Speaker · Updated
Warren Pies: latest market views
3Fourteen Research
Summary
Warren Pies is co-founder and strategist at 3Fourteen Research, a macro and market research firm, and previously led Ned Davis Research's energy and commodity strategy.
Chorus has 9 views from Warren Pies across 2 episodes on CNBC Closing Bell since October 23, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Anthropic.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- AnthropicBullish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
AI trade fundamentals are intact; only technicals are breaking, so he cut exposure.
Pies's firm builds conviction on fundamentals and manages risk on technicals. He sees no fundamental breakdown in the AI trade and says challenges are a starting point. Technicals are rolling over, though. Index momentum stalled into a consolidation, staples were outperforming financials, and hyperscaler credit spreads jumped above their July wides. These technicals led him to take down risk on Monday despite intact fundamentals.
“I think the fundamentals are intact. That's the big picture. You zoom out months down the road, I don't see anything broken in the AI trade. There's definitely challenges, but that's the starting point.”at 17:31
A further 25%-plus multiple contraction would need recession or a hiking cycle, so he is leaning aggressive.
The [forward P/E] ratio has already contracted more than 20%. Historically, a further contraction of 25% or more has happened only in a few cases, including 2002, 2008, 2020, and 2022. Each of those required recession or a monster hiking cycle. Meanwhile forward earnings estimates are ramping faster than they were even last year at this time, which Pies says is not normal for year-end. Given these fundamentals, he wants to be aggressive and add exposure rather than call for a big bear market.
“The [forward P/E] ratio has already contracted more than 20%... you're either in recession territory or fed in a monster hike cycle to get that kind of contraction.”at 18:38
AnthropicBullish
Anthropic's S-1 shows revenue per compute dollar quadrupling, the key metric supporting the AI trade.
Pies says the most important metric in Anthropic's S-1 is revenue per dollar spent on compute. That figure went from 57 cents one year ago to over $2. He calls it a quadrupling within the Anthropic number. He pairs this with real-time GPU metrics, which show nothing broken in the AI trade fundamentally.
“I think that the most important metric we saw in that was [revenue] dollar per dollar spent on compute. So that's gone from 57¢ one year ago to over $2.”at 19:09
Tech must lead again; he wants semis to bottom and form higher lows before adding risk.
Pies believes the index can only work if tech leads. He says it is unhealthy when staples are up 2% while tech falls. He is not ready to add risk yet. He wants semis to bottom out, test the July lows, and hold them, then establish a series of higher lows, with the Nasdaq following. He also wants sentiment to wash out, citing inverse ETF volume and elevated vol-target positioning as signs it has not happened yet.
“I still believe that tech has to lead... I'm not ready to add risk yet. I would like to see semis bottom out. That's been the ideal leadership for the market.”at 20:41
Equal-weight S&P 500 is a rates trade in disguise, so a broader selloff than tech looks likely.
Pies is worried about the equal-weight S&P 500 because its strength is a rates trade in disguise. Falling yields have supported it, and yields in tech stocks have started to correlate with each other. He thinks the room for yields to keep supporting the equal-weight index is exhausted. When that support rolls out, he expects a broader-based selloff beyond tech.
“I am actually worried about the equal weight S and P 500 here because this is just a rates trade in disguise... we've had as much support out of falling yields as we can get.”at 22:19
S&P 500 likely higher by year-end, reaching 8,000, after a choppy near-term window.
Pies expects the S&P 500 to be higher on December 31 and thinks it still has a good chance of hitting 8,000. He expects the next two weeks to be choppy because of a cluster of events (lab fundraising, the Fed meeting, midterms, earnings) that paralyze institutional investors, plus negative year-end seasonality from mutual fund tax-loss selling. He views these near-term factors as temporary and expects most of them to produce positive market reactions, so he sees the current window of weakness as a time to put money to work.
“I think if you wake you up at the end of the year on December 31, we're gonna be higher. Good chance that we're still gonna hit 8,000 on the S and P 500, but the next ten days, two weeks, likely to be choppy.”at 43:40
Forward P/E already corrected about 20%; a 25-26% multiple correction is unlikely, so downside is limited.
Pies argues the market's forward P/E has already fallen about 20%, which he sees as the most encouraging part of the picture. Calling for much more downside would require a 25-26% P/E correction. He notes such corrections have happened only four times in modern history (2000, 2008, 2020 during COVID, and 2022 when the Fed hiked 550 basis points), and he does not think the current environment resembles those episodes.
“the big positive that sticks out to me is that PE ratio, [forward P/E] ratio is corrected 20% already. If you're calling for a lot more downside from here, you're calling for, like, a 25, 26% PE correction.”at 44:50
AI infrastructure & data centers
GPU rental rates keep rising and GPU availability is at new lows, so the AI story is intact.
Pies says the AI story is not over and that fears about it are easy to fade. His evidence is that GPU rental rates continue to push higher and that GPU availability is at new lows in his 314 index. He takes tight supply and rising rental prices as proof that compute demand is still outpacing supply.
“I don't think the AI story is over. I think that it's easy to fade those fears. We see GPU rental rates continuing to push higher. Availability, GPU availability is at new lows in our three fourteen index.”at 45:18
Combined annualized revenue of the two leading AI labs should reach $170-190B by year-end, up from $30B.
Pies projects that combined annual revenue run rate for the two labs will reach $170 billion to $190 billion by the end of the year, starting from $30 billion at the beginning of the year. He calls this huge growth and uses it as evidence that the AI investment story is intact. The transcript does not name the two labs.
“I think lab ARR when we get to the end of the year combined for the two labs is gonna be, you know, one seventy to one ninety starting the year at 30,000,000,000. That's huge growth. I think it's intact.”at 45:31
Shows
- CNBC Closing Bell · 2 episodes
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