Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 11th, 2026

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 105 speakers in other episodes, 87 bullish and 59 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jeannette Lowe · Baird StrategasBearish

  Congressional investigations into Nvidia will intensify, and the company will struggle to block them.

  Lowe says Democrats were already planning investigations into Nvidia. The concern that a top AI-trade company is under investigation for potential Chinese influence will attract more attention. She argues it will be harder for the company to block congressional inquiries. She also says the PR fallout from a political outlook could hurt the company, and notes there are several reports of Nvidia chips lost or stolen.

  “The fact that there could be one of the top companies involved in the USAI trade, being under investigation for potential, influenced by Chinese operatives is gonna definitely get a lot more attention, and it's gonna be harder for the company to completely block them”at 18:03

• Jay Goldberg · Seaport Research PartnersBearish

  The risk of Jensen Huang's removal is significant; Nvidia without him is a very different company.

  Goldberg says the revelation over the weekend torpedoed his planned upgrade of Nvidia. Huang has 70 direct reports, and everything runs through him, so his removal would leave the company very different. Goldberg says it is hard to think of a replacement. He notes Nvidia has no obvious successor, unlike Apple, which had planned for Tim Cook long before Steve Jobs left. This is a deliberate strategy to make Huang the face of the company, so no other executives are well known.

  “the risk of Jensen being removed from his role is significant. He is the heart and soul of that company. He has 70 direct reports. Everything runs through him.”at 24:29

• Jay Goldberg · Seaport Research PartnersNeutral

  Allegations against Huang look like an orchestrated political takedown rooted in DC rivalry.

  Goldberg says the allegations look like an organised political takeout. Huang has been very active in political circles, which draws rivalry in DC, and the knives look out. He says it will be hard to prove what influence the alleged relationship had. Many of the actions he is accused of, such as loosening China sales restrictions, are things he would normally do as the head of a chip seller.

  “This looks a lot like an organized, orchestrated political takeout.”at 27:28

• Jay Goldberg · Seaport Research PartnersNeutral

  Roughly 20% of Nvidia sales go to China and Southeast Asia, and so far mostly legitimately.

  Goldberg says Nvidia reclassified its geographic segments two or three quarters ago, which makes the breakdown less clear. His best guess is about 20% of sales go to China and Southeast Asia. That makes up a significant portion of revenue. He says so far most of it has been legitimate, but the export rules are murky and the line is fine.

  “My best guess is it's about 20% of sales go to to China and Southeast Asia. So it's a significant portion of of of their revenue. ... So far, most of it is... All of it's been legitimate.”at 29:20

• Jay Goldberg · Seaport Research PartnersBullish

  Nvidia is likely to report pretty good numbers next week, though few may care.

  Goldberg says Nvidia reports next week and he expects pretty good numbers. He doubts anyone will care much about them, given the controversy. The view is short and rests on expectations rather than specific figures.

  “They're gonna report next week, and I think they're gonna report pretty good numbers. I don't know that anyone's gonna care about them”at 30:06

• Jay Goldberg · Seaport Research PartnersBearish

  Nvidia will be hobbled near term, spending its time with lawyers instead of running the business.

  Goldberg says regardless of what happens with Huang, Nvidia is somewhat hobbled for the time being. Management will spend a lot of time with lawyers that they cannot spend on the business. He sees this as an opening for rivals, which he names separately.

  “NVIDIA is somewhat hobbled in... Just for the time being. If for nothing else, they're gonna be spending a lot of time with lawyers that they can't spend on their business.”at 30:11

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 91 speakers in other episodes, 27 bullish and 103 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Julian Emanuel · Evercore ISIBullish

  CoreWeave's results are reassuring for credit investors worried about neocloud debt capacity.

  Emanuel says the AI trade's earlier worries centred on the bond market, with people fearing hyperscalers and others could no longer issue debt. He says CoreWeave's report is reassuring on a credit that investors had been most concerned about, for credit investors at all levels. The argument is brief and rests on the report's reception rather than specific figures.

  “But this report in one of the credits that people have been most concerned about is really reassuring for a credit investor on all levels.”at 2:58

Anthropic

Across the shows: 113 speakers in other episodes, 154 bullish and 91 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Julian Emanuel · Evercore ISIBullish

  Anthropic's IPO needs to go well; the early valuation upsizing talk is a positive sign.

