Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 10th, 2026

Anthropic

Across the shows: 107 speakers in other episodes, 141 bullish and 89 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Cameron Dawson · NewEdge WealthUncertain

  Anthropic's IPO matters because its revenue growth drives hyperscaler cloud and semiconductor earnings.

  Dawson sees the Anthropic IPO as important in two ways. First, it shapes overall sentiment and whether the AI trade keeps being accepted. Second, Anthropic's revenue growth, and the cost of serving it, effectively drives hyperscaler cloud revenue, which drives earnings growth at semiconductor companies. Questioning Anthropic's revenue projections therefore means questioning hyperscaler cloud projections and then semiconductor earnings for 2027. He also notes the IPO price range was cut from a top of $80 to $78 per share, with the valuation still high despite $33 billion of revenue in the first nine months.

  “anthropic is important for overall sentiment and the acceptance and the continuation of the AI trade. But then we have to think of it from the perspective of its ability to continue to drive earnings for hyperscalers”at 3:35

US rates & the Fed

• Cameron Dawson · NewEdge Wealth

  Fed tightening financial conditions implies continued equity volatility and underperformance of recent IPOs.

  Tighter financial conditions mean higher equity volatility, lower valuations and wider credit spreads, none of which support a healthy IPO market. If the Fed says it needs financial conditions to tighten to bring inflation back to 2%, Dawson expects continued volatility and continued underperformance of recently IPO'd names, which he says has already been seen.

  “tightening financial conditions implies higher equity volatility, lower equity valuations, wider credit spreads, all things that typically are not very amenable to a healthy IPO market.”at 6:31

• Cameron Dawson · NewEdge Wealth

  Hotter wage growth at 3.1% means the Fed has more work to do if prices feed into pay.

  The Fed can look through successive supply shocks only if they have not spread into the broader economy. Overall wage growth has stayed below inflation, which supports that view. But wages came in at 3.1% versus 2.9% expected in last week's payrolls. Wages lag, so if recent price increases start to filter into pay, the Fed has more work to do.

  “wages did come in a little bit hotter than expected at 3.1%. The street was expecting 2.9. Remember, wages are lagging. So if we start to see an environment where the recent price increases start to filter into wages”at 8:10

• Tiffany Wilding · PIMCO

  Fed should reverse last year's cuts with a possible 50bp hike; policy is not behind the curve as in 2022.

  Chris Waller's remarks put a 50 basis point hike on the table, and the Fed will discuss it. Wilding thinks some recalibration makes sense, reversing last year's cuts and possibly hiking a total of about three times. Using the Fed's own Taylor rules, policy does not look behind the curve as it did in 2022, so the Fed can watch how financial conditions react. Markets already price a couple more hikes, which she sees as the minimum the Fed wants to deliver so financial conditions do not ease unintentionally, given that inflation is broadening and becoming more persistent.

  “taking those back, hiking, you know, maybe a total of three times. Here, see what happens, see how financial conditions are reacting”at 19:30

US stock market outlook

• Cameron Dawson · NewEdge Wealth

  Market has room for a relief rally: positioning is depleted and valuations are down 30% year over year.

  Investor positioning has fallen to the 20th percentile in the Deutsche Bank consolidated positioning survey, which Dawson reads as people exiting the market rather than rotating within it. Seasonality typically pulls markets higher, so sidelined investors may have to chase. Valuations are down about 30% year over year, so the market does not need multiples to return to prior highs for a relief rally, only a slight improvement in sentiment.

  “the biggest support for this market is the fact that people have lost faith in the market. The fact that if you look at positioning, it's fallen now to the twentieth percentile”at 2:32

AI chips & semiconductors

• Cameron Dawson · NewEdge Wealth

  Chip valuations imply earnings peak in 2027 or early 2028, contradicting sell-side growth forecasts.

  Semiconductor stocks trade at about 14.5 times earnings, close to the multiple at which earnings peaked in 2018 and 2022. Chips are up about 120% this year and expected to grow another 50% next year. The lowest valuation is sitting on the highest earnings, so the market is pricing a higher probability that 2027 or early 2028 is the earnings peak. Sell-side estimates show earnings growing into 2027, 2028 and 2029, so valuations and estimates cannot both be right.

  “You're trading at about 14 and a half times earnings. 14 times is where we peaked in earnings back in 2018 and 2022.”at 4:23

Middle East & Iran

• Amrita Sen · Energy Aspects

  Iran deal stalled on frozen funds and enrichment; markets have priced out geopolitical risk too far.

  Immediate escalation risk has eased, but the status quo has not changed. The market had started pricing in a definitive deal, and that has not shifted. The impasse centres on Iran's demands over frozen funds and nuclear enrichment, which the US will not accept. Freight remains very high, ship-to-ship transfers continue, and attacks on ships continue. Sen says markets have effectively erased geopolitical risk, since options had priced an imminent strike before it failed to happen. Because both parties' domestic politics now lean toward not continuing the war, she thinks a stalemate can last longer.

  “I do feel the market had started to price in a definitive deal. That hasn't shifted. And the impasse is really around... There are demands that Iran has made, particularly around frozen funds”at 12:24

Oil & fuels

• Amrita Sen · Energy Aspects

  Diesel stays tight and gasoline stocks are building, setting up a tight summer next year.

  The fall in US pump prices below $4 a gallon is largely seasonal, because winter gasoline has a different spec from summer gasoline and gasoline stocks always build at this time of year. Diesel tightness has pushed refineries to run as hard as possible, and most of them produce more gasoline, which is why gasoline stocks are building. Sen's winter outlook is bearish for gasoline. The concern is that stocks are not being stored for the summer, and diesel tightness is not expected to ease, so the market may be tight next summer.

  “Our winter outlook is pretty bearish for gasoline. The problem we are... We have is we are storing up potentially a very tight summer next year”at 14:45

US growth & recession risk

• Tiffany Wilding · PIMCO

  US domestic demand is strong, above 3% in Q3, but likely to cool into early next year.

  Third-quarter final domestic demand growth in the US was above 3%, which Wilding calls quite strong. Combined with sticky inflation, this strong demand means the Fed will want to react. She expects demand to cool coming into the fourth quarter and early next year, which is why the Fed has room to wait and watch incoming data.

  “if you look at third quarter, you know, final domestic demand growth, United States, you know, above 3%, again, quite strong. We think that probably cools coming into the fourth quarter and early next year”at 22:21