Closing Bell: 11/2/26

Apple

Across the shows: 22 speakers in other episodes, 10 bullish and 17 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bullish

  Apple's AI offering can drive services growth and a $400-450 sum-of-parts value; he stays bullish.

  Ives argues the debate is about AI monetization. He sees a strong iPhone cycle, with about 325 million devices due for upgrade after four years, strength in China, and a first real AI offering. He expects services revenue to reach 15-20% growth over the next 18-24 months and calls Apple the toll collector on the AI consumer highway. On a sum-of-parts basis he sees the stock at roughly $400-450 (transcript reads '4 to $450'). He concedes slowing iPhone growth and some services headwinds, but says services remain double-digit.

  “it's about what the monetization piece is gonna be from AI. Because I believe services, that will be 15 to 20% overall services revenue over the next eighteen, twenty four months.”at 6:00

• Brian Belski · Humilis Investment StrategiesBullish

  Apple's premium multiple is earned by its free cash flow, earnings consistency and ecosystem; he is bullish.

  Belski says the 36x multiple reflects a cash flow juggernaut with $136 billion of free cash flow, while Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta have had negative free cash flow in parts of the period. He cites no earnings misses since 2022 and says Apple's ecosystem strategy let it avoid overspending on AI. He has owned the stock for 14 years in a long-term portfolio. He expects investors to keep paying for steadiness and balance sheet strength, and says trading around the print is dangerous for a company like this.

  “This company is a cash flow juggernaut. $136,000,000,000 of free cash flow where the rest of the [Mag] seven names, especially Microsoft, Google, Amazon have been negative free cash flow.”at 7:52

• Malcolm Ethridge · Capital Area Planning GroupUncertain

  Apple lacks a consumer AI tool and its clock is ticking as iPhone sales trend down.

  Ethridge says Apple trades at about double the S&P 500 multiple with no consumer AI tool people can use. Meta has shown AI can do things for consumers, while Apple's AI reaches only about 10 million weekly users. Apple's 2.5 billion installed devices are the TAM, but Apple needs to lean into the doing side of AI. He has been patient, but says the clock is ticking loudly, and that falling global iPhone sales do not help. Apple needs a strong story to justify holding the shares after the print.

  “I think the clock is ticking very loudly... The iPhone sales globally trending downward doesn't help them right now, so they're gonna have to be able to tell a really good story”at 9:14

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsNeutral

  Apple's report won't wow investors as iPhone and services growth slow for a third quarter.

  Link says Apple is about 7% of the S&P 500 and the report should not change the market much. At 36x earnings, she objects to paying up for slowing iPhone growth, which is about half of revenue. Services growth has slowed for a third quarter. She expects margins to hold because management de-risked guidance, but she sees only low double-digit earnings growth, so she has other tech names she prefers.

  “I think it's gonna be fine. I just don't think it's going to wow a lot of people.”at 16:45

• Oliver Renick · CNBCBearish

  Heavy Apple put buying is a cheap hedge against a market break, since Apple options are cheap versus other mega-caps.

  Of about 1 million Apple contracts traded, 700,000 were puts, a 1.8-to-1 put-to-call ratio, the highest for Apple this year. Apple put prices relative to calls sit at the 97th percentile of the past year. Because Apple has been the big-tech safety trade, its volatility has been low, so options are still the cheapest of any Magnificent Seven stock even before earnings, with an implied move of 4%. Renick says that makes Apple puts a low-cost, no-brainer way to protect against a large market break. The stance is inferred from the hedging demand and is hedged, not a stated price call.

  “So in other words, the message here may be that Apple puts are a low cost relative, no brainer opportunity to save yourself in case this very big”at 43:08

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital AdvisorsBearish

  Concerned about Apple's decelerating margins and services growth; guidance will decide the stock.

