Rate Drop Helps Fuel Bounces… And Apple And Meta’s AI Partnership 10/15/26

Walmart

Across the shows: 5 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Guy Adami · CNBCBullish

  Walmart's AI push is margin accretive, and the upgrade shows it; he says to be long.

  Guy says valuation weighed on Walmart over the last few months, along with margin worries. He argues Walmart's AI work is margin accretive, and the Deutsche Bank upgrade speaks to that. Trading poorly and then well today, he thinks investors should be long Walmart.

  “if you look at what they're doing in AI, I believe it's actually margin accretive, and I think this call speaks to that... I think you gotta be long Walmart.”at 24:36

• Karen Finerman · Metropolitan Capital AdvisorsNeutral

  Walmart has pricing power, but at 40-plus times earnings it is too expensive to buy here.

  Karen is long Walmart and agrees the cost-side story is good. Its scale gives pricing power almost no one else has, other than Amazon. She is concerned about valuation, since at over 40 times earnings the stock is expensive. Higher rates lower the valuation of all equities, so she would not add at this level.

  “I am a long Walmart... Even if things are really going well for them at 40 plus times, that's expensive. And if rates are higher... So I wouldn't buy it on this.”at 25:01

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Walmart is a defensive safe-harbor stock; valuation is priced in, but he is long.

  Tim says valuation has been the story for a year and a half, and the rally came despite a 35-plus multiple. Technology investment and digital footprint drove the re-rating from about 15 times to 35 times over five to ten years. He thinks a lot is priced in, but Walmart is a safe harbor that should be defensive in this environment. That explains its recent outperformance.

  “I think a lot's in the price. I am long Walmart. I think this is a safe harbor type of a stock, and I do think in the current environment, it will be defensive.”at 25:51

• Savita Subramanian · BofA SecuritiesBullish

  Walmart is a core holding that benefits as shoppers trade down to value from higher earners.

  Savita sees a trade down from higher earners, including people losing jobs to AI, toward value providers. Walmart shines in that shift. She points to her own store choices and to more competition in the value channel, including Walmart, as evidence of the trend. She calls Walmart a core holding.

  “I think Walmart is a really interesting story... as a value provider, we're seeing a trade down from that, you know, 100 k in higher earners, the folks who are losing their jobs to AI. I think that's where it really shines”at 26:17

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 25 speakers in other episodes, 26 bullish and 6 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bullish

  Apple–Meta tie-up is the first of many; Muse integration accelerates over 12-18 months.

  Ives says Apple and Meta need each other, and the Anthropic-OpenAI rivalry pushes the two stalwarts together. The integration on hardware, centered on Meta's Muse technology, should accelerate over the next twelve to eighteen months. He argues Apple is betting significantly on Meta because Muse is a game-changing AI technology, and the partnership is the start of a larger collaboration.

  “the integration on the hardware, what we see with Muse, I think that's something that we're going to see accelerate over the next twelve to eighteen months, because they both need each other”at 33:16

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Meta is ahead of peers in AI, with agentic access for every Instagram user that no one else has done.

  Seymour says Meta was counted out before the recent news, but he credits it with keeping much under wraps and then unveiling it to get ahead of peers. He cites its ability to monetize AI and its real agentic access for every person on Instagram, which he says no one else had done yet. He treats this as a reason to be positive on Meta despite its earlier fits and starts.

  “Their ability to monetize on AI and in this case being way out front for... With real agentic access for the every person on Instagram is something that no one had done yet.”at 39:02

Apple

Across the shows: 22 speakers in other episodes, 10 bullish and 7 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bullish

  Apple's installed base makes it the AI toll collector; AI monetization adds about $75 per share.

  Ives says Apple has about 1.5 billion iPhones and 2.5 billion iOS devices, the golden installed base, so it will be the toll collector on the consumer AI highway. He estimates 20% of consumers globally will access AI through an Apple device. He builds the $75 per share estimate by assuming 15% of incremental services revenue will be AI driven, which he says the Street underestimates by about 15% over the coming years, with developers as the platform.

