Speaker · Updated

Kevin Simpson: latest market views

Capital Wealth Planning

Summary

Kevin Simpson is the founder and CEO of Capital Wealth Planning, a wealth management firm, and a regular member of CNBC's Halftime Report Investment Committee.

Chorus has 9 views from Kevin Simpson across 2 episodes on CNBC Halftime Report since October 20, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Booking Holdings, Microsoft, CME Group and Lowe's Companies; bearish on Space Exploration Technologies.

Where they stand

Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.

  • Booking HoldingsBullish ·
  • MicrosoftBullish ·
  • CME GroupBullish ·
  • Lowe's CompaniesBullish ·
  • Space Exploration TechnologiesBearish ·
  • Spotify TechnologyBullish ·
  • The Home DepotBullish ·
  • UnitedHealth GroupBullish ·

What they talk about most

The latest views

Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.

  • MicrosoftBullish

    Microsoft's report is strong and Azure is great, but free cash flow fell and expectations are high.

    Simpson says the CapEx delay of about $5 billion is not that imperative in the scheme of things, though it sounds like a big number. Free cash flow was down, and he notes that. He says management is saying all the right things and he is thrilled with the report, looking at the Azure number. He adds that Azure growth sets the bar high for what AWS must deliver the next night.

    “that CapEx delay was only 5,000,000,000... But free cash flow was down. ... They're saying all the right things, and I'm thrilled with the report.”at 19:52

    CNBC Halftime Report: Tech Earnings Weigh on the AI Trade 10/29/26 ·

  • Booking HoldingsBullish

    Booking Holdings is oversold on AI disintermediation fears; a cheap starter buy.

    Simpson says Booking has been destroyed by the disintermediation trade, as AI agents could route travel around the company. He sees an opportunity. He looks at the stock fundamentally: 17 times trailing and about 13.5 times forward earnings, with a dividend increase and management buying back shares. He asks whether the company could be disintermediated and says it is possible for any of these names, but he thinks the market is throwing out the baby with the bathwater, because Booking is integrating AI to absorb agent traffic. He has a starter position and reports earnings next week, so he would not follow him in a big way.

    “I think [Booking Holdings] has been destroyed and with this disintermediation play with AI, and I think there's an opportunity here.”at 27:53

    CNBC Halftime Report: Tech Earnings Weigh on the AI Trade 10/29/26 ·

  • AI: overall outlook

    AI earnings will be powerful in 2027, with a split between profitable AI firms and leveraged borrowers.

    He believes Jim's thesis that AI-driven earnings peak in 2028 is believable, as long as the economy stays decent, with 2027 remaining very strong for AI and technology. He expects a bifurcation between very profitable AI businesses and companies that borrowed and rely on the AI revolution. Last week there was a repricing of that second group, which he calls a reality check. He is only about 25% in tech and wants broadening, but people will always pay up for innovation, so he will not abandon the tech trade.

    “I think '27 is gonna have tremendously powerful earnings for AI and for technology... there will definitely be a bifurcation, haves and have nots.”at 9:11

    CNBC Halftime Report: The Bull Market Backdrop in Question: The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/20/26 ·

  • UnitedHealth GroupBullish

    UnitedHealth is improving after earnings; the firm added to its position again.

    The firm has added to UnitedHealth three times in the past month after emptying it last year. Last week's earnings validated re-entry: earnings rose, Medicare ratios improved, and the full-year guide was raised. Problems are not all in the rearview mirror, but he only needs improvement. The firm owned the stock for more than ten years and hopes that will repeat, and says it is trending in the right direction.

    “We added to UnitedHealthcare again... Their earnings were up. The Medicare ratios were up. Their guide for full year was up.”at 20:36

    CNBC Halftime Report: The Bull Market Backdrop in Question: The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/20/26 ·

  • Lowe's CompaniesBullish

    Lowe's housing refresh cycle is a 2028 story; hold for the replacement wave.

    Kevin argues that the housing super cycle is a home-refresh cycle. During COVID people refreshed their homes, and six to eight years later they need to do it again. That cycle would benefit Lowe's as well as Home Depot, and he says holders should expect a 2028 story, not 2027, even if rates do not fall.

    “...there's a super cycle that takes place in housing... So I'd say if you're holding on to Home Depot or Lowe's, it's not a 2027 story, but 2028.”at 27:51

    CNBC Halftime Report: The Bull Market Backdrop in Question: The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/20/26 ·

  • The Home DepotBullish

    Home Depot's housing refresh cycle is a 2028 story; hold for the replacement wave.

    Home Depot is an inverse play on rates, and he hopes Jim is wrong and rates come down. Even if they do not, housing has a super cycle: during COVID people refreshed walls, floors and appliances, and six to eight years later they need to do it again. So for Home Depot or Lowe's holders, the payoff is a 2028 story, not a 2027 one.

    “...there's a super cycle that takes place in housing... So I'd say if you're holding on to Home Depot or Lowe's, it's not a 2027 story, but 2028.”at 27:51

    CNBC Halftime Report: The Bull Market Backdrop in Question: The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/20/26 ·

  • Spotify TechnologyBullish

    Spotify is a global audio alternative to Netflix with runway; the stock should move higher.

    He says the firm has long liked Spotify as an alternative to Netflix in audio streaming. It is a much more global company with a lot of runway left. He is surprised the stock has stalled as much as it has and does see it moving higher. He thinks Morgan Stanley's $640 target might be a bit extreme.

    “I think we've always liked this name as an alternative to Netflix in the streaming space for audio. They're much more global company. There's still a lot of runway here.”at 30:18

    CNBC Halftime Report: The Bull Market Backdrop in Question: The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/20/26 ·

  • Space Exploration TechnologiesBearish

    SpaceX's post-IPO story needs monetization proof not coming this quarter; he owns it but not for 2026.

    Simpson says the options market is pricing the report correctly, with only a tepid move after the report. The August enthusiasm came from the first earnings report, which he says is not a repeatable catalyst. He argues SpaceX, like many recent listings, must prove it can monetise its story, and that this will not happen in the current quarter. He holds the stock but does not expect it to work in 2026.

    “Scott, we own SpaceX, but not for 2026. ... They need to prove monetization, and they're not gonna be doing it this quarter.”at 39:02

    CNBC Halftime Report: The Bull Market Backdrop in Question: The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/20/26 ·

  • CME GroupBullish

    CME should benefit from rising volatility and new product launches over the next two quarters.

    Simpson argues CME's trading revenue depends on volatility. If volatility rises into year-end and early next year, trading will increase. He points to a wider product set, including daily expirations and single-hour expirations, as further drivers. He does not think it must be bought before earnings but calls it a good name for the next two quarters.

    “CME Group is gonna trade on volatility. If we see more volatility heading into the end of the year and into the first quarter of next year, it's gonna translate to more trading. There's a lot more products, daily expiration, single hour expiration”at 42:57

    CNBC Halftime Report: The Bull Market Backdrop in Question: The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/20/26 ·

Shows

Ask your AI what Kevin Simpson thinks

Chorus gives Claude, ChatGPT and other assistants every view Kevin Simpson has shared on the shows it covers, next to everyone else's. Ask where they stand, what changed, and who disagrees.

Setup guide

Chorus reports what speakers said. It isn't investment advice.