Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 9th, 2026

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 79 speakers in other episodes, 67 bullish and 30 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Dudley · Bloomberg OpinionBearish

  NVIDIA's guarantees on the value of its chips create counterparty risk that could hurt its earnings.

  Dudley points to NVIDIA guaranteeing the value of its chips. If chip values fall, NVIDIA must find money to honor those guarantees. Its earnings would also suffer because it would be selling chips at lower prices. He thinks this counterparty risk is a little scary and needs a closer look as part of understanding where risks sit in the AI sector.

  “So, Nvidia is guaranteeing the value of their chips. So, what happens if the value of their chips goes down? Not only do they have to come up with the money to make good those guarantees, but their earnings are gonna suffer because they're gonna have lower chip prices.”at 15:02

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Liz Thomas · SoFi

  AI theme remains intact, but the AI build-out market cycle looks threatened and investors may have run ahead.

  Liz separates the AI innovation theme from the market cycle built around it. She says the AI theme is still intact and that the innovation cycle is probably still early. However, for a long time investors piled into stocks levered to the AI infrastructure build-out, and that market cycle now looks under threat, so the market may have got ahead of itself. She cites valuations being pushed down again by a big down day, a weak recovery, and investors getting choosier about which companies to pay up for, given doubts about 2027 expectations. She sees the capex numbers for 2027 as perhaps the most exposed.

  “I still think that that theme lives on... AI absolutely lives on, but there's a difference between the theme itself of innovation and what happens in the market... So I think right now that market cycle, especially for the AI build out, is looking like it's under threat and maybe we got a little ahead of our skis.”at 4:05

• Bill Dudley · Bloomberg Opinion

  AI boom could turn to bust, but a 2008-style financial crisis is less likely than feared.

  Dudley argues the AI boom is big enough to end in a bust, and the risk is made worse by a winner-take-all race. About seven or eight hyperscalers all want to win, and there will not be room for that many winners. He is more optimistic that this would not become a 2008-style crisis. People are openly discussing the AI bust risk, unlike before the GFC when housing was assumed never to decline nationally and subprime lending was seen as safe. AI financing is mostly from big established companies, not spread across mom-and-pop lenders as subprime was.

  “I think there, I'm a little bit more optimistic because, number one, people are talking about the risk of AI being a bust. They really weren't talking about the great financial crisis occurring as we're going up to it.”at 12:39

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Bill Dudley · Bloomberg Opinion

  AI financing is moving off balance sheet into opaque nonbank lending, needing transparency and a stability overseer.

  Dudley argues AI financing is shifting from equity markets and internal cash flow to off-balance-sheet borrowing in the nonbank financial sector. Regulators do not have a good picture of who owns what, who owes whom, and under what conditions. He calls for greater transparency. He also says the SEC has no financial stability mandate, so the Fed or the Financial Stability Oversight Council should be given explicit responsibility for the nonbank sector to assess counterparty risks.

  “we need better insight to what's happening in the nonbank financial sector because a lot of the activity in AI financing is moving from the equity market, and from cash flow now to off balance sheet borrowing, and we really don't have a good sense of who owns who owns what to whom”at 13:27

• Bill Dudley · Bloomberg Opinion

  Election-driven data center slowdown likely comes mainly in the medium to longer term; 2027 spending still rises.

  Dudley says the market speculated that the election outcome would sharply slow AI data center construction. He thinks that is probably right, but mostly in the medium to longer term, and he is not sure how fast it will happen. Many data centers are already under construction, so 2027 investment spending should still be higher than in 2026. This keeps upward pressure on the economy in the near term.

  “that's probably correct mostly in the medium to longer term, but I'm not sure how fast it's gonna happen. A lot of data centers are already... They're already under construction. So 2027... I still expect investment spending be higher than in 2026.”at 15:35

US stock market outlook

• Liz Thomas · SoFi

  No quick rebound to all-time highs; the market needs to level out before recovering.

  Liz points to weak recoveries after the big down day. Friday's advance-decline line on the S&P 500 was negative, and Monday's bounce was not impressive. She therefore does not expect a bounce back to all-time highs. She expects the market to level out somewhere first. She thinks buy-the-dip behavior is starting but says it is not yet there without discernment and will not take markets back to prior highs. She suggests waiting a few days for the dust to settle before judging how semis trade through the week.

  “don't think that there's a bounce back up to all time highs. I think that we have to level out somewhere and we will.”at 5:02

AI regulation & safety

• Liz Thomas · SoFi

  The NVIDIA probe isn't idiosyncratic; the whole AI chip complex faces more regulation as Democrats gain Congress.