  “That's the golden installed base... We estimate 20% of consumers around the world will ultimately access AI through an Apple device. That's what the market's seeing. Combined with Ternus, we think $75 per share incremental is what AI and monetization adds to the Apple story.”at 35:07

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Apple is a reason to own given its 2.5 billion iOS install base; legacy platforms will lead AI.

  Seymour argues legacy players ultimately have the footprint and breadth to keep them in the driver's seat in AI, and that they shouldn't be left. He points to Apple's roughly two and a half billion iOS devices as the reason to own the stock. The argument rests on distribution reach rather than a specific AI product.

  “So, if we love two and a half billion iOS on Apple and that's a reason to own it... the legacy players ultimately have the footprint and have the breadth that will keep them all in the driver's seat.”at 39:38

Tesla

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 0 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Phil LeBeau · CNBCUncertain

  Tesla's flat year reflects a possible SpaceX merger; AI, robotics and other synergies could come from one roof.

  LeBeau cites Barclays saying a Tesla-SpaceX merger has become the consensus expectation. He says that is why Tesla shares haven't done much this year, since people want to know whether the merger happens. He sees AI as the clearest reason for the two companies to be combined, alongside robotics and other areas. He stops short of saying whether the combination would help or hurt Tesla.

  “But AI is really where you see the potential for Tesla being folded into SpaceX and the opportunities that could be unfolding between the two companies being under one roof, not only AI, robotics, just a whole host of areas.”at 42:47

• Guy Adami · CNBCBullish

  Tesla is a tracking stock for SpaceX; if you're bullish SpaceX, buy Tesla as a tail trade.

  Adami says the question is whether you're bullish on SpaceX, because buying Tesla is how you express that view. He says it's no longer clearly about Tesla itself and that the stock now tracks SpaceX. He calls Tesla the tail trade if SpaceX goes higher and says to think of it as a space tracking stock.

  “If you're bullish in SpaceX, you buy Tesla. ... I don't even know if it's about Tesla anymore as much as about SpaceX. If you think that's going higher, you buy Tesla as sort of the tail trade.”at 43:33

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 19 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 19 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bullish

  CoreWeave's backlog is tremendous and the sell-off is an overreaction; buy the dip.

  Ives acknowledges financing is a risk factor and some pressure is coming. He argues the demand story matters more, pointing to strong hyperscaler earnings and the tremendous backlog CoreWeave has built. He views the selloff as similar to the SaaS apocalypse fears and thinks the market overreacted, making the sell-off a buying opportunity.

  “the backlog that core[Weave] we've seen is just tremendous... There's gonna be pressure, but I do think the market's way overreacted here.”at 36:23

Nebius Group

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bullish

  Nebius is a buying opportunity after the AI neocloud sell-off, which he views as overdone.

  Ives compares the neocloud selloff to SaaS apocalypse fears and calls it overdone. He says these are buying opportunities for names like Nebius and CoreWeave, along with others across tech. He ties the view to the same demand and backlog argument he gives for CoreWeave, though he does not give Nebius-specific numbers.

  “I just think these are buying opportunities for some of these names when you look at Nebius, [CoreWeave], even some of the others across tech.”at 36:35

Alphabet

Across the shows: 14 speakers in other episodes, 15 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Guy Adami · CNBCBullish

  Google is the place to be; likely to announce an Apple-like AI partnership, with earnings on the 27th.

  Google's stock is about a month behind Meta's pattern. It hit an all-time high around May and hasn't traded well since. Apple looked very similar until the Apple-Meta AI partnership news about a month ago. Adami expects Google to make a similar announcement at some point, and it reports earnings on the 27th. He concludes Google is the place to be on the back of the AI partnership story.

  “I think Google is going to come out with a similar type of announcement at some point. They report earnings on the twenty seventh... and I think Google is the place to be on the back of all that we just talked about.”at 37:49

Microsoft

Across the shows: 11 speakers in other episodes, 8 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Microsoft is worth owning; Copilot's consumer growth is rapid and it has reached every household.

  Seymour says the AI story is about Copilot growing rapidly, with the delta in its growth and its consumer footprint in every household. He notes Microsoft has just hit all-time highs and argues it is worth owning. He frames legacy players with footprint and breadth as the ones that will stay in the driver's seat.

