Closing Bell 10/9/26

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 18 speakers in other episodes, 18 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jeremy Siegel · WisdomTreeBullish

  Nvidia's 19x earnings multiple is reasonable given its 40-60% growth; prices are not wild.

  Nvidia and others are growing 40 to 60% yet trade at about 19 times earnings, which would not normally happen. Siegel argues investors are holding back because they doubt the boom's growth will last at 20 to 30%. He doesn't think these prices are wild, though the range of upside and downside outcomes has widened.

  “even though they're growing 40, 50, 60% here, are selling at 19 times earnings... I don't think these prices are wild.”at 10:13

Microsoft

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital ManagementBullish

  Microsoft's model-neutral AI offering makes customer usage stickier; she kept the stock despite prior negativity.

  Talkington was very negative on Microsoft but didn't sell and kept the stock. Microsoft went model-neutral, so users can run Claude, OpenAI, or any model they want. That makes usage much stickier. She says the CapEx is only good if big companies show ROI, and that is an open question.

  “Microsoft, which is, you know, I was really negative on. I didn't sell it. I kept it. People are using Cowork because all of a sudden, they went model neutral... now all of a sudden, that's much stickier.”at 13:27

OpenAI

Across the shows: 21 speakers in other episodes, 9 bullish and 27 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Lo Toney · Plexo CapitalBullish

  The OpenAI revenue gap looks like a gross-versus-net accounting issue, not lost customer demand.

  Lo Toney says the roughly $20 billion difference reflects reconciliation between gross and net revenue, not vanishing demand. Operating signals are encouraging: enterprise sales reportedly more than doubled since July. OpenRouter data suggests OpenAI reached equal spending share with Anthropic in September, and its advertising business is making progress. Clearer reconciliation is needed, and AI revenue must also be judged on growth and what remains after distribution and inference costs.

  “I don't see this disclosure as evidence that something is fundamentally wrong with OpenAI... that 20,000,000,000 difference doesn't mean 20,000,000,000 of customer demand just vanished and disappeared.”at 28:06

Anthropic

Across the shows: 19 speakers in other episodes, 8 bullish and 34 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Lo Toney · Plexo CapitalBullish

  Anthropic's enterprise focus, team, and cost-efficient approach made it a compelling investment.

  Plexo invested in Anthropic after getting direct access and a better look than at OpenAI. Anthropic's focus on enterprise, its team, and Dario's structured approach to models that use data more efficiently and need less compute were compelling. Cost was going to be a factor, and at an $18 billion valuation it was the firm's most expensive deal, which needed a trillion-dollar exit to make a venture return.

  “we liked Anthropic's focus on the enterprise. We liked the team. We could tell that cost was gonna be a factor. And at that time, we thought Dario's plan of focusing on a more structured approach”at 30:39

Bitcoin

Across the shows: 8 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Mackenzie Sigalos · CNBCBearish

  Bitcoin's rebound looks fragile: higher yields, a strong dollar, and $100 oil are weighing on it.

  Sigalos notes Bitcoin is trading near $82,000, about 34% below its record above $126,000 a year ago. The earlier rally rested on a crypto-friendly Washington, a strategic Bitcoin reserve, and strong spot ETF buying. Today the backdrop has reversed. Higher Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and oil above $100 are weighing on risk assets. The near-term pressure is technical: ETF flows are net negative for the week, and Thursday's sell-off triggered over $1 billion in crypto liquidations. Bitcoin only partly recovered that ground today.

  “Higher treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and oil above a $100 are all weighing on risk assets.”at 42:22

US Treasuries & yields

• Jeremy Siegel · WisdomTree

  Long bonds look attractive at today's real rates, which could hedge against stock-market volatility.

  Real rates have not been this high in 25 years, so Siegel is starting to look at bonds. Given how wide the range of economic outcomes is, he sees bonds as a hedge alongside lagging value stocks, though a hedge is always painful when the trend keeps running.

  “I'm beginning to look at bonds and say at these rates, especially these real rates that I have not seen for twenty five years, this might be a hedge”at 5:54

• Jeremy Siegel · WisdomTree

  If the AI bubble bursts, interest rates will fall sharply, cushioning cyclical value stocks.

  An AI bust would hurt AI and derivative stocks, but Siegel argues it would push interest rates way down. That would counterbalance pressure on the value and cyclical sectors, which have been squeezed by higher real rates. This is why he sees diversification into bonds or cyclicals as important.

  “If the AI bubble burst, I think interest rates are going way down. And believe it or not, I think, although it'll certainly hurt AI and derivative stocks, that downward movement interest rates will have a counterbalance”at 9:01

• Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  High rates generate huge household investment income, and that money is recycled partly into equities.

