Speaker · Updated
Oliver Renick: latest market views
CNBC
Summary
Oliver Renick is CNBC's options reporter, reporting live from the Cboe trading floor in Chicago, and previously anchored at Schwab Network and Bloomberg.
Chorus has 8 views from Oliver Renick across 8 episodes on CNBC Closing Bell and CNBC Fast Money since October 9, 2026. Their latest calls: bearish on VanEck Semiconductor ETF and Apple.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- VanEck Semiconductor ETFBearish ·
- AppleBearish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Market sentiment, positioning & volatility
After the VIX jumps five-plus points, S&P 500 returns over the next three and six months beat average.
Using Bespoke data, Renick finds that when the VIX jumps at least five points, the median S&P 500 return over the next three and six months is above four and four-and-a-half percent, which he calculates is better than average. His caveat is that over a one-year horizon the outcome looks like any other day, and that over one month the average return is negative because of a few severe bear markets. He frames the current volatility spike as a more constructive setup for investors who zoom out over several months.
“When the VIX jumps at least five points, the median S and P 500 return the next three and six months is more than four and four and a half percent respectively, which by my math is better than the average.”at 42:03
VanEck Semiconductor ETFBearish
Options traders are heavily betting on a further selloff in the semiconductor ETF SMH.
SMH fell more than 3% while the VIX still dropped about four points, which Renick says is a first on record. He points to bearish options activity: volume at twice average, twice as many puts as calls, and most of the premium in puts. The most popular trade is the $4.75 put expiring November 13. He reads this as traders expecting further downside in chip stocks, with the ETF already in bear-market territory, and as traders rotating into calls on airlines, housing and solar.
“The options traders are piling on bearish into the chip ETF, which is now in bear market territory. Two times average volume, twice as many puts traded versus calls, and most of the premium tied to those puts.”at 40:25
AppleBearish
Heavy Apple put buying is a cheap hedge against a market break, since Apple options are cheap versus other mega-caps.
Of about 1 million Apple contracts traded, 700,000 were puts, a 1.8-to-1 put-to-call ratio, the highest for Apple this year. Apple put prices relative to calls sit at the 97th percentile of the past year. Because Apple has been the big-tech safety trade, its volatility has been low, so options are still the cheapest of any Magnificent Seven stock even before earnings, with an implied move of 4%. Renick says that makes Apple puts a low-cost, no-brainer way to protect against a large market break. The stance is inferred from the hedging demand and is hedged, not a stated price call.
“So in other words, the message here may be that Apple puts are a low cost relative, no brainer opportunity to save yourself in case this very big”at 43:08
VanEck Semiconductor ETFBearish
Options traders are heavily buying puts on the semiconductor ETF, signaling bearish positioning.
Renick reports that the options market shows no buy-the-dip reaction in tech trades. In the memory ETF DRAM, puts outnumber calls. In SMH, more than two and a half puts traded for every call. Total put premium in the Nasdaq reached about $2.5 billion, against $1.5 billion in calls, while VIX hit its highest level since April.
“In memory ETF DRAM... There's more puts trading than calls today, and in SMH, there were more than two and a half puts traded for every call”at 45:56
Space Exploration TechnologiesNeutral
SpaceX options look cheap: its volatility has halved and it trades largely independently of big tech.
Renick says SpaceX has held steady near $1.45 for about two months even though the market has been volatile. Its 60-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 is 0.6 and with the S&P 500 is 0.4, so it trades fairly independently of big tech. SpaceX's volatility is now half what it was three months ago while index volatility has risen. He concludes that SpaceX options look very cheap, and big-money traders are selling options in both directions to bet the stock stays stable.
“SpaceX vol is now half what it was three months ago, while index vol for stocks has gone up. So it's options for SpaceX that arguably look very cheap.”at 41:12
ModernaUncertain
Moderna's put-heavy options flow looks like a needed shakeout of speculative bulls, with a rebound likely by Friday.
Renick says Moderna traded more than seven times its 30-day average volume, with puts outpacing calls. Seven of the top 10 most-bought contracts were puts, including 15,000 in-the-money 200-strike puts. Implied volatility fell and sat only slightly above realized volatility, which he reads as a shakeout of speculative bulls chasing the rally. Some traders are buying calls at the $2.50 strike expiring Friday, betting the sell-off reverses by then.
“Implied volatility in Moderna actually went down today and only slightly above the stock's realized volatility, suggesting this might just be a needed shakeout of speculative bulls who had been chasing the rally.”at 36:53
CNBC Fast Money: Tech Tumbles In Market Sell-Off… And Moderna’s Meltdown After Data Leak 10/22/26 ·
Micron TechnologyNeutral
Micron's options flow shows dip buying, but call-spread selling suggests only a near-term low, not a big rally.
Micron slumped about 5% alongside Sandisk and a drop in South Korean stocks, after nearing its all-time high following last month's earnings. Renick notes that call purchases exceeded puts by just under two to one, and the most-traded contract was the 1,000 strike call expiring the next day, which needs about a 6% rally to pay off. He cautions that big call-spread sellers are also present, so the flows may signal Micron finding a near-term low rather than a large rally.
“Now the catch is that we also saw some big call spread sellers, so this may be more about Micron finding a near term low rather than a big rip higher, Scott.”at 37:20
Market sentiment, positioning & volatility
Options traders are piling into tech puts as stock-bond correlation turns positive, so falling yields may be needed for stocks.
Renick reads the options market as bearish on tech while bond traders are buying calls. Put contracts on QQQ are at their biggest build relative to calls since June, and traders bought puts on the semiconductor ETF SMH at three times the call volume on above-average volume. Bond-proxy trades are bullish: calls on TLT ran three to one over puts, and rate-sensitive utilities saw calls at two to one. He argues the charts make sense of this. The correlation between the 10-year yield and the Nasdaq is currently +0.8, so higher stocks would require lower yields. He concludes the options message this week is to think twice before expecting stocks to rise while yields are still elevated.
“Tech bears getting aggressive just when yields finally stop going up. ... The correlation between the ten year yield and the Nasdaq is currently positive point eight.”at 41:34
Shows
- CNBC Closing Bell · 7 episodes
- CNBC Fast Money · 1 episode
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