  “I mean, to me, this is about copilot rapidly, you know, the delta on their growth and where Microsoft is at least on the consumer basis in every household. ... Microsoft, which has just hit all time highs, I think is also worth owning.”at 39:35

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  AI capacity will lag demand next year because funding is the constraint and cost of capital is rising.

  Tim reads a UBS note showing a gap between AI demand and the capacity delivered next year. He says that capacity is held hostage by the ability to fund it, and expects that to bind across hyperscalers, which are expected to spend heavily next year. He argues the cost of capital is going higher, not lower, so funding gets harder. Long-term take-or-pay contracts may not be as solid as they look.

  “I think the easiest thing to see in the future is demand remains very strong, capacity to fulfill it, not so good, and that there is this gap... ultimately, it is held hostage by the ability to fund.”at 11:51

• Steve Liesman · CNBC

  Investor focus is on the cost of debt funding the AI build-out, not on near-term solvency.

  Liesman says the core issue is the cost of debt for the AI build-out, and the market is focused on it. He thinks the CoreWeave and CVS issues that faded in a day are recurring concerns that companies need to address. Hyperscalers issuing heavy debt means equity is in the first loss position on that debt, which explains why investors gauge equity against debt. He says nobody is claiming that is the case yet.

  “I mean, the whole issue here is the cost of debt for the AI build out. Right? And and that's where the market, I think, is very focused right now.”at 17:20

• Savita Subramanian · BofA Securities

  The AI supply-chain bottleneck is bullish because it stops companies from massively overbuilding capacity.

  Savita sees the AI bottleneck in the supply chain as bullish. The constraint limits how far companies can overbuild capacity. The tradeoff is margin winners and losers, because the bottleneck squeezes some companies' costs more than others.

  “So this whole bottleneck supply chain when it comes to AI, I think that's actually bullish because it prevents these companies from massively overbuilding capacity.”at 21:42

• Savita Subramanian · BofA Securities

  Crowded semis and hyperscalers are risky; equal-weight them and look at less crowded alternatives.

  Subramanian says the question investors ask is what is insulated from AI. She argues the AI space changes so fast that the next better agentic model could upend current leaders. Given that risk and the crowding in semis and hyperscalers, she suggests equal-weighting semis against hyperscalers and looking at less risky, less crowded, more picked-over alternatives.

  “But the question is what happens when the next better agentic model comes out? ... it almost feels like, you know, equal weight the semis versus the hyperscalers and think about what else is going on out there that's a little bit less risky and less crowded.”at 38:42

US Treasuries & yields

• Guy Adami · CNBC

  Rates are going higher; the current TLT bond rally is temporary and partly a flight to quality.

  Guy argues the US is the largest economy in history and recent bond moves are historic. He still believes rates are going higher, but the TLT rally reversal was powerful and can last a little while. He ties part of the rally to a perceived flight to quality as risk assets on the other side of the market weakened.

  “I still believe rates are going higher. I want to be crystal clear, but this TLT rally can last a little bit, and I think part of the rally is on the back of a perceived far flight to perceived quality”at 4:29

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Yields are rising on hot inflation data, which puts the Fed in play and signals slower growth.

  Tim argues the biggest move in rates reflects higher CPI and PPI. That raises the chance the Fed hikes, which brings the front end of the curve into play. He reads the long-end move as the market pricing in slower growth, with the Fed two steps away from a hike and the tech sector's slowdown weighing on GDP.

  “I think the biggest move in interest rates is a function of higher inflation CPI, PPI, which means that the short end of the curve has the Fed more in play, which ultimately means I think the market is just pricing in slower growth.”at 4:47

• Savita Subramanian · BofA Securities

  Rising yields reflect strong nominal growth and capex, not a reason to sell equities.

  Savita thinks the ten-year yield is rising for a good reason: nominal GDP growth and strong capex. Transport tracker data is at record levels, so the economy looks like it is running hot and yields will likely rise further. She does not think that is terrible for equities. Stocks can do okay, though not as well as the past few years of positive surprises.

  “I think it's also rising for a good reason, which is nominal GDP growth, great CapEx... So it feels like things are running too hot, which probably means yields are gonna move higher. But is that really terrible for everything and for equities? Not really.”at 6:43

Earnings & corporate profits

• Savita Subramanian · BofA Securities

  Good news is priced in; earnings growth of about 35% this year cannot repeat next year.

