Closing Bell Overtime: 10/30/26

Apple

Across the shows: 14 speakers in other episodes, 5 bullish and 11 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Craig Moffett · MoffettNathansonBearish

  Apple's safe-haven premium is priced in at 36x forward earnings, so the stock may have overshot.

  Moffett says Apple is seen as the safe choice among mega caps, and that trade has played out for months. The stock trades at about 36 times forward earnings, a roughly 2.8% earnings yield, which he notes is about half the Treasury yield. He argues the safety is already fully priced in, so the stock may have overshot. He also points out that Apple fell today while money was leaving other mega caps, which he reads as a sign that money may rotate into cheaper companies with better free cash flow or earnings yields rather than into names that have already run up this year, Apple included.

  “It's already priced in so much safety that you wonder whether it... It's overshot somewhat.”at 42:48

• Craig Moffett · MoffettNathansonBearish

  Memory-driven price hikes on Apple devices make the upgrade cycle harder, as customers keep old phones longer.

  Moffett says higher memory costs have already raised the price of Apple's base devices by $100. US wireless carriers have not increased promotions to offset this, so consumers are paying more, whether up front or spread over 36 months of payments. He argues that everything has price elasticity. The real competition for Apple is not Android, but the device customers already own. Higher price tags make people hold on to their current phone a few more months, and since existing Apple devices work well, that inertia is the challenge Apple has to overcome in the upgrade cycle.

  “No question. It's already raised the price of devices by a $100 in... all the base devices.”at 43:51

Alphabet

Across the shows: 37 speakers in other episodes, 28 bullish and 18 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tony Wang · T. Rowe PriceBullish

  Google's search users are sticky, so AI search should monetize well over the long term.

  Responding to concerns that AI queries cost more to serve and monetize less clearly than traditional search, Tony says Google has many levers to pull in its ecosystem. He says users are pretty sticky and that AI Mode is a different search format that gives more signals. He says Google can tinker and experiment, and that as long as users stay engaged, the company will figure it out. He expects the format to monetize well over the long term. Alphabet is among the top 10 holdings of his fund, which the host stated on air.

  “Google has, like, a lot of different levers to pull in their ecosystem. And I think that the users are pretty sticky... I think over the long term, that should monetize well.”at 8:02

Merck & Co.

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 0 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Annika Kim Constantino · CNBCBullish

  Merck's investments are paying off, with subcutaneous Keytruda near $1 billion in sales.

  Kevin says Merck's investments are starting to pay off. The subcutaneous version of Keytruda is starting to rake in almost $1 billion in sales. He takes this as evidence of genuine strength in pharma, rather than the rotation alone driving the stocks.

  “When you think about Merck, we're actually seeing some of their investments start to pay off. You think about a subcutaneous version of Keytruda. That's starting to rake in almost [$1 billion] in sales.”at 11:37

Eli Lilly and Company

Across the shows: 7 speakers in other episodes, 7 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Annika Kim Constantino · CNBCBearish

  Eli Lilly's valuation is extremely high, at double the forward P/E of Nvidia or Meta.

  Kevin points to Lilly's pipeline, which Dave Ricks highlighted. He says valuations are still extremely high, with Lilly trading at double the forward P/E of Nvidia or Meta. He also says valuations in pharma names in particular are getting ahead of themselves, which an analyst raised.

  “you take Eli Lilly for instance, it's double the forward PE of an Nvidia or a [Meta].”at 11:37

Anthropic

Across the shows: 73 speakers in other episodes, 82 bullish and 63 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Warren Pies · 3Fourteen ResearchBullish

  Anthropic's S-1 shows revenue per compute dollar quadrupling, the key metric supporting the AI trade.

  Pies says the most important metric in Anthropic's S-1 is revenue per dollar spent on compute. That figure went from 57 cents one year ago to over $2. He calls it a quadrupling within the Anthropic number. He pairs this with real-time GPU metrics, which show nothing broken in the AI trade fundamentally.

  “I think that the most important metric we saw in that was [revenue] dollar per dollar spent on compute. So that's gone from 57¢ one year ago to over $2.”at 19:09

US stock market outlook

• Warren Pies · 3Fourteen Research

  A further 25%-plus multiple contraction would need recession or a hiking cycle, so he is leaning aggressive.

  The [forward P/E] ratio has already contracted more than 20%. Historically, a further contraction of 25% or more has happened only in a few cases, including 2002, 2008, 2020, and 2022. Each of those required recession or a monster hiking cycle. Meanwhile forward earnings estimates are ramping faster than they were even last year at this time, which Pies says is not normal for year-end. Given these fundamentals, he wants to be aggressive and add exposure rather than call for a big bear market.

  “The [forward P/E] ratio has already contracted more than 20%... you're either in recession territory or fed in a monster hike cycle to get that kind of contraction.”at 18:38

• Warren Pies · 3Fourteen Research

  Equal-weight S&P 500 is a rates trade in disguise, so a broader selloff than tech looks likely.

  Pies is worried about the equal-weight S&P 500 because its strength is a rates trade in disguise. Falling yields have supported it, and yields in tech stocks have started to correlate with each other. He thinks the room for yields to keep supporting the equal-weight index is exhausted. When that support rolls out, he expects a broader-based selloff beyond tech.

  “I am actually worried about the equal weight S and P 500 here because this is just a rates trade in disguise... we've had as much support out of falling yields as we can get.”at 22:19

• Guy Adami · CNBC

  Structural technical damage to the market has been done, even though the market defended September lows.