  Emanuel frames the Anthropic IPO as the next test for the AI trade and says it needs to go well. He points to the talk in the last 24 hours of upsizing the valuation, which he says he did not expect days earlier, as a positive. He expects retail participation and sees no reason the deal won't go smoothly.

  “it needs to go well and lo and behold, the new slow around it over the last twenty four hours is, you know, we're starting to think about upsizing the valuation. ... And that is a positive”at 4:28

Broadcom

Across the shows: 11 speakers in other episodes, 10 bullish and 6 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jay Goldberg · Seaport Research PartnersBullish

  Broadcom is well placed to pick up AI chip share while Nvidia is distracted by legal issues.

  Goldberg argues Nvidia will spend a lot of time with lawyers rather than on its business. He says that is a good opportunity for companies like AMD and Broadcom to pick up share. The view rests on Nvidia's distraction, and he gives no timing or sizing.

  “that's gonna be a good opportunity for companies like AMD and Broadcom to pick up share.”at 30:32

Advanced Micro Devices

Across the shows: 16 speakers in other episodes, 15 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jay Goldberg · Seaport Research PartnersBullish

  AMD is well placed to pick up AI chip share while Nvidia is distracted by legal issues.

  Goldberg argues Nvidia will spend a lot of time with lawyers rather than on its business. He says that is a good opportunity for companies like AMD and Broadcom to pick up share. The view rests on Nvidia's distraction, and he gives no timing or sizing.

  “that's gonna be a good opportunity for companies like AMD and Broadcom to pick up share.”at 30:32

AI: overall outlook

• Julian Emanuel · Evercore ISI

  The AI theme broadly has much further to run; his AI basket spans chips, Mag Seven and software.

  Evercore ISI built an 'AI class of 2027' basket covering chips, Mag Seven and software stocks. Emanuel says the firm owns these because it believes the broader AI theme has much further to run. He declined to talk about single stocks, so the case rests on the basket construction and the belief in the theme rather than company-level data.

  “we've constructed this basket that you know wants to own chips, wants to own MAG seven, wants to own software because we believe that the theme broadly has much further to run.”at 2:14

• Julian Emanuel · Evercore ISI

  The AI trade can continue without Jensen Huang; the theme is bigger than any key-person risk.

  Emanuel concedes that Huang's removal as Nvidia CEO would be a blow. He argues the AI trade can continue anyway. His evidence is that the Nasdaq was materially higher than Monday morning despite the news. He also expects the ecosystem to adapt, as it did after DeepSeek and earlier moments, with incumbents filling what Huang provides.

  “We think it can. ... the Nasdaq is materially higher on the screen right now than it was first thing Monday morning and that tells you that this theme is bigger than any key man or key woman risk.”at 3:54

US Treasuries & yields

• Julian Emanuel · Evercore ISI

  The bond market overshot both ways; yields are returning to the middle of their recent range.

  Emanuel says the bond market overshot to the upside and then the downside in yields over the last few weeks. He sees yields returning to the middle of the range after the biggest front-end yield jump since April 2025. He ties this to the Fed view that a 50bp hike is off the table.

  “in our mind, the bond market had overshot to the upside, undershot to the downside in terms of yields at the last few weeks. You're really going right back into the middle of the range”at 5:16

US growth & recession risk

• Julian Emanuel · Evercore ISI

  US growth is glided down toward 2.2–2.3% in 2027, with no reason to think otherwise.

  Emanuel's firm economist Krishna Guha thinks the last quarter was peak growth for the cycle, with growth moderating from here. Emanuel says there is no reason to believe that view is wrong. That leaves the glide path toward 2.2% to 2.3% GDP in 2027. He also says GDP should be well above 2% next year, helped by AI-related spending.

  “If that view is incorrect and we have no reason to believe at this point that it is, again the glide path is towards 2.2 or 2.3 GDP in 2027.”at 7:09

US rates & the Fed

• Julian Emanuel · Evercore ISI

  The Fed will deliver a 25bp hike in December, not 50bp, though no guidance beyond December.