  Savita says the good news is already in the market, and a slowdown in growth is inevitable. Earnings are tracking something like 35% growth this year, and she doubts that can be beaten next year. She is open that it may be possible, but feels the slowdown is coming. She sees more opportunity in areas not yet pricing in AI-driven strength.

  “I feel like the good news is priced in to the market. We inevitably have to see a slowdown in growth... What are we tracking this year? Something like 35% earnings growth... We can't do better than that next year.”at 7:44

• Steve Liesman · CNBC

  Tariffs and AI build-out favor large companies, which are taking share from smaller rivals.

  Liesman says the complexity of tariffs and the AI build-out makes this a time that favors large companies. Small business reports show large companies taking share from smaller ones, which is a source of their growth. He adds that companies with monopoly or duopoly pricing power can do well in inflationary times.

  “Another thing we've seen in these times, if you add the complexity of tariffs to, the AI build out, this is a time that favors large companies.”at 19:16

• Savita Subramanian · BofA Securities

  Consensus expects S&P gross margin expansion next year, which looks hard with inflation and bottlenecks.

  Consensus has every S&P 500 sector forecasting gross margin expansion, which looks hard to achieve with inflation running hot and supply bottlenecks. Savita notes margins have repeatedly surprised to the upside, and productivity is the swing factor. Even Nvidia warns of margin risk. She expects margin winners and losers to emerge next year.

  “I mean, I think that the the swing factor is productivity... every time we think margins are gonna compress, we get burned or wrong, companies somehow magically pull it off. So we really need to see that continue.”at 21:08

Enterprise AI adoption & AI software

• Savita Subramanian · BofA Securities

  AI adopters and cybersecurity look under-priced compared with the crowded AI spend beneficiaries.

  Savita says investors are watching semiconductors and hyperscalers. The sleepier parts of the market, including AI adopters, some AI spend beneficiaries and cybersecurity, are not pricing in the AI story. She thinks those areas could do well in a slow or fast build-out.

  “So AI adopters, some of the beneficiaries of AI spend, cybersecurity, you know, those areas of the market that are a little sleepier and aren't necessarily pricing in all this awesomeness,”at 8:11

• Savita Subramanian · BofA Securities

  AI productivity gains are most visible in healthcare, which the market is largely overlooking.

  Savita argues AI is being put to use in profound ways and productivity is strong. She expected to see AI gains in financials and IT services, but healthcare is where the effect shows most clearly. Her team has been writing on this theme, while attention stays on semiconductors and hyperscalers.

  “We are seeing AI being put to use in really profound ways and productivity is en fuego... Really where we've seen it most acutely is healthcare, and our team has been writing about this”at 30:03

Gold & precious metals

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  After the pullback, gold and miners look attractive as the dollar weakens.

  Tim argues the short end of the curve is in play and central bank policy differentials drive the dollar. That would favor weaker dollar trades. Gold and miners have held up well with a strong dollar, so they should do even better with a weak dollar and pressure on the currency. He sees the pullback as a good time to buy.

  “I think it's a great time to be buying gold after this pullback. I think it's a very interesting time to be buying miners and commodities because I actually think they've held... served tremendously well with a strong dollar.”at 20:35

• Guy Adami · CNBC

  Several reasons to be bullish gold and miners; falling rates, a weaker dollar and central bank buying help.

  Adami says there are a number of reasons to be bullish gold and the miners. He argues that falling rates, which can happen in the short term, a weaker dollar, and central banks repatriating gold would push investors into the miners. He says this is the kind of setup that drove a similar move about a year ago.

  “I do think if rates back off a little bit here, which in the short term they can, if the dollar starts to waver a little bit, and if more and more central banks repatriate their gold, people are gonna flock to these miners”at 44:47

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Hedge fund leverage in Treasuries amplifies bond moves, so small shifts have big effects.

  Tim says hedge funds have become a place to speculate in bonds. The biggest hedge funds and CTAs are heavily levered, and many are trend followers. A small move therefore has a big impact. He cites hedge fund ownership of Treasuries roughly doubling since 2023, and suggests technical and positioning effects may explain part of the recent move in the ten-year.

