action, not on a fundamental forecast.

  “Getting closer to the point, each down about 45% on a one year base, I'd say they're so bad they're good, worth a speculative long.”at 41:30

Alibaba Group Holding

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBullish

  Alibaba looks interesting after a washed-out selloff, helped by its competitive AI model.

  He calls BABA pretty interesting but maybe a little washed out. The weak Chinese consumer is a drag, and China may need to support it. The AI tailwind offsets that. Alibaba has a model that performs fairly well against a couple of the big Chinese models and is catching up to some US models. Its low-cost structure lets it take models global. He expects a race to the bottom on pricing, which may mean something different for Kimi and Qwen.

  “I think BABA is probably pretty interesting here. Maybe a little washed out... They have a model that's actually performing fairly well against a couple of the big ones in China, but also catching up on some of the ones here.”at 41:57

Bloomin' Brands

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLCBullish

  Bloomin' Brands has formed a double bottom at the COVID low and is a long.

  Bloomin' has fallen about 80% from its high, but he sees an important bottoming formation, either a bullish reverse or a head-and-shoulders bottom. The $5 low is the same level where the stock bottomed before, and it is the absolute low of COVID. The stock bounced off it dramatically, which he reads as a classic and important double bottom. He calls it a long.

  “this five low... is exactly where it bottomed before. And it found that low beautifully and has ricocheted off it dramatically.”at 43:14

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementBullish

  Going into bank earnings, XLF is a good way to play the whole banking sector.

  Bank earnings are coming up. She would look at the banks and suggests XLF as a way to play the entire sector. The case is brief and rests on the upcoming reporting season.

  “We're going into bank earnings. I would actually take a look at the banks here and look at XLF. It's a way to play the entire sector.”at 45:53

Oil & fuels

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal Media

  The Russian diesel deal is horrible, politically driven policy, too little too late to move prices.

  Dan says the 300,000 tons, about 2.2 million barrels, is tiny against global daily consumption of roughly 28 million barrels, and even the US figure of about 4 million a day dwarfs the release. He sees the deal as a headline driven by the midterms that makes a deal with an adversary at Ukraine's expense. He expects the policy won't have the intended effect and that moving produce out of California carries costs that are built into prices.

  “This is horrible policy based on politics too little too late. And you know it's not going to have effect like you know the expected.”at 5:54

• Joe Zidle · Cresset

  Geopolitical premium should persist in oil and diesel; prices fall slowly after spikes while Ukraine keeps hitting refineries.

  Joe argues Ukraine has no incentive to hold back strikes on Russian refining, which has made a material difference to what Russia can deliver. Given that uncertainty he expects a geopolitical premium to stay in diesel and oil. Prices went up 'in an elevator' and will come down 'in an escalator', so declines will take much longer than the rise.

  “I think for those reasons, you're gonna wanna, you know, maintain a geopolitical premium in not only diesel prices, but in oil prices. So what we've seen is these things went up in an elevator. And if they do come down, it's gonna be like going down in an escalator.”at 6:18

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  The Russian diesel deal won't dent diesel prices because the structural refinery problem remains unfixed.

  Courtney sees the move as a political headline win as consumer sentiment falls. She argues the deal does not fix the structural refinery shortfall, so diesel prices stay high. She expects rates to stay higher for longer and the consumer to keep being squeezed by inflation.

  “I agree with everyone on the desk that realistically, this isn't gonna make a dent in diesel prices, especially when there's a structural refinery problem that that's really not gonna fix.”at 8:29

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLC

  Refiner stocks barely reacted to the diesel deal, showing it is too little, too late.

  Carter's test is price action: if the market took the news seriously, refiners such as Valero, Phillips 66 and similar names would have dropped sharply. They barely moved, which he reads as a tell that the deal is either too small or arrived too late to matter.

  “If the market is wise and we look for price action to determine the validity or import of news, there was no reaction really in the refiners.”at 9:07

Banks

• Joe Zidle · Cresset

  Financials face a tough earnings backdrop as Fed hikes at the front end flatten the yield curve.

