Leslie Picker: latest market views

Summary

Leslie Picker is CNBC's Senior Banking and Finance Correspondent, covering Wall Street banks, private equity, hedge funds and IPOs, and previously reported for The New York Times and Bloomberg News.

Chorus has 5 views from Leslie Picker across 3 episodes on CNBC Closing Bell, Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box) and CNBC Power Lunch since October 26, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Anthropic.

Where they stand

Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.

• AnthropicBullish · October 26, 2026

What they talk about most

• Anthropic · 5

The latest views

Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.

• AnthropicUncertain

  Anthropic's compute costs and $895 billion of commitments make revenue-versus-expense growth the key IPO question.

  Picker reports Q3 revenue of $17 billion, up 1100% year over year but about 47% quarter over quarter. Operating income turned negative in Q3 after being positive in Q2, as compute and infrastructure costs nearly doubled to about $10 billion. Revenue per dollar of compute ticked down to 172 after peaking in Q2. Future commitments of about $895 billion, mostly compute, step up from about $5 billion in 2026 to $29 billion in 2027 and $44 billion in 2028. Picker says investors will ask whether top-line growth can keep pace and how much capital the IPO must raise.

  “the cost for compute and infrastructure nearly doubled... The key question investors will want to know is how their top line growth will keep pace with the growth in future expenses”at 27:26

  CNBC Closing Bell: Closing Bell: 11/2/26 · November 2, 2026

• AnthropicUncertain

  Anthropic's compute commitments may be the biggest claim on its large cash pile.

  Anthropic's S-1 shows about $112B in cash plus $19B in short-term investments as of June 30, more than Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia or Amazon. Against that sit $587B of long-term compute obligations, leases and fixed commitments running one to twenty years, plus a separate $245B tied to new and amended agreements. Picker concludes that compute, not cash, may be the largest claim on Anthropic's balance sheet. Some of those commitments are non-cancelable, so they will need future equity and debt raises and a path to profitability.

  “...compute obligations, leases and fixed commitments that span anywhere from one to twenty years. [Anthropic] said these amounted to $587,000,000,000 as of June 30 plus a separate $245,000,000,000 tied to new and amended agreements. So if cash is king, compute may be the biggest claim on the crown.”at 4:20

  Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Anthropic’s IPO Details, Building ‘The Sims,’ & the World Bank 10/27/26 · October 27, 2026

• AnthropicUncertain

  Anthropic's lockup schedule and index inclusion may offset each other, leaving the stock's trading unclear.

  The S-1 lists roughly two dozen lockup dates, from 27 days after the offering to about 365 days, with some tied to earnings. Picker expects a stair-step unlock similar to SpaceX's. Lockups usually pressure a stock as shares unlock. Fast-track index inclusion works the other way by growing the float and forcing index buying. Bankers line up lockups with likely index inclusion to balance the two, so Picker says it is unclear whether this will work for Anthropic as it did for SpaceX.

  “This idea that lockups tend to provide or produce some pressure on the stock, but then you also have index inclusion, that works the other way, whereas the float gets bigger,”at 6:00

  Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Anthropic’s IPO Details, Building ‘The Sims,’ & the World Bank 10/27/26 · October 27, 2026

• AnthropicUncertain

  A $1.5–2T Anthropic IPO valuation needs growth sustained over a long period.

  Anthropic's revenue growth slowed from about 60% to about 50%, though still very strong. Reports suggest a $1.5 to $2 trillion IPO valuation. Picker argues that to command that price, Anthropic must show growth can continue over a long period. This matters because its future non-cancelable compute obligations will eventually require equity and debt raises and a pathway to sustainable profitability.

  “in order to command, say, a 1.5 to $2,000,000,000,000 valuation as reports are out there suggesting, you're going to need to be able to show that that growth can continue over a long period of time.”at 9:00

  Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Anthropic’s IPO Details, Building ‘The Sims,’ & the World Bank 10/27/26 · October 27, 2026

• AnthropicBullish

  Anthropic's revenue per employee, up from about $1M, shows real AI-driven personnel efficiency.

  Picker highlights the filing's figures: about 5,300 employees and trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.6 million per employee, up from about $1 million a year earlier. Personnel costs were about $3.15 billion through June 30, roughly $600,000 per employee, a large gap versus revenue. She says this shows real efficiency, and that AI talent is highly compensated because of scarcity. She also notes the broader labor implications, since AI is changing personnel needs across the economy.

  “this is one company that's obviously demonstrated real efficiency as it pertains to personnel and we know that in an AI, personnel are very highly compensated to do the work that they do because there is such a scarcity there.”at 24:56

  CNBC Power Lunch: Previewing Big Tech Earnings, Anthropic IPO Announcement, Countdown to Midterms 10/26/26 · October 26, 2026

Shows

• CNBC Closing Bell · 1 episode
• Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box) · 1 episode
• CNBC Power Lunch · 1 episode