  Higher rates mean higher investment income for American households, at least $10 trillion a year according to Lee. That income has to be recycled, and not all of it will go back into bonds. Some of it flows into equities, which offsets the competition from higher-yielding bonds and TIPS.

  “Higher rates is also higher investment income for American households... It's at least 10,000,000,000,000 a year of investment income now being generated because of high rates. That does have to get recycled.”at 17:28

AI: overall outlook

• Jeremy Siegel · WisdomTree

  The AI growth trade remains intact; the AI train keeps moving despite bumps like the OpenAI revenue scare.

  Siegel says the economic growth prospects from the AI revolution are as intact this week as last week and the week before. Little has changed in the market's direction, and the OpenAI revenue report was a bump. Rumors will keep coming, as they did with DeepSeek two years ago, but the AI train is not slowing down.

  “Positive things are hap... I mean, the march on AI is still on and not going away.”at 3:58

• Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  Q3 earnings and the midterms should restore confidence in AI stocks and ease political pressure on them.

  Lee says the market is a coiled spring. Investors he met on the road since September 28 are skeptical and see an AI bubble. Setbacks in AI funding or pulled IPOs would trigger risk-off. He expects third-quarter earnings to restore confidence in AI. He thinks the midterms are a clearing event that relieves political pressure on AI stocks, even if Democrats take the Senate.

  “I'm gonna be in a camp that third quarter earnings is gonna restore the confidence of AI. And similarly, I think the midterms are a clearing event of sorts”at 15:13

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Jeremy Siegel · WisdomTree

  Today's market concentration isn't a 2000-style bubble; leaders have real earnings and far lower P/E ratios.

  Siegel compares the current narrowing of the S&P 500 to 1998-2000 and notes real rates are similarly high. The key difference is that today's dominant companies have strong earnings, so their P/E ratios have fallen over the last six months. In 1998-2000 earnings were scarce and P/Es were 100 to 200, versus 20 to 30 today. Concentration and real rates are similar, but the companies are much sounder.

  “The big difference, of course, is that these are real companies with earnings that are so great that the PE ratio of many of them have actually gone down over the last six months”at 7:40

• Lo Toney · Plexo Capital

  AI stocks are priced for perfection, so a revenue-number confusion can trigger a sharp sell-off.

  OpenAI and Anthropic are central to expectations supporting the entire AI buildout, and some argue the global economy. Stocks are priced for exceptional execution and are priced to perfection. Confusion over a revenue number can trigger a sharp reaction, so if OpenAI even hints at a sneeze, the market might catch a cold.

  “They've really become central to the expectations supporting the entire AI AI build out... stocks are pretty much priced for exceptional execution, they're priced to perfection.”at 29:27

Earnings & corporate profits

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital Management

  Micron and Nvidia alone will drive 40% of S&P 500 earnings growth in 2027.

  Earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2027 is concentrated in technology. Talkington says Micron and Nvidia alone will contribute 40% of that growth. Earnings are the main reason people are sanguine about the market, and tech is where the excitement and earnings growth are happening.

  “Micron and Nvidia alone are gonna contribute 40% to their earnings growth of the S and P. So 2027 is right upon us.”at 11:56

• Keith Lerner · Truist Advisory Services

  Corporate margins keep improving through repeated shocks, and 2027 earnings estimates are starting to rise.

  Lerner says companies have absorbed one shock after another and kept improving margins, with forward estimates continuing to move higher. He points to 2027 estimates as the signal to watch. They are now in focus and are moving up instead of following the usual pattern of downward revisions. He takes this as support for the view that the bull market is intact and that pullbacks will be shallow rather than a straight-line decline.

  “Over and over again, our companies have gone through one shock after another, and they have continued to improve as far as margins, and we continue to see forward estimates move higher. ...we're starting to see those estimates move up instead of the normal move, which is typically down.”at 46:12

US stock market outlook

• Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  Equities are a coiled spring; if rates fall, pressure eases and P/E multiples can expand.

  Record commercial shorts and an extended move in rates suggest rates are near a peak. High rates are weakening capital demand because not everyone can issue debt at these levels. If rates fall, possibly driven by energy prices, that would take pressure off stocks and let P/E ratios expand. He concedes that if rates stay high, they keep competing with stocks.

  “I think yesterday and today are examples of why this market is a coiled spring... if rates actually fall... that's actually gonna take a lot of the pressure off stocks, and I think PEs can expand.”at 14:38

• Keith Lerner · Truist Advisory Services

  The bull market still deserves the benefit of the doubt; the AI-led rally should keep grinding higher.