  Joe expects the Fed to hike at the front end while the 10-year stays around 5.3%, which flattens the curve. He says a flat curve is not the best environment for banks. Earnings estimates have risen recently, but he thinks banks are entering a difficult setup.

  “I think it's gonna continue to be a bit challenging for the financials, mainly because we've got the Fed that's likely to hike on the front end of the curve.”at 14:05

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal Media

  AI agents chasing higher yields on cash could pull deposits from big banks and hurt net interest income.

  Dan says about two-thirds of net income at JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells comes from net interest margin on $1.6 trillion of non-interest-bearing deposits. If AI agents go looking for higher yield on that cash, it becomes a problem for banks. He allows that cost savings from AI could offset this, but he notes bank CEOs have been cautious about the adverse effects.

  “If you have these agents now going around and searching for higher yield on cash that you have at these banks on a longer term, that is going to be a problem for it.”at 16:17

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  AI-agent threat to banks is overstated; the bank index has fallen five weeks and rate-peak fears may be priced in.

  Courtney agrees the AI disruption story is overly negative. The bank index has been down five straight weeks, so the bar is low. If rates are peaking, some of that pressure is already priced in, and she would start to look at some banks ahead of earnings.

  “I would argue that these AI agents are probably overstated here. I do think if rates are hitting a peak here, that maybe some of that has already been priced in.”at 17:18

• Carter Braxton Worth · Worth Charting LLC

  Big bank stocks are only about 5% of the S&P and don't move the market; their 20%+ drawdowns may set up a buy.

  Carter adds up JPMorgan, Wells, Bank of America and regional banks and finds they make up about 5% of the S&P 500. Implied earnings moves are about 3% either way, so he says banks aren't market-moving and only tech matters. Many banks are down more than 20% from peak, so the setup may be an opportunity.

  “if you add up the market cap of JP and Wells and Bank of America and even the superregions... the whole thing's about five percent of the S and P. ... perhaps that setup is the opportunity.”at 18:01

US inflation

• Joe Zidle · Cresset

  Diesel-driven inflation has yet to hit core prices; food, packaging and construction costs follow over months.

  Joe describes phases. Pump prices come first, then transport costs such as California produce trucked nationwide at the highest diesel prices. Food, refrigeration, asphalt and construction follow over three to twelve months. Agriculture and freight have thin margins, so they can't absorb the cost. He says the inflation damage still lies ahead.

  “I think a lot of the damage in terms of like the inflationary pressure and things like that still sort of lie in front of us. ... Those second and third order effects take months to years to work themselves into the core parts of the inflation basket.”at 6:56

• Joe Zidle · Cresset

  Services inflation will persist as affluent spending stays strong, and that is what the Fed must chip away at.

  Delta's earnings are a window into the top 10% of household income. Delta raised premium seat counts and prices with double-digit fare increases, and people kept flying, which shows an appetite to spend at any price. Services ex-shelter is the category most correlated with wage pressure, so the Fed has to stay on guard against it.

  “...they have an insatiable appetite to spend. ... So what you're seeing is services inflation. The pressure in services, I think, we'll continue to see. ... services ex shelter ... ends up being most highly correlated with wage pressure.”at 11:01

China's economy

• Joe Zidle · Cresset

  China faces a demographic headwind it cannot solve as its population shrinks.

  China's economy has underperformed for several years. A big headwind it cannot solve is demographics. The working-age population started shrinking four to five years ago, and now the total population is declining in absolute numbers. He concludes that demographics are destiny and China will struggle to solve this. He ties this to the Macau gambling slump.

  “They've got a big headwind that they can't solve for, and that's demographic. Their population is in decline... demographics are destiny.”at 40:54

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal Media

  China has structural cost advantages in capital, labor and energy that let its models compete globally.

  He says China has the backing. It has the lowest cost of capital, lowest cost of labor and lowest cost of energy. That lets Chinese AI models be deployed around the world at low cost. He expects a race to the bottom on AI pricing but thinks this advantage may matter for models such as Kimi and Qwen. He also says the consumer is very weak and China may have to support it.

  “China's got the backing. They have the lowest cost of capital, lowest cost of labor, and lowest cost of energy.”at 41:57

US rates & the Fed

• Joe Zidle · Cresset

  Expects at least two more Fed hikes in six months and about three in twelve.

