Closing Bell Overtime: Big Tech Faces Its Next Test 11/2/26

Apple

Across the shows: 29 speakers in other episodes, 14 bullish and 22 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Brenda Vingiello · Sand Hill Global AdvisorsBullish

  Siri AI is Apple's biggest opportunity to drive a long-term iPhone replacement cycle.

  Vingiello says Siri AI is still in beta and she has heard mixed feedback so far, but she thinks AI remains the biggest opportunity for Apple to spur a replacement cycle. The installed base of about 1.3 billion devices lacks the technology to use Siri AI. If the feature is compelling enough to get those users to upgrade, she says the monetary benefit to Apple could be even multiples of the iPhone 17 cycle.

  “I think for me, the biggest piece is really understanding AI and, you know, AI Siri is in the beta form... I think that remains the biggest opportunity for the company really to spur more of a replacement cycle over the long intermediate term.”at 28:14

• Amit Daryanani · Evercore ISIBullish

  Apple's iPhone and Mac demand look strong despite price rises, with margins above plan ex-tariff refunds.

  Daryanani says the iPhone numbers look pretty good, almost a billion dollars of upside even with only eight selling days left for the iPhone 18 Pro. Combined with the MacBook strength, there appears to be very limited demand destruction despite higher prices, which he calls a net positive. Adjusting for the tariff benefit, gross margin still came in roughly 40 to 50 basis points better than expected. He flagged services as a bit weaker and said the December guide will show whether its roughly 10% growth can hold.

  “The iPhone numbers look pretty good, almost a billion upside... it almost seems like there's very limited demand destruction with their hardware products despite having raised prices. That... That's probably a net positive for them.”at 33:07

• Brenda Vingiello · Sand Hill Global AdvisorsNeutral

  Apple looks expensive, but mid-teens revenue growth is strong; the stock needs next year's 10% growth outlook to prove too light.

  Brenda thinks Apple is still expensive, but she points to revenue growth that has risen to the mid-teens over the last twelve months, a clear break from the anemic top-line growth of prior years. She credits that growth, plus a pristine balance sheet that avoids the billions peers spend on AI infrastructure, with supporting the multiple. To move the stock materially higher, she says investors would need to learn the 10% revenue growth figure for next year is too conservative, and she doubts that will be revealed. She also suggests a Siri-driven upgrade cycle could help, but questions whether supply constraints would let Apple meet that demand.

  “I think it is [expensive], but I think if we look just as simply at revenue growth over the last twelve months for this company, it has been nicely in the mid teens... I think we need to learn that maybe that 10% revenue growth number for next year is too light.”at 37:04

• Amit Daryanani · Evercore ISIUncertain

  Apple's Siri AI currently earns nothing; a free-base, premium-tier model like iCloud could come later if it proves useful.

  Amit says Apple currently has no economics from Siri AI. The key question is whether Siri AI can be compelling enough to drive people to buy a new iPhone, which he calls the ultimate scenario. As Siri AI scales, he expects Apple to follow the iCloud model: offer a basic version free and charge premiums for more. He says the first step is a product that people want to use every day, and he thinks Siri has not reached that point yet.

  “There are none right now is maybe the real answer... I do think the model Apple is gonna look at is the iCloud model... Can I give you a base Siri AI for free and then charge you premiums the way I do for iCloud?”at 38:19

Palantir Technologies

Across the shows: 8 speakers in other episodes, 6 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• John McPeake · Rosenblatt SecuritiesBullish

  Palantir is a buy with a $260 target, about 60x forward EPS, and reasonable given its growth.

  McPeake says Palantir's revenue growth accelerated from 93% to 96%, and US commercial rose 148% year over year. The company returns about 50% of sales as free cash flow, so the EV-to-sales multiple is mathematically high but it is an earnings story. Even excluding operating leverage, the stock trades at well under one times its growth rate at his $260 target, which equals about 60 times one-year-out EPS. He also argues Palantir's platform is defensible as an arbiter of LLM functions with data privacy and sovereign AI.

  “if you look at the growth rate here, even excluding the leverage they're getting through the operating model, it's trading at well less than one times its growth rate at my target of $260”at 16:57

Oil & fuels

• Pippa Stevens · CNBC

  Oil's sharp drop on Iran talk looks unjustified, since the US and Iran remain far apart.

  Stevens says oil fell below $100 on reports of new Iranian negotiating powers and on Rubio's comments about a diplomatic route, which is a complete reversal from escalation a week earlier. But she notes neither side has achieved its objectives since the June MOU collapsed, and the two sides are still far apart, so the price action is hard to square with what is happening on the ground. She cites Goldman's range of $60 to $130 Brent for next year and the 50-day and 200-day moving averages as support levels, suggesting the market is betting on resolution or simply avoiding longs before the midterms.

  “this is a very big move today on very little sense that anything has actually changed. It seems The US and Iran are still very far apart.”at 5:33

• Pippa Stevens · CNBC

  Energy equities' upside is unclear now that the strong refining earnings catalyst has passed.

  Energy stocks had a strong week of reports, with refiners printing very large numbers, especially in downstream. But expectations were very elevated ahead of those reports, and the question now is whether those margins are as good as they get, and what mid-cycle refining margins are now being priced in. Stevens says it is unclear whether energy equities have more upside for now, since the earnings catalyst is in the rearview mirror, and Marathon's report is the next test.

  “unclear if there's more upside here for energy equities at least for the time being given that now the earnings catalyst is kind of in the rearview mirror.”at 6:09

US elections & politics

• Megan Cassella · CNBC

  Divided Congress means gridlock, with budget and debt-ceiling deadlines forcing only limited deals and possible shutdown risk.

  Megan expects gridlock to dominate if Democrats win one or both chambers. A Democratic House would gain oversight powers, and a Democratic Senate could confirm or reject nominees, including to the Supreme Court and the Federal Reserve. Democratic priorities include reversing Medicaid cuts, extending ACA tax credits and limiting presidential tariff authority, but the president keeps veto power. Deals are still possible: Republicans want tens of billions more for Iran war funding, which Democrats could trade for health-care wins. The December 11 budget deadline could produce only a short-term extension, setting up a possible shutdown in early next year, and the debt ceiling, expected to be hit next summer, should force both sides to deal. She notes analysts argue divided government is best for markets, but warns a big blue wave could spark fears about higher taxes by 2028. She also says it is unclear how either party would pay for its plans.

  “gridlock is expected to dominate, but there are gonna be some areas where the parties will have to work together.”at 41:37