  Adami notes the S&P 500 made an all-time high in October and traded down to flirt with September lows, but defended them. He calls that good news. The bad news, in his view, is that the structural damage in moving averages and other technical measures has absolutely been done.

  “The bad news is, as you said earlier, the structural damage in this market in terms of moving average and all those things has absolutely been done.”at 32:38

AI chips & semiconductors

• Tony Wang · T. Rowe Price

  Semiconductors are an area where he wants offensive exposure, because fundamentals are improving and multiples can expand.

  Tony says some areas have second-derivative acceleration, where fundamentals are improving and the multiple can expand. These are the earliest areas to look at for a bargain after the selloff. He says a well-constructed portfolio should have some offense in semiconductors. He stays brief and does not give a specific data point.

  “there's some areas where you wanna have it... the fundamentals are improving, the multiple can expand... in addition to having some offense here with with semis.”at 8:57

• Warren Pies · 3Fourteen Research

  Tech must lead again; he wants semis to bottom and form higher lows before adding risk.

  Pies believes the index can only work if tech leads. He says it is unhealthy when staples are up 2% while tech falls. He is not ready to add risk yet. He wants semis to bottom out, test the July lows, and hold them, then establish a series of higher lows, with the Nasdaq following. He also wants sentiment to wash out, citing inverse ETF volume and elevated vol-target positioning as signs it has not happened yet.

  “I still believe that tech has to lead... I'm not ready to add risk yet. I would like to see semis bottom out. That's been the ideal leadership for the market.”at 20:41

Oil & fuels

• Pippa Stevens · CNBC

  Oil supply is not recovering consistently, and the flow declines make the current setup unsustainable.

  Stevens says oil is coming out, but not consistently. Latest figures show about 12 million barrels per day, down from 17 million a couple of weeks earlier. The cost to move the oil is growing. She calls this a situation that is not a sustainable long-term solution. She also notes the market is realizing eight months in that it is roughly back where it started.

  “the latest figures show about 12,000,000 barrels per day down from 17,000,000 a couple of weeks ago... the cost to move it, is growing and is not a sustainable long term solution.”at 29:17

• Guy Adami · CNBC

  Energy market is fundamentally changed; oil prices may not fall even if the war ends.

  Adami calls the energy earnings staggering, citing Exxon and Chevron. He says the energy market has been fundamentally changed. Even if the [war] ended tomorrow, which he thinks is unlikely, he does not think it necessarily means prices fall the way one would expect. He also sees real value in energy stocks and expects the energy move to continue.

  “I think the energy market has been fundamentally changed. So the [war] could end tomorrow... I don't think it necessarily means the price is going down in the way that one would think it would.”at 30:46

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Tony Wang · T. Rowe Price

  AI demand remains strong, but spenders must beat and show ROI as the cycle matures.

  Tony says the market is in a later stage of the cycle, with many crosscurrents. Demand for AI continues to be really strong, and cloud players are seeing good signals. Because companies are spending a lot, they must beat and impress to show returns and confirm ROI. When they fail to do so, narratives about competition or macro concerns creep in, which is what he thinks the market is wrestling with.

  “So we're definitely later on in the cycle. At the same time, demand for AI continues to be really strong and the cloud players are seeing really good signals.”at 5:44

Enterprise AI adoption & AI software

• Tony Wang · T. Rowe Price

  Enterprise AI adoption is the next leg of the AI trade because the area is still under-penetrated.

  AI spending has flowed through different parts of the ecosystem so far. Tony argues the next leg is probably enterprise adoption because that area is still pretty under-penetrated. He says companies that help enable enterprise adoption will benefit. He stresses the data layer as critical because companies must get their data ready before they can apply LLMs. He adds that the intelligence already exists and the remaining work is integration, or the plumbing.

  “I think that what the next leg is, is probably enterprise adoption. I think that area is still pretty under penetrated.”at 10:12

Robotics & autonomous vehicles

• Tony Wang · T. Rowe Price

  Physical AI is an interesting area whose adoption curves are early but inevitable.

  Tony says physical AI is out there a bit more than enterprise adoption but is still a very interesting area. He says its adoption curves are earlier in the process, though he thinks they are inevitable. He cites no specific metric, so the view is brief.

  “physical AI is probably like out there a little bit more, but still like a very interesting area where the [adoption] curves are earlier, but I think are inevitable essentially.”at 10:12

AI: overall outlook

• Warren Pies · 3Fourteen Research

  AI trade fundamentals are intact; only technicals are breaking, so he cut exposure.

  Pies's firm builds conviction on fundamentals and manages risk on technicals. He sees no fundamental breakdown in the AI trade and says challenges are a starting point. Technicals are rolling over, though. Index momentum stalled into a consolidation, staples were outperforming financials, and hyperscaler credit spreads jumped above their July wides. These technicals led him to take down risk on Monday despite intact fundamentals.

  “I think the fundamentals are intact. That's the big picture. You zoom out months down the road, I don't see anything broken in the AI trade. There's definitely challenges, but that's the starting point.”at 17:31

Pharma & biotech

• Guy Adami · CNBC

  Merck, Bristol Myers and biotech names are reasonably priced after being overlooked, unlike Lilly's premium.

  Adami says Eli Lilly trades at a premium to peers, which may be deserved. He says other names such as Merck, Bristol Myers, and some biotech stocks are reasonably priced, especially after being overlooked. If money keeps moving out of other sectors, it may flow into health care, which could eventually earn a market multiple. He says health care is nowhere close to that now.

  “Merck or even a Bristol Myers and throw some biotech stocks in, they are reasonably priced, especially in an environment where they were overlooked.”at 32:57