  “It's been a place to speculate. And if you think about the biggest hedge funds in the world and CTAs, they're heavily levered entities. So a little bit of move has a big impact.”at 9:45

US stock market outlook

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  The move is sector rotation into oversold industrials, transports and staples, not a broad tech collapse.

  Tim says the market was bizarre, and he does not want to read too much into it. He argues industrials, transports and staples were oversold. He sees the moves as rotation, with lower yields giving people an opportunity to allocate into underperforming areas at the start of the fourth quarter. He says it is only a couple of days so far, not a trend.

  “How oversold were we in industrials? How oversold were we in transports and and in in staples... It's rotation, rotation, rotation”at 9:57

US inflation

• Steve Liesman · CNBC

  Wholesale diesel and price pass-through mean consumer inflation pressure is coming in the next months.

  Liesman argues the diesel and wholesale price surge will reach consumers in coming months. Beige Book comments show consumer-facing companies taking margin hits while raising prices and resizing menus. The NFIB survey shows many small firms have raised prices and plan to raise more. He says that pressure, plus hot PPI and core CPI, puts the Fed under pressure and clashes with the idea of a pause.

  “You can't tell me that what's happening on diesel and wholesale prices right now is not in some way gonna make its way down to the consumer in the coming months.”at 15:12

US rates & the Fed

• Steve Liesman · CNBC

  The two-year yield sits about 90-100 bps above the Fed funds rate, so the market sees more Fed tightening.

  Liesman says the two-year yield is a simpler gauge because it reflects the average expected Fed funds rate over two years. That yield still sits roughly 90 to 100 basis points above the current Fed rate. He reads this as the market still seeing the Fed with work to do, even as the ten-year moves for many other reasons.

  “The two year is a little simpler in the sense that it's the average of the Fed funds rate over two years, and that two year still remaining about a 100 bips above where the Fed is.”at 16:29

Nuclear energy

• Guy Adami · CNBC

  Physical uranium is tight with a supply-demand mismatch; spot prices are ticking higher.

  Adami points to spot uranium prices ticking higher and to shortages in physical uranium in the utility space. He describes a real mismatch between supply and demand. This follows reports that hyperscalers are interested in buying physical uranium from Cameco, which he sees as part of the same tightening.

  “Spot uranium prices are ticking higher. I think there are shortages in physical in the utility space. This is a place where there really is a mismatch between supply and demand.”at 44:47

Commodities (broad)

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Loves commodities; a physical squeeze makes this a long-term holding that will be volatile but go higher.

  Seymour argues that when a physical commodity is tight, a squeeze develops, so it's a long-term holding. He acknowledges the price isn't cheap and will be volatile, but says it's going higher. He states he loves commodities as an asset class.

  “especially when you have it, you have it, and it's a squeeze. So this is a long term holding. It's not cheap. It's gonna be volatile, but it's going higher. Do you like commodities here? I love commodities.”at 45:17

Copper & industrial metals

• Savita Subramanian · BofA Securities

  Metals, mining and industrial gases benefit from the AI build-out, yet nobody cares; looks very interesting.

  Subramanian says metals and mining, and even gases, are outside AI but benefit from it because they feed the industrial production behind the AI build-out. She says nobody cares about them right now while everyone focuses on semis and hyperscalers. She adds that we are in the beginnings or middle innings of an industrial capex cycle and that investors should buy the old and new economy stuff.

  “This is outside of AI, but it benefits from AI and nobody cares about it right now. I think materials, metals and mining, even gases, like all the stuff that goes into industrial production build out... Looks super interesting.”at 45:27

International equities

• Savita Subramanian · BofA Securities

  Europe is the ultimate contrarian trade; buy it if oil stops going up.

  Subramanian argues Europe is the ultimate contrarian trade because everybody hates it. She sets a condition tied to oil: if oil does anything besides go up, investors should buy Europe. The view is contrarian positioning with an oil-linked trigger.

  “Listen. I think Europe is the ultimate contrarian trade. Everybody hates it. If oil does anything besides go up, buy Europe.”at 46:21