Closing Bell 11/6/26

Apple

Across the shows: 50 speakers in other episodes, 59 bullish and 37 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Erik Woodring · Morgan StanleyBearish

  Apple's multiple is too high near term as services decelerate and margins stay challenged.

  Apple has held up this week because it is seen as defensive: a strong balance sheet, high iPhone retention, and a stance as the antithesis of the AI trade, with capex around $9B a year versus about $1T collectively for the other mega caps. A possible memory glut from data center permitting issues could also lower memory prices and help gross margins. But services is decelerating, with weakness in the App Store and third-party search licensing, which are its highest-margin businesses. Gross margins are still a challenge. Woodring says the 2018 thesis of rising services mix driving multiple expansion now works in reverse in the short term, so the multiple should weaken. Services could reaccelerate and margins expand a few quarters out.

  “to be totally fair, Scott, I think that view is actually fairly correct in the short term... if the 2018 thesis was services, services gross profit mix increasing, multiple expanding... in the short term that the reverse is true right now.”at 20:07

Seagate Technology Holdings

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 5 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Erik Woodring · Morgan StanleyBullish

  Seagate is overweight with a $1,148 target; fundamentals strong despite AI-capex fear.

  Seagate hit 52-week highs around June and is now down about 60%. After meeting management in Boston and New York this week, Woodring says fundamentals sound fantastic, and checks show the supply-demand gap widening. His report warns that as long as the market focuses on AI financing and capex fears, this higher-beta stock will underperform in the short term. He still sees an opportunity in the gap between sentiment and fundamentals, citing the April 2025 liberation-week selloff, after which he says the stock rose about eightfold. He acknowledges more risks and questions about growth sustainability.

  “Fundamentals sound fantastic right now. You know, checks yesterday tell you that the supply demand gap is widening.”at 20:57

Space Exploration Technologies

Across the shows: 50 speakers in other episodes, 69 bullish and 24 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Oliver Renick · CNBCBullish

  Traders remain devoted to SpaceX despite political headwinds, with call-heavy options positioning.

  Renick says traders remain devoted to Musk's space business despite possible new political headwinds. The stock is trading almost exactly where it IPO'd, around $1.35, and is up 8.5% on the day. Of 1.3 million options traded, 840,000 were calls, with more open buyers than sellers. The most popular contract is the 200 strike December 18 call, which needs a 50% comeback to pay off.

  “namely traders' devotion to Elon Musk's space business despite what arguably could be fresh political headwinds and the stock itself, which is backtrading almost exactly where it IPO'd around $1.35.”at 39:50

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Ed Yardeni · Yardeni Research

  Data center slowdown from physical, political and financial limits is speed bumps, not the end of the buildout.

  Yardeni argues that power shortages, construction labour and plumber constraints, political pushback and financial constraints (including capital markets now regulating neocloud bond issuance) are slowing data center construction. He calls these speed bumps, not potholes, and says the cycle is stretched out rather than ended. He points to a Texas governor who wants to slow data centers but not stop them, and says states and communities that welcome them will remain. He argues developers will have to prove they bring their own power, avoid careless water use and deliver net benefits. He sees the slowdown as healthy because power and labour constraints would have capped the pace anyway.

  “I think it's speed bumps. I don't think it's... at the end of the road for data centers.”at 3:26

• Meghan Shue · Wilmington Trust

  A slowdown in AI build-out would be healthy, reducing supply-chain shocks, if not a termination of it.

  Shue has argued that rolling waves of pessimism are good for the longevity of the market. A potential slowdown in the AI build-out could be healthy as long as it is a deliberate slowing rather than a termination, which she does not think is the case. A more deliberate build-out could mean fewer supply-chain shocks along the way.

  “we're talking about a potential slowdown in the AI build out. I've actually been on here talking about these rolling waves of pessimism being a good thing for the longevity of the market... as long as we are slowing, maybe being a little bit more deliberate about the build out and not terminating it, which I don't think is the case, it could make for a healthier environment, maybe fewer supply chain shocks along the way.”at 43:02

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Ed Yardeni · Yardeni Research

  Semiconductors are cheap at about 13x forward earnings; the selloff is a buying opportunity.

  Semiconductor stocks now trade at a forward P/E of about 13 despite soaring earnings. Yardeni notes that high earnings have historically coincided with the lowest P/Es in cyclical sectors, since the market expects profits to fund capacity expansion and bring prices down. He sees an underlying secular uptrend in semiconductor use. He concedes capacity growth may moderate pricing, but argues innovation offsets this, as chipmakers keep producing more efficient, cooler chips that need less data center space. He says whatever got knocked down hard in the selloff is a buying opportunity.

