Closing Bell 10/7/26

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 14 speakers in other episodes, 12 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bullish

  Nvidia is a buy: chip demand far exceeds supply and enterprise AI demand is accelerating.

  Ives says enterprise and government AI demand is accelerating 30 to 40% sequentially, and customers must queue for AI deals that can't be implemented until the end of next year. He cites 13-to-1 demand over supply for chips. On that basis he says he cannot be bearish on Nvidia, Microsoft or Palantir, and argues the Street's numbers are too low.

  “Look. I'd say right now, we're seeing a 30 to 40% acceleration sequentially because it's pretty clear from an enterprise perspective and also on the government side... 13 to one demand supply for chips, which is why from NVIDIA to Microsoft to Palantir and others, I just cannot see being bearish here”at 2:27

Oracle

Across the shows: 5 speakers in other episodes, 0 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bearish

  Oracle is a skeptic's call: its debt-funded buildout and OpenAI exposure justify caution.

  Ives separates Oracle from Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta. He says Oracle is trying to be a hyperscaler and is taking on debt while cutting significant costs to get there. Investors will stay skeptical of its OpenAI and other deals. He says he used to be bullish but the financing checks make him more skeptical. He expects Oracle to get through this.

  “That's why I separate out Oracle a bit, and I used to be bullish on it. Just the checks that come out make me more skeptical.”at 5:23

Microsoft

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bullish

  Microsoft's AI monetization is under-modelled; the stock could reach about $700.

  Ives expects the hyperscalers' monetization phase to start over the next 12 to 18 months, with free cash flow improving as AI revenue comes through. Fewer than 5% of enterprises are deep into strategic AI adoption, which he says leaves roughly $300 billion of incremental Azure revenue missing from consensus. He sees Azure accelerating and argues Microsoft could reach about $700 a share. The transcript's figure is garbled, so the exact price target is uncertain.

  “Less than 5% enterprises have gone truly down the strategic AI path... there's probably [$300 billion] incremental revenue for Azure that's not being accounted for in numbers... that could be a 6, ultimately, $700 stock in the market.”at 6:20

Space Exploration Technologies

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 4 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bullish

  SpaceX is more than a hyperscaler; over 80% chance it merges with Tesla by end of next year.

  Ives argues SpaceX is not just the next hyperscaler and backs its $40 billion debt raise to fund Nvidia chip buildouts as the smart strategic move. He puts over an 80% chance on SpaceX merging with Tesla by the end of next year. The transcript attributes this line to the host, but the content matches Ives's answer.

  “Over an 80% chance by the end of next year that they ultimately walk down the aisle and merge with Tesla.”at 9:08

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Oliver Renick · CNBCBullish

  Bond selloff may be bottoming; call-heavy TLT options flow points to a turnaround in yields.

  Renick says the unrelenting bond selloff may be near a bottom because bold bets have stacked up over the last week and futures held last week's lows. Today TLT trading was heavily call-skewed, with more than 300,000 calls against about 80,000 puts, and nine of the top 10 contracts were calls. Only one put appeared in the top 10, which he reads as traders judging the risk-reward of betting on higher yields to be poor. The most popular October 30 expiry trade was the 82-strike call, which would mean TLT recovering the ground lost since the September 22 selloff.

  “it might be crazy to call bottom, but actually over the last week, we've seen some pretty bold bets stack up. They're doing just that, looking like a turnaround for yields.”at 38:44

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.

  Rates and midterm backlash put 10-15% of data center build-outs at risk, but 800-1,000 still get built.

  Ives says higher Treasury yields and political backlash over data centers ahead of the midterms put roughly 10 to 15% of build-outs at risk, mainly as delays rather than cancellations. Even so, around 800 to 1,000 data centers are still expected to be built, and government officials are aligned on supporting the buildout.

  “we've [said] probably 10 to 15% of data center build outs are potentially at risk between what's happened on the debt side, in terms of the tenure, as well as the midterms”at 7:12

• Cameron Dawson · NewEdge Wealth

  Hyperscaler capex growth slows sharply next year, with negative free cash flow widening and backlogs at risk.

