Closing Bell Overtime: Markets Brace for Election Results 11/3/26

Advanced Micro Devices

Across the shows: 6 speakers in other episodes, 5 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stacy Rasgon · Bernstein ResearchBullish

  AMD's data center business is over-delivering, with guidance above consensus, so client weakness is manageable.

  Data center revenue came in about $300 million above the street and next-quarter revenue guidance is well above consensus, so the data center business is over-delivering. Client revenue was a little light, but it is a much smaller share of AMD's revenue than at Intel (upper teens versus nearly half), so it is easier to absorb. More data center drivers are ramping, including server CPU strength from the agentic CPU story and the MI450 Helios ramp starting in Q4 and driving growth into next year. Gross margin trajectory looks okay.

  “The data center business, which is what everybody really cares about, is really over delivering. They came in something like $300,000,000 above the street.”at 21:17

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  AMD's data center business is impressive; it is a distant but solid number two that can justify much higher valuations.

  Seymour says AMD started taking share from Intel in the data center, and that data center story is impressive. AMD is expected to approach about $100 billion in revenue in a couple of years, and he argues it is a very solid number two in data center even though it is distant from Nvidia. He says the buy-side whisper was significantly better than the sell-side. He argues the street has no problem valuing it at about 25x 2028 numbers, which implies roughly $650 a share.

  “AMD has a very distant number two, but a very solid number two, I think in a data center.”at 40:53

McDonald's

Across the shows: 5 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Peter Saleh · BTIGBullish

  McDonald's pulling back from steep discounts toward quality is good for it; the value war is ending.

  Saleh says McDonald's has pulled back from steep discounts over the summer and is positioning toward quality. He believes this will be the industry's message going forward and is good for both the sector and McDonald's. He thinks the value war is slowly ending and that no one has won it. He notes steep discounts have not driven incremental traffic for anyone. Sales trends are improving: July and August were weak, September improved, and October shows sequential improvement in same-store sales, though not as strong as September.

  “I don't think discounts are going away, but I think those steep, steep discounts and that battle, that value war, I think is slowly coming to an end.”at 44:17

• Peter Saleh · BTIGBearish

  McDonald's store remodel program is too costly for franchisees; it won't move forward in its current form.

  Saleh says McDonald's is asking franchisees to remodel stores at about $1.2 to $1.3 million each. That is roughly 1.7 times the annual cash flow of a store, versus 1.2 times for the prior remodel, so it is significantly more expensive for franchisees. He says the returns have not been proven. He thinks the program will not move forward as currently structured. It would need more testing, value engineering to lower costs, and more contribution from corporate McDonald's to align franchisees. He calls the current level of franchisee friction too much.

  “What McDonald's is essentially asking them to do is remodel their stores. This remodel costs about [$1.2 to $1.3 million]. In essence, it's about 1.7 times the annual cash flow of a McDonald's store.”at 45:50

Intel

Across the shows: 16 speakers in other episodes, 4 bullish and 13 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stacy Rasgon · Bernstein ResearchBearish

  Intel faces heavy PC-client exposure and manufacturing shortfalls, leaving it unable to meet demand.

  Intel had very poor client revenue as PC markets were under pressure from memory dynamics, and client was almost half its revenue in the quarter. Its manufacturing footprint is still off-site, so it has trouble producing enough revenue to supply demand. It also had an Israel issue that cost data center revenue. Contrasts this with AMD, whose client exposure is much smaller and whose data center drivers are stronger.

  “Intel's manufacturing footprint right now is still a little off-site. And so they're having a hard time getting the revenue to supply the demand.”at 22:48

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Phil Camporeale · J.P. Morgan Wealth Management

  Hyperscalers are a buying opportunity: cloud growth strong, valuations no longer premium, free-cash-flow fears overblown.

  Still bullish on the hyperscaler trade and sees the selloff as a buying opportunity. Cites cloud revenue growth as the core reason hyperscalers are well positioned. Says the four big hyperscalers now trade in line with the S&P 500 for the first time in about a decade, so investors no longer pay a premium. Argues that uncertainty over free cash flow is overblown and that hyperscalers get back to positive free cash flow sooner, which should expand their multiples. Notes the group is less levered than other names hurt by capital raises.

