More Tech Trouble Ahead? 11/6/26

Micron Technology

Across the shows: 23 speakers in other episodes, 26 bullish and 11 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jenny Harrington · Gilman Hill Asset ManagementBearish

  Micron's sell-off hasn't gone far enough, and its future earnings growth is unknowable.

  Harrington argues the chip sell-off has not gone far enough, drawing on her experience of the dot-com bust. Micron's down move needs a much larger rebound to recover, and yesterday's gain was not reassuring. Nobody can say what its earnings growth will be in 2027, 2028 or 2029, so the reasonable multiple reflects skepticism about future growth.

  “But it's my sense that it hasn't gone far enough... But then what is Micron's earnings growth rate in 2027, 2028, and 2029 for sure? And no one can answer that right now.”at 18:20

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  Micron is cheap at about 4x next year's earnings, with no debt and a large buyback.

  Micron has no debt on its balance sheet and generates large free cash flow, which Lebenthal says is unlike past cycles. It plans a $100 billion buyback against a market cap that has fallen to about $750 billion. At roughly four times next year's earnings, he is comfortable even though questions remain about its growth rate.

  “There's no debt on Micron's balance sheet... They're generating gobs of free cash flow. Yes, Jenny. There are questions about the growth rate... But at so literally four times next year's earnings, I'm okay with it.”at 20:09

• Kevin Simpson · Capital Wealth PlanningBearish

  Micron may be sold out through 2028, but its peak sales are probably already here.

  Simpson says the Micron conversation was valid and that the company may be sold out through 2028. He disagrees with the idea that demand holds into 2029, judging that the peak in sales is probably here. This is a view on the cycle rather than on near-term demand.

  “Maybe they're sold out through '28. But, Jenny, you mentioned '29. I think that that peak in sales is probably here.”at 25:37

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 77 speakers in other episodes, 71 bullish and 28 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  Nvidia at about 14x forward earnings prices in far too much negativity after the chip sell-off.

  Nvidia trades at roughly 14 times forward earnings, possibly lower. Lebenthal accepts that earnings may have to come down over the next couple of years because of a slowdown in the AI build-out. He still argues the multiple reflects sentiment that is far too negative, so the stock is cheap even after the sell-off.

  “these valuations now we're looking at Nvidia, I believe 14 times forward earnings... these are multiples that are now expressing sentiment that is simply, in my opinion... Far too negative.”at 5:34

• Kevin Simpson · Capital Wealth PlanningBullish

  Still a believer and owns Nvidia, but expects peak sales may be near and post-earnings reaction to be less certain.

  Simpson still thinks Nvidia is cheap and owns it. He has lowered expectations because data center buildouts may be 10% to 15% smaller, which changes the economics for every company in the trade. Nvidia's sales peak may be near, and he is not sure the stock will avoid the post-earnings selling it has suffered in past quarters.

  “So I'm still a believer in NVIDIA. I still think it's cheap. We own it. But I'm not sure that it's gonna have the same problems post earnings that it's had previously.”at 25:22

Amazon.com

Across the shows: 42 speakers in other episodes, 56 bullish and 10 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  Amazon is a buy: AI demand and pricing show no slowdown, and AWS is heading toward half of revenue.

  Lebenthal is adding to Amazon, which he describes as a reflection of no sign of a slowdown in AI demand or pricing. He points to AWS and its Trainium training chips, and expects AWS to grow to about 50% of revenue. He sees the current pullback as consolidation, not the beginning of the end. He also notes that the consumer business gets little attention.

  “there is no sign yet of a slowdown. Not a slowdown in demand, not a slowdown in pricing. I'm talking obviously about AI trade, Amazon with its web services, with its training chips, etcetera, leaning into it.”at 27:14

• Kevin Simpson · Capital Wealth PlanningBullish

  Amazon has a strong balance sheet, so it is insulated from stress in credit markets.

  Simpson says that whatever is happening under the surface of credit markets, Amazon has a strong balance sheet. The implication is that Amazon is well placed to weather the credit stress he is describing. He gives no further numbers or detail.

  “Regardless of what's happening under the surface of the credit markets, Amazon, they have a strong balance sheet.”at 46:37

Space Exploration Technologies

Across the shows: 50 speakers in other episodes, 72 bullish and 24 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Kevin Simpson · Capital Wealth PlanningBullish

  SpaceX is a long-term holding for robotics, space and Starlink; he will add on volatility.

  Simpson's growth portfolio owns SpaceX for robotics, space and Starlink over the long run, not for today's numbers. He says it is very volatile and polarizing, and he has bought at $1.20 and $1.50. He will probably keep adding on volatility.