  “Well, more than that. I mean, semis are cheap. You know, we're looking out forward PE of 13.”at 7:01

• Jeremy Siegel · WisdomTree

  The AI chip selloff is a healthy shakeout; semiconductors are fairly valued, not cheap.

  Siegel calls the sell-off a healthy shakeup that removed over-enthusiasm. The semiconductor index went from up over 100% to up about 23%. He has long argued that if an AI profit wave lasts about three years with triple normal profits and then normalises, a stock should rise only about 20-25%, and the index has come down to roughly that level. Forward P/E looks cheap, but that reflects an unusual, temporary profit cycle that should be cheap. He says the decline prevents a bubble. He does not think chips are undervalued but considers them fairly valued given risks of a shorter cycle, a possible short circuit to the cycle, and political risk.

  “I think this is a healthy shakeup... shook out a lot of that really over enthusiasm given all the risks that do face that AI trade.”at 13:11

AI & jobs

• Jeremy Siegel · WisdomTree

  Strong payrolls and productivity data show AI productivity gains finally appearing in the economy.

  Siegel cites this week's strong payroll report and strong productivity data as evidence that the economy is beginning to show the AI productivity gains investors had hoped for and waited for. In his view AI-driven output gains are now visible in the economic data rather than just promised.

  “...this economy is beginning to show the AI productivity gains that we had all hoped for and waited for.”at 15:31

US consumer

• Jeremy Siegel · WisdomTree

  Consumer spending will absorb any slack from AI investment, helped by oil falling to $70-80.

  Wapner noted that about 75% of current GDP growth comes from the AI infrastructure build-out, so any hiccup would hit GDP. Siegel calls that hope and expects rotation. If Iran developments bring oil back to $70-80, that would be a huge boost to consumers and to sentiment. He says confidence is already improving after an announcement today and believes consumer spending will take up any slack from reduced AI investment.

  “If we can bring that oil back to 70, 80, I think that's a huge boost for the consumer and psychologically... that consumer spending is gonna take up any slack that we might have in AI investment.”at 16:26

AI: overall outlook

• Meghan Shue · Wilmington Trust

  Over the next twelve months, the overall AI investment story remains intact despite the pullback.

  Shue is buy-rated on the market for investors willing to look out over the next twelve months. She thinks the overall AI story remains intact even as AI spending concerns and oil and Fed risks dominate near-term trading. Earnings support the view, with energy and tech strength alongside the rest of the market.

  “if you are willing to look out over the next twelve months, I think the overall AI story remains intact.”at 44:04

Earnings & corporate profits

• Meghan Shue · Wilmington Trust

  Earnings are strong beyond energy and tech, with the rest of the market at about double-digit growth.

  Shue points to earnings support from energy and tech, and also from the rest of the market, which she puts at about double-digit earnings growth. She calls that very solid and says it gives the market some strength into the end of the year and a solid start to 2027.

  “I think the earnings are there not only from energy and tech, obviously, but also from the rest of the market at about double digit earnings growth.”at 44:14

US rates & the Fed

• Meghan Shue · Wilmington Trust

  Inflation is not a major problem and the Fed won't hike further; it could cut in 2027.

  Shue's team thinks inflation is not much of a problem, and the economy is not as hot as it looks on the surface. That means the Fed is not going to need to hike rates more, contrary to the market's view. She argues the Fed could actually be cutting in 2027. This is why she likes cyclicals and small caps, since they are tied to oil and Fed policy.

  “We actually have a view that the inflation is really not that much of a problem. The economy is probably not quite as hot as it looks on the surface, and the Fed is not going to need to hike rates more. I know that's not the market's view, but could actually be cutting in 2027.”at 45:07

US stock market outlook

• Meghan Shue · Wilmington Trust

  Favors cyclicals and small caps, especially quality names, as the market rotates toward quality.

  Because she expects inflation to be contained and the Fed to possibly cut in 2027, Shue likes cyclicals, with small caps in particular. Within small caps she favors the quality stack. She sees a broader quality rotation across the market, including within tech. She also sees potential for a rebound from oil acting as a market stimulus in 2027.

  “So that does put us in a position of liking cyclicals, small cap, in particular. I would stay up on the quality stack within small cap, and with the market at large.”at 45:17