  Snipe is concerned going into the print. Margins are decelerating, and services growth has slowed from 16% two quarters ago to 12% last quarter, with this quarter guided to 10%. He expects revenue growth around 11% and close to $2 in earnings, but says Apple must manage memory costs, which has led it to raise prices on wearables and products. He says the guidance for the holiday quarter and next year, which covers close to $150 billion of revenue, matters more than the one quarter of iPhone 18 sales, so guidance will be the key variable.

  “The concern for me is decelerating margins, decelerating, ... services business. ...the services business was up 16%, ... Last quarter was 12, and this quarter, the guide is for 10.”at 43:42

Palantir Technologies

Across the shows: 6 speakers in other episodes, 4 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bullish

  Palantir's commercial growth is a barometer for AI spending and it can reach a $1 trillion market cap.

  Ives calls Palantir one of the biggest barometers for the AI spending trade. Hyperscaler buildouts are foundational, but real use cases show up in Palantir's commercial business. He expects commercial growth well ahead of Street forecasts in coming quarters and says the stock is not expensive given free cash flow over the next few years. He has discussed a $250 price target and believes the company can reach a $1 trillion market cap in the next few years.

  “I view this as one of the biggest barometers for the AI spending trade... I believe this is gonna be a trillion dollar [market] cap in the next few years.”at 13:18

• Brian Belski · Humilis Investment StrategiesBullish

  Palantir's free cash flow growth has compressed its multiple; he owns it and is bullish.

  Belski says his firm owns Palantir. Free cash flow went from $321 million three years ago to $3.3 billion now. He compares it to Amazon, whose multiple fell as earnings came through. He says the multiple has dropped about 15 points in the last two years as earnings rose. He calls Palantir the company to own for software-based AI security defense, given the balance-sheet and cash-flow support behind it.

  “[Palantir had] $321,000,000 of free cash flow [three years ago]. Now it's got 3,300,000,000... The multiple has actually dropped fifteen multiple points the last two years because the earnings are coming in.”at 14:22

Anthropic

Across the shows: 81 speakers in other episodes, 98 bullish and 64 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Leslie Picker · CNBCUncertain

  Anthropic's compute costs and $895 billion of commitments make revenue-versus-expense growth the key IPO question.

  Picker reports Q3 revenue of $17 billion, up 1100% year over year but about 47% quarter over quarter. Operating income turned negative in Q3 after being positive in Q2, as compute and infrastructure costs nearly doubled to about $10 billion. Revenue per dollar of compute ticked down to 172 after peaking in Q2. Future commitments of about $895 billion, mostly compute, step up from about $5 billion in 2026 to $29 billion in 2027 and $44 billion in 2028. Picker says investors will ask whether top-line growth can keep pace and how much capital the IPO must raise.

  “the cost for compute and infrastructure nearly doubled... The key question investors will want to know is how their top line growth will keep pace with the growth in future expenses”at 27:26

Las Vegas Raiders

• Michael Ozanian · CNBC

  Teams controlling stadium operating rights rather than owning the building is a better, emerging model.

  Ozanian says the Raiders own no stake in the building but control the economics, which he calls better than owning, since owners do not want a depreciating asset. He cites the Las Vegas state receiving a revenue stream and private money financing the stadium, and expects similar structures from the Browns and Chiefs. He presents this as a model teams will increasingly follow.

  “if you can control the operating rights, it's better than actually owning it. You know, you you don't wanna own a depreciating asset per se.”at 37:16

Earnings & corporate profits

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  Earnings are strong and broad, so investors should rotate from defensives into cyclicals.

  Link cites 50% of companies reporting so far with 25% earnings growth and 12% revenue growth, and says the results are broad based. GDP is 3%+ (about 3.4%). In October the S&P 500 fell 93 basis points, but nine of 11 sectors rose and 327 of 500 stocks rose 2% or more, not only defensives. Defensives have run and are getting expensive again, so she prefers cyclical companies that just reported strong numbers.

  “50% of the companies that have reported so far have reported 25% earnings growth, 12% revenue growth, and it's been broad based... I think that though you could sell some of the defenses”at 21:00

• Michael Santoli · CNBC

  Big companies have not traded well on earnings this season, so Apple's drop may reflect that pattern.