  Emanuel says the bond market had overshot in both directions over the last few weeks and yields are returning to the middle of the range. Oil is 16% below its end-of-October level, and pass-through is slow. He rejects a 50bp hike as 'not happening', despite jawboning. He expects a 25bp hike in December, then will wait for the data. He won't give guidance beyond December.

  “We definitely think you get 25 in December and then let's see what the data shows and how things start to evolve.”at 8:08

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Julian Emanuel · Evercore ISI

  Tech trades at a discount to the S&P 500 for the first time since 2010, so regulatory risk is priced in.

  Emanuel argues that much of the regulatory uncertainty is already in the price. The tech sector trades at a discount to the S&P 500 for the first time since 2010. The valuation is also arguably more consistent with how tech traded before the internet revolution, let alone the AI revolution.

  “I think a lot of it is in the price. If you look at it the tech sector is trading at a valuation discount to the S and P 500 for the first time since 2010”at 10:47

Earnings & corporate profits

• Julian Emanuel · Evercore ISI

  S&P 500 earnings growth in 2027 will likely be near 10%, below the 15.6% consensus; still enough for stocks.

  Emanuel says a regulatory slowdown could at the margin dent the earnings growth profile. Consensus expects about 15.6% growth in 2027, but he thinks growth will be closer to 10%. He says double-digit growth is still likely to be good enough for stocks.

  “consensus is calling for about 15.6% growth in 2027. We think it's probably closer to 10%. Double digits is still likely to be good enough for stocks”at 11:15

AI & jobs

• Julian Emanuel · Evercore ISI

  Models undercount AI's contribution to GDP by missing knock-on effects on employment.

  Emanuel says that when people try to model AI's contribution to GDP, there is a tendency to undercount the knock-on effects to employment. He gives the example of a gas station near Elon Musk's new town that would not have existed otherwise. The view is illustrative rather than quantified.

  “when people try and model what AI's contribution to GDP is, is that there's a tendency to undercount the knock on effects to employment”at 12:04

US stock market outlook

• Julian Emanuel · Evercore ISI

  The bull market is four years old and creaky, but by no means over.

  Emanuel says the bull market is four years old and should be a little creakier at this age, given the uncertainty. He argues it is by no means over. This is a general view on the cycle without a specific valuation or data point beyond his earnings and valuation comments.

  “We are four years into a bull market. It should be a little creakier at this age, but by no means over.”at 12:30

US–China AI & chip race

• Jeannette Lowe · Baird Strategas

  Bipartisan chip export restrictions will likely be enacted in the year-end defense bill, after the Nvidia situation.

  Lowe says the chip export provisions have bipartisan support and were in the Senate's version of the National Defense Authorization Act. Industry pushback had stalled them in the House. The Nvidia situation will push these provisions into the bill when it is finalised by year-end. She also expects possible curbs on remote cloud access to advanced chips, and expects more scrutiny on Commerce to tighten controls.

  “the pieces ... do have bipartisan support. ... This new situation with NVIDIA is going to propel those provisions to likely be included as part of the bill when it gets done by the end of the year.”at 16:17

US–China relations

• Jeannette Lowe · Baird Strategas

  China hawks in both parties will push the administration for tighter China restrictions after a shaky trade truce.

  Lowe says China hawks in both parties were uncomfortable for two years with administration moves seen as too deferential to China. The US–China relationship is rockier in recent months, since the trade deal was only extended for two months. She expects those members to become more vocal and to press the administration to tighten China restrictions and restrict national security risks.

  “We had a number of these individuals who were sitting for the past two years rather uncomfortable with some of the moves that the administration had been making, feeling that they were being too deferential to China.”at 20:13

AI chips & semiconductors

• Jay Goldberg · Seaport Research Partners

  AI chip demand remains real, so the Huang situation has fairly minimal impact on the chip sector.

  Goldberg says the broader impact on the chip sector and AI trade is fairly minimal. The AI trade is real and there is still demand for AI chips. Nvidia will report pretty good numbers next week. He argues the Huang situation will not change that demand picture.

  “I think fairly minimal. ... but the AI AI trade is is real. I think there's still demand for AI chips.”at 30:06