  Dawson says hyperscaler capex grows about 100% this year and slows to about 30% next year, while free cash flow turns more negative as returns lag. Consensus expects cash flow from operations to inflect in 2028. If AI labs such as Anthropic or OpenAI can't raise enough capital and pull back, 30 to 40% of hyperscaler backlogs could be at risk. That would make investors question hyperscaler capex growth, which feeds into semiconductor earnings.

  “We know that hyperscaler spending on CapEx is going to slow next year. It's growing about a 100% this year, down to 30% next year, but free cash flow... Negative free cash flow will swell next year”at 15:38

• Malcolm Ethridge · Capital Area Planning Group

  Tighter bond appetite could curb hyperscaler spending from 2027, hitting the chip earnings story.

  Etheridge says Amazon's April bond deal to fund the buildout drew more demand than its September deal, which needed higher rates and looser covenants. He says the market is reading SpaceX's $40 billion debt raise as a sign the AI spending runway may be shorter than thought. He expects appetite for these bonds to shift in 2027, which could pull back hyperscalers' capacity to spend. That would hit the earnings picture.

  “Just back in April, Amazon issued bonds that were meant to, fund the hyperscaler build out. The ones they issued in September just after didn't have as much fanfare, and they had to actually increase rates and covenants to get them done.”at 16:32

AI chips & semiconductors

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.

  Chip supply won't reach equilibrium with AI demand until early 2029.

  Ives argues chip supply-demand equilibrium doesn't arrive until early 2029, so the AI build-out is an arms race in its early stage. He ties this to his view that near-term chip demand numbers keep being underestimated, with second and third-order effects still to come.

  “you could argue equilibrium from a chip perspective doesn't happen till early two thousand twenty nine. And I just view it. This is building Vegas Strip 1955.”at 8:22

• Cameron Dawson · NewEdge Wealth

  Semiconductor earnings are set to grow about 110% this year, though valuations have fallen from peak.

  Dawson argues semiconductor valuations have fallen a lot from their prior peak, which reflects the market pricing in peak earnings growth this year. She expects semiconductor earnings to grow about 110%, a figure that underpins her view that the sector's earnings story remains strong despite the derating.

  “I think with semiconductors, there's a certain aspect that semiconductor valuations are down a lot from their prior peak... Semiconductor's earnings are gonna grow a 110%.”at 12:08

US stock market outlook

• Cameron Dawson · NewEdge Wealth

  Strong earnings have offset higher rates, cutting the S&P 500 multiple to 19.3x from 23x.

  Dawson says the 10-year yield has risen about 50 basis points, and weak breadth is a direct casualty of higher rates. The S&P 500 multiple has fallen about 20% since the 10-year bottomed last October, yet the index is up 16% because earnings have been very strong. She notes 2027 earnings growth is expected to slow from 34% to 16%, leaving less buffer against macro shocks. The S&P trades at 19.3x, down from 23x a year ago.

  “The casualty of higher rates has been the effect of really weak breath in this market... In that time, the multiple in the S and P 500 is down 20%. But the market's up 16% because earnings have been so very strong.”at 11:05

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  Strong earnings should keep the rally going despite higher rates; mega-cap margins can absorb the rate increases.

  Garcia argues that markets are resilient even as rates rise because earnings are the backdrop, and earnings season is starting. If earnings stay strong, and she thinks they probably will, the rally can continue regardless of higher rates. She notes that for hyperscalers, whose margins can sustain higher rates given their demand, the pressure falls hardest on rate-sensitive, thin-margin businesses.

  “I think ultimately that's because earnings are the backdrop here... if earnings remain strong and the idea is they probably will, if expectations are met and or higher”at 41:36

AI regulation & safety

• Jay Clayton · Office of the Director of National Intelligence

  Speed versus safety is a false dichotomy; American AI leadership is essential to safety.

  Clayton says the trade-off between speed and safety is a false dichotomy, because technologies should be developed in ways that promote safety. American leadership is essential to safety and to the technology delivering maximum benefit to Americans. He argues models need control and monitoring that developers and the public accept, which the government will hold industry to over the next 120 days.

  “People talk about balance... It's actually the other way around. You have to develop technologies in a way that promotes safety... I think there's a real false dichotomy in that there's a trade off of speed and safety or a trade off of American leadership and safety.”at 20:40

• Nikesh Arora · Palo Alto Networks

  AI safety is an engineering problem; the goal is faster deployment with guardrails, not slowing down.