  Santoli says stocks that pushed back toward January levels have not been rewarded, and the playbook of clearing the decks before earnings has not worked this season. He argues Apple is down not because investors expect a bad number, but because large companies have generally not traded well after their results. He therefore sees a broader pattern of weak post-earnings price reactions among big companies this season.

  “Hasn't really worked though, that playbook this earning season. I think that might be why Apple is down too, not because people expect a bad number, but because these big companies have not generally traded well off their results.”at 41:08

US stock market outlook

• Adam Parker · Trivariate Research

  US equities can rise over 5% by year end; he favors cyclicals over expensive defensives.

  Parker thinks 7,900 for the S&P 500 may be too low. He says institutional investors talk less about the midterms, that the Fed's peak concern may be past, and that earnings have been strong. Only communication services and tech were down last month, which he takes as a better sign for corporate earnings than defensive rotation. He still expects the tech trade to end higher and says investors should trim expensive defensives and add cyclical offense, with more than 5% upside possible.

  “the Christmas gift you're talking about is maybe even not that good... 7,900 might be too low. I could see us having more than a 5% move higher once we get some of the clearing events”at 23:15

• Michael Santoli · CNBC

  Market stays risk-averse; failed bounce without semis gives investors another reason to stay defensive.

  The S&P bounced almost 1% off Friday's low, but semiconductors did not participate, and Apple did not offset the chip weakness as it usually does. Santoli reads this failed bounce as giving people another reason to stay risk-averse, with hedging and stress measures building ahead of the election. Oil falling and rates being tamed have not lifted stocks broadly, which he attributes mainly to the AI trade remaining suspect. Outside defensive sectors, the market has not capitalised on the damage already done.

  “So it feels like that kind of failed bounce attempt, is giving people yet another reason just to stay risk averse and stay back on their heels.”at 40:19

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Gabriela Santos · J.P. Morgan Asset Management

  AI sentiment has deteriorated enough that November could improve if hyperscaler free cash flow bottoms.

  Santos uses the gap between momentum and quality as a gauge of AI euphoria. It was 32 percentage points in late June and has nearly closed after the July correction and October's AI sentiment slide. Investors have refocused on quality, and dispersion within AI-related industries has grown. She says a sign from hyperscalers that free cash flow is bottoming, plus attractive valuations, could make the rest of November and the year end better.

  “I like looking at the gap between momentum and quality as a measure of how excited or euphoric the market is about the AI story... If you look now, that gap has almost closed.”at 17:58

US rates & the Fed

• Gabriela Santos · J.P. Morgan Asset Management

  Markets have priced in Fed hikes; she expects one more hike, with growth resilient and inflation contained.

  Santos says December 2027 rate expectations went from 3% to as high as 5% and that this has already been priced in. She expects investors to be dovishly surprised. Growth is resilient even without the consumer's mid-year boost, but it is not inflationary, with wages growing 3% nominal, which should not worry the Fed. She thinks one more hike is the most likely path. The two-year yield's first negative month since February, and its biggest fall since August 2025, suggests the rate cycle is turning.

  “investors are probably gonna be more dovishly surprised by the fed from here... we've honestly just think one more hike, and it's a good thing to see that the two year finally had a negative month”at 22:10

IPOs, M&A & deal activity

• Kate Rooney · CNBC

  AI IPO timing hinges on market sentiment and AI demand, not the calendar; spillover is hitting private markets.

  Rooney says the biggest pushback on the Anthropic and OpenAI timelines was that the calendar is not the constraint. Market sentiment is, and it was very positive until recently, but there are now cracks. The mag seven and AI trade will be major factors in demand for the listing. AI jitters are spilling into private markets, where crossover funds in later-stage deals are cutting allocations, which will likely spill into IPOs too. Whether AI spending pays off is still an open question.

  “The biggest thing and the biggest pushback we got was it's actually really not the calendar for an IPO this big. It is market sentiment.”at 31:08