  “In our growth portfolio, we believe in SpaceX. We believe in Tesla. We own this, and we're gonna own it for a very long time.”at 33:28

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  SpaceX is a stock he'd like to own, justified by out-year multiples, but he will wait for the merger.

  Lebenthal loves what SpaceX does and says he can justify the stock on out-year multiples. He is uncertain how it will trade once the merger is announced, and he is unsure how antitrust review will go. He prefers to wait for the announcement and see how the stock trades before buying.

  “This is the sort of stock I would like to own. I love what they do. I think it's really cool what they do. I can easily justify it by out years multiples.”at 35:15

Oracle

Across the shows: 39 speakers in other episodes, 9 bullish and 36 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBearish

  Microsoft winding down Oracle compute deal is bad news; Oracle's backlog depends heavily on OpenAI.

  Lebenthal says there is nothing to like in the report that Microsoft is winding down its arrangement to rent AI capacity from Oracle, and he won't try to explain away bad news. The key issue is that half of Oracle's remaining performance obligations are tied to OpenAI, so he watches OpenAI's fundraising, which has already been cut from $30 billion to $20 billion. He wants Oracle to be more visible before its mid-December report to clarify what the news means. He says he has some ownership in the stock.

  “I've got some ownership here... Nothing to like about that news headline.”at 43:07

• Brian Belski · Humilis Investment StrategiesBearish

  Oracle's reported Microsoft capacity pullback is a bad sign with bigger repercussions if confirmed.

  Belsky says he doesn't like the news at all and expects Oracle to be more visible about what is happening. He thinks the repercussions are much bigger if the report is real, and links it to last week's point that the cost of capital is changing. He points to Neo Cloud funding disappearing and says pressure at the margins among interdependent companies can lead to something insidious, so he expects a bigger percentage of business to go away.

  “I just don't like this news at all... I think this has a lot bigger repercussions if it's real.”at 43:40

Quanta Services

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  Quanta is a buy: data center demand exceeds supply, and the selloff is overdone, not a bubble.

  Lebenthal bought Quanta and argues that holding it means believing the data center trade continues. Azure revenue growth above 40% and Google Cloud growth above 100% show demand exceeding supply, and power supply is the critical bottleneck. A bubble means building without demand, which he says is not happening. Quanta is not cheap at a mid-twenties multiple, but it is off about 33% from its high.

  “What I look at, and I think if you're buying quanta, you have to believe that the data center trade is going to continue, and that frankly, it's not a bubble.”at 14:38

Nebius Group

Across the shows: 5 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 6 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Brian Belski · Humilis Investment StrategiesBullish

  Nebius is a holdable mid-cap: customers prepay much of its capex and its debt is far below CoreWeave's.

  Belsky says 50 to 60% of Nebius's capex is prepaid by existing customers, and he cites roughly $10 billion of debt for Nebius against about $50 billion for CoreWeave. He calls Nebius a small mid-cap name the fund wants to play. The firm holds 50 basis points, compared with 700 basis points in Nvidia, and he argues neoclouds are small relative to the rest of the market.

  “50 to 60% of their CapEx is prepaid by their existing customers. They have $10,000,000,000 of debt. Core Weave has $50,000,000,000 of debt.”at 20:50

Tripadvisor

• Jenny Harrington · Gilman Hill Asset ManagementBearish

  Agentic AI broke TripAdvisor's thesis, so she sold; the stock is a bearish AI casualty.

  Harrington bought TripAdvisor near $14 for its travel-booking leadership and cash flow. Agentic AI then pummeled the shares because people book travel differently, which fundamentally changed the thesis. She sold around $10 ahead of a quarter that missed on revenue and earnings and brought a new CEO, with the stock falling about 28%.

  “But then what happened was Agentic AI crept in, and that really started to pummel the shares. And that was really the thesis for us saying, hey, this doesn't make sense for us anymore.”at 31:28

Tesla

Across the shows: 29 speakers in other episodes, 35 bullish and 23 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Kevin Simpson · Capital Wealth PlanningBullish

  Tesla is a long-term hold for robotaxis and robotics; Cybertruck wind-down is not a big deal.

  Simpson's growth portfolio owns Tesla for the robotaxi years ahead, not for current production. Winding down the Cybertruck is not a big deal if it makes room for more robotaxis. He calls the stock volatile and polarizing and expects a rodeo for a long time, but he likes it and plans to hold.

  “In our growth portfolio, we believe in SpaceX. We believe in Tesla. We own this, and we're gonna own it for a very long time.”at 33:28

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity Partners

  State-level slowdown of data center buildout is likely but not a stop, and it is a positive for the sector.