  Liz argues the NVIDIA executive scandal and investigation will not stay idiosyncratic. A Democratic sweep of Congress last week, plus chatter about regulation already rising, makes a push for more regulation likely in 2027. She thinks this will fuel the fire further for the whole AI chip complex, not just NVIDIA. She hopes no more personal crises emerge, but sees the regulatory risk as sector-wide.

  “the likelihood of regulations picking up in twenty twenty seven, I think this probably only fuels that fire further... the entire complex is going to deal with the idea of possibly more regulations”at 5:48

US Treasuries & yields

• Liz Thomas · SoFi

  A 10-year Treasury above 5% offers attractive yield, and the Fed or Treasury is unlikely to let yields stay much higher.

  Liz argues that the 10-year Treasury yield crossing 5% gave investors a good income opportunity. She could not see a world where the Fed or Treasury would let yields hold at 5.25% or 6% for long, so the yield level looked like a good trade. She also sees high front-end yields as a hedge: if the Fed has to turn dovish within about six months because the economy cracks, buying the 10-year and 2-year at these yields is a good entry point. She frames this as a shift of money out of equities over AI build-out and capex concerns into Treasuries, and says the bond market now offers a better risk-reward than at any point in the cycle. She says the long-term deficit and debt problem is real but not the near-term driver. She notes she bought these bonds and that it has worked out.

  “in the near term, a ten year treasury above 5% was going to give you pretty good yield. And I couldn't imagine a world where the Fed or the Treasury was going to let it at five twenty five or even get up to six for a very long time.”at 8:08

US rates & the Fed

• Bill Dudley · Bloomberg Opinion

  The Fed should not overreact to a small AI-driven equity correction; financial conditions remain accommodative.

  Dudley argues that a relatively small correction should not drive monetary policy. The stock market is still up this year and well up over five years, so the decline is not large relative to what came before. Financial conditions remain quite accommodative. The strong payroll report suggests the economy is still growing strongly, and there is little sign that current interest rates are restraining activity. So the claim that tighter conditions mean the Fed no longer has to tighten does not match the data. The Fed is less inclined to react to every equity wobble, though he warns about waiting too long and failing to tighten in a timely way.

  “it's important not to overreact to a relatively small correction... Financial conditions are still quite accommodative. So people are talking about, oh, the tightening of financial conditions means that the Fed doesn't have to tighten anymore. I don't think that's really borne out by the economic news.”at 16:17

Oil & fuels

• Bill Dudley · Bloomberg Opinion

  Falling oil prices help inflation and boost real incomes, which is positive for growth.

  Dudley points to Brent falling under $100 and WTI under $90. He says this helps the inflation outlook clearly. It is also positive for growth because falling energy prices boost real incomes, which supports spending. He cautions that the outcome of the Iran war is still unknown, so the Fed should look at what is actually happening rather than bet on outcomes.

  “that's good for the inflation outlooks, clearly, but it's also gonna actually be positive for growth because people's real incomes can be boosted as energy prices decline.”at 18:19

US–China AI & chip race

• Leland Miller · China Beige Book

  US export controls relied on chipmakers' assurances that proved false; enforcement must be tightened and CEOs subpoenaed.

  Miller argues that the export control regime has been based for years on assurances from companies such as NVIDIA. There has been very little plugging of loopholes despite documented diversion, smuggling and active Chinese attempts to get advanced chips. He lists assurances that proved false: no evidence of AI chip diversion, the Chinese military would not seek American chips, customers police themselves, and advanced chips sent to China would not affect US customers. The last one is false because limited advanced-chip fab capacity means production for China comes at the expense of American firms. He wants Congress and the administration to question those priors and enforce compliance, with CEOs under subpoena. He also expects the three major export control bills to be a dogfight, but the scandal should make it harder for Congress to ignore the issue.

  “Mostly based on the assurances of companies like NVIDIA for years. There has been very little plugging of loopholes, even as you've seen diversion, you've seen smuggling, and you've seen, now very active attempts to get hold of this advanced technology.”at 22:31

US–China relations

• Leland Miller · China Beige Book

  January 10 likely a showdown as China falls short on Busan trade commitments like rare earths and farm purchases.

  Miller thinks the November meeting between Xi and Trump will not be the fraught one. The January 10 date looks more likely to be a showdown. The two-month truce was short because China is not adhering to the Busan agreements. Beijing is not providing the promised critical minerals and rare earth magnets and is not making most of the promised agricultural purchases. He says Beijing believes it has enough leverage to turn a cold shoulder and not worry, while Washington is angry and friction is rising. He calls China's behavior very provocative.

  “I think the January 10 is setting up to be a showdown... They're not providing the critical minerals and rare earth magnets they promised, and they're not doing the purchases on the agriculture side”at 25:40