  “So we would take this, the hyper scalar trade. We still like it. We still believe that it's a buying opportunity here.”at 5:00

• Eamon Javers · CNBC

  Public opposition to data centers is moving faster than any issue politicians have seen, so controls are likely.

  Political professionals in Washington say public opinion on data centers has shifted against the tech industry faster and more dramatically than on any other issue they have seen. Even though the president says every community should build one, politicians nationwide are watching this same velocity data and will at least nominally sign on to data center control measures if they pass. Says it is still unclear how much of this is campaign rhetoric versus a lasting governing principle, and that the outcome will play out state by state.

  “no other issue have they seen move as fast and dramatically as they have public opinion on data centers moving against the tech industry.”at 14:33

• Stacy Rasgon · Bernstein Research

  Financing worries are overdone; the companies actually spending on AI buildouts do not seem worried.

  AMD's named customers gave it warrants for the 2027 ramps, and the warrants are worth roughly what the parts being sold are worth, so he is not worried about AMD's own trajectory being financed. For the broader universe, the numbers have become very large, so financing is a real concern that will play out over the next several quarters as the buildouts happen. Argues investors are the only ones really worried, while the companies doing the spending and deploying do not seem terribly worried.

  “The only ones that really seem to be worried at this point are investors. The companies that are... actually doing the spending and doing the deployment... do not seem terribly worried at this point.”at 25:50

• Chris Crosby · Compass Datacenters

  Local data center opposition is legitimate; the industry must address it, and better players will push out the bad ones.

  Crosby says local opposition to data centers is legitimate, even though adversaries have amplified it. He argues the industry has to address those concerns itself. He compares it to fracking, where better operators raised standards and pushed out the wildcatters who were hurting communities, and says the same process will play out in data centers.

  “Those are legitimate local concerns. And we have to address those as an industry. I think it's the growth of our industry. It's no different than what's happened in other forms in the energy space.”at 36:33

US stock market outlook

• Phil Camporeale · J.P. Morgan Wealth Management

  Post-midterm periods have been reliably positive since 1950, setting up a strong fourth quarter.

  Argues the midterm election is a clearing event that could set up a strong fourth quarter. Supports this with a historical pattern: every six, nine and twelve month period after a midterm since 1950 has been positive, across Republican, Democratic and split outcomes. Frames the seasonal pattern as an argument against worrying about selling into the year-end rally.

  “So since 1950, every six month, nine month, and twelve month period after a midterm has been positive. That's a lot of red, that's a lot of blue, and that's a lot of purple. I think this clearing event could be a really nice setup into the fourth quarter.”at 8:55

US Treasuries & yields

• Phil Camporeale · J.P. Morgan Wealth Management

  Ten-year yield below 5% supports AI hyperscalers; tightening financial conditions is the main risk.

  Main worry is continued tightening of financial conditions just as hyperscalers must issue large amounts of debt to fund capex. Offsetting that, the ten-year Treasury yield sitting below 5% is a supportive backdrop in which hyperscalers can succeed. Treats the yield level as the key variable for the AI capex funding story.

  “I think that tightening of financial conditions keeps us up at night. But, again, the fact that the ten year note is below 5%, that's an environment where these hyperscalers can succeed.”at 10:20

AI chips & semiconductors

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Chip stocks must bounce for the whole market to bounce; this semi rally is the market's greatest test in three years.

  Seymour argues the broader market cannot convincingly bounce until semiconductors do. He says this is the greatest test of the semi rally in three years, since Liberation Day does not count and the 200-day test has not really happened. He sees an opportunity in chips but is not sure investors must buy them now. He would wait a few weeks to see whether the bounce holds.

  “We have to see semiconductors bounce in order for the whole market to actually convincingly bounce. This is the greatest test of the semi rally in three years, I think.”at 41:34