  Lerner argues the evidence still favours this bull market. Historically there have been 11 bull markets since 1950, and five of the six that reached four years old continued to gain. Fundamentally, valuations have reset, earnings remain strong, and the primary trend is still up, though he flags some divergences below the surface. His base case is continued economic growth and an intact AI theme, which he sees as the key to the bull market. He says the market should stay tech-led over the next year and that rising rates don't change this much. He notes rates have been near 5.35% and 5.30%, and could move higher, but says that's still manageable given the 1990s, when rates were near 6.5%. He adds that if rates stabilize, the market can keep powering through, though pullbacks won't be a straight line.

  “As we look at the way of the evidence, it still suggests we should still give this bull market the benefit of the doubt.”at 44:32

Oil & fuels

• Jeremy Siegel · WisdomTree

  Easing Russia sanctions and the diesel price cut are a short-term band-aid, not a permanent fix.

  Siegel says futures showed a 20 cent per gallon diesel reduction that helps by 4 or 5%. But the spokesman on the earlier show said it covers only two or three days of diesel, and supply is supposed to increase. Siegel says it is not a permanent solution, and he is unhappy about easing sanctions on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine.

  “I did see that it was a 20¢ per gallon reduction in the futures market in diesel... which helps four or 5%. ...It's not a permanent solution at all. It's sort of a short term band aid.”at 3:08

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital Management

  AI capex will only pay off if big companies show returns; a lot has been wasted so far.

  Talkington says it depends on whether companies monetize the CapEx. Dell and other recipients are getting huge sums, and if the spending earns a return on capital it was a good spend. She admits a lot of it has been wasted. Investors won't know for a couple of years, and if returns don't show up, these stocks will fall. She thinks that is still multiple innings away.

  “Well, it depends if they monetize the CapEx... if the CapEx ends up having, you know, return on capital, then, yes, this was a good spend. We know a lot of it has been wasted... we're not gonna find this out for, I think, a couple of years”at 13:04

Credit markets

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital Management

  Seven-year investment-grade corporates and munis yield well over stocks' dividends, so she is adding them.

  Seven-year investment-grade corporates yield over 6%, and munis for top-bracket investors yield over 7%. Dividend stocks yield 4 to 5%, so bonds look more attractive. About $8 trillion in money markets on the sidelines could move into longer-duration fixed income. Her firm is allocating into seven- and eight-year corporates and munis because the returns carry little risk.

  “we're looking at a seven year investment grade corporates. You can get over 6% for seven years. And then on the muni side, if you're in the highest tax bracket... you're over 7%.”at 18:12

AI pricing & unit economics

• Lo Toney · Plexo Capital

  Market should judge AI margins on cost per task, not cost per token, and frontier price cuts expand demand.

  Open-weight and frontier models need similar infrastructure, so compute costs are the same. Margins depend on how token costs are structured. Open-weight models may need more tokens to complete a task, so cost per task completed is the better measure. Frontier labs cut prices when the next generation arrives, which lets the market expand to more users and volume, a Jevons effect. Margin transparency is needed, and the margin worry for Anthropic and OpenAI as they go public is warranted.

  “all tokens are not created equal. And I think what we're seeing the market move towards is instead of cost per token, cost per task completed”at 33:24

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Oliver Renick · CNBC

  Options traders are piling into tech puts as stock-bond correlation turns positive, so falling yields may be needed for stocks.

  Renick reads the options market as bearish on tech while bond traders are buying calls. Put contracts on QQQ are at their biggest build relative to calls since June, and traders bought puts on the semiconductor ETF SMH at three times the call volume on above-average volume. Bond-proxy trades are bullish: calls on TLT ran three to one over puts, and rate-sensitive utilities saw calls at two to one. He argues the charts make sense of this. The correlation between the 10-year yield and the Nasdaq is currently +0.8, so higher stocks would require lower yields. He concludes the options message this week is to think twice before expecting stocks to rise while yields are still elevated.

  “Tech bears getting aggressive just when yields finally stop going up. ... The correlation between the ten year yield and the Nasdaq is currently positive point eight.”at 41:34

Stablecoins & crypto policy

• Mackenzie Sigalos · CNBC

  The Clarity Act has stalled, so odds of passage this year look increasingly slim.

  Sigalos says the Clarity Act failed to advance in the Senate last month. Although it could technically return, she judges the odds of passage this year to be increasingly slim. She treats the stalled bill as one of the industry's biggest policy hopes being shelved, which weighs on the crypto trade alongside the macro headwinds.

  “the odds of passage this year now look increasingly slim.”at 42:32