Speaker · Updated
Julian Emanuel: latest market views
Evercore ISI
Summary
Julian Emanuel is senior managing director and chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI, who joined in 2021 after serving as chief equity and derivatives strategist at BTIG and in a similar role at UBS.
Chorus has 7 views from Julian Emanuel across 2 episodes on CNBC Fast Money and CNBC Closing Bell since October 21, 2026.
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Expects volatility around midterms, then a fourth-quarter rally on undisturbed earnings and cheap valuations
Emanuel expects volatility into the midterms as active managers de-risk, with the VIX at 21 and a sector pattern of energy and tech leading while consumer discretionary lags. He argues the earnings-growth trajectory with valuation compression is intact and politics is unlikely to disturb it. He adds that an expected IPO in late 2026 or early 2027 could push the Nasdaq higher, as a June IPO did, and that Nasdaq and S&P 500 valuations are about as cheap as they have been in a decade. He concludes the setup points to a fourth-quarter rally.
“But the earnings growth is likely not to be disturbed by politics and we do think you set up for a fourth quarter rally.”at 40:27
CNBC Fast Money: First Apple Earnings Report Under Ternus… And Data Center Buildout Backlash 11/2/26 ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
A capex pullback would slow economy-wide GDP enough to hurt markets, despite helping AI stocks
Emanuel says a capex pullback might help AI-related stocks by easing their valuations. However, AI buildout drives so much GDP growth that a cutback would have knock-on effects, slowing growth economy-wide more than the market would be comfortable with. He ties this to 2027 risks.
“from a CapEx perspective, if you pull back a little bit, it might be good for those stocks. But... The GDP growth attributable to is so significant that you are likely to have a knock on effect that causes growth economy wide to slow more than the market would be comfortable with.”at 43:02
CNBC Fast Money: First Apple Earnings Report Under Ternus… And Data Center Buildout Backlash 11/2/26 ·
Evercore expects 2027 S&P earnings growth a bit below the 15% priced in, still double digits
Emanuel sees the market pricing about 15% earnings growth for 2027. His firm's forecast sits somewhat below that but still in double digits. He names this gap as a likely challenge for 2027 stocks, which he sees as the main risk to the earnings trajectory beyond the year-end rally.
“when the market is pricing 15% earnings growth for 2027, we're a little bit below there, still double digits, that becomes a challenge.”at 43:28
CNBC Fast Money: First Apple Earnings Report Under Ternus… And Data Center Buildout Backlash 11/2/26 ·
Kinetic escalation with Iran could push the market down 5-10% from current levels
Emanuel lists Iran as a key swing factor around the midterms, alongside election disputes and AI. He says some scenarios will be benign, but kinetic escalation with Iran could drive a 5-10% market drop from current levels.
“particularly if we get kinetic escalation with Iran, that could send the markets down, you know, five to 10% from here.”at 44:18
CNBC Fast Money: First Apple Earnings Report Under Ternus… And Data Center Buildout Backlash 11/2/26 ·
Easing long-term yields set up significantly higher S&P prices in 2027, with the market flattish this year.
Emanuel says rates matter: hyperscaler capex is not price-insensitive, and financing strain at secondary companies plus credit widening show the capex boom has a finite limit. Yet the recent drop in longer-term yields is part of what he thinks will lead to significantly higher prices in 2027. The economy is still good and credit is still plentiful, which he calls medium- to longer-term bullish. He keeps a flattish S&P call for this year because liquidity is thin while investors wait for midterm outcomes and geopolitical risk plays out.
“Actually, the fact is, if you look at the market's reaction the last several weeks, with longer term yields coming in, you can argue that this is part of what we think is ultimately going to lead to significantly higher prices in 2027.”at 23:17
CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test 10/21/26 ·
If WTI stays above $100 into 2027, an economic slowdown becomes almost unavoidable.
Emanuel says the economy has been resilient so far, even though headlines about diesel prices are hitting household budgets. He does not take spending resilience for granted. If WTI is north of $100 in 2027, he says it is almost impossible not to conceive of some form of economic slowdown. He ties this to a wider case of political and headline-driven volatility, which makes the market sensitive day to day.
“If we are talking about WTI north of $100 in 2027, it's almost impossible not to conceive of some form of economic slowdown based on that.”at 25:46
CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test 10/21/26 ·
Credit is the arbiter of the AI capex boom; a breach of March stress levels would prompt reassessment.
Emanuel says credit conditions are the arbiter that eventually stops rising yields and rising stock prices, as in Y2K and Japan in the late 1980s. Credit default swap indices have made lower highs through the bull market. He sets the line in the sand at the stress levels reached at the March conflict peak. Capex has grown larger and risks have magnified, so breaching those levels would be the point to reevaluate his bullish case.
“If we were to take out sort of the levels of stress that we reached in the peak of the conflict in March, that... to us would be the level where we would probably want to start reevaluating.”at 26:44
CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test 10/21/26 ·
Shows
- CNBC Fast Money · 1 episode
- CNBC Closing Bell · 1 episode
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