  New Democratic governors and state legislatures will slow the AI data center buildout. Stopping it entirely is unlikely because that would tip the US economy into recession, cause large job losses and erode the tax bases of the politicians themselves. A slowdown cures the prisoner's dilemma hyperscalers have been in, where none wants to be first to cut capex. Lebenthal calls that a positive.

  “And they will slow it down. I think it's highly unlikely that they're going to stop it... which frankly cures the prisoner's dilemma that many of these hyperscalers have been in for many months.”at 3:03

• Jenny Harrington · Gilman Hill Asset Management

  There may be no AI bubble, but there may be a data center bubble from overbuilding.

  Harrington cites Microchip CEO Steve Sanghi, who twice said on the earnings call that data centers are in a bubble, carefully avoiding saying AI. She thinks there may be too much data center build-out, even if AI demand is real. She has more confidence in the big-cap platforms than in smaller names.

  “maybe there's not an AI bubble, but maybe there's a data center bubble. And one of the companies in my portfolio is Microchip... Steve Sanghi, the CEO, said twice on the call, I think data centers are in a bubble.”at 13:13

• Brian Belski · Humilis Investment Strategies

  Selling every data center name indiscriminately is a mistake; buy the best operators like Quanta.

  Belsky says yesterday's market made a binary call: sell anything tied to data centers. He thinks that is a mistake when markets sell indiscriminately, and that after the washout investors should buy the best stocks and operations. He cites Quanta as the best operation, though it has exposure to Colorado and Texas where decisions are not yet made.

  “the market made it for you yesterday, making a binary decision, sell anything related to data centers, and I think that's a mistake when markets do that.”at 17:48

US stock market outlook

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity Partners

  Strong jobs, growth and profits should push markets higher after a week or two of post-election deleveraging volatility.

  Lebenthal points to a strong labor market, strong economic growth and strong profit growth as fundamentals that should lift stocks. He expects this after a week or two of volatility from the post-election deleveraging, while noting the deleveraging itself is not necessarily over.

  “the positives of strong labor market, strong economic growth, strong profit growth are likely to propel the markets higher after we get through a week or two of this post election, post delevering volatility.”at 3:03

• Brian Belski · Humilis Investment Strategies

  Market is nearing a washout, and Friday could still close negative given weak downside volume.

  Belsky looks at volume. Downside volume was about five to one, while these types of days usually need eight or ten to one to signal a true capitulation. He thinks the market could still turn negative on Friday, though he says he doesn't want that. He still believes the market is closer to a washout, consistent with Mike Wilson's view of a final clearing event.

  “downside volume was five to one. Usually, on these types of days, you need, an eight or 10 to one... I would not be surprised, quite frankly, if the market turns negative on a Friday. I don't want it to... but I think we're closer to the washout.”at 7:27

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity Partners

  Forced unwinding by levered long/short hedge funds drove yesterday's selloff, not weaker fundamentals.

  Highly levered long/short hedge funds, which were down big in October and into November, unwound positions, causing a deluge of selling. Some funds shut pods or whole firms. Lebenthal says this deleveraging contributed a lot to yesterday's drop, though he does not say it is over.

  “The deleveraging that was going on, particularly in the highly levered long short hedge fund space. And yesterday, the truth came out and it was ugly.”at 3:03

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Kevin Simpson · Capital Wealth Planning

  Mega-cap AI leaders are cash-rich and far sturdier than the 1999 bubble companies; not a house of cards.

  Simpson says he has more confidence in today's big companies than he had in any company in the late nineties. They are so cash-flow rich that they can fund anything in the capital markets, and they can absorb policy shocks from Washington or states. The speculative, smaller and more fragile names are the ones with more room to fall.

  “And I think that the confidence that I have in the big companies is far greater than anything I had in any company in the late nineties. They're so cash flow rich that they can support anything in the capital markets.”at 11:11

Credit markets

• Kevin Simpson · Capital Wealth Planning

  Credit worthiness, not rates, is the cost-of-capital driver; the credit market will move stocks, not the reverse.

  Simpson argues that the cost of capital is not about interest rates but about creditworthiness. He cites pressure at the margins among interdependent companies, and points to Neo Cloud funding disappearing and the need for Microsoft-style interventions to get deals done. From that he predicts the next move in the market won't be dictated by the stock market but by the credit market.

  “It's not interest rates. It's credit worthiness... The next move of this market isn't gonna be dictated by the stock market. Mark my words. It'll be the credit market that moves the market.”at 44:05