  Joe points to oil and diesel pressure feeding into core inflation, which he says will take time to show. He adds the stickiness of services demand, where Delta's premium seats and double-digit fare rises show high earners spending at any price. He concludes the Fed has to keep tightening.

  “I think we are going to see at least two more hikes over the course of the next six months. And I think we'll see probably three hikes over the next twelve months.”at 10:42

US Treasuries & yields

• Joe Zidle · Cresset

  The 10-year yield near 5.3% is probably at its ceiling; most bad news is priced in.

  Joe argues the 10-year has already absorbed the Fed pivot to hikes, the Japan intervention, the French yield spike and the oil shock. Recent 10- and 30-year auctions were strong, with bid-to-cover above six-month averages, so supply worries are being met by buyers. He concludes the 10-year is near its ceiling.

  “But I think the ten year treasury yield at about 5.3% is probably near its ceiling.”at 14:05

Pharma & biotech

• Joe Zidle · Cresset

  AI will hit biotech most visibly; he prefers cutting-edge biotech developers over big pharma, via an ETF basket.

  Joe argues AI will have its most near-term and visible effect in biotech. Big pharma is strong at distribution, but the biotech developers are the ones creating the drugs and using AI to speed development. He would own them over the medium to long term, possibly through a diversified basket rather than a single name.

  “if I think about where is AI going to impact us, like most near term and have the most sort of visceral and important impact, I think it's going to be in the biotech space.”at 22:12

IPOs, M&A & deal activity

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal Media

  Delayed AI IPOs reflect investors wanting only Anthropic; other private AI names are being crowded out.

  Dan says the Firmus delay is less about its valuation and more about investor appetite. With the Nasdaq at highs, public investors want Anthropic and are uninterested in other AI names. Delayed listings are a problem for these companies because a valuation premium was built in.

  “I actually think it has more to do with the only thing that investors want right now is Anthropic.”at 26:16

AI pricing & unit economics

• Joe Zidle · Cresset

  Frontier AI labs chase a winner-take-all prize that ends as a commoditized product with falling prices.

  Joe says the business model is winner-take-all, but the prize at the end is a commoditized product with falling prices. That makes him nervous about the AI trade. He compares it with electricity, railroads and the internet, where investors over-capitalized and the cycle followed, though the underlying technology still delivered.

  “this is a winner take all type mentality that we're seeing. ... The prize is a commoditized product with falling prices.”at 27:39

Enterprise AI adoption & AI software

• Joe Zidle · Cresset

  Firms that deeply embed cheap AI into operations will earn durable returns, as Ford did with electricity.

  Joe prefers owning the companies building on cheap AI over those racing to develop it. He uses the electricity history: the utilities owners went bankrupt, but Ford built factories on cheap power and dominated for almost a century. He thinks companies that would have their lights go off without AI will see durable benefits.

  “They dominated for almost one hundred years. So I think about the companies who would say, If we didn't use AI, it be lights off at our business.”at 29:45

Consumer & retail

• Contessa Brewer · CNBC

  Macau casino promotions to lure big spenders will squeeze operators' margins.

  Gross gaming revenue fell 7% in August despite record visitor numbers, and September fell 17% month over month. Operators are using heavy promotions to attract big gamblers. She says this will squeeze margins, as it has in past earnings calls, and expects the same to show up when the companies report. Management says the slump is a cycle, but the promotional spending is the mechanism she points to.

  “Yeah. I mean, especially if they're having to issue the promotions to get the big spenders to come into their properties, that's going to squeeze margins.”at 39:55

US consumer

• Joe Zidle · Cresset

  The K-shaped consumer is narrowing as economy-class flyers spend more, per Delta.

  Delta reported double-digit revenue growth in its economy section. Delta said economy-class flyers were still spending more, which he reads as narrowing the K-shaped economy. He presents this as support for a Bloomin' Brands rebound, which would be a positive sign for middle-income consumers. The case rests on Delta's commentary rather than his own data.

  “they talked about their economy section and turns out their revenue growth there was double digits... they were narrowing the k on this k shaped economy.”at 44:30