  Arora argues the challenge is not to slow the technology but to put the right safety and security harnesses around it, which he calls an engineering problem that is immensely doable. He says the superintelligence race will not be won without deploying at speed with the right guardrails. He also argues that frontier labs understand the need for responsible deployment and that extreme AI behaviour reflects testing of boundaries.

  “The challenge is not to slow the technology down. The challenge is to make sure that we put the right safety and security harnesses around this technology. And I think that is immensely doable.”at 23:13

Banks

• Leslie Picker · CNBC

  Bank stocks are under pressure from higher yields, sticky inflation, deposit flight and weaker trading and underwriting.

  Picker says bank stocks fell again ahead of next week's earnings because higher yields and sticky inflation are seen as a net negative for the industry. Investors are also spooked by the prospect that an AI agent could move customer deposits into higher-yielding products, which could squeeze margins. Concerns also center on Wall Street businesses, with fears that the best days in sales and trading are behind the industry and that underwriting fees could be weaker because several IPOs were postponed.

  “The recent weakness has been driven by the macro picture with higher yields and sticky inflation perceived as a net negative for the industry.”at 40:04

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  Bank selloff ahead of earnings is overdone; the deposit-flight fear is probably more fear than reality.

  Garcia likes that banks are down going into earnings season and expects them to be affected by rates. She thinks the concern that customers will move deposits to higher-yielding products is probably more fear than reality. The worry about weaker trading is also overdone in her view. She says investors should buy into the negativity and treats beaten-down bank stocks as a better opportunity than other trades.

  “I love the fact that banks are down going into earning season... I think probably that's a little more fear than it's gonna be in reality. So I think you absolutely wanna be buying into the negativity here.”at 43:19

Earnings & corporate profits

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.

  Street estimates for tech earnings are about 20% too low.

  Ives says the upcoming earnings season will show a blowout, not just for this quarter but for next year's tech numbers. He bases this on customer conversations at Palantir and on what he sees at the hyperscalers and in chips. He says Street estimates across the board are underestimated by about 20%.

  “I think Street across the board is underestimated by 20%. It's my view that as they continue to sort of play out...”at 3:51

US–China AI & chip race

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.

  The US is ahead of China in tech for the first time in thirty years.

  Ives says government officials are now on the same page about AI, and he sees a recognition that the US is ahead of China in tech for the first time in 30 years. He argues this is why more global money will flow to big tech to play the AI trade.

  “And it's my view, there's a recognition for the first time in thirty years, US is ahead of China when it comes to tech.”at 7:12

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Cameron Dawson · NewEdge Wealth

  Tech's valuation premium is too low given its earnings; Mag 7 burning cash no longer deserves big premium.

  Dawson says tech trades at 21x forward earnings, a low premium for the fastest-growing EPS sector. She says the quality of earnings has worsened: the Mag 7 used to be free-cash-flow machines that deserved a big premium, but they are now burning cash. Investors therefore should not pay as high a multiple for them.

  “The tech sector is trading at 21 times forward earnings, which is a very low premium for the largest growing or the best growing EPS sector... If you look at the mag seven, they used to be free cash flow generating machines. They deserve to trade at a big premium, but now they're burning cash flow.”at 12:08

US Treasuries & yields

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  Most of the rate increase is already priced in, so bonds are worth buying now to lock in high yields.

  Garcia believes most of the rate increases are already priced in. While rates could go higher, she doesn't know by how much, so rate-sensitive assets hit hardest by the move are worth nibbling at now. She suggests looking at bonds and small caps, and says bonds offer an alternative to stocks for the first time in years. Investors who have profits in stocks can take them and reinvest in bonds to lock in higher yields, with bonds acting as a cushion if stocks fall.

  “you're probably seeing a majority of the rate increases already priced in. So could they go higher? Yes. But how much higher from here? I don't know... look at bonds. Look at small caps.”at 42:48

US rates & the Fed

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  Expects the Fed to deliver at least one more rate hike after the October meeting, likely in December.

  Garcia says October pricing implies a hike is unlikely at the October meeting, but the likelihood of one in December is higher. She says the team is figuring there will probably be at least one more hike after that, while stressing that they still have to see how the data comes in. The view is hedged and conditional on incoming data.

  “we're figuring probably at least one more after that, but we gotta see how